1/10 - 1/11 Plains/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm

[Clinton]

ICON is SE geeez!

[bud2380]

3k NAM and this is not the end of the system at hour 60

 

 

[james1976]

NAM has 2 waves (or at least a bit of a lull) so that first wave helps out with our totals in IA.

[bud2380]

6z Canadian

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_06/accum/SN_000-084_0000.gif

[bud2380]

French model. Looks amazing.

 

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/arpege_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_078_0000.gif

[Clinton]

12z ICON looks weird and has trouble developing a trowel, I would say through this run in the trash.

[East Dubzz]

12z ICON looks weird and has trouble developing a trowel, I would say through this run in the trash.

 

I always looking at every model, but the ICON is probably the model I care the least about. Seems to be wacky.

[East Dubzz]

When did the French model become a thing? Did I miss something?

[james1976]

12z ICON looks weird and has trouble developing a trowel, I would say through this run in the trash.

Is this model ever right? Hard to buy it as it's very different from the other model solutions.

[bud2380]

When did the French model become a thing? Did I miss something?

 

ha ha! It's been on the Meteocentre site for a couple of years, but for some reason hasn't gained traction. LOL.  

[Clinton]

It has it's moments but it hasn't been good this year.  It and the NAM have struggled beyond 36 hrs.

 

I always looking at every model, but the ICON is probably the model I care the least about. Seems to be wacky.

 

 

Is this model ever right? Hard to buy it as it's very different from the other model solutions.

[bud2380]

GFS initializing.  I'd love for it to look like the 6z, but 50-75 miles further west.  

[Iowawx]

I may have been premature in writting off this storm yesterday. Based on the Euro/NAM, things are could possibly be coming together for a nice snowstorm this weekend. 

[Mi_Matthew]

ICON gives me hope for an epic changeover in SEMI with the second wave. But, it is the ICON...

[Stormhunter87]

Is this model ever right? Hard to buy it as it's very different from the other model solutions.

It's good for sniffing out storms that's about it.

[Stacsh]

GFS is juiced up

[bud2380]

GFS still very progressive with the lead wave.  

[Money]

Gfs looks really strong through hr 54

[OKwx2k4]

00z GFS. Has anyone heard from OKweather

Heh...

I'm still around. Lol. I'm looking at this storm now actually. Starting to look interesting.

[bud2380]

at 54 hours looks very similar to the 6z run.  At 60 hours also looking similar. Definitely not way NW like the NAM.

[East Dubzz]

Second wave appears to be about the same as far as track goes.

[OKwx2k4]

Whoa...

 

Looks very nice right there.

[East Dubzz]

Actually very similar to the 06z. Maybe less juiced in SE Iowa.

[Stacsh]

GFS NAILS E. WIsconsin.  

[Niko]

Very busy day today w meetings, but real quick, I do think that cold air will funnel into the storm sat nite and provide snow (couple of inches in mby).

[bud2380]

very similar to 6z, no shift west at all.

 

 

[East Dubzz]

Didn't realize it before, but the GFS has this as a very fast moving storm. 

[Sciascia]

very similar to 6z, no shift west at all.

 

 

This is all snow, right? I know Tropical Tidbits includes sleet in their snow maps, which honestly makes for some ludicrous maps. Like this one from this same GFS:

[bud2380]

So we have the NAM which will likely be on the NW side of guidance and the GFS which seems to be the furthest SE (and has been for days).  Let's see if the Canadian, UK, and Euro come somewhere in between.  Currently I'm getting 6" on the NAM and 6" on the GFS just on the east edge of the NAM and west edge of the GFS.  So just meet in the middle guys and call it a day.   

[james1976]

NAM 14"

GFS half inch

Alright then....

[East Dubzz]

So we have the NAM which will likely be on the NW side of guidance and the GFS which seems to be the furthest SE (and has been for days).  Let's see if the Canadian, UK, and Euro come somewhere in between.  Currently I'm getting 6" on the NAM and 6" on the GFS just on the east edge of the NAM and west edge of the GFS.  So just meet in the middle guys and call it a day. 

 

Would not be shocked to see a solution in the middle. That's usually what ends up happening.

[Tom]

Whoa...gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_9.png

 

Looks very nice right there.

Glad to see you in here buddy!  Hope you get a win...

[BMT]

So we have the NAM which will likely be on the NW side of guidance and the GFS which seems to be the furthest SE (and has been for days).  Let's see if the Canadian, UK, and Euro come somewhere in between.  Currently I'm getting 6" on the NAM and 6" on the GFS just on the east edge of the NAM and west edge of the GFS.  So just meet in the middle guys and call it a day. 

I second this.  

[OKwx2k4]

Glad to see you in here buddy! Hope you get a win...

Thank you man. It's a much needed one for me. A good 2-4 inch snow would be awesome.

[Stacsh]

GFS give me 10 inches.  Euro 0.  P types will be huge for Lower MI.  

[Hawkeye]

What we have is another typical "big" Iowa storm.  Unfortunately, the typical "big" Iowa storm is 4-6"/5-8".  Our storms are either long-duration light to moderate snow, or they are in and out in six hours.  This one will be in and out quickly, so it had better snow hard.

[OKwx2k4]

This is all snow, right? I know Tropical Tidbits includes sleet in their snow maps, which honestly makes for some ludicrous maps. Like this one from this same GFS:

Not sure if it is or isn't.

I think kuchera ratio was created as a temperature based offset to this problem. It's meant to be a more accurate representation of actual snowfall, if my understanding is correct.

[gimmesnow]

Whenever I get excited I jynx it, but I am right in the center. wunderground calling for 10 and accuweather calling for 7 to 12. If I wake up to 10 inches of fresh snow that fell on a night with a low of 13f I'm going to be in midwest powder heaven.

[james1976]

What we have is another typical "big" Iowa storm. Unfortunately, the typical "big" Iowa storm is 4-6" with isolated higher. Our storms are either long-duration light to moderate snow, or they are in and out in six hours. This one will be in and out quickly, so it had better snow hard.

GFS needs to slow downnnn

[OKwx2k4]

Whenever I get excited I jynx it, but I am right in the center. wunderground calling for 10 and accuweather calling for 7 to 12. If I wake up to 10 inches of fresh snow that fell on a night with a low of 13f I'm going to be in midwest powder heaven.

Holy moly. I definitely understand the excitement though. That sounds darn near like winter perfection.