Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[luvssnow_spokane]

My, oh my... juicy!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You know we are probably going to see some wild models swings the next few days. Hold on. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Oh man... Where's it going to go?

 

 

Look at that CCG!!!

[TacomaWaWx]

You know we are probably going to see some wild models swings the next few days. Hold on.

 

It's already been a few days of wild swings as it is lol.

[OysterPrintout]

Models did point to the early-mid week as the real possibility but this is gonna be some kinda run here.

[Winterdog]

This could be the motherload of snow depending on where that low ends up.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The pattern shown at 252 hrs can be a hood canal snow mega machine. Feb 1995 dropped 36 inches with a pattern like that.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Jesus a 1062 high at hr 258 in western bc.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I bet some ensembles are going to have that block further east which would dump some super cold air on us. 

[Winterdog]

That low is just stationary.  Just pumping moisture into that cold air.

[luvssnow_spokane]

That low is in sit and spin mode...

[MossMan]

1950.

[Winterdog]

Too bad this is an absolute fairytale though.  If half of this run took place it would be good.

[Requiem]

Just kind of sits out there for 24+ hours. Stop teasing us!

Poor Troutdale, Enumclaw, and Bellingham folks— that’s more than a day of frigid and very intense offshore winds.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Come on ridge-bridge!!!

[Weiner Warrior]

I hope it sits there for 30 days

[TacomaWaWx]

This was the best gfs run yet IMO. Looks good in the 7-10 day range as well as after that.

[Deweydog]

2011 back on the table!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Just sits there...

 

[Christensen87]

Huge east wind event showing on the 15th again. Wow.

[TacomaWaWx]

Too bad this is an absolute fairytale though.  If half of this run took place it would be good.

Hours 180-240 alone are pretty good.

[Winterdog]

As long as that low sits there we will slowly warm up, I would rather it moved due east

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Even the model is picking up the insane cross cascade gradient. You can see snow would be super light here in the foothills with the offshore winds screaming. I'd imagine this would be a very cold day, especially given the airmass aloft is cooling...

 

 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Hr 258 to 282 would be a serious region wide 24hr snowfall like we haven't witnessed in a long time.

[GHweatherChris]

Date night for me... will catch up later. No phone allowed!

Thats ok, just take the night off, please. Signed, most of us. PS, your marriage is more important.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Even the model is picking up the insane cross cascade gradient. You can see snow would be super light here in the foothills with the offshore winds screaming. I'd imagine this would be a very cold day, especially given the airmass aloft is cooling...

 

 

 

 

Arctic air blowing over the Cascades pouring down the McKenzie River and at least a few hours of some flakes.  Looks good!

[GHweatherChris]

SNOW!! Arctic air not needed under the right circumstances.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

But still...all the action after day 10...

 

Just keeps getting pushed back.

[runninthruda206]

How’d the run look for this weekend? Did timing move up?

[Blizzard777]

Date night for me... will catch up later. No phone allowed!

Good man 

[Winterdog]

But still...all the action after day 10...

I understand that your area is getting the action later but the real thing is starting two days earlier up north than it was in previous runs.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How’d the run look for this weekend? Did timing move up?

 

Non-event though. 

[Requiem]

Mark Nelsen is on board!!!!

 

I'm still looking for a source on this one.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I understand that your area is getting the action later but the real thing is starting two days earlier up north than it was in previous runs.  

 

It is? Next weekend looked really watered down on this run. 

[Blizzard777]

Some cold air out over the ocean too... 

winter storm warning for the fishes! 

[MossMan]

Snow from Shawnigan Lake to Sacramento!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Snow from Shawnigan Lake to Sacramento!

The farmer forecast was right!

[Gradient Keeper]

The key changes on the 00z GFS to being much colder, snowier is Day 4.5 to 5 the low was 8-9mb weaker than 12z. This resulted in not shoving the bitter arctic air eastward out of Eastern Alaska, Northern BC and phased better allowing the bitter air to plunge southward in BC. Right now 00z GEM Day 4.5 is 9mb weaker with the low than 12z. Good trends! C'MON!!!!

 

00z ECMWF in 49 minutes

[El_Nina]

I'm still looking for a source on this one.

Hmmmm....

[TacomaWaWx]

But still...all the action after day 10...

 

Just keeps getting pushed back.

Main importance of this run is that sh*t starts going down up here in WA now in a week roughly. Very good sign for those to the South in OR...it's likely going to go south fast. timing has moved up here which means it's more likely.