Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[snow_wizard]

1954 and 2012 have the top two single day snow falls at Silver Falls. 

 

1962 and 2004 were much colder down here than those two events. 

 

Kind of hedging my bets on the cold / snow ratio on this.  In actuality a blend of the GFS and ECMWF would be amazing for us.

[TT-SEA]

It does not seem like there is much doubt about cold and snow at this point. Longetivity is the next question. Many don't care about that now... and that makes sense to me. I get it. Any posts I make about longetivty should be ignored by them. I do find that part interesting though.

[snow_wizard]

Because it's usually around snowy/cold events that your natural tendency to throw in certain posts to stir stuff up starts becoming more apparent. At that point I'll generally take a few posts to call you out on your sh*t but then stop fairly quickly because I've done this rodeo for 10+ years and know it's not worth it.

 

Otherwise, over the course of the year, you are generally pleasant and easy to co-exist with on the forum. Besides your Seahawks impending doom stuff... That gets old every now and then too.

 

Lets' face it...we all get testy and emotional at times like this.

[Requiem]

It does not seem like there is much doubt about cold and snow at this point. Longetivity is the next question. Many don't care about that now... and that makes sense to me. I get it. Any posts I make about longetivty should be ignored by them. I do find that part interesting though.

 

I think it'll have some snow/cold (maybe for my area, who knows), but it could be pretty long-lived or maybe 3-4 days. We have no clue yet as to those details.

[TT-SEA]

Because it's usually around snowy/cold events that your natural tendency to throw in certain posts to stir stuff up starts becoming more apparent. At that point I'll generally take a few posts to call you out on your sh*t but then stop fairly quickly because I've done this rodeo for 10+ years and know it's not worth it.

 

Otherwise, over the course of the year, you are generally pleasant and easy to co-exist with on the forum. Besides your Seahawks impending doom stuff... That gets old every now and then too.

I do think my posts become over-amplified to you at times like this though.

 

I agree 100% on the Seahawks stuff!

[Jesse]

Even a day of snow and cold is far from a lock at this point. We've all lived here long enough to know that. 

 

Feel free to forgo liking this post, guys.

[Timmy Supercell]

1954 and 2012 have the top two single day snow falls at Silver Falls. 

 

1962 and 2004 were much colder down here than those two events. 

 

I haven't come close to some of this area's 1-day snowfalls. On Thanksgiving in 1961 we had a 16" inch day, I'm sure there's also been a few 20+ inchers in January over the years. So far my personal most impressive one was 12.4" on 01/03/2017.

 

I could probably dig up some really nice 72 hour totals however, in 2011 and 2012.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

ECMWF control takes that mid-week low into OR/CA border.

 

Is there a frame for that or does someone pls have ensemble charts for EUG, SLE, & PDX?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 12z JMA looks interesting for early next week. Shows a low coming onshore with cold air in place.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/jma_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_204_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/jma_amer_12/TT_GZ_UU_VV_204_0850.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/jma_amer_12/TT_GZ_UU_VV_216_0850.gif

[snow_wizard]

Even a day of snow and cold is far from a lock at this point. We've all lived here long enough to know that. 

 

Feel free to forgo liking this post, guys.

 

We're pretty close to locked in for something.

[snow_wizard]

The 12z JMA looks interesting for early next week. Shows a low coming onshore with cold air in place.

 

 

The JMA has a new fan! 

[snow_wizard]

Real talk from me for a moment.

 

I don’t think this plays out even remotely close to snow and cold and I know a lot of you don’t want to hear it.

 

- the block moving too far east or a smidge to the west will ruin this.

- surface maps from the Euro have pointed out a realistic solution, some flurries in the suburbs and a day with highs in the upper 30s

- only one off models and fringe ensemble members have any significant snow

- any serious cold relies on the GFS being right, you know, that’s super reliable model

 

I enjoy people’s enthusiasm and I love people posting and sharing fantasy maps, but maybe I need to stop encouraging it when I share this stuff on twitter.

 

Being serious here, but for once I am with the “doubters”.

 

Well I'll be dipped.  I respectfully disagree.  The JMA is on board too now (and that is not my only reason).

 

Are you really sure about the even remotely close part?

[Requiem]

Real talk from me for a moment.

 

I don’t think this plays out even remotely close to snow and cold and I know a lot of you don’t want to hear it.

 

- the block moving too far east or a smidge to the west will ruin this.

- surface maps from the Euro have pointed out a realistic solution, some flurries in the suburbs and a day with highs in the upper 30s

- only one off models and fringe ensemble members have any significant snow

- any serious cold relies on the GFS being right, you know, that’s super reliable model

 

I enjoy people’s enthusiasm and I love people posting and sharing fantasy maps, but maybe I need to stop encouraging it when I share this stuff on twitter.

 

Being serious here, but for once I am with the “doubters”.

 

I would have agreed, if not for the fact that the EURO is also showing some sort of lowland snow (down here at least), as are EPS and GFS ensemble members (a sizable amount for this far out). I agree that it's precarious, but it's hard not to ignore how consistent things have been.

[Jesse]

We're pretty close to locked in for something.

We’ll see. The large scale trends definitely seem to be in our favor right now. But of course, the devil will always be in the details.

