Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Jesse]

Today has felt almost exactly the same as most of the last 2 months here.

Great point. CLAIM DEBUNKED.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My weather station informed me it is 16 degrees cooler right now then 24 hours ago. 

[El_Nina]

Eugene had 19 last year and 13 in January 2018.

 

SLE is trying to pull off 3 Januaries in a row with an average max of 50+.

 

Personally I would rather have a cold January and then torch in February if it has to be one or the other.

 

I always prefer it to be cold later in the season because it makes the snowpack last longer into summer. Last year we saw a complete reversal in terms of snowpack once February hit that almost allowed us to be at normal levels come late spring.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

EPS 360 hour total snowfall

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This has a long term feel coming like last Feb. Crazy to think it is even possible to have another long cold spell like that but it looks very possible.

[Jesse]

This has a long term feel coming like last Feb. Crazy to think it is even possible to have another long cold spell like that but it looks very possible.

The late September through late October period was also similar, although obviously too far out of season to bring the goods for the lowlands.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The late September through late October period was also similar, although obviously too far out of season to bring the goods for the lowlands.

The fact that this is coming a month earlier could be huge. 

[TT-SEA]

This has a long term feel coming like last Feb. Crazy to think it is even possible to have another long cold spell like that but it looks very possible.

100% agree.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

EPS 360 hour total snowfall

 

14-km EPS Probability Washington Snowfall 360.png

Not bad. Probably some snowy members in there.

[OysterPrintout]

Not bad. Probably some snowy members in there.

 

 

Looks like Euro likes the Day 11-13 scenario down here.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

 

 

Looks like Euro likes the Day 11-13 scenario down here.

 

Can you pls post EUG, SLE & SEA?

[Jesse]

Some fresh powder and 31 at Government Camp. Took a jaunt up here this afternoon. Looks like more snow showers will be moving in soon.

[Timmy Supercell]

3 years ago today in Klamath Falls I woke up to 18+ inches of snow which fell in as little as 26 hours (5am Jan 3 - 7am Jan 4). This was the most snow in 1 day since January 1993. Events like this are the equivalent to Portland's 2008 or Feb 2019 west of the cascades. 

 

[10 pictures on Imgur]

https://imgur.com/a/ohiP8uW

 

Pics #6 and #7 are on Jan 6th, frosted trees after a low of -19.

 

Pics #8,9,10 are Jan 7th with a depth of 21". 

[Jesse]

[OysterPrintout]

Can you pls post EUG, SLE & SEA?

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

 

 

Thank you! 

[ShawniganLake]

100% agree.

I don’t know. The cold is still 7-8 days away and some are already locking it in for 2-3 weeks beyond that. I guess we will see. How did the eps long range look. GEPS looked pretty deamplified later in week 2.

[TT-SEA]

I don’t know. The cold is still 7-8 days away and some are already locking it in for 2-3 weeks beyond that. I guess we will see. How did the eps long range look. GEPS looked pretty deamplified later in week 2.

Just looked... it does look somewhat de-amplified as well but still cold.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just looked... it does look somewhat de-amplified as well but still cold.

 

 

Sliding east.

[TT-SEA]

Sliding east.

That is later... he asked about day 15.

 

It's better before that time.

[Deweydog]

Overriding theme is energy stubbornly remaining over AK which keeps the EPO from crashing like a Democrat just took the White House.

[Jesse]

Overriding theme is energy stubbornly remaining over AK which keeps the EPO from crashing like a Democrat just took the White House.

Kind of a Niña-ish pattern in some respects.

 

Will be kind to ski areas.

[Deweydog]

Kind of a Niña-ish pattern in some respects.

 

Will be kind to ski areas.

Does have a 2008 vibe.

[Esquimalt]

The timing of that system on the 13th just keeps moving up

[Phil]

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Funerals suck. Sorry that I haven’t been able to track these model runs with you guys. Will join in the fun tomorrow after I fly back home, but from what I can tell, this is as close to a lock pattern/forcing wise as it gets. Lots of wiggle room.

 

One heck of a way to open the decade. Here’s to putting the kibosh on that mid-January curse once and for all.

Sorry you had to go to a funeral.  They do suck.  I could go to a funeral of a stranger and would hate it.  My condolences.

 

And I am looking forward to your input.

[Jesse]

Does have a 2008 vibe.

Not really where I saw this winter going. I figured blocky and dry-ish. Maybe some chill in an overall amplified pattern.

[FroYoBro]

GFS still likes snow in western Washington next Monday. 

[Deweydog]

Not really where I saw this winter going. I figured blocky and dry-ish. Maybe some chill in an overall amplified pattern.

Wouldn’t have guessed it either.

[Jesse]

Wouldn’t have guessed it either.

ENSO rulebook = out the window again?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1213586532633694208

 

Dont know how to embed this Twitter post from Jaya, but a great post.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

 

 

Looks like Euro likes the Day 11-13 scenario down here.

Nice thanks!

[Requiem]

Details still not good for those south of Olympia, but those are bound to change. I'd love to see some more offshore flow...

[Phil]

If you end up being right about MLK I think that will be one of the most accurate long range forecasts this forum has ever seen.... would even put Phil to shame...

FrontalSquall already predicted last winter’s epicness way out in advance. Like in July or something.

 

I’m a dime a dozen these days. #worthless

[Phil]

Just looked at the ENSO forecast and the CFS looks quite confident we will be heading into a Nina this summer. Assuming this winter delivers we could be looking at quite a run of decent winters 2016 - 17 through 2020-21.

I’m not disagreeing necessarily (I have no idea what will happen in the nearer term) but I’m still bullish on the early 2020s for the inception of a strong multiyear niña. Not sure it happens next winter.

 

Also, one of the major NH multidecadal oscillators (PDO/PMM or AMO/AMM) and their associated atmospheric components is likely to flip sharply in 2022, if my theory is correct.

[Deweydog]

ENSO rulebook = out the window again?

Weird year!

[FroYoBro]

264 hours until sticking snow in Washington County.

 

Lock it in. (again)

[Jesse]

Hey Phil, I apologize if my post was in bad taste. Hope it wasn’t anyone super close to you.

[Phil]

Phil thinks Nino.

 

Still could be a great winter though.

I haven’t made a prediction yet, actually.

[Jesse]

^ Higher heights finally make it into Alaska tho!