Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[TT-SEA]

Snow keeps going in Oregon into Monday night... well placed between cold air to the north and moisture riding along the boundary.

 

[Perturbed Member]

500mb pattern on the euro continues to look good. Improved from previous runs as it follows the GFS. Good to see some improvements on surface details too.

[Gradient Keeper]

Good EURO run and I know I don't have to say it, but if that low Day 4-5 was weaker this run would blast us at just Day 6-7.

[wxmet]

The 12z Euro looks very similar to the GFS now. A weak system moving into central Oregon Monday/Tuesday and then the coldest air finally moves in after that. 

 

Exciting stuff.

 

 

Feels like it can only continue to improve at this point. Would like to see it pick up on the CZ for Seattle this weekend.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Central valley special for Monmouth and Salem!

[Jesse]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Substantially colder at 850mb by Monday morning.

 

Yeah, wow. Lets continue this trend into tonight!

[Timmy]

We’ve lost the euro... to the gfs

[Gradient Keeper]

Day  Oh shaping up nicely as that system drops south Day 10+

 

[Chewbacca Defense]

One of the weather apps I use (weather mate) has 26.7" of snow falling here in Bellingham, starting Wednesday night.  I am starting to get curious about things starting Wednesday up here in Whatcom County, someone posted a model trend showing the Wednesday system trending colder through the model runs.  I think it was posted yesterday?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh My goodness

 

 

[Jesse]

Day 10 kind of drops the ball, keeps the coldest air bottled up in BC. But obviously things can and will change.

 

Lots of snow before then on this run.

[FroYoBro]

Big cave.

 

USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA

[wxmet]

ECMWF is showing the stronger system the GFS has been advertising. Regional snow event at the end of the run.

[Deweydog]

MINOR differences around the Aleutians at day 10.

[Perturbed Member]

The big snow maker low that the GFS has been showing now on the euro?

 

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS in 2 hours 32 minutes!

 

Root for a weaker low Day 4 to 4.5! IF so arctic air is coming much sooner by Day 6.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Snow keeps going in Oregon into Monday night... well placed between cold air to the north and moisture riding along the boundary.

 

Nice. Going to be fun runs ahead to see where the snow falls.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Oh My goodness

 

 

Not bad.

[Gradient Keeper]

A long ways to go, but promising. Cautiously optimistic.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well we are still tied, but we have the ball inside the red zone. First and 10 at the 17 yard line. 

[TT-SEA]

Day 10 is the best set up I have seen on any ECMWF run for the Seattle area.

 

Unfortunately the run ends on the morning of day 10... but a classic overrunning situation evolving at that time.

[Randyc321]

Nice. Going to be fun runs ahead to see where the snow falls.

 

Good couple of days to trend North.  I'm just sayin'  (go North!)

[Jesse]

Good couple of days to trend North.  I'm just sayin'  (go North!)

Yup! Hoping it landfalls around Ketchikan.

[TT-SEA]

Also... previous ECMWF runs had been delaying the cold air and the wind shift to north. This run speeds up the timing significantly and now shows that happening on Sunday.

[TacomaWaWx]

Couldn't ask for much more from the euro. Big time step towards the gfs.

[The Swamp]

I don't want anyone mad at me but this looks like an Oregon special again.

 

Maybe some light snow up in Washington.

 

Of course at my house it looks like a rain snow mix and maybe some freezing rain.

[Perturbed Member]

Last 3 GFS runs for snow

 

 

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Lots of time for details to change but I'd be happy to see OR get some snow after the major shaft last year. Still could be a WA event in the end but we will see. Honestly think everyone or the vast majority will score this time at some point. Maybe not all at the same time but we will see. Promising signs!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

ECMWF is showing the stronger system the GFS has been advertising. Regional snow event at the end of the run.

The big snow maker low that the GFS has been showing now on the euro?

 

Snow for everyone!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Well we are still tied, but we have the ball inside the red zone. First and 10 at the 17 yard line. 

 

But can you sign the unrestricted free agents to long-term deals?

[Timmy]

Last 3 GFS runs for snow

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020010500/gfs_asnow_nwus_65.png[/img

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020010506/gfs_asnow_nwus_64.png[/img

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020010512/gfs_asnow_nwus_63.png/img]

Wow, If I miss out on 2 feet of snow, I’m never going to Hawaii again

[Perturbed Member]

Total snow on the 12z euro

[Deweydog]

I don't want anyone mad at me but this looks like an Oregon special again.

 

Maybe some light snow up in Washington.

 

Of course at my house it looks like a rain snow mix and maybe some freezing rain.

Yeah, you’re officially f*cked.

[GHweatherChris]

**** Oregon.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Good couple of days to trend North. I'm just sayin' (go North!)

You never want to be in the bullseye this far out. It will change next run.

[paulstorm]

Seconded. The constant bickering, page after page, year after year, is extremely annoying. I can only speak for myself; this activity keeps me off the board. So you have the same 10 people going round and round in circles for eternity.

I've been lurking here for years and rarely post, but let me just say this about the ridiculous Tim criticism.

1) You've all added about 100x more attention and energy to these "negative" posts than they would've had if people just read them and moved on. So now 80% of the posts are about how you don't want to hear certain posts. Seems like the whining is doing exactly the opposite of what the whiners claim they want, MAYBE they just like having something to complain about because they love being a victim.

 

2) We all say we love to see long range forecasts that show major events; wind, snow, etc. Most of us will add "yeah, we know this is probably a fantasy, but it's fun to look at." Why is that okay, but posting long range forecasts showing moderate trends suddenly unrealistic and inappropriate?

 

3) Tim can't make you feel a certain way, you choose to feel how you feel. So giving this guy as much power as you do is your own problem and it's your personal choice.

 

4) From what I can gather, Tim doesn't control the weather, so, he can downplay whatever he wants and it's not going to change what is actually going to happen. You might say "Well he's dumping cold water on all of the excitement!!" to that I would say, go read number 3 ... he only dumps cold water on it if you let him. 

 

5) I don't know Tim, never met Tim, never talked to Tim, don't even know if Tim is his real name. You guys all seem to have a major crush on this dude and you really NEED his approval. Why not ignore the posts you don't like if you are on here for the hype, if you're on here for the updates know that some updates may not be what you want to see.  But, by all means, get over your obsession with what Tim posts and stop droning on and on about his posts that you don't like, all it does is promote said posts.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z WRF

 

Saturday 4 PM Cold air filtering south

 

 

1 AM Next Sunday cold air dropping south quickly

 

4 PM Next Sunday - BIG LEAGUE arctic blast

[Deweydog]

**** Oregon.

Way too much terrain down there.