Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Timmy Supercell]

Now the question is, how many of the fires are natural. There's arsonists in Australia.

 

https://abcnews.go.com/International/24-australians-arrested-deliberately-setting-fires-season/story?id=68108272

[Phil]

Ensembles are not as good though, that is true Tim. I think I would rather see a mediocre operational run and improving ensembles.

They’re different models technically.

[BLI snowman]

Hopefully tonight's Euro doesn't show an antifreeze for you 

 

The Euro is a clueless puppy, scared and looking for its way in the dark as it nervously craps on its own tail. The alpha's scent is far off in the distance, getting closer but still miles away.

[Front Ranger]

The cold is pretty close to a lock at this point.

 

The thing about the arctic front is that it's been apparent for 5+ days already on the GFS. On the rare occasions where we do see dramatic cold fronts, they tend to be picked up pretty early on at least one major model and carried continuously into the home stretch like we are seeing now.

 

On the other hand, you have Dewey's teleconnection concerns...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A January 2005 redux is definitely still on the table...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

On the other hand, you have Dewey's teleconnection concerns...

 

The operational built some really high heights into Alaska in the mid/long range. 

[TT-SEA]

A January 2005 redux is definitely still on the table...

 

 

I am not sure that is possible with all of the model improvements since then.

[Deweydog]

On the other hand, you have Dewey's teleconnection concerns...

Justice is blind.

[BLI snowman]

On the other hand, you have Dewey's teleconnection concerns...

 

Dewey's uncle Thomas E. Dewey famously lost the 1948 Presidential election after he promised a warm winter in the PNW.

 

I'd be concerned if he wasn't concerned, at this point.

[Phil]

This one will be Portland centric snowfall wise.

 

La la lock it up.

[Requiem]

This.

 

There’s almost always a last minute deepening/northward trend with storms on the GFS. At least that’s my experience in recent years.

Helps that this one isn’t rapidly strengthening as it comes in. My bet is that it meanders offshore for a while.

[Front Ranger]

The operational built some really high heights into Alaska in the mid/long range. 

 

It did. Although many of the GFS's colder runs have not quite had the typical -EPO block profile that usually lead to the true Arctic intrusions. The 18z did eventually get there, but was already quite cold in the PNW by that time.

[ShawniganLake]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am not sure that is possible with all of the model improvements since then.

 

Oh it is possible... Will it happen though? I don't think so, at least not to that extent, but you have to remember Bellingham scored big with that event, so it was not a total bust for everyone. Our most northern posters would be thrilled with a redux. 

 

I am not totally on board, but getting closer. A January 1954 type event seems plausible. 

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GEFS looks awesome! Nice backdoor blast.

 

 

[Deweydog]

I am not sure that is possible with all of the model improvements since then.

Eh, not saying I think that kind of thing is imminent but both events busted in a pretty traditional way. The first bombed too soon and got all cyclogenocidal. Great for BC. BAD for us people who’s heads are attached to their jaws.

 

The second shot was even more prolifically-advertised but was a pretty traditional slide to the east in a deamplifying pattern. 66 wasn’t far behind!

 

2005 was pretty epic simply because it was two different events with significant support 4-6 days out.

 

The nice thing right now is the torch. It’s got a very shoe drop feel.

[kokaneekidz]

I just spent an hour listening to the weather radio and they mentioned 500' snow levels for days until monday night then 400' then the hammer drops Tuesday so to speak. This is probably to please the masses of people in DT Seattle that sadly will be the last to receive the goods.

Next Tuesday is the first day that NWS Seattle put just 'snow' in the forecast for the EPSL, with no 'rain' included in the wording.

 

Things will obviously change but still nice to see.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What are some historical analogs you guys are thinking about now? 

 

Here are the CPC 6-10 day analogs... Some of these were quite snowy.

 

19520113
20020128
20031231
20070110
19511231
19660101
19520118
19690130
19750130
20020119

[Phil]

January 2005 is not on the table.

 

I’ll eat a roasted cricket and post the video on YouTube if that happens.

[Jesse]

They’re different models technically.

Yeah, based off the old GFS which is still running in some alternate dimension. I still need to remind myself of that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, based off the old GFS which is still running in some alternate dimension. I still need to remind myself of that.

 

I wish we had the old GFS. 

[BLI snowman]

Yeah it's been years since I've seen such a distinct and consistent arctic signal for at least the Vancouver/Bellingham neck of the woods. The GFS's consistency on the cold since the onset has me fairly confident. I won't even start entertaining snow this far out since the PNW is such an unpredictable place with all the terrain dynamics but I would be gobsmacked if there wasn't at least one decent snowfall event for the region out of this.

 

Yeah, you have to go back to 2013-14 to find anything similar with an arctic airmass getting picked up this consistently on a major model.

