Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looks like Oregon eats a big bag of dicks on this run.

 

What is ridiculous is how rare good old popcorn cloud onshore flow has become? Wtf is going on.

[The Swamp]

Yesterday it was 10 days away.  Today it's 10 days away.  Anyone seeing a trend?

[Jesse]

[TT-SEA]

GFS ensemble mean sending lots of cold air out into the ocean after day 10.   

 

Still could be a decent pattern with snow chances... but this pattern is definitely a possibility.   Last night it was said there was no chance of that happening.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A partly sunny morning here. 37 degrees. 

[snow_wizard]

Looks like Oregon eats a big bag of dicks on this run. 

 

These PNA block scenarios favor a strong N to S temp gradient.  Even Jan 1950 saw that, but OR was still so cold it's harder to notice.  The N to S gradient situations are much better snow producers than NE to SW gradients....especially for WA.  The GFS looks better for OR with the third cold shot.

[TacomaWaWx]

Yesterday it was 10 days away.  Today it's 10 days away.  Anyone seeing a trend?

more like 7-10 days now on most models. But yes it needs to move up a few more days to get too excited.

[snow_wizard]

Through the 15th it is good. Much warmer after that. 

 

Not even worried about the late stuff right now.

[snow_wizard]

more like 7-10 days now on most models. But yes it needs to move up a few more days to get too excited.

 

He was wrong, but oh well.  The first cold shot is next weekend now.  How anyone could not be happy with that run is beyond me.

[Jesse]

GFS ensembles look good. I think the long range only appears warmer than recent runs because the mid range cooled. Otherwise it’s essentially the same.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like Oregon eats a big bag of dicks on this run. 

 

 

The difference in opinion between a terrible and awesome 12Z GFS run comes down to basically one system around day 10.

 

That could easily end up delivering snow to Oregon and leave WA high and dry.   Its happened before.    

[The Swamp]

GFS ensemble mean sending lots of cold air out into the ocean after day 10.   

 

Still could be a decent pattern with snow chances... but this pattern is definitely a possibility.   Last night it was said there was no chance of that happening.

 

 

I said this the other day Tim

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not even worried about the late stuff right now.

 

I thought the 12z was decent until Tim explained in detail how it still sucks.

 

But seriously the GFS appears to have a serious cold bias. Take the trough this weekend as a prime example.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

GFS ensemble mean sending lots of cold air out into the ocean after day 10. That pattern can be good for snow but there is usually a fine line to be threaded. I really feel like we may see a little bit of everything the next 3 or 4 weeks.  

 

Still could be a decent pattern with snow chances... but this pattern is definitely a possibility.   Last night it was said there was no chance of that happening.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The difference in opinion between a terrible and awesome 12Z GFS run comes down to basically one system around day 10.

 

That could easily end up delivering snow to Oregon and leave WA high and dry.   Its happened before.    

 

I know. I was not being completely serious. And the GFS looks great for next weekend here. Unfortunately a week ago this weekend looked pretty similar. 

[The Swamp]

He was wrong, but oh well.  The first cold shot is next weekend now.  How anyone could not be happy with that run is beyond me.

 

Next weekend is not what I would call a cold shot during the winter.  It's more like what you would call a SNAP or whatever it is you say.

[snow_wizard]

Meanwhile the GEM was MASSIVELY better on this run.

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like Oregon eats a big bag of dicks on this run.

 

pretty low chance it actually ends up playing out exactly like that anyways. This whole event could be good for everyone in WA only...in OR only...maybe both too early to say.Going to be lots of run to run variation over the next few days some good some bad. Specifc details aren't really important at this range.

[snow_wizard]

Good grief.  Some people on here are freeking depressing.  Watch and learn.

[Jesse]

pretty low chance it actually ends up playing out exactly like that anyways. This whole event could be good for everyone in WA only...in OR only...maybe both too early to say.Going to be lots of run to run variation over the next few days some good some bad. Specifc details aren't really important at this range.

Andrew knows all this. I think his goal lately is to be more annoying than Tim.

