Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[bainbridgekid]

Sounds fun!  Most models swing the low through about the center (latitudinal center) of WA and precip almost instantly turns to snow on the back side of the low.  The EPSL usually does good with backwash.

The backside CZ/Arctic front potential Sunday evening is very interesting to me. Models always struggle in that situation.

[Deweydog]

[Skagit Weather]

36/34 here. Would be surprised if I end up seeing snow, but all the models suggest I'll get around an inch or so.

[Blizzard777]

Before the potentially crazy stuff next week-- tomorrow EURO shows gusts of around 50 mph in PDX, GFS and NAM a bit less so. Blustery anyhow.

I would count this as part of the crazy stuff!  

[GHweatherChris]

What if tomorrows system is the catalyst for next week... What if it performs differently than modeled hmmmm.

[Cloud]

Ridge is a touch more amplified at Day 2

[umadbro]

Before the potentially crazy stuff next week-- tomorrow EURO shows gusts of around 50 mph in PDX, GFS and NAM a bit less so. Blustery anyhow.

A good rule of thumb is the warmer it is the more mixed the atmosphere. Cooler it is... You get it. It'll be tougher for those winds to mix down which is why I was surprised with the wind advisory.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Low is a bit further south on Saturday night. 

[bainbridgekid]

Sunday's low definitely a tick further SW on this run through hour 60.

 

EDIT: It also gets a little stronger and curves slightly more North on its way in. Basically right through Everett. Would be nice for Skagit and Whatcom County and SW BC.

[Deweydog]

Sunday's low definitely a tick further SW on this run through hour 60.

How many notches is a tick?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Some global perspective:

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1215406974575071232

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like its a little further north at hour 72 now. 

[Deweydog]

Conflicting reports!

[bainbridgekid]

How many notches is a tick?

2 ticks in a notch.

 

2 notches in a smidge.

 

2 smidges in a jump.

[Requiem]

Looks like its a little further north at hour 72 now. 

 

And south again at 78 haha

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sunday night looking snowy up here. 

[FroYoBro]

Here comes the low for Portland!           

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Sunday's low definitely a tick further SW on this run through hour 60.

 

EDIT: It also gets a little stronger and curves slightly more North on its way in. Basically right through Everett. Would be nice for Skagit and Whatcom County and SW BC.

 

I’m getting cautiously optimistic about Sunday. The preponderance of model runs show me getting something. I really hope I do. Haven’t had “leading snow” (snow that falls as an arctic blast is coming in) anyplace I’ve lived for a long time. It’s time to experience it again. Should make for colder readings in the coming week, too.

[bainbridgekid]

More snow behind the low Sunday evening this run for most of Western WA. Shows a widespread 1-2 inches from about Chehalis to Everett and 3-5 inches North of that.

 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS really liking that Florence/Yachats landfall for the Monday low. 

[Weiner Warrior]

Euro seems to start off a little warm tonight

[Weiner Warrior]

You can really see the arctic front coming down on the 2m temps

[FroYoBro]

Here comes the low for Portland!           

 

It delivers nicely this run!

[Perturbed Member]

Not too bad

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Low tracks inland on a Florence to Eugene line. Albany to Wilsonville get buried. 

[Deweydog]

Euro seems to start off a little warm tonight

Yup

[MossMan]

Snow for everyone! (Except for TWL)

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Not too bad

Should be cold enough for snow at PDX if the 850mb temps verify.

 

[wxmet]

GFS has increased precipitation northward with the low on Tuesday. Good trend.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS gives Salem 6" on Monday night. A lot like the 12/14/16 storm. 

 

upper levels cool sooner, but may not bottom out as cold. Or just later. 

[Weiner Warrior]

Snow keeps getting better!! Lost another TOE NAIL!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

516 thickness to PDX by 10am Tuesday. Cold air moves south quick as the low clears.

 

That thing comes in 20 miles south and TWL is in business. 

[Deweydog]

Low tracks inland on a Florence to Eugene line. Albany to Wilsonville get buried.

Should verify on a bead from Westport to Lacey.

[FroYoBro]

Snow keeps getting better!! Lost another TOE NAIL!!

 

Are you purposely dropping hammers on your foot?

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Certainly some positive signs on the 0z GFS, Sunday could be a wild day for many with rapidly crashing temperatures. The GEM and ICON solutions have looked pretty awful, but the GFS has been far more consistent in getting us to this pattern. Let's hope that consistency holds in the short term as well.

[MossMan]

GFS has increased precipitation northward with the low on Tuesday. Good trend.

My mower plow is now staged right between the two cars in the garage, all I have to do is Fire it up, pull it straight out, and start plowing! Snow shovel on the back deck, and push broom next to my truck to knock off the snow from the carport...I’m ready!! Let’s do this!!!

[Perturbed Member]

Tuesday storm is a bit more than just spotty accumulations here on this run.

[Weiner Warrior]

Are you purposely dropping hammers on your foot?

It's gotta be the arctic front. The Toe knows.

[Weiner Warrior]

OMG... here it comes