Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[SnarkyGoblin]

NAM 00z looks further south with the arctic front on Sunday.

maps? pivotalweather doesn't have the 00z up yet.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A seasonably cool 36/30 here today. Currently 32 with the moon shining through high clouds. 

[wxmet]

maps? pivotalweather doesn't have the 00z up yet.

I’m on mobile at the moment but the maps are up. Good on the back side especially south Sound.

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like the nws Seattle says 1-2 inches of snow in the higher east puget sound lowlands and hood canal/Olympia areas. Other areas trace-1 inch for tonight.

[bainbridgekid]

NAM 00z looks further south with the arctic front on Sunday.

NAM keeps trying to track that low further South near Seattle. 00z is no different.

 

Like a 12 hour stalled CZ/Arctic front in the South Sound on the 00z NAM too.

[GHweatherChris]

Moisture coming in to the coast. Already pretty cold up in Seattle with the moon popping out. Thinking it might cool down enough before this moisture comes in.

Virga for now

[Deweydog]

Hour (3)84 on the NAM looks GOOD!

[MossMan]

Virga for now

The real phantom snow!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Mark?

Good for now. Factor in widespread snowcover, persistent low level arctic cold Gorge, Columbia Basin with east winds we'll end up colder than that.

[MossMan]

NAM keeps trying to track that low further South near Seattle. 00z is no different.

 

Like a 12 hour stalled CZ/Arctic front in the South Sound on the 00z NAM too.

Let’s stall that bad boy in northern Snohomish Co!!

[GHweatherChris]

Let’s stall that bad boy in northern Snohomish Co!!

You shut yo mouth!

[Perturbed Member]

Some snow in PDX by 10 PM Sunday on the NAM. 

 

 

18z GFS shows that too

Too much shadowing to be much more than some intermittent snow showers probably but nice to see the arctic front is only that many hours out from PDX

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some snow in PDX by 10 PM Sunday on the NAM. 

 

 

18z GFS shows that too

Too much shadowing to be much more than some intermittent snow showers probably but nice to see the arctic front is only that many hours out from PDX

 

 

Wow the NAM is aggressive with the arctic air. NAM doing NAM things. 

[Prairiedog]

Good for now. Factor in widespread snowcover, persistent low level arctic cold Gorge, Columbia Basin with east winds we'll end up colder than that.

That would indicate some warmer air overhead Thurs if there's a chance of ZR.  Zaffino says rain and 37 Friday.  Nelsen won't go to Friday yet.  Is there warmer air coming in aloft or not? 

[GHweatherChris]

Anybody got any NAM bait?

[umadbro]

That would indicate some warmer air overhead Thurs if there's a chance of ZR. Zaffino says rain and 37 Friday. Nelsen won't go to Friday yet. Is there warmer air coming in aloft or not?

Man, one or two systems at a time. The models can't even figure out Sunday night yet.

[MossMan]

https://komonews.com/news-brief-newsletter/if-youre-not-ready-get-ready-seattle-prepares-for-potential-snow-storm

[Gradient Keeper]

That would indicate some warmer air overhead Thurs if there's a chance of ZR.  Zaffino says rain and 37 Friday.  Nelsen won't go to Friday yet.  Is there warmer air coming in aloft or not? 

850s are shown to warm yes, but the 18z GEFS for NEXT Friday the 19th has 850s -3c PDX, The Dalles -4c Yakima -8c. That's still a signature for backdoor low level cold. Will there be a warm nose, finger, tongue at 900-950 mb though? My thoughts are as long as the east wind continues to blast low level arctic air through the Gorge PDX will remain in a Winter wonderland. We'll see!

[Deweydog]

That would indicate some warmer air overhead Thurs if there's a chance of ZR. Zaffino says rain and 37 Friday. Nelsen won't go to Friday yet. Is there warmer air coming in aloft or not?

