December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The clown range EPS control run says it’s a comin’.

 

About to send the polar vortex crashing right into the PNW with a moat of blocking surrounding it. Lolz.

 

Hmmmmmm now that's more like it. That's a ton of vodka cold air!

[MossMan]

This run is so close to being mega cold. With PNA tanking I suspect models the next few days will trend away from the Aleutian energy.

Low solar neutral Niño Niña might actually pay off!

[Front Ranger]

This run is so close to being mega cold. With PNA tanking I suspect models the next few days will trend away from the Aleutian energy.

 

Doesn't it work the other way, though? The PNA chart is based on what the models are showing.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

If that actually happened it would be an all-timer. That kind of blocking would be difficult to pull off, but with the ongoing solar minimum, I suppose anything is possible.

As in January 1950?

[Timmy]

This gfs run is more similar to the 00z last night. That’s good

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The EPS mean might look iffy, but there are many ensemble members with awesome looking solutions as we approach New Years.

 

Changes are afoot. Lots of folks across the country are gonna enter the deep freeze. I know I keep saying this but it’s coming.

Yeah, I agree with you.

[Front Ranger]

The often ignored CMC is actually ahead of the GFS on the 90 day average

 

I vow to pay more attention to the little guy.

 

EDIT: Speaking of the Canadian. Wow, much stronger storm than the GFS later this week.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

It is. I just ordered socks off Amazon. Cold enough to wear socks! Sh*t is about to get really real.

Hopefully you got wool socks!

[Blizzard777]

Light rain snow mix on the hill In Puyallup

Nice

[Front Ranger]

That's some serious cold building in the Arctic by day 10. Now to just dislodge it towards us...

[Timmy]

That's some serious cold building in the Arctic by day 10. Now to just dislodge it towards us...

I have a good friend at the nws, he just emailed me and said the -wpo +- the +pdo average wavetrain will not allow until we undergo bomb SSW over Australia.

[Blizzard777]

Weather page count about to be activated!!!

 

36* here with a low of 34*

[Timmy]

Still plenty of time for things to trend better!

 

Or worse!

 

Or stay the same, the choice is yours.

[MossMan]

Still plenty of time for things to trend better!

 

Or worse!

 

Or stay the same, the choice is yours.

I choose the first one!

[Gradient Keeper]

La-la land/Clown Range GFS MEGA BLOCK develops!

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow 465dam 500mb heights Hudson's Bay vortex

[luvssnow_spokane]

[FroYoBro]

I don’t see any valley snow.

 

 

Josh isn’t getting away with this one!

[Timmy]

Quite the difference over the Pacific on the 12z GFS in the LR.

that’s a purdy block

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEM BURIES the cascades with boatloads and sh*tloads of snow.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Ensembles improved another notch or two.

[Omegaraptor]

P18 in the clown range dips to -2°F 2m temp at Portland with a -21°C 850hpa temp.

[MossMan]

This place is about to get busy...

[ShawniganLake]

P18 in the clown range dips to -2°F 2m temp at Portland with a -21°C 850hpa temp.

Yea. But how much snow

[Requiem]

I just hope the AR verifies. At this point it looks like at least one portion of the NW will get hammered.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

 

Some members getting closer to the magic -8 ball after Christmas.  Getting better...

[Deweydog]

Yea. But how much snow

Exactly.

[TacomaWaWx]

This place is about to get busy...

Maybe if things keep looking more and more improved over the next few days. Still a lot of uncertainty...im cautiously optimistic...looks good currently but we all know how fast LR models can change.

[Weiner Warrior]

I'm calling for 1 inch

[MossMan]

Exactly.

December 2009 redux!

[Requiem]

EURO looks very similar so far-- maybe actually a tad south.

[Deweydog]

December 2009 redux!

Already some pretty convincing signs this blast or blasts will simply be too cold for snow.

[Timmy Supercell]

Having some nice frozen frog and mid-20's here, but appears to be thinning out some at the moment.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF

 

Day 3

 

 

Day 4

[ShawniganLake]

EURO looks very similar so far-- maybe actually a tad south.

Probably the easiest way for Portland to miss out on this prolonged heavy rain event would be for an area of cyclogenesis to temporarily lift the focus of the rainfall further north. You may have to root against any windstorm potential.

[Omegaraptor]

Portland hasn’t seen a 7” or more rainfall month since March 2017. Could this finally break the streak?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

 

 

Day 6

 

PDX up to 5.5" at 11 PM Saturday

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Model Verification

There is a reason why we call the ECMWF(EURO) the "King"

 

Ryan Maue‏Verified account @RyanMaue 8 hours ago

Over the past 30-90 days, ECMWF model skill has been particularly excellent 0.93 - 0.94 The Euro remains king heading into the 2020s.

 

The often ignored CMC is actually ahead of the GFS on the 90 day average

Usually the GFS is always ahead of the GEM. Not a good sign for the GFS.

[MossMan]

Getting a report from a friend in the Oso area that snowflakes are falling there!