1/10 - 1/11 Plains/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm

[Grizzcoat]

Interesting take from WPC

 

[Madtown]

^hmmmm

[Hawkeye]

Uh oh, the 00z Euro may be going southeast a bit.  The southern wave is faster.

[Money]

Uh oh, the 00z Euro may be going southeast a bit.  The southern wave is faster.

At 42 the different between 12z and 0z isn’t noticeable at all

[Hawkeye]

At 42 the different between 12z and 0z isn’t noticeable at all

 

Yeah, the faster speed of the wave has been eliminated by hour 48.  This run should be fine.

 

Update:  Actually, now it's looking like it could be better than last run as the southern wave is a bit north and the northern wave is out of the way earlier.

[Money]

Yeah, the faster speed of the wave has been eliminated by hour 48.  This run should be fine.

 

Update:  Actually, now it's looking like it could be better than last run.

Looks decent. More cold air precip although it’s a tad East of 12z

[jcwxguy]

Good run for Hawkeye

[Money]

Milwaukee gets slammed

 

16 inches through hr 78 at 10:1 ratios

[hlcater]

Interestingly, the main axis of heavy snow is slightly NW and narrower.

[Money]

I see almost 2.0 inches of qpf as all snow in SE WI with temps in the 20-25 range. Three runs in a row for euro in similar location

[Madtown]

[Hawkeye]

It's a solid track, but the low doesn't really rev up until Wisconsin.

 

The Euro shows snow only lasting about five hours here on Saturday.  That puts a limit on the accumulation.

[bud2380]

Euro weakens over eastern Iowa then strengthens into Wisconsin. Sounds about right. LOL. Still solid snow totals but not as widespread and wave two a little weaker. Still lays down 2-3” from wave 1 though.

[Madtown]

11.9" here at 10:1 pretty crazy stuff

[Money]

11.9" here at 10:1 pretty crazy stuff

Temps are in the 17-23 range it looks like. Not your typical 10:1 storm

 

Would love to see kuchera ratios lol

[hlcater]

Temps are in the 17-23 range it looks like. Not your typical 10:1 storm

 

Would love to see kuchera ratios lol

 

Inversion aloft would temper ratios some.

[Tom]

00z Euro crushes SE Wisco...my goodness, if there is any time to dust off the "snow magnet" I think this storm would be it!

 

 

[Tom]

At Tom

 

Thought the 12z UK was going to lead the way back to a more SE solution, but it's failed on that account already this winter. Now the HP you were confident of this morning is again too far east allowing this thing to cut hard. Same old story, eh? 

The strength of the HP is not entirely that strong with it being only a 1038mb (ish)...unfortunately, I'll be riding the line only be a few counties myself and it will all come down to how strong the SLP will end up becoming to overcome any steering by the HP.  If it were a 1040mb or stronger then we would be in business but its not overwhelmingly strong at this point.  Needless to say, I'll watching the significant snows set up extremely close at this time.  While the GFS looks great, along with the 00z Ukie, I did see some improvement with last nights 00z Euro compared to the previous 00z cycle.

 

Meanwhile, after looking into the data in more depth, looks like the GEFS are shifting SE with the heavy rains from the 1st wave and tightening up the secondary wave with a stronger SLP that bodes well for colder air aloft and generating more SN than FZR/Mix scenario across N IL.  In all honesty, I think S MI is going to miss out on this one bud but maybe some wrap around snows.  Still a few days to go to see some subtle shifts but will it matter for your area?  Hopefully you don't get the FZR scenario.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Taking a look at the GEFS SLP trends, I like the fact that its seeing some strengthening in the HP to our North.  Will it continue???

 

The 00z EPS SLP mean track is very similar to the GEFS.  At this point, I think E IA into S/SE WI will be near the jack zone. This may end up being one of the largest snow storms since GHD-I for E IA.

 

The 00z EPS snow mean is below...

[dubuque473]

DVN has me down for 7”. That would be nice.

[Tom]

06z GFS....

 

.

 

 

06z GEFS members....

 

 

[dubuque473]

I am about 3 feet from the red 

[Money]

06z NAM looks like 0z euro with 15-20+ in southern WI

[Tom]

06z GEFS...

 

 

 

 

[Stacsh]

This is awful. GRR basically going with all rain and sleet. Missing the heavy sn by 30 miles.

[Tom]

LOT's take...

 

[Tom]

The main energy of this system is just making it on shore into N CA...

 

 

[Clinton]

Given the combination of ice and snow I may reach warning level criteria.

[Clinton]

NWS KC morning disc.