There are five possible answers to your question. One of them is correct:

 

A. No, NAM extrapolations assure this won’t be the case.

B. Yes, because Tim is still allowed to roam the land a free man.

C. We don’t know yet.

D. No, east wind density will simply be too abundant.

E. Yes, Fridays are designated warm nose days in 2020.

[bainbridgekid]

There are five possible answers to your question. One of them is correct:

 

A. No, NAM extrapolations assure this won’t be the case.

B. Yes, because Tim is still allowed to roam the land a free man.

C. We don’t know yet.

D. No, east wind density will simply be too abundant.

E. Yes, Fridays are designated warm nose days in 2020.

The answer is always C.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Some snow in PDX by 10 PM Sunday on the NAM.

 

 

18z GFS shows that too

Too much shadowing to be much more than some intermittent snow showers probably but nice to see the arctic front is only that many hours out from PDX

 

Hmmmmmm, February 18 2018 was also a Sunday evening and dropped up to half a foot in parts of PDX. Maybe we can have another event like that one.

[Deweydog]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Point forecast for next week looks good.

 

Monday

Snow. Cloudy, with a high near 36.

Monday Night

Snow. Cloudy, with a low around 29.

Tuesday

Snow showers likely, mainly before 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32.

Tuesday Night

A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26.

Wednesday

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 29.

Wednesday Night

Snow. Cloudy, with a low around 22.

Thursday

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 35.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

32.1 here. Snow looks like a good bet tonight for many places.

[Prairiedog]

Man, one or two systems at a time. The models can't even figure out Sunday night yet.

Hey, just basing it on what Mark posted and compared it to 850's and they didnt seem to match up.  Its what we do, right?

Ok, I see some -3's for PDX.  Didn't see that. 

[bainbridgekid]

32.1 here. Snow looks like a good bet tonight for many places

You'll probably get several inches.

 

35/33 here currently so could be at least a little interesting between about 3 AM and 7 AM.

[snow_wizard]

NAM keeps trying to track that low further South near Seattle. 00z is no different.

 

Like a 12 hour stalled CZ/Arctic front in the South Sound on the 00z NAM too.

 

Sounds fun!  Most models swing the low through about the center (latitudinal center) of WA and precip almost instantly turns to snow on the back side of the low.  The EPSL usually does good with backwash.

[MossMan]

Hmmmmmm, February 18 2018 was also a Sunday evening and dropped up to half a foot in parts of PDX. Maybe we can have another event like that one.

That was a lovely morning!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

You'll probably get several inches.

Yeah anxious to see how the radar lights up.The mm5 has been consistent showing about 4 inches here.

[Prairiedog]

Hey, just basing it on what Mark posted and compared it to 850's and they didnt seem to match up.  Its what we do, right?

 

850s are shown to warm yes, but the 18z GEFS for NEXT Friday the 19th has 850s -3c PDX, The Dalles -4c Yakima -8c. That's still a signature for backdoor low level cold. Will there be a warm nose, finger, tongue at 900-950 mb though? My thoughts are as long as the east wind continues to blast low level arctic air through the Gorge PDX will remain in a Winter wonderland. We'll see!

Well if there's a warm tongue, it will park over my house.  Never fails.  Hope it doesn't linger. 

 

[MossMan]

There are five possible answers to your question. One of them is correct:

 

A. No, NAM extrapolations assure this won’t be the case.

B. Yes, because Tim is still allowed to roam the land a free man.

C. We don’t know yet.

D. No, east wind density will simply be too abundant.

E. Yes, Fridays are designated warm nose days in 2020.

B!

[Phil]

[MossMan]

32.8 here now.

[Deweydog]

OOz looks good so far.

[High Desert Mat?]

That low at hr 246 comes in 50 mi Ike’s south. We are buried!!!!!

[runninthruda206]

[Omegaraptor]

GFS is running!

[Requiem]

Before the potentially crazy stuff next week-- tomorrow EURO shows gusts of around 50 mph in PDX, GFS and NAM a bit less so. Blustery anyhow.

[Blizzard777]

NAM keeps trying to track that low further South near Seattle. 00z is no different.

 

Like a 12 hour stalled CZ/Arctic front in the South Sound on the 00z NAM too.

Arctic front can never overstay it’s welcome at my place 

[runninthruda206]

Would be awesome to get an inch tomorrow morning in the udist. Unlikely, but you bet I’ll be watching those flakes fall