Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Deweydog]

First naked badminton jamboree is next Thursday. Any guesses?

 

Asking for my genitalia.

[Winterdog]

Had a high of 36F today, a brief sun break early but cloudy most of the day.  Still have snow on much of the grass etc.  18Z!! 

[Perturbed Member]

Going to be really hard to top this 18z run, the best overall we've had I think. 

 

I still think the track for the Wednesday low is really weird but the models are starting to come into agreement with it so I guess it might be realistic. 

 

Starting to actually think significant snow is more likely than not now. Basically every EPS member is also onboard. 

[jakerepp]

Had a high of 36F today, a brief sun break early but cloudy most of the day.  Still have snow on much of the grass etc.  18Z!! 

Looks like we'll stay below 40 in Tukwila today. No snow here though

[MossMan]

First naked badminton jamboree is next Thursday. Any guesses?

 

Asking for my genitalia.

High probability of shrinkage. Might need to wrap up with some heat tape...Don’t trip on the extension cord...

[Omegaraptor]

Does anyone have 12z EPS individual member snow graphs?

[jakerepp]

Going to be really hard to top this 18z run, the best overall we've had I think. 

 

I still think the track for the Wednesday low is really weird but the models are starting to come into agreement with it so I guess it might be realistic. 

 

Starting to actually think significant snow is more likely than not now. Basically every EPS member is also onboard. 

Yeah, the ensemble snowfall totals for PDX are really impressive. Looks good for just about everyone at this point. 

[Codyjack]

I need a new snow shovel...but I'm nervous.  I would feel pretty silly buying it, then having to put it away in the basement because it's 38 degrees and drizzling next week in SE Portland.

 

But what if I need one and they're all sold out?  

[TT-SEA]

I have found the projected radar maps on the GFS to be a better guide to where precip will be falling... because the precip maps tend to paint with a very broad brush.

 

Here is an example from the 18Z run:

 

Precip map:

 

 

 

Radar map:

 

[jakerepp]

Does anyone have 12z EPS individual member snow graphs?

Page 178 

For PDX at least. 

[FroYoBro]

Coming to a city near you?

 

https://twitter.com/KOINNews/status/1215367131413368832

[wxmet]

I have found the projected radar maps on the GFS to be a better guide to where precip will be falling... because the precip maps tend to paint with a very broad brush.

 

Here is an example from the 18Z run:

 

Precip map:

 

 

 

Radar map:

 

You’re misunderstanding those maps. One is a 6-hour total of precipitation that has fallen and the other is the instantaneous composite reflectivity at the forecast hour.

[TT-SEA]

Had a high of 36F today, a brief sun break early but cloudy most of the day.  Still have snow on much of the grass etc.  18Z!! 

 

We even have snow on the trees still... saw a few breaks and blue sky this afternoon but overall it has been cloudy.   

[Cloud]

I have found the projected radar maps on the GFS to be a better guide to where precip will be falling... because the precip maps tend to paint with a very broad brush.

 

Here is an example from the 18Z run:

 

Precip map:

 

 

 

Radar map:

 

6 hour forecast vs. an instantaneous radar, perhaps you should run a 6 hour loop on that radar map.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Total snow Monday morning...

 

This is an improvement over the 12z.

 

That would be incredible for Whatcom County and the BCLM. A nice dump of snow as an arctic front arrives. The best possible timing for snow (and a d**n rare one in recent years). Would set things up for some really cold overnight lows later.

[Prairiedog]

I need a new snow shovel...but I'm nervous.  I would feel pretty silly buying it, then having to put it away in the basement because it's 38 degrees and drizzling next week in SE Portland.

 

But what if I need one and they're all sold out?  

Peloton's are great.  They have a tv mounted on them. 

[TT-SEA]

You’re misunderstanding those maps. One is a 6-hour total of precipitation that has fallen and the other is the instantaneous composite reflectivity at the forecast hour.

 

 

I totally understand those maps.   

 

It gives me a much better idea about the nature of the precip.    

 

Here is an example from Monday morning... and it was dumping rain non-stop here.

 

[Omegaraptor]

Let's look at some percentages for the 12z Euro ensemble member snowfall.

 

I upped the required totals as the old >2 or >4 would leave the percentages too high and be boring. Keep things interesting with the higher totals! Although now that I look at it, might have to increase that 6 inches or more slot. Those percentages are getting too high.  

 

KBLI - 80% 6 inches or more (+10%), 32% 10 inches or more (+2%)

 

KPAE - 90% 6 inches or more (+10%), 54% 10 inches or more (-2%)

 

KPDX - 90% 6 inches or more (+18%), 56% 10 inches or more (+16%)

 

Here's the chart for Seattle... +16% and +4% for the totals above. Lots of double digit increases.

 

Getting better and better in the home stretch! Colder runs ahead?

[wxmet]

I totally understand those maps.   

 

It gives me a much better idea about the nature of the precip.    

 

Here is an example from Monday morning... and it was dumping rain non-stop here.

 

You still don’t seem to understand. What you’re saying is a broad brush would show up on composite reflectivity if you could cycle in between the 6hr forecast period that the precip maps show. In fact if you go to the 186hr on composite it illustrates much of what I am saying.

[Cloud]

I totally understand those maps.

 

It gives me a much better idea about the nature of the precip.

 

Here is an example from Monday morning... and it was dumping rain non-stop here.

