December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

The snowpack on central Vancouver Island is about as bad as it gets right now. Barely an inch of SWE at 4700ft

[TacomaWaWx]

Would be nice to get a white Christmas...but that’s 9 days away. We will see what it’s showing 2-3 days before. Overall this is the most interesting things have looked since late October though. Decent amount of rain and mountain snow on the way with possible colder temps in the long range.

[Phil]

Maybe we should ask Phil?

Lol. Tbh, this is probably the wettest short term stretch of the entire winter right here. This zonal pattern is going to die a quick death and stay dead for a long time starting late this month.

[Deweydog]

Analog, 1969....speaking of Folger's. Watched "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood" last night

Watched a good chunk of The Dark Knight last night on TBS. Watched it in the theater in the summer of 2008...

[TacomaWaWx]

That map is showing a weekly average though. If a week averages 5 or 6 degrees below normal, it is a pretty good bet that several of the days are much colder than that given that overall pattern.

It’s a long ways out still...no telling how cold it will actually be this far out..especially on a weekly averages map.

[ShawniganLake]

[TT-SEA]

[The Swamp]

Is it a lock yet?

[Phil]

Tim is trollololing y’all. Clearly a pattern change towards the end of week two.

 

Still technically “split flow” upstream but that doesn’t prevent it from getting cold.

 

[FroYoBro]

Is it a lock yet?

We are definitely going to see some weather in the future.

[Phil]

We did it! With 270 as of 12/17, a space age record has been set for spotless days in a year, passing the old record of 268, set in 2008. Also running a 33 day spotless streak at the moment.

 

Could make a run a 280+ before 2019 comes to a close.

[Guest CulverJosh]

N.o W.ay it doesn’t S.now

 

Words of wisdom from my buddy in regards to Xmas.

[MossMan]

Split Flow mania!

[Winterdog]

I think most of our weather has happened already. Sure, there will be some weather later but not as much as before. Some don’t like having any weather.. not me. I like lots of weather and I like it to be happening now.

[TT-SEA]

Tim is trollololing y’all. Clearly a pattern change towards the end of week two.

 

Still technically “split flow” upstream but that doesn’t prevent it from getting cold.

 

 

 

Really not trolling.   Just saw the post about the EPS and looked up the 10-15 day map.  

 

Still looks like split flow to me... I am not into analyzing and extrapolating beyond day 15.    

 

I am not going to sugar coat it and I am not desperate for lowland snow.   If it comes then I will enjoy it... if not then that is fine too.

[Phil]

And the EPS control run goes to crazy places again.

 

A bit less blocky this time, but teases a massive airmass at the border. And that bitter cold will likely enter the US at some point next month..question is where?

 

[Deweydog]

I think most of our weather has happened already. Sure, there will be some weather later but not as much as before. Some don’t like having any weather.. not me. I like lots of weather and I like it to be happening now.

This is my favorite post in weeks!

[Deweydog]

Talking to some NWS folks out of Sand Point. There was a serious suggestion that the forum get locked down to educated mets and people who are a bit more tame in what they share. I hope some of you realize that sharing these cold maps are not only misinterpreted, dangerous to the public, and annoying for most of us who want to have a serious discussion about realistic and not cold solutions.

 

To the the mets, retired or not, let us know which maps we should remove. DM me if you don’t want it public.

This is clearly conflicting when we have a legit NWS employee cold trolling the forum through an extremely credible surrogate.

[Phil]

[jakeinthevalley]

This is clearly conflicting when we have a legit NWS employee cold trolling the forum through an extremely credible surrogate.

And an old fishing buddy, to boot!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

And the EPS control run goes to crazy places again.

 

A bit less blocky this time, but teases a massive airmass at the border. And that bitter cold will likely enter the US at some point next month..question is where?

 

Back to back great EURO long range control runs. That's a mammoth pool of Vodka Arctic air about to penetrate the CONUS. January here we come!

[Phil]

A handful of EPS members have -46C to -48C 850mb temperatures over Baffin Island by D15. Lol.

 

Has -50C ever happened there before mid-Jan? D*mn.

