Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

ECMWF shows highs in the low to mid 40s for the Seattle on Monday... and its still above freezing on Tuesday morning from Seattle southward.

 

Here are surface temps on the morning of day 10:

 

 

 

Precip has moved south into Oregon at that time and its clearing in WA. Pretty good shot of snow around hood canal and wow It is going to get COLD at my cabin looks like minus 10 or so.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Jaya:

 

Jay Albrecht‏ @AlbrechtJay 14m14 minutes ago

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My quick take: 12Z Euro has moved a tad toward US model, but game of chicken continues. It is less cold, less potential for snow, and day later than US model. This is due to less strength in the high pressure aloft from NE of Hawaii to Alaska. Wait continues #wawx

[FrozenBites]

This place is the ultimate SITCOM.

Isn't this the truth.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like some pretty significant positive departures in the Willamette Valley again today. 

[El_Nina]

This is gonna look a lot better soon

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like some pretty significant positive departures in the Willamette Valley again today. 

 

Because why not? January is always a torch anymore so let's keep the tradition alive at least for the first few days...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This is gonna look a lot better soon

or_swepctnormal_update (2).png

 

Depressing

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Because why not? January is always a torch anymore so let's keep the tradition alive at least for the first few days...

 

Yeah, I think we'll have some pretty impressive positive departures through the first 10 days of the month.

[Jesse]

Looks like some pretty significant positive departures in the Willamette Valley again today.

 

I will say, you were correct that they first few days of this month will make the task of scoring a decently below average January fairly daunting.

 

PDX is +10.8 through the 3rd.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up to 48F so another high in the 50s on the way.

[ShawniganLake]

38F and partly sunny at noon. Seasonably chilly today.

[Deweydog]

Should stay in the 40’s today at PDX. I think the NWS contact called this several weeks ago. Egg on our face!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I will say, you were correct that they first few days of this month will make the task of scoring a decently below average January fairly daunting.

 

PDX is +10.8 through the 3rd.

 

That should obviously start to come down in the next few days, however I do not see very many below average departures coming up in the next 7 days, as even if highs are cool, lows should remain near to above average. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some nice showers moving into the north valley/metro area. 

[Jesse]

Should stay in the 40’s today at PDX. I think the NWS contact called this several weeks ago. Egg on our face!

Looks like it could be a closer call than one might expect for thicknesses in the mid-520, 850s around -5c.

 

C’est la vie for a chilyish airmass with strong onshore flow I suppose.

[Jesse]

Hail shower in Sandy!

 

Y’all gotta admit, whatever happens the next 7-10 days it’s gonna be way more interesting than anything in all of November and December.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like it could be a closer call than one might expect for thicknesses in the mid-520, 850s around -5c.

 

C’est la vie for a chilyish airmass with strong onshore flow I suppose.

 

The airmass trended a little warmer at the last minute. The 528 line only made it to about PDX and is now likely up around Kelso. 

 

Tomorrow looks like only highs in the 44-45 range in the valley from Salem north as the airmass will be slightly cooler and there should be steadier precip. 

[Deweydog]

Looks like it could be a closer call than one might expect for thicknesses in the mid-520, 850s around -5c.

 

Cest la vie for a chilyish airmass with strong onshore flow I suppose.

This is fairly normal. We started the day in the low 40’s in a purely mixed and maritime air mass. If it’s not precipitating it’s pretty hard to not see at least a moderate diurnal change. Might have been better a couple weeks ago when sun angles were a little lower...

[Jesse]

This is fairly normal. We started the day in the low 40’s in a purely mixed and maritime air mass. If it’s not precipitating it’s pretty hard to not see at least a moderate diurnal change. Might have been better a couple weeks ago when sun angles were a little lower...

Crazy, I thought today seemed really abnormal.

[El_Nina]

A nice shower just went through here.

[Deweydog]

Crazy, it thought today seemed really abnormal.

“It” being the GFS 7-8 days ago? Abnormally COLD.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like I picked up about 1/2" of rain overnight. Puts me around 1.2" for the month, normal so far. 

[Jesse]

It being the GFS 7-8 days ago? Abnormally COLD.

