Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Timmy]

Since the 06z GFS run this morning, the Sunday system has inched a hair south with each consecutive run.

 

If that trend keeps up, by Saturday night's run it should be right where we want it.

south of pdx?

[bainbridgekid]

36 straight hours of snow.

 

Lock this track in.

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Just sits there.... Epic snow for many of this if that verified.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

GFS looks like the EURO late next week. Cold air aloft comes pouring back in...

 

The system runs into a brick wall. Wont be able to scour out the cold air. Going to be snowy for many.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Losing the onshore flow by Friday, but it is a very cold airmass. 516 thickness at PDX.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cross cascade gradient is screaming. West valley gets buried. 

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Just sits there.... Epic snow for many of this if that verified.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_31.png

Going to be hard to top December 2008 but this looks like it's going to be the biggest regional snow event since then.

[luvssnow_spokane]

STAYS COLD... MEGA snow for all. YOUR welcome, as I put Tim in a medically induced coma today.   

[seattleweatherguy]

Total snow Monday morning...

 

This is an improvement over the 12z.

Still a big hole of 1 to 2 but I will take it

[Winterdog]

Gonna be a slopfest after that Thursday/Friday dump.

 

edit:  850's keeping pretty cold after the dump it looks like.  

[TacomaWaWx]

Really good signs on the gfs...just like several of us said the ol pull back before the hammer drop.

[Cloud]

Total snow Monday morning...

 

This is an improvement over the 12z.

Would you like some coffee with that donut?

[luvssnow_spokane]

This is a very good run today. FOR everyone!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This has to be the type of pattern that has buried the portland to Seattle area in the past old school events. You almost could't draw a better storm.

[MossMan]

[bainbridgekid]

Gonna be a slopfest after that Thursday/Friday dump.

Still plenty cold on Saturday on this run.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At hour 222 it looks like another overrunning event may be brewing. 

[wxmet]

Great storm track for PDX to Seattle. Band just sits over with cold air locked in place.

[runninthruda206]

If this run stays the same other than the low on Sunday moving a little south. I will shed tears of happiness

[jakerepp]

Scratch those maps I just posted. Those are the 12z and I was comparing to the 06z.

 

The Weatherbell site is not updating the 18z snow maps correctly. Too much snow to compute I guess.

They were filling in the Seattle Metro donut with creamy goodness 

[MossMan]

This is a very good run today. FOR everyone!!

Now let’s keep these positive trends going right up until the first flake flies! Tim might need to take his wife on a 2 week extended date night to Hawaii...Could be the only thing that pulls us through this!!

[Winterdog]

Still plenty cold on Saturday on this run.

 

gfs_T850_nwus_36.png

Yeah, I noticed and edited my comment.  I've not seen storms move north to northwest into an arctic boundary and not pretty much scour out the cold before. 

[FrozenBites]

[TT-SEA]

Quick note... this is not an AR type event overrunning a cold air mass.   That is what has bought massive snow to my location numerous times since we have been here.  Those are the biggest snow events here by far.   Early December 2007 and last February 11th are good examples.  And the snow in those situations is more widepsread if its overrunning arctic air in place.  Everyone gets in on the action.   I assume that is what has happened with the massive snowstorms in Seattle history.    This looks like a ULL that normally brings bands of showers... but in this case its able to pull in cold air from the east.    Places being rocked by the east wind will likely have a tough time getting heavy snow in this situation. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

MOTHER OF PEARL.

[Christensen87]

Good Lord 18z is pure perfection. 

[bainbridgekid]

Yeah, I noticed and edited my comment.  I've not seen storms move north to northwest into an arctic boundary and not pretty much scour out the cold before. 

It's because it becomes a closed off low without any jet stream support. Essentially an occluded front/Upper level Low without much of a warm sector.

[MossMan]

Good Lord 18z is pure perfection.

We just need to lock this one in and dump the key right into a soon to be frozen Green Lake!

[Winterdog]

That next storm is gonna be a biggy.  It would sure be cool if it were to continue a northeast trajectory and undercut Washington state.  Not gonna happen though it's destined to curl north to northwest and bring in a bunch of warm air eventually

[luvssnow_spokane]

Good Lord 18z is pure perfection. 

Not according to Tim... It will not be the snowstorm of the century. Was fun until Tim. Might as well rain. <_ src="%7B___base_url___%7D/uploads/emoticons/default_tongue.png" alt=":P">

[Cloud]

This has been shown consistently with the snow-maker low and it’s a track I’ve never seen before all my time living here. It look to stalls out and never really make landfall, this run gets it closer to land, at the tip of the Olympic Peninsula around Neah Bay, but afterward it just disappears.

 

In some of the previous runs, it went back out west. Very curious track.

[Timmy]

Lock this one in!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Quick note... this is not an AR type event overrunning a cold air mass.   That is what has bought massive snow to my location numerous times since we have been here.  Those are the biggest snow events here by far.   Early December 2007 and last February 11th are good examples.  And the same thing would be more widepsread if its overrunning arctic air in place.   I assume that is what has happened with the massive snowstorms in Seattle history.    This looks like a ULL that normally brings bands of showers... but in this case its able to pull in cold air from the east.    Places being rocked by the east wind will likely have a tough time getting heavy snow in this situation. 

Some of this is correct but this would be a monster storm west of the Cascades.

[runninthruda206]

I didn't even realize it stays cold into next weekend with this run omg

[Winterdog]

Crap that storm is moving through northern Oregon into Idaho and leaving us all colder in snow.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Moar snow.

 

GOOD GOD... Snow monsters will start breeding - No need to make them anymore.

[North_County]

36 straight hours of snow.

 

Lock this track in.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_27 (1).png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_28.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_29.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_30.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_31.png

Good grief. That low seemingly doesn't move an inch for over a full day and keeps a tight gradient through the Fraser at 20-26mb the whole time. Cold air just keeps steaming in from BC.

[TacomaWaWx]

Not sure about 7-10 days out...but the next few days before then look pretty awesome.

[jakerepp]

Where did that Sunday night Low come from??

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Probable the funnest looking ten days on a weather model iv'e seen.