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

Back to back great EURO long range control runs. That's a mammoth pool of Vodka Arctic air about to penetrate the CONUS. January here we come!

Sometimes that control run is a harbinger of changes coming.

 

Do I need to shout from the rooftops with excitement? Not sure what is expected when analyzing the long range. Only unbridled excitement?

[Deweydog]

I had an awaking to the reality of our weather enthusiasm and the damage it causes to the community when we don’t both stay grounded and show deference to the proper tools that real mets use. So when people share maps with blues and purples, without input and interpretation by trained professionals, they are putting out dangerous information that can put the reputation and credibility of our Weather Service at risk.

 

So this season I promised that I would voice these concerns in exchange to get a few Sand Point employees to chime in. I won’t ban DJ or SnowWiz, but I will send cease and desist letters if this continues.

 

Tell those Sand Point sons of ******* THIS IS MY HOUSE!!! Taste the rainbow motherf*ckers! BOOOM SHAKALAKA!!!

 

GO HAWKS!!!

[TacomaWaWx]

Well this is certainly an interesting development for TWF.

[Phil]

Back to back great EURO long range control runs. That's a mammoth pool of Vodka Arctic air about to penetrate the CONUS. January here we come!

I don’t want to say too much..I’ve been burned repeatedly for predicting cold Januaries out there in the past.

 

But man, this one seems to have as good a chance as any as far as I’m aware. That doesn’t mean it will happen. Too much vortex could ruin it. But it’s a real possibility for once.

[SouthHillFrosty]

#freesnowwiz #freedj

[TacomaWaWx]

I had an awaking to the reality of our weather enthusiasm and the damage it causes to the community when we don’t both stay grounded and show deference to the proper tools that real mets use. So when people share maps with blues and purples, without input and interpretation by trained professionals, they are putting out dangerous information that can put the reputation and credibility of our Weather Service at risk.

So this season I promised that I would voice these concerns in exchange to get a few Sand Point employees to chime in. I won’t ban DJ or SnowWiz, but I will send cease and desist letters if this continues.

I honestly had no idea a few weather weenies posting cold anomaly maps was such a big deal. Didn’t realize that many people payed attention to this forum.

[TT-SEA]

I honestly had no idea a few weather weenies posting cold anomaly maps was such a big deal. Didn’t realize that many people payed attention to this forum.

 

That post was dripping with sarcasm.

[TacomaWaWx]

That post was dripping with sarcasm.

sometimes y’all make it really hard to tell. Usually I can but not that time.

[Deweydog]

We might need to lock down on the football talk as I don’t want us partaking in a blood sport that exploits the oppressed for the entertainment of the colonizer in an heterosexualized display of patriarchal norms.

 

It’s nearly 2020 and we should be progressing and not regressing.

GO NINERS!

[Prairiedog]

My insider can beat up your insider. Lol.

Never trust whistleblowers esp at the NWS. Let the AR good times roll. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Front Ranger]

Lol. Tbh, this is probably the wettest short term stretch of the entire winter right here. This zonal pattern is going to die a quick death and stay dead for a long time starting late this month.

 

Some genius posted this in his winter outlook:

 

"Precipitation is highly unpredictable, but the west coast should see extended dry periods punctuated by heavy rain/snow events and strong storms."

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Sometimes that control run is a harbinger of changes coming.

 

Do I need to shout from the rooftops with excitement? Not sure what is expected when analyzing the long range. Only unbridled excitement?

Be cautiously optimistic as DJ would say.

[Front Ranger]

Split flow!

 

 

It's stuck. Not always great at picking up pattern changes...

 

Does appear to slowly be improving, though.

[Phil]

sometimes y’all make it really hard to tell. Usually I can but not that time.

I’ve missed some obvious ones reading the first sentence of a post then skimming thru the rest. I’m sure I’ve done already today.

[ShawniganLake]

And the EPS control run goes to crazy places again.

 

A bit less blocky this time, but teases a massive airmass at the border. And that bitter cold will likely enter the US at some point next month..question is where?

 

I approve this pattern.

I think the big question is. Should I buy new winter tires or hold off till next year.

[MossMan]

This is going to put Jan 1950 to shame.

 

Buckle up!