Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[luvssnow_spokane]

There ya go Portland!!! Not as good for the central sound. 

 

[Esquimalt]

After seeing what the marginal are mass did today at face value this could be snow from about federal way and north for a large part of the area.

Think it'll all be snow here in town? 

[Requiem]

There ya go Portland!!!

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_17.png

That’s cold rain....next frame has snow though.

[FroYoBro]

The low goes south of Portland Monday night and it still is just more of a mix at the lowest elevations.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Think it'll all be snow here in town? 

You are going to get slammed IMO.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That is about the perfect track for my backyard. 

[Winterdog]

Seattle north pretty well screwed on this run thru 108 hours..

[Meatyorologist]

Our big midweek low is stronger by about 7-9mb and a bit closer

[Esquimalt]

You are going to get slammed IMO.

We're all going to have to patiently wait for the mesoscale models.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

A little colder so far than the 06z in western Wa.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The low goes south of Portland Monday night and it still is just more of a mix at the lowest elevations.

 

At face value I cannot imagine there would not be snow north of that low. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Just a weee bit colder this run too:

 

TODAY

 

PREVIOUS

 

 

[Skagit Weather]

Coldest run by a degree or two at the 850 mb level since the 00z last night.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This run bottoms out slightly cooler than the 12z for PDX/SLE. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

At face value I cannot imagine there would not be snow north of that low. 

Yes, that would most likely be snow.

[bainbridgekid]

Seattle north pretty well screwed on this run thru 108 hours..

Models never handle the type of convergence there will likely be along the arctic front behind Sunday's system and are almost always too dry in that setup.

 

No way to know how it will workout exactly, but Arlington has a good chance of picking up a few inches from that IMO.

[MossMan]

Seattle north pretty well screwed on this run thru 108 hours..

So nothing for us huh...That’s too bad.

[Meatyorologist]

Models never handle the type of convergence there will likely be along the arctic front behind Sunday's system and are almost always too dry in that setup.

 

No way to know how it will workout exactly, but Arlington has a good chance of picking up a few inches from that IMO.

We'll have to wait until the mesoscale models. Even the Euro, which is by no means our best Hi-Res model, shows the CZ with several inches locally.

[TacomaWaWx]

So nothing for us huh...That’s too bad.

I highly doubt northern WA will miss out. You guys will score at some point again.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Mid week system even further north than previous runs. NOT GOOD... maybe?

 

[BLI snowman]

At face value I cannot imagine there would not be snow north of that low. 

 

We'll start around 40 degrees on Monday and the basin won't be super cold yet... but the column would cool pretty quickly thanks to the cold air advecting into the low, would probably be an easy enough transition. Can't help but think of some similarities to our friend on the 10th a few years ago.

[bainbridgekid]

18z shows a pretty clear signature of convergence zone snowfall along the arctic front Sunday night in the South Sound.

 

Highly unlikely that would skip the North Sound and form down there. Much more likely to start along the Straight and slowly slide South.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Gets us back close to -10C. Insane.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We'll start around 40 degrees on Monday and the basin won't be super cold yet... but the column would cool pretty quickly thanks to the cold air advecting into the low, would probably be an easy enough transition. Can't help but think of some similarities to our friend on the 10th a few years ago.

 

Yeah the ones especially that had it coming in about 75 miles further north brought that one to mind. Also 12/14/16 and 12/29/03?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Mid week system even further north than previous runs. NOT GOOD... maybe?

 

gfs_T850_nwus_23.png

Starts dropping to the SE. Here she comes!

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

IT Cometh...

 

[GHweatherChris]

I think several people on here will see 2 or more inches of snow tonight.

[Winterdog]

So nothing for us huh...That’s too bad.

On paper we don't get much prior to the arctic air arriving and nothing on the second storm that goes south through Oregon.  But as BK said the models suck bigtime at moisture along fronts like that.  They also suck at tracking cuttoff lows over the ocean.  Who knows who is screwed and who isn't?  We all may get screwed! 

[Christensen87]

This could be the biggest widespread snow event in quite some time next week, wow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow. Perfect track for major WV snow on at hour 156.

[BLI snowman]

Yeah the ones especially that had it coming in about 75 miles further north brought that one to mind. Also 12/14/16 and 12/29/03?

 

Way more cold air to work with than 12/29/03.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Way more cold air to work with than 12/29/03.

 

Oh yeah, I remember that thing took forever to switch to snow. Polk County got 8-12" with that, while out in Silverton  we only got about 4" due to taking about 8 hours longer to transition to snow. 

[Omegaraptor]

Way better cold pool on the 18z. Models taketh and giveth back.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

IT Cometh...

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_25.png

Low just stalls out there.

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Could snow here tonight...then again Sunday night/Monday then again mid week. Arctic blast mixed in there and that's what I call an EPIC week. Already have had snow this is fun!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The middle of next week is really reminding me of January 2004. What the EURO and GFS are showing right now would keep us in the snow zone quite a bit longer though. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Beautiful set up for a region wide snow for many of us.

[jakerepp]

Looks great for Puget Sound from 156-186!

[runninthruda206]

holy that mid-week storm will be insane if that verifies

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS looks like the EURO late next week. Cold air aloft comes pouring back in...