 

Again, the difference being in the details on how the radar is presented. You just showed a radar map with a “6 hour forecast” — the snow map radar you showed is at hour 192. Not a 6 hour forecast.

 

Huge difference.

[Esquimalt]

 

Let's look at some percentages for the 12z Euro ensemble member snowfall.

 

I upped the required totals as the old >2 or >4 would leave the percentages too high and be boring. Keep things interesting with the higher totals! Although now that I look at it, might have to increase that 6 inches or more slot. Those percentages are getting too high.

 

KBLI - 80% 6 inches or more (+10%), 32% 10 inches or more (+2%)

 

KPAE - 90% 6 inches or more (+10%), 54% 10 inches or more (-2%)

 

KPDX - 90% 6 inches or more (+18%), 56% 10 inches or more (+16%)

 

Here's the chart for Seattle... +16% and +4% for the totals above vs. 00z. Lots of double digit increases.

 

What do Victoria’s look like? Thanks!

[OysterPrintout]

I find the best way to get a real estimate of precipitation on the GFS is to close my eyes and click randomly on the left sidebar somewhere and then guess a number between 1-100

[TT-SEA]

You still don’t seem to understand. What you’re saying is a broad brush would show up on composite reflectivity if you could cycle in between the 6hr forecast period that the precip maps show. In fact if you go to the 186hr on composite it illustrates much of what I am saying.

 

Not what I am saying.  

 

The radar map is immensely useful.   It tells me if the precip is scattered and passing quickly or solid and non-stop.   I look at the radar map in conjunction with the precip map with almost every storm.    I can tell when a system is partly or mostly dry overall with passing showers... as opposed to those with statiform precip.

 

There is a huge difference.  That offshore ULL pattern is often quite dry here with passing showers.   Until it moves inland to our east... then it gets really wet here.

[SnarkyGoblin]

There's a fine line between being a voice of reason and just being contrarian.

[Deweydog]

I find the best way to get a real estimate of precipitation on the GFS is to close my eyes and click randomly on the left sidebar somewhere and then guess a number between 1-100

I have an even better method and it’s 100% accurate and relies on little or no technology whatsoever. Even works during power outages.

 

Go outside.

[Perturbed Member]

Yeah, the ensemble snowfall totals for PDX are really impressive. Looks good for just about everyone at this point. 

 

Yeah the super widespread regionwide snow being depicted on the models is really rare. Some of the frames on the 18z run show simultaneous snow from BC all the way deep into northern California. 

 

Would be something to have everyone on this thread enjoying the snow at the same time. 

[MossMan]

Would be nice to get a few inches tonight into tomorrow morning!

[OysterPrintout]

I have an even better method and it’s 100% accurate and relies on little or no technology whatsoever. Even works during power outages.

 

Go outside.

 

Andrew is gonna be triggered cause the real enjoyment is actually looking at the numbers on the screen.

[Deweydog]

There's a fine line between being a voice of reason and just being contrarian.

He had to dig deep for the 18z. The 00z suite should be easier pickings for him.

[TT-SEA]

Would be nice to get a few inches tonight into tomorrow morning!

 

That's what she said. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Would be nice to get a few inches tonight into tomorrow morning!

We have a great chance. Chris you and me will be the big winners tonight and tomorrow in the snow department.

[TT-SEA]

He had to dig deep for the 18z. The 00z suite should be easier pickings for him.

 

 

Not digging deep at all.

 

It would a crazy wintry scenario with strong winds and snow at times.   I am cheering for that pattern... because I would be sitting out here dry most of the time while others are getting lots of snow.     Its a win/win!  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Not digging deep at all.

 

It would a crazy wintry scenario with strong winds and snow at times.   I am cheering for that pattern... because I would be sitting out here dry most of the time while others are getting lots of snow.     Its a win/win!  

Do you hate snow that much? you do a good job of making us believe that but you get excited like the rest of us when it is dumping at your house from past experience. Just go with it Tim. 

[GHweatherChris]

We have a great chance. Chris you and me will be the big winners tonight and tomorrow in the snow department.

Not so sure I will, one can hope. We have gotten a few inches of not modeled snow from this type of storm before though...

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

On the 18Z GFS... this is the frame that would bring the most snow in my area.

 

Strong onshore flow in a c-zone with cold air pouring in behind the low.    No other period in the entire run would be as snowy... if it all verified.

 

[Omegaraptor]

A quick look at comparing with the 00z shows these are roughly the same. Maybe a slight increase.

 

Canada’s Roseburg

[TT-SEA]

Do you hate snow that much? you do a good job of making us believe that but you get excited like the rest of us when it is dumping at your house from past experience. Just go with it Tim. 

 

I don't hate snow.  

 

The snowfall yesterday and this morning was beautiful and had no impact on our daily life.   And its still beautiful out there.   Way better than drizzle and 45 degrees.   

[Deweydog]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.oregonlive.com/weather/2020/01/record-setting-winter-blast-crippled-portland-70-years-ago-causing-chaos-clogging-columbia-with-ice.html%3foutputType=amp

 

Cautionary tale as we head into next week. The first picture from near The Dalles is jaw dropping.

[The Swamp]

Oh man, then next person from North Bend that whips out a super accurate GFS radar precip map after they spent most of their time calling it a s**t model, I'll probably have some choice words.

Hell to the Yeah!

 

Get him!!!