 

Being reluctant to call it a lock (as crowd pleasing as that may be) doesn’t mean I think it won’t happen. But calling anything a lock at 7 or more days out will always be silly no matter how good things look.

[TT-SEA]

Well I'll be dipped.  I respectfully disagree.  The JMA is on board too now (and that is not my only reason).

 

Are you really sure about the even remotely close part?

 

 

Sarcasm Jim.   

 

Its 90% of what he posts on here.  

[Jesse]

[TT-SEA]

Not being sarcastic here.

 

 

Well the ECMWF shows much more than what you are saying.     That is just a start.

[Requiem]

https://twitter.com/AlbrechtJay/status/1213920152695099392

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Even a day of snow and cold is far from a lock at this point. We've all lived here long enough to know that. 

 

Feel free to forgo liking this post, guys.

 

This is actually a great post. 

[snow_wizard]

Not being sarcastic here.

 

The thing that makes me wonder is you said we won't even be remotely close.  That's pretty out there considering the models.  Keep in mind the 12z EPS was easily 2C colder with the trough next weekend / early next vs the 0z, and the control is extremely cold.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

48F at the moment  Let's see if we can hit 50F again. We are at +7.3 departure for the month so far.

[Jesse]

This is actually a great post.

 

Thanks! At first I was considering saying it was a lock in order to build up some good PR so I could get a little more leeway for some hard core troll posts in a few hours, but decided against it.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I was thinking about saying it was a lock in order to build up some good PR so I could get a little more leeway for some hard core troll posts in a few hours, but decided against it.

 

Smart move.  Don't let one's guard down.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3000ft in the Olympic Mountains. About 14 inches of fresh.

[Phil]

I’m still trying to figure out how it shows us getting cold here without Alaska roasting!!!! ♨

As long as there’s no TPV/vortex up there, it’s fine.

 

Had to dislodge that first..and it took several weeks to accomplish that. Usually tropical forcing would have transitioned into something less favorable by the time that was accomplished but in this case we have a transitioning low pass/background regime, so it’s a longer duration process.

[snow_wizard]

I feel like I got played by iFred again.  I can never tell when he's pulling our chain.

[Jesse]

3000ft in the Olympic Mountains. About 14 inches of fresh.

 

Awesome pics!

 

Where in the Olympics is this? We drove up the Big Quilcene on Wednesday and there were just patches around 3,000. Quite the turnaround!

[snow_wizard]

Taking a last look at the 12z ECMWF control run shows the cold air being a bit delayed next weekend but starting Sunday evening it is a fair amount colder than the 00z at 850mb through the end of the run.

 

If that verifies I will be very happy.  Prolonged cold with snow on the ground is the best.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting thing about those years you mentioned Jim, is all of them were great events here, but none of them were really cold Januaries (The 1962 arctic blast was great, but there was a lot of torching that month.). 

[Weiner Warrior]

Everyone must have moved over to the Tim Banter thread. Pretty quiet in here now.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Everyone must have moved over to the Tim Banter thread. Pretty quiet in here now.

 

Hawks playoff game.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Minnesota a cold weather team just beat New Orleans a warm weather team. Plus a guy named Rudolph caught the game winning pass. Good sign for the Uncle GFS!!!

[snow_wizard]

Interesting thing about those years you mentioned Jim, is all of them were great events here, but none of them were really cold Januaries (The 1962 arctic blast was great, but there was a lot of torching that month.). 

 

That is true.  1954 was pretty solid up here, because it stayed cold for two weeks.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Real talk from me for a moment.

 

I don’t think this plays out even remotely close to snow and cold and I know a lot of you don’t want to hear it.

 

- the block moving too far east or a smidge to the west will ruin this.

- surface maps from the Euro have pointed out a realistic solution, some flurries in the suburbs and a day with highs in the upper 30s

- only one off models and fringe ensemble members have any significant snow

- any serious cold relies on the GFS being right, you know, that’s super reliable model

 

I enjoy people’s enthusiasm and I love people posting and sharing fantasy maps, but maybe I need to stop encouraging it when I share this stuff on twitter.

 

Being serious here, but for once I am with the “doubters”.

You might be right about Oregon and Southern Washington and wrong about Everett North and foothills. Pretty broad brush.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The JMA has a new fan!

Looks like -18C to YVR, -15C to SEA and -13C to PDX. Brrrrrr!

[TT-SEA]

You might be right about Oregon and Southern Washington and wrong about Everett North and foothills. Pretty broad brush.

ECMWF specifically says he is wrong about Oregon too.

[DiBiYoSi]

After what happened down here (pdx) last Feb, I’m team not counting any eggs yet. I’m just hoping the chickens stay in the coop for now. I’ll get excited once the GOLU starts sowing signs.

[Omegaraptor]

PDX has nosedived down to 43ºF with heavy rain. No 50 there.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Awesome pics!

 

Where in the Olympics is this? We drove up the Big Quilcene on Wednesday and there were just patches around 3,000. Quite the turnaround!

Above high steel bridge near spider lake. South end of the canal up the Skokomish river valley.

[Jesse]

PDX has nosedived down to 43ºF with heavy rain. No 50 there.

Cool to see them put a rabbit back into the hat.