Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Here is Monday... this really means 45ish in Seattle. Assuming it has the pattern correct of course.

 

 

So 5 degrees cooler than today? Welp, it's a start.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Here is Monday... this really means 45ish in Seattle. Assuming it has the pattern correct of course.

strange it shows the same high temp Monday as it was today but monday is a cooler modeled airmass.

[HighlandExperience]

Who the hell is Rufus La Lone?

We need him posting here.

[The Swamp]

kpae.png

 

And one last one for Bellingham, have to be careful about how many I post, I think they have a limit.

 

bell.png

 

looks like a cool snap coming

[TigerWoodsLibido]

50/37 today. A +3.8F departure. But hey, it's better than the double-digit positive departures we were seeing.

[luvssnow_spokane]

strange it shows the same high temp Monday as it was today but monday is a cooler modeled airmass.

I had a high of 42 today. Hopefully these temps will get colder as the time gets closer. Still a long ways out!

[TT-SEA]

The biggest message I'm seeing on just about every model is for a relatively slow bleed South of the cold air. The boundary would likely bounce around a bit rather than surge South and leave us high and dry.

 

That always leads to agony while you're South of the boundary waiting with temps in the 40's, but also will likely lead to significant snowfall North of the boundary as it slips South. Likely to be a very snowy pattern for NW Washington and SW BC in my opinion if they stay mainly on the North side.

 

Definitely overall looks like a pattern that favors Washington over Oregon in general, but anyone can get nailed with a storm taking the right track.

I have noticed the same thing. It appears to be the opposite of a blast... more like a trickle.

[luvssnow_spokane]

We need him posting here.

Jim does.

[bainbridgekid]

I have noticed the same thing. It appears to be the opposite of a blast... more like an inconsistent trickle.

Reminds me a little of late February 2014 and mid January 2012.

 

Both had huge snowstorms North of the boundary (Bellingham/Vancouver in 2014 and Chehalis to Everett in 2012) and were fairly painful South of that waiting for the cold air.

 

Still too early to know how far things will penetrate this time.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Requiem]

Jaya posted some very nice GFS and EURO ensembles on his Twitter. More potential than I expected from Salem to Bellingham.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

All the way down to...46F out there.  Nice night.

[GHweatherChris]

Sorry everyone, I had to tell my wife that there is a tiny chance of snow possibly coming. She keeps asking when I am gonna take down the xmas lights, I told her after we see some snow, she is hoping the tiny chance we have pans out.

[Requiem]

The biggest message I'm seeing on just about every model is for a relatively slow bleed South of the cold air. The boundary would likely bounce around a bit rather than surge South and leave us high and dry.

 

That always leads to agony while you're South of the boundary waiting with temps in the 40's, but also will likely lead to significant snowfall North of the boundary as it slips South. Likely to be a very snowy pattern for NW Washington and SW BC in my opinion if they stay mainly on the North side.

 

Definitely overall looks like a pattern that favors Washington over Oregon in general, but anyone can get nailed with a storm taking the right track.

Would be more than a little irritating to see Portlznd miss out by such a small margin yet again, but too early to see how things go. Hopefully things improve for us southern posters.

[GHweatherChris]

[MossMan]

Had a high of 45 after a low of 36. Currently 41.

.86” on the day, 1.32” since last evening. 1.74” on the month.

 

Spent the day pressure washing since it will likely be too cold the rest of the month to do it.

 

After catching up on the posts today it appears the models didn’t decline as much as some were thinking they would, good to see!

 

Justin, and Jarod are not on board.

JAYA, Tim, and SFA now in the half inflated dingy!

Cliff Mass, Jim, and most everyone else is on board!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like 0.46" from the rain overnight last night.  Hasn't rained since.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Doing some backend maintenance. Site might either be slow or unavailable and random times, but shouldn't be a long disruption.

 

 

 

ANALogs Gone Wild

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Personal use on social media provided it isn't for profit and the images are not modified are fine.

Just checked, I can post 5 per day.

[GHweatherChris]

Last 3 calendars years of precip from my station:

 

2017- 105.2

2018- 92.43

2019- 63.64

 

2020 so far- 2.31

[The Swamp]

Would be more than a little irritating to see Portlznd miss out by such a small margin yet again, but too early to see how things go. Hopefully things improve for us southern posters.

 

In order to miss out something has to happen.  Nothing has happened.  All details are still up in the air.  Hold tight.  Act like you've been here before.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Currently 38 after a high of 42. Light rain falling at the moment. 

 

The reaction to the 18z was fairly comical. As usual I think Justin's analysis was spot on. No sense worrying about an individual run. Overall I was encouraged by the run. I doubt what it shows will verify verbatim, so hopefully the trend to dig the energy way offshore will be reigned in. The pattern shown actually reminds me a bit of last February. 

 

Good improvements on the ensembles. 

[Requiem]

In order to miss out something has to happen.  Nothing has happened.  All details are still up in the air.  Hold tight.  Act like you've been here before.

I was talking about last February, but I digress. The details are up in the air, so we just have to hope for the best.

[The Swamp]

I was talking about last February, but I digress. The details are up in the air, so we just have to hope for the best.

 

Every day the models are different.  Tomorrow it could be a Eugene special.  Sit tight.

[GHweatherChris]

Every day the models are different. Tomorrow it could be a Eugene special. Sit tight.

I am feeling an end result of a Lower Chehalis Valley special, gut feeling.

[Gradient Keeper]

Last night's 00z GEFS Forecast Teleconnection Indices featured the lowest PNA I've ever seen. A notch below a -6 sigma. Wow!

 

[MossMan]

I am feeling an end result of a Lower Chehalis Valley special, gut feeling.

I’m feeling an Everett north special...Just a gut feeling.

[Esquimalt]

[MossMan]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Or maybe even a Prince Rupert north special.

[BLI snowman]

Last 3 calendars years of precip from my station:

 

2017- 105.2

2018- 92.43

2019- 63.64

 

2020 so far- 2.31

 

Wow, huge drop from last year to this year!

[Requiem]

Or maybe even a Prince Rupert north special.

How about a February 2014 repeat?

[Esquimalt]

Or maybe even a Prince Rupert north special.

Oh yeah they’re having multiple of those this next week. They’re the best

[GHweatherChris]

Wow, huge drop from last year to this year!

Honestly I was shocked it was that severe.

[Jbolin]

I am feeling an end result of a Lower Chehalis Valley special, gut feeling.

Get out of my head man.

[jakerepp]

Last night's 00z GEFS Forecast Teleconnection Indices featured the lowest PNA I've ever seen. A notch below a -6 sigma. Wow!

 

 

So beautiful. So excited for next week at this point

[GHweatherChris]

Get out of my head man.

Where do you live? I forgot.

[Blizzard777]

I’m feeling an Everett north special...Just a gut feeling.

Feel like I’m on Survivor and just lost my alliance.

[umadbro]

I'm feeling a woodland to the Columbia River special. Just a gut feeling.