1/10 - 1/11 Plains/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm

[jlp]

4 runs in a row that the euro just destroys us here. Gfs/NAm with 12+

Awesome! Almost seems surreal. If the amounts models are spitting out do verify, I believe this would be our biggest hit since GHD 1.

[Tom]

06z GEFS jogged NW with more amped members...it’s also slower and allows it to cut more as HP to the north slides east quicker. Not good trends here per se.

[Tom]

That map is incredible! it's been a long time since I have seen a storm like that forecasted around here. From storms like this in the past, I think you still are very likely to see some decent snow out of this.

.

 

Good luck up there! Could this storm break some records?

[Money]

06z GEFS jogged NW with more amped members...it’s also slower and allows it to cut more as HP to the north slides east quicker. Not good trends here per se.

Looks like several sub 990 L. 0z euro got down to about 990

[Clinton]

6z EPS mean

[East Dubzz]

I don’t dislike the current trends.

[Stormhunter87]

06z NAM saying we are back in the game. I wish but not hopeful.

[bud2380]

12z nam with heavy sleet for Iowa city

[East Dubzz]

12z nam with heavy sleet for Iowa city

 

On the first wave, though, right? 

[james1976]

Looks like 2 waves on NAM?

[james1976]

NAM had 1 wave yesterday

[Money]

Nam is interesting..

[james1976]

Looks like the NAM wants to throw snow a bit further west into IA compared to 6z

[Sciascia]

I’d say my towel is about ready to be thrown in for pretty much all of N IL regarding significant snow potential. I’ll wait until the 12z Euro, though.

[Tom]

NW trend may be legit...SREF’s/NAM picking it up

[mlgamer]

After four consecutive runs of giving me epic snowfalls (9", 16" 13", 11") the 12z NAM now only gives me 1".

 

Good grief...

[Stormhunter87]

Hmm maybe in luck, 12z really putting Omaha and western Iowa back in the game.

[james1976]

Should be sampled right? It's the first of the 12z runs

[Stormhunter87]

3k doesn't agree :/

[Money]

Nam has heavy snow here followed by sleet and then heavy snow on the backside

 

Still showing 12+ even with sleet mixing in

[East Dubzz]

NAM certainly would cause a mess around here. 

[Madtown]

this sucker is gonna give me rain yet.

[Stacsh]

Can't even get a decent snow in SMI anymore.  Not even Lake effect.  Good luck to those in the path of the HVY SN.  It will be Minnesota by the time it's done.  

[Tom]

12z NAM...

 

[St Paul Storm]

Des Moines to LaCrosse jack zone on the 12z? Wow. Plus near 20” by Green Bay. Packers gonna need to hire the town folk to shovel before the game.

[BMT]

3km NAM more SE that NAM.  Looks similar to other models.  

[Sciascia]

Any statisticians here have the last time Chicago got 3 inches of rain in January?

[Clinton]

9z SREF jumps NW

[bud2380]

yeah, big jump NW on the NAM, but it's also the NAM.  I certainly don't want the potential several inches of sleet it's showing for my area and then 6" of snow on top of it.  

[GDR]

Loving the trends

[james1976]

14" for me and 16" at Waterloo. Not buying it. It's the NAM after all. Should be sampled though.

[Tom]

9z SREF jumps NW

That about sums it up...at this rate, Grizz is going to get get hit when just a couple days ago he thought he was out of the game! Just teasing Grizz, love ya man! #beingreal

[james1976]

NAM has always been NW with this thing

[St Paul Storm]

14" for me and 16" at Waterloo. Not buying it. It's the NAM after all. Should be sampled though.

First run to be sampled was the 12z NAM. Yeah it’s the NAM, but it might be the first to see where this is actually going.

[Money]

First run to be sampled was the 12z NAM. Yeah it’s the NAM, but it might be the first to see where this is actually going.

You’re going to reel this one yet

[St Paul Storm]

You’re going to reel this one yet

No shot. Not this time. Flurries at best.

[East Dubzz]

No way it can go further NW because of that high pressure, right?

 

/s

[james1976]

Models are all over the place. Almost to the point of being useless for specific location. At least for mine. Snowfall forecasts for KC based on most recent runs of various models:

 

NAM 3.9 with heavier stuff 200 miles north

NAM 12K 2 with heavier off to the north

GFS 6.3 with more to the SE

Canadian 9.2 With KC in the bullseye

ICON 0.0 with snow to the SE

Euro 7.5 with KC in the bullseye

Yeah but 12z runs should all be sampled today. We'll see what Euro does.

[Money]

Icon is still really weak and south

[bud2380]

Nice write up by Terry Swails

 

 

https://www.tswails.com/single-post/2020/01/09/COMPLEX-WINTER-STORM-ON-THE-TABLE