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Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

Timmy Supercell

By Timmy Supercell
in West of the Rockies

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luvssnow_spokane Community Regular

luvssnow_spokane

Posted
Posted

Not digging deep at all.

 

It would a crazy wintry scenario with strong winds and snow at times.   I am cheering for that pattern... because I would be sitting out here dry most of the time while others are getting lots of snow.     Its a win/win!  

 

Should have just stopped there ^^^^^^^^^^^. It was a great run - Period. Now let's move on. Geesh!

My Weather Station

https://tempestwx.com/station/61434

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MR.SNOWMIZER
MR.SNOWMIZER

The best part of a good snowstorm around here IS the disturbance of every day life. It brings out the kids in adults and most people enjoy it. It really is magic around here when it happens and you do

SeanNyberg
SeanNyberg

I've been lurking here for years and rarely post, but let me just say this about the ridiculous Tim criticism. 1) You've all added about 100x more attention and energy to these "negative" posts than t

Skier B
Skier B

Just for you, snow wizard!!  1969 near SeaTac Airport.   Found these while moving my uncle out of his house.  My grandfather sent them to him when he was over seas fighting in the Vietnam War.   Grand

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
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Oh man, then next person from North Bend that whips out a super accurate GFS radar precip map after they spent most of their time calling it a s**t model, I'll probably have some choice words.

 

This is silly.   The GFS is not that bad and I have been gaining respect for it since the upgrade.

 

We are specifically talking about the details of what the 18Z run shows.   I said I have my doubts about the overall pattern at that time.  But... if we are going to analyze it at face value then first place I am looking is the radar loop.   That is immensely informative about the nature of the system and the precip pattern.   It shows exactly what I thought it would show with a ULL sitting offshore for days.   It would be quite dry out here compared to other places.    

 

People would be very happy overall... they just want precip and the cold air to stay in place.   That pattern would do it.   But don't say we would buried under 2+ feet of snow in that pattern.   That is just wrong.    That is not how we get our big snow events here.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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luvssnow_spokane Community Regular

luvssnow_spokane

Posted
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I've noticed that you are allowed to have swear words show but us lowlies can't.

 

In the renewed spirit of socialism that is springing up throughout the country I do not think this is fair and I request all rules and regulations to be changed to allow swear words to be accessible to everyone. Please ensure this request is met or I will gather my fellow weather forum members and we will protest in the street. Store windows will be broken and things will be set ablaze until our demands are met.

 

This might be true if you were female and not caucasian! In fact I know it would, and probably would go viral and be on the Democratic agenda and make CNN top stories. ;)

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My Weather Station

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Rubus Leucodermis Grand Master

Rubus Leucodermis

Posted
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I need a new snow shovel...but I'm nervous.  I would feel pretty silly buying it, then having to put it away in the basement because it's 38 degrees and drizzling next week in SE Portland.

 

But what if I need one and they're all sold out?  

Get the kind with the handle that telescopes together, the kind for sticking in the trunk of your car when driving in snow country. That way you can say it’s for traveling in the mountains even if snow doesn’t materialize in your part of the lowlands.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Should have just stopped there ^^^^^^^^^^^. It was a great run - Period. Now let's move on. Geesh!

 

No doubt... keep that ULL offshore spinning and it will not scour out the cold air.   It would just bring in more cold air.   Its a perfect scenario to keep us in a wintry situation despite the warming aloft.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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MR.SNOWMIZER Grand Master

MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted
Posted

This is silly.   The GFS is not that bad and I have been gaining respect for it since the upgrade.

 

We are specifically talking about the details of what the 18Z run shows.   I said I have my doubts about the overall pattern at that time.  But... if we are going to analyze it at face value then first place I am looking is the radar loop.   That is immensely informative about the nature of the system and the precip pattern.   It shows exactly what I thought it would show with a ULL sitting offshore for days.   It would be quite dry out here compared to other places.    

 

People would be very happy overall... they just want precip and the cold air to stay in place.   That pattern would do it.   But don't say we would buried under 2+ feet of snow in that pattern.   That is just wrong.    That is not how we get our big snow events here.

Are speaking about your area now or the whole area?

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Perturbed Member Grand Master

Perturbed Member

Posted
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Nice 10 degree snowstorm in the Portland area on Wednesday night  :lol:

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kvuo

 

I don't think I've ever seen that before on model text data inside of 180 hours.

 

The 850s are nothing absurd but absolutely loving the crazy low level cold.  -5c 850mb temps and -16c 925mbs @ 156hrs.

 

The big event is 153 hours out and the first snow in PDX is about 108 hrs out (though it actually snowed a bit earlier in HIO today). 