 

GFS is showing a pretty impressive low level component as well on each run, even on the runs that mitigate the upper level cold somewhat.

 

I'm really not concerned about the snow at this point. The novelty of seeing a legitimate arctic push in mid January again will make whatever snow we do or don't get totally worth it all the same.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS CPC Analogs Day 8-14

 

February 1989 just popped up!

[Jesse]

Fixed. Glue needs to dry, though.

I only see the posts others respond to. I honestly do wish they would stop overreacting so much!

[Deweydog]

Yeah, you have to go back to 2013-14 to find anything similar with an arctic airmass getting picked up this consistently on a major model.

 

GFS is showing a pretty impressive low level component as well on each run, even on the runs that mitigate the upper level cold somewhat.

 

I'm really not concerned about the snow at this point. The novelty of seeing a legitimate arctic push in mid January again will make whatever snow we do or don't get totally worth it all the same.

Late 2016 had far more continuity and colder runs until it caught the bit of the splits about 72 hours out.

[FroYoBro]

Yeah, you have to go back to 2013-14 to find anything similar with an arctic airmass getting picked up this consistently on a major model.

 

GFS is showing a pretty impressive low level component as well on each run, even on the runs that mitigate the upper level cold somewhat.

 

I'm really not concerned about the snow at this point. The novelty of seeing a legitimate arctic push in mid January again will make whatever snow we do or don't get totally worth it all the same.

 

Wow, you sound pretty confident. 

 

Still too early to lock in a legit arctic push I think. 

[Jesse]

Late 2016 had far more continuity and colder runs until it caught the bit of the splits about 72 hours out.

That was the day before New Year’s Eve. So depressing..even though that January still ended up being our coldest in nearly 40 years.

 

I remember really looking forward to seeing a “top tier” outbreak, regardless.

[Timmy Supercell]

A January 2005 redux is definitely still on the table...

 

I'm sure the mountains will have something resembling a ski season though. Ignoring the bare looking New Years.

[kokaneekidz]

That was the year visible steam could be seen from over a mile away emanating from Puget Sound due to the 50 degree temp difference between air and water. And the deep cobalt blue sky with snow everywhere. Heaven on earth.

18z GFS CPC Analogs Day 8-14

 

February 1989 just popped up!

[BLI snowman]

What are some historical analogs you guys are thinking about now? 

 

Here are the CPC 6-10 day analogs... Some of these were quite snowy.

 

19520113

20020128

20031231

20070110

19511231

19660101

19520118

19690130

19750130

20020119

 

January 1902.

[Deweydog]

That was the day before New Year’s Eve. So depressing..even though that January still ended up being our coldest in nearly 40 years.

 

I remember really looking forward to seeing a “top tier” outbreak, regardless.

Yeah that was a really small upstream detail that made the most of itself to deball that guy pretty effectively. Lots of incredible runs prior to that however it it did end up working out okay...

 

This one is a different animal, in some good ways and some maybe not so good.

[Gradient Keeper]

January 1902.

How cold was that?

[BLI snowman]

Late 2016 had far more continuity and colder runs until it caught the bit of the splits about 72 hours out.

 

There was better major model agreement, the big ones were all on board for a bit until the cutoff solutions started popping up. But even before then I don't remember the low level airmass coming in from B.C. ever being quite as impressive as the GFS has consistently been showing up to this point.

[runninthruda206]

For a noobie like me, when's the last time we've seen the GFS be this persistent on something happening like this? I'm assuming its not often... 

[BLI snowman]

Wow, you sound pretty confident. 

 

Still too early to lock in a legit arctic push I think. 

 

I am.

 

Just checks all the boxes in my mind at this point.

[Deweydog]

There was better major model agreement, the big ones were all on board for a bit until the cutoff solutions started popping up. But even before then I don't remember the low level airmass coming in from B.C. ever being quite as impressive as the GFS has consistently been showing up to this point.

It was a more traditional introduction, but then again logic would dictate models will likely struggle a bit more handling what does look like more of a low level evolution. High risk/high reward...

 

Fact is though, support was across the board on that guy for about 3-4 days before it got neutered about three days out. I remember some February 2019-esque Euro snow maps.

[Requiem]

I'm really liking the amount of offshore flow advertised by most models and ensemble means. Best setup for Portland to get snow. Interesting that December 2003 is on the analogs, hmm...

[MossMan]

Well according to Tim I get about 8” of phantom snow and then a dry blast of non phantom cold. Yay.

[Deweydog]

BTW, 16 years ago right now it was icy AF.

[BLI snowman]

How cold was that?

 

Downtown Portland went from 38/22 on the 24th to 22/13 on the 25th.

 

Actual fronts like that used to be regular trademarks of our winter cold spells.