A big part of growing up is just making peace with the fact that not everyone can be as smart as you.

[Deweydog]

A big part of growing up is just making peace with the fact that not everyone can be as smart as you.

And heeeeeeeeere we go...

 

I didn’t program the GFS. It’s doing this without my help, Jess.

[Jesse]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hail shower in Sandy!

 

Y’all gotta admit, whatever happens the next 7-10 days it’s gonna be way more interesting than anything in all of November and December.

 

Today has felt almost exactly the same as most of the last 2 months here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My overall thoughts on the pattern for next weekend have not changed in 3-4 days. It will probably look like something similar to January 2002 or 08, maybe January 99 or February 2000. But I think that would be a reasonable solution. The potential is there for it to develop into something a little better such as January 2007 or 12, but those chances before the 15th are relatively low. 

 

In fact I think I would include January 2008 with that second grouping. That time period saw a decent snow event in the south valley which followed a few days of dry and very chilly weather in which SLE bottomed out at 19. 

[Front Ranger]

5 days of torching can easily be eliminated.

[HighlandExperience]

My overall thoughts on the pattern for next weekend have not changed in 3-4 days. It will probably look like something similar to January 2002 or 08, maybe January 99 or February 2000. But I think that would be a reasonable solution. The potential is there for it to develop into something a little better such as January 2007 or 12, but those chances before the 15th are relatively low.

Jan 2012 looks reasonable for Seattle area

[VancouverIslandSouth]

38F and partly sunny at noon. Seasonably chilly today.

 

Currently 41F here with showers. Getting a lot less shadowing than we typically do with cold onshore flow.

[Deweydog]

5 days of torching can easily be eliminated.

Hot (cold) take!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Jan 2012 looks reasonable for Seattle area

 

That was a pretty high performing event for the Seattle area. At face value the 12z GFS could probably pull it off.

[Deweydog]

My overall thoughts on the pattern for next weekend have not changed in 3-4 days. It will probably look like something similar to January 2002 or 08, maybe January 99 or February 2000. But I think that would be a reasonable solution. The potential is there for it to develop into something a little better such as January 2007 or 12, but those chances before the 15th are relatively low.

 

In fact I think I would include January 2008 with that second grouping. That time period saw a decent snow event in the south valley which followed a few days of dry and very chilly weather in which SLE bottomed out at 19.

The blocking was much better later in January 2008 than anything shown realistically on any of the models.

[FroYoBro]

Only a high of 46 here. Not bad. 

 

About to start raining. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The blocking was much better later in January 2008 than anything shown realistically on any of the models.

 

I remember some chatter about a potential arctic blast in the lead up to the cold snap, but was living out of state at the time, so I can't recall the details. Then it followed with an insane foothills snow pattern, so I assume the block was just a little too far off the coast?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

And we have hit 50F again.  Let's see how many 50s we can pull off this Jan?  I'll guess 24 of the 31 days reach 50F or warmer.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

And we have hit 50F again.  Let's see how many 50s we can pull off this Jan?  I'll guess 24 of the 31 days reach 50F or warmer.

 

Eugene had 19 last year and 13 in January 2018.

 

SLE is trying to pull off 3 Januaries in a row with an average max of 50+.

 

Personally I would rather have a cold January and then torch in February if it has to be one or the other. 

[Deweydog]

I remember some chatter about a potential arctic blast in the lead up to the cold snap, but was living out of state at the time, so I can't recall the details. Then it followed with an insane foothills snow pattern, so I assume the block was just a little too far off the coast?

Might be a shock but this was a classic situation where EVERYTHING was aligned for a massive cold snap and we should all die like pigs in hell for doubting him when he is that sure that the we are going to get BLASTED. I’ll give you eight guesses as to who that was...

 

(hint: it wasn’t K%%)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Might be a shock but this was a classic situation where EVERYTHING was aligned for a massive cold snap and we should all die like pigs in hell for doubting him when he is that sure that the we are going to get BLASTED. I’ll give you eight guesses as to who that was...

 

(hint: it wasn’t K%%)

 

The fact it was a legit Nina probably made him even more sure.

[ttt]