[kokaneekidz]

They have the brown bottle flu. Til later this evening.... LOL

Good grief.  Some people on here are freeking depressing.  Watch and learn.

[TT-SEA]

Meanwhile the GEM was MASSIVELY better on this run.

 

 

At the very end.   Its much warmer for next weekend compared to the GFS.

[snow_wizard]

The WRF shows some lowland snow beginning to show up on Thursday.  But hey...this is still 10 days out. 

[snow_wizard]

They have the brown bottle flu. Til later this evening.... LOL

 

The Debbie Downers come on here and make stuff up just to cause trouble.  Kind of like CNN.

[snow_wizard]

I'm going to enjoy this D****T!

[Jesse]

I'm going to enjoy this D****T!

Sadly the best way to do that nowadays is to log off the forum. That or just ignore the people who try to ruin everything.

[TT-SEA]

The Debbie Downers come on here and make stuff up just to cause trouble.  Kind of like CNN.

 

Hope you are not including me in that... I am being as realistic as possible and not trolling anyone.   I have said many "positive" things over the last few days because its what I am seeing in the models.   I am not going to ignore less than positive things though... that would be silly.  

 

You can enjoy whatever you want.    It looks like a really interesting period that is ripe with potential in my opinion.

[snow_wizard]

Sadly the best way to do that nowadays is to log off the forum. That or just ignore the people who try to ruin everything.

 

I just don't get it.  The 12z shows three rounds of snow and solid cold for us and people say this is no better than previous runs.

[Timmy]

Jim is earning all the grief he has gotten from Tim over the years, and I will no longer feel bad for him. Especially if/when this thing falls apart

[TT-SEA]

Sadly the best way to do that nowadays is to log off the forum. That or just ignore the people who try to ruin everything.

 

 

Anyone who lets people on an internet forum ruin their enjoyment of the actual weather happening outside their window has only themselves to blame.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Enjoy it if it happens. At this point its all just noise. At least we shouldn't be in the low 60s for a couple weeks. 

[El_Nina]

0.67" since midnight brings it to 1.22" for 2020. Mountains from the NE to the SW corner of the state were blanketed last night, too.

[Jesse]

Jim is earning all the grief he has gotten from Tim over the years, and I will no longer feel bad for him. Especially if/when this thing falls apart

Yeah he has been pretty bad lately too. Honestly I don’t know who to hate the most right now for ruining my enjoyment of this weather.

[snow_wizard]

Anyway here is the much improved GEM.

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Positive splat test this morning

The first of many coming. You should get buried with this pattern coming up.

[Timmy]

I just don't get it. The 12z shows three rounds of snow and solid cold for us and people say this is no better than previous runs.

. Who is “us?”, it shows basically zero snow in the next 10 days for Clark county south... you have to understand this is more fragile than you are making it, but it isn’t looking like a sure bet for many on here.

[snow_wizard]

Jim is earning all the grief he has gotten from Tim over the years, and I will no longer feel bad for him. Especially if/when this thing falls apart

 

The guy was lying.  I'm not going to let that fly.

[TacomaWaWx]

Andrew knows all this. I think his goal lately is to be more annoying than Tim.

some posters sarcasm is harder to read than others. 2/3rds of the stuff posted on here is serious then the other 1/3rd it's not. Makes it hard to tell sometimes lol.

[Jesse]

some posters sarcasm is harder to read than others. 2/3rds of the stuff posted on here is serious then the other 1/3rd it's not. Makes it hard to tell sometimes lol.

A VERY efficient way to destroy ones own credibility!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For clarification, and I have said this before. I often comment on individual runs, such as "Oregon eats a bag of dicks on THIS RUN." This does not mean I think what the 12z shows is set in stone. 

 

At this point what the 12z shows is probably a best case scenario when we compare it to other models. Still does not mean things could not change or that I do not think they could. But right now we are getting mixed signals about a pattern change that at worst will deliver snow to the mountains and temps near average and at best could deliver some chilly air and flirtations with lowland snow at times. 

 

Could the potential improve? Of course, but right now it is what it is.