Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I'd like to just remind people again that when the models go to complete pig shitttt it is the perfect opportunity to dwell on how bad it is to be alive and is a perfect time to be a jerk to friends and family and even a stranger. Probably a good time to go outside and kill a bird or something and start to write out your will.

[wxmet]

Pivotal weather now has ECMWF skew-ts which is gonna be really nice for snow forecasting.

[GHweatherChris]

Looking forward to waking up tomorrow.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I feel terrible for TWL.

 

Got buried this past Feb.  There will be a good Jan event here one day. 

[runninthruda206]

Looks like the euro keeps us cold saturday? Or am I reading it wrong haha

 

edit: nvm

[FroYoBro]

Looks like the euro keeps us cold saturday? Or am I reading it wrong haha

 

Not really cold on Saturday. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO looks a little better. Might be primed to drop that secondary low south like the GFS does. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Here we go!

[runninthruda206]

Not really cold on Saturday. 

 

Yup just figured out what I was actually looking at. Thanks.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not really cold on Saturday. 

 

Neither is the GFS anymore, we'll have to see if the EURO drops that secondary low down, which is what pulls the cold air in on the GFS. 

[FroYoBro]

Neither is the GFS anymore, we'll have to see if the EURO drops that secondary low down, which is what pulls the cold air in on the GFS. 

 

Yeah, I know. Looks very similar so far. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS is colder on day 8 though. 

[TT-SEA]

GFS is colder on day 8 though. 

 

 

When the models finally agree on the 500mb pattern... it will likely be pretty clear that the GFS is too aggressive with cold air past day 7.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Getting closer!

 

[Slushy Inch]

And just like that the Euro looks better than the GFS! https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2020010412/ecmwf_z500a_us_10.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020010412/gfs_z500a_us_37.png

[Front Ranger]

Euro looks nice at day 9. Better ridge position and tilt.

 

 

[Jesse]

Euro looking good at hour 216.

 

Pretty excited for the potential of this upcoming pattern.

[OysterPrintout]

Nice to see the Euro looking like it will go places at hour 240 moved up to 200ish.

[Jesse]

It is in this vein I sort of respect a poster like [NAME REDACTED] who has unwavering faith that an upcoming pattern will deliver, ignoring model signs to the contrary up until the point where it does't happen and they have a meltdown but at least they made a stand regarding a prediction.

 

It's in stark contrast to posters like [NAMES REDACTED] that hyper-focus on (usually negative) very specific model run details only for those details to often change in the next few days or sometimes even hours later without any sense of the history of the amount of times this has burned them.

You really see through some of the patterns here. Stick around.

[Front Ranger]

I think Tim is going to have some lowland snowfall within 10 days on the Euro to show us!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[runninthruda206]

So did the cold air get pushed back again to monday instead of sat night/sun?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not a bad EURO run folks. 

[OysterPrintout]

You really see through some of the patterns here. Stick around.

 

I mean I was here for a long time at least as early as the Feb 2014 event, before the site migration as well. Don't remember the exact time. I just didn't really post until learning how to read the models decently enough. And for all the absurdity of this forum it is a tremendous learning environment for which I am grateful to even the impossibly difficult posters.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows a robust storm rolling though late Sunday into Monday morning.

 

Its primarily rain for the lowlands... but it shows some snow around Bellingham.    On Monday morning it shows strong SW winds in the Seattle area... but light winds up north.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I like the Tidbits color scheme better than Pivotal...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12Z ECMWF shows a robust storm rolling though late Sunday into Monday morning.

 

Its primarily rain for the lowlands... but it shows some snow around Bellingham.    On Monday morning it shows strong SW winds in the Seattle area... but light winds up north.

 

Makes sense. It is a chilly pattern though. I think a January 2002/08 blend is the most likely scenario through day 10.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow per the 12Z ECMWF.

 

 

Some of the light stuff in the lowlands comes at various times during the week and is probably just some flakes in the air at times... the stuff in Whatcom and Snohomish Counties is primarily on Sunday night into Monday morning.

[Jesse]

I mean I was here for a long time at least as early as the Feb 2014 event, before the site migration as well. Don't remember the exact time. I just didn't really post until learning how to read the models decently enough. And for all the absurdity of this forum it is a tremendous learning environment for which I am grateful to even the impossibly difficult posters.

It definitely is. There is a lot of collective knowledge here.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF shows highs in the low to mid 40s for the Seattle on Monday... and its still above freezing on Tuesday morning from Seattle southward.

 

Here are surface temps on the morning of day 10:

 

 

 

Precip has moved south into Oregon at that time and its clearing in WA.

[TacomaWaWx]

Nice steps taken by the euro. Getting closer and closer to locking this pattern in.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ECMWF shows highs in the low to mid 40s for the Seattle on Monday... and its still above freezing on Tuesday morning from Seattle southward.

 

Here are surface temps on the morning of day 10:

 

 

 

Precip has moved south into Oregon at that time and its clearing in WA.

 

Probably snowing up here, with positive splat tests for valley locations. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Here is a PNW closeup of total snow for the ECMWF

 

[runninthruda206]

looks like seattle may not get much if at all 

[Winterdog]

Good runs so far today. Despite Tim constantly pulling back the reins on my enthusiasm I am looking forward to a much colder pattern. Could be mediocre or could be historic but it will be interesting for sure.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Right now I still think 2002, 2008 are the best primary analogs for the upcoming pattern with 2012 and 2007 secondary analogs and maybe best case type scenarios. 

[wxmet]

Lots of potential starting next weekend. If we can get one of those shortwaves dropping down to phase we’ll be in business. That’s the main difference between the earlier GFS runs and the current ones.

[Perturbed Member]

Pivotal weather now has ECMWF skew-ts which is gonna be really nice for snow forecasting.

 

Awesome find. 

Really cool that Pivotal is able to offer all this euro data for free.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EPS looking good so far. 

[OysterPrintout]

Important to note I think that surface level stuff will probably change even if it doesn't look great right now. Even if we get busted by this onshore flow, the set-up is still there at the end of the Euro and persists basically the entirety of every GFS run.

We should get a lot of bites at the apple.