 

Hoping the models don't play any cruel jokes on us from here on out and just lock it in.

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BLI snowman Grand Master

BLI snowman

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The 850s are nothing absurd but absolutely loving the crazy low level cold.  -5c 850mb temps and -16c 925mbs @ 156hrs.

 

The big event is 153 hours out and the first snow in PDX is about 108 hrs out (though it actually snowed a bit earlier in HIO today). 

 

Hoping the models don't play any cruel jokes on us from here on out and just lock it in.

 

 

And you don't have to go very far to find the absurd 850mb temps, -23c at The Dalles next week would be very historic.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Are speaking about your area now or the whole area?

 

The EPSL in general... and my area specifically,

 

Places west of Seattle and Portland would be heavily favored... upslope there and downslope here.   

 

Pretty simple... we all know how that type of pattern works.   Its not always wetter out here... and we don't always have the most snow.    I always like that type of pattern in general... even if its just rain for everyone.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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FroYoBro Grand Master

FroYoBro

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The 850s are nothing absurd but absolutely loving the crazy low level cold.  -5c 850mb temps and -16c 925mbs @ 156hrs.

 

The big event is 153 hours out and the first snow in PDX is about 108 hrs out (though it actually snowed a bit earlier in HIO today). 

 

Hoping the models don't play any cruel jokes on us from here on out and just lock it in.

 

That is still a lot of time. Like Dewey has been saying, wait for the Sunday 18z! 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Total snow from 4AM Sunday through 4AM Monday per 18z Euro.

 

1578916800-PX9mM1fvh30.png

 

 

ECMWF has just refuses to show that c-zone snow event for my area on Sunday evening.   Its just slower overall with the cold air coming south.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Posted

The hrrr is showing a nice coating of snow for everyone from about Olympia north late tonight. Maybe an inch or so.

 

18Z ECMWF showing some lowland snow as well... through tomorrow morning at 10 a.m.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow-12hr

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Frontal Snowsquall Grand Master

Frontal Snowsquall

Posted
Posted

IF that low plays nice it sure could. It's a very delicate dance. 6 days to go. It's sure possible but look back at the last few days. The low has tracked every which way. 2008 was absolutely incredible for me with a 1/4" of ice sandwiched in between a 7" and 8" snowfall. Heck, right now I'd be happy with even half that. But if I can get more, I'll gladly take another, please.

Yeah, still a ways out but there's huge potential for many areas to score big next week. I'm cautiously optimistic at the moment but I'm leaning major snowstorm for a good portion of the PNW.

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TigerWoodsLibido Grand Master

TigerWoodsLibido

Posted
Posted

I want snow. Lots of it. But I'm preparing for my favorite meal.

 

We are gonna be paying PDX back for last year this time.

 

It all comes back around.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Kayla Grand Master

Kayla

Posted
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18z ECMWF shows lower heights in OR and a stronger push of Arctic air through WA/MT compared to the 12z at hour 78...

 

Screen Shot 2020-01-09 at 5.41.19 PM.png

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Perturbed Member Grand Master

Perturbed Member

Posted
Posted

That is still a lot of time. Like Dewey has been saying, wait for the Sunday 18z! 

 

Yeah I don't think I'd bother trying to predict snow amounts until 48 hrs out but I'd be surprised if most places didn't at least see some accumulating snow next week. The overall large scale pattern that will bring us the goods is already well underway now. 

 

Heights over Alaska have already been increasing over the last 24-36 hrs and we should see the offshore ridge blowing up over the next day. A few days ago we were all worried whether the GFS or the Euro would be right about the ridge merger over AK, nice to see the GFS won that battle and we can actually monitor it as it is happening now. By early Saturday we should be able to see the trough really digging southward. I think confidence should start to really climb once we see all those things set in motion. 

 

gfs_z500a_namer_1.png

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Frontal Snowsquall Grand Master

Frontal Snowsquall

Posted
Posted

 

Let's look at some percentages for the 12z Euro ensemble member snowfall.

 

I upped the required totals as the old >2 or >4 would leave the percentages too high and be boring. Keep things interesting with the higher totals! Although now that I look at it, might have to increase that 6 inches or more slot. Those percentages are getting too high. ;)

 

KBLI - 80% 6 inches or more (+10%), 32% 10 inches or more (+2%)

 

KPAE - 90% 6 inches or more (+10%), 54% 10 inches or more (-2%)

 

KPDX - 90% 6 inches or more (+18%), 56% 10 inches or more (+16%)

 

Here's the chart for Seattle... +16% and +4% for the totals above vs. 00z. Lots of double digit increases.

 

1578571200-WOGFkYrMEWI.png

If this doesn't smell like big regional snowstorm, I dont know what does.

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