This morning a upper level shortwave ejecting out from a upper leveltrough across the central Rockies is moving out into the centralPlains forcing a cold front towards the area. The pressure gradientcontinues to tighten across the forecast area in response todeepening low pressure moving into northern Kansas City. This willlead to a unseasonably warm and windy day with highs in the mid 50sto lower 60s with southwesterly winds gusting to 30-40 mph. Outahead of the front this morning shallow moisture will streamnorthward into the area on a stout southwesterly LLJ. This willprovide for some drizzle or light showers. Late this afternooninto tonight, the cold front will move into the area providingweak convergence and more widespread showers with the betterchances for showers across the southeastern CWA and less likelyacross the northwestern CWA. By Friday the cold front will residesouth of the area however, initially CAA behind the front will beweak so temperatures will remain above freezing during the dayFriday. This will be key as during the day a strong low level jetwill develop across the southeastern Plains will nose into thearea overriding the cold front. Heavy rain will be possiblethroughout the the day Friday and Friday night as PWAT will be inthe 1.00"-1.25" range which is in the 99th percentile and 250-300%of normal. With several rounds of heavy rain expected across thesouthern CWA Thursday night through Friday night there will thepotential for those areas to experience 2-3" of liquidprecipitation and as such a flash flood watch has been issued.Friday evening a surface low develops along the front across thesoutheastern Kansas/northeastern Oklahoma border. This will tightenthe pressure gradient along the cold front ushering strong CAAadvection. This will begin to drop temperatures below freezing fromnorthwest to southeast as we go through the course of Friday night.Model soundings continue to advertise a strong warm nose of 5-7Cdegrees. This will lead to a freezing rain scenario Friday night.The warm nose aloft will erode from northwest to southeast as a850mb elevated front slowly moves through the CWA. However, iceamounts on the order of a few hundredths of an inch across thenorthwestern CWA to 0.1"-0.25" will be possible across the southernCWA. By Saturday morning, precipitation is expected to transition toall snow as the main upper level trough moves through the area. Someof this snow may be moderate to heavy as a deformation band behindthe upper low is being advertised with PWATs still in the 0.5"range. Consequently areas south and east of a St Joseph toPrinceton, Missouri line could receive 3 to 6 inch of snow with 1 to3 inches possible north and west of that line. A winter stormadvisory or watch will need to be issued with the next package.

[Clinton]

FWIW the 6z ICON went way SE

[Tom]

Interesting comments from LOT wrt to the low level cold air seeping farther south into the area...

 

 

 

....offering us a hint that this shallow and dense
arctic airmass may make more headway into our area than would
otherwise be expected. With this in mind, have trended
temperatures overall cooler and a bit quicker than the previous
forecast. As a result of this, showing a changeover to freezing
rain and sleet into areas north and west of a Mendota to Lake
Forest line through the late-evening and overnight. This
precipitation has the potential to bring a threat for freezing
rain, sleet, and eventually snow (possibly with some significant
accumulations of the former) to these locales through Saturday
morning.

 

They seem to think there is a higher potential for Snow across the area...

 

 

 

Overnight guidance now has come into better agreement depicting a
deep surface low materializing immediately to our south and east
Saturday night and into Sunday, with increasing support for a
period of what could be fairly heavy deformation band snowfall
with forecast soundings depicting a very deep and saturated
dendritic growth zone, steepening and (at times) convective lapse
rates through the overnight hours. Depending on the ultimate storm
track, the dryslot could pose an issue for us, but for the latest
forecast, have gradually begun to increase snowfall amounts during
this period as the column rapidly dynamically cools with the
approach of the main PV anomaly. The snowfall threat could persist
into the morning hours on Sunday, but the potential window for the
heaviest and steadiest snowfall looks to be done around sunrise on
Sunday.

[Clinton]

Interesting comments from LOT wrt to the low level cold air seeping farther south into the area...

 

 

They seem to think there is a higher potential for Snow across the area...

12z runs today should be able to lock this in, Interesting this mornings ICON jumped SE.

[Clinton]

6z Euro

[Tom]

6z Euro

 

Please come down a few more counties...S/SE Wisco is golden though....the lake enhancement is going to be wild, esp with AN water temps...man, I can see places getting buried up that way.

[Clinton]

Please come down a few more counties...S/SE Wisco is golden though....the lake enhancement is going to be wild, esp with AN water temps...man, I can see places getting buried up that way.

You just need a slight shift SE.  This run gives me .80 frz and 7.5 in of snow, it that verifies this will be wild.

[GDR]

Wow parts of Illinois is looking at 3-5 inches of rain that’s crazy in Jan

[Tom]

12z runs today should be able to lock this in, Interesting this mornings ICON jumped SE.

Should be an interesting day of runs...I've seen, at times, bigger shifts once the energy ejects out of the 4 corners region.  Not sure if its the mountain torque that causes this by the models but I've seen it happen before.  Gary always mentions we have to see how the storm develops once its out in the southern Plains.  Nonetheless, this is going to be one hellova storm with a wide variety of impacts.  Not to mention, the severe wx threat down south!  The amount of moisture being thrown out there is insane.  Imagine this storm in early March when you have the battle of the seasons.  Hmmmm...

 

[Tom]

03z SREF's...

 

[jlp]

Please come down a few more counties...S/SE Wisco is golden though....the lake enhancement is going to be wild, esp with AN water temps...man, I can see places getting buried up that way.

That map is incredible! it's been a long time since I have seen a storm like that forecasted around here. From storms like this in the past, I think you still are very likely to see some decent snow out of this.

[Money]

4 runs in a row that the euro just destroys us here. Gfs/NAm with 12+

[james1976]

I reallllllyyyyyyyy hate near misses. It is the worst