1/10 - 1/11 Plains/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm

[BrianJK]

Whenever I get excited I jynx it, but I am right in the center. wunderground calling for 10 and accuweather calling for 7 to 12. If I wake up to 10 inches of fresh snow that fell on a night with a low of 13f I'm going to be in midwest powder heaven.

You’re looking good. Down here we may need a canoe.

[Snowshoe]

Quietly lurking and liking the NW trends. I've got my snow magnet out!

Looking forward to the Euro model runs today. NAM has been very consistent from the get go being on the NW of other models.

 

http://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/1247/1029/products/MSKS-2673_large_c37f0a3d-4781-447d-bf83-67b443cffe0e_grande.jpg

[Tom]

12z GGEM looks SE compared to the previous 00z run....the SLP isn't wound up like the NAM or GFS which I assume is why its not showing that much Snow but a lot of FZR.

[bud2380]

Canadian is weaker and further SE.  

[westMJim]

While this very well will change but at this time the Euro has a unbelievable 3.36” of precipitation and the GFS has 1.90”. I do not believe that will happen but if it does there is a list of the top 5 wettest storms in January at Grand Rapids in recorded history. 2.15” in 1993 that fell with a temperature in the 50’s so no ice or snow. 1.85” in 1960 temperatures in the low 40” no ice or snow. 1.84” in 1907 temperatures in the mid 50’s no ice or snow. 1.70” in 1895 temperatures in the low 30’s over 9” of snow and there was 14” on the ground 3 days later. 1.69” in 1975 with temperatures in the upper 50’s so no ice or snow. So bottom line is IF we get that much precipitation and most fall at or near 32 this could end up being a record ice storm for Grand Rapids. My guess is that it will not be that bad but hey we will see.

[james1976]

Not good when I have to ride the outlier NAM

[bud2380]

Canadian at 6pm Saturday, which is when other models have the snow really ramping up, this is a pretty small defo band and pretty weak.  Similar in placement to the GFS though.

 

[bud2380]

Ukie looks pretty similar to the GFS.  I think it's safe to call the NAM an extreme westerly outlier.

 

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

[Tom]

Well then, the NWS has this for their forecast...

 

 

[bud2380]

Ukie for the 2nd wave.

 

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/pan_P2_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

[Hawkeye]

Yikes, Canadian with a big setback for cold sector precip.

[East Dubzz]

Not going to get too worked up about the Canadian.

[bud2380]

Wow, this is one bad map.

 

 

[FV-Mike]

Well then, the NWS has this for their forecast...

This seems very reasonable 

[Hawkeye]

The UK already had little falling in Iowa and now it's even farther east and weak.  This system may be crapping out on us.

 

It's unreal how difficult it is to get a big snowstorm in Iowa.  If the low tracks over Iowa, the Dakotas get 12-18".  If it passes southeast of Iowa, it's fast-moving, weak crap.

[bud2380]

well one  hour wait for the only model that matters.  LOL.  I didn't care for the Euro's weakening in eastern Iowa on the 00z run, so I hope it's a little stronger this run.  

[james1976]

Amazing how models are even more far apart today than yesterday considering they should be sampled now.

[Hawkeye]

Amazing how models are even more far apart today than yesterday considering they should be sampled now.

 

Yep.  Just when you think models are finally coming into agreement for a big snowfall, they pull the rug out.  It's frustrating.  I'd rather they show a miss the entire time.

[Tom]

12z GEFS...track hasn't budged much...

 

[East Dubzz]

Yep.  Just when you think models are finally coming into agreement for a big snowfall, they pull the rug out.  It's frustrating.  I'd rather they show a miss the entire time.

 

Jeez man, you'd think the models didn't show anything anymore. Let's just let this play out.

[hlcater]

Gotta feeling CR gets 1-2” with a near miss SE where 5-7” falls. I don’t think anyone in Iowa sees 12” from this though.

[BMT]

anyone know if 12z runs are fully sampled?

[Tom]

Huh???  Not sure I buy this but I'll take it...12" snow depth???

 

[james1976]

anyone know if 12z runs are fully sampled?

To my understanding they are

[Tom]

anyone know if 12z runs are fully sampled?

Yes, they should be...the energy is sliding down the coastline of Cali as we speak...

[bud2380]

DVN has issued Winter Storm Watches for much of its area. 

[bud2380]

Very vague at this point.

 

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=IAZ064&warncounty=IAC103&firewxzone=IAZ064&local_place1=3%20Miles%20NNE%20North%20Liberty%20IA&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch&lat=41.7839&lon=-91.593#.XhdieshKiUk

[East Dubzz]

Very vague at this point.

 

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=IAZ064&warncounty=IAC103&firewxzone=IAZ064&local_place1=3%20Miles%20NNE%20North%20Liberty%20IA&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch&lat=41.7839&lon=-91.593#.XhdieshKiUk

 

I noticed that haha. Extremely vague. 

[BMT]

lol...no amounts or anything.  

[Tom]

The 12z Ukie is weaker in the south but then strengthens as it tracks into C IN pulling down colder air and still laying down a healthy snow storm from KC up into N IL/NW IN and SW MI??? 

[Money]

Be interesting to see if euro holds or not

[jaster220]

                    I'm under my first WSWatch in years!!!! 

[Tom]

Where does one see good maps of the Ukie?

I don't have snow maps on Ryan Maue's site but it does show 2m temps which I'm going off of.  I believe he has free snow maps off of his other free site but I haven't used them before.  I think Bud & Hawkeye have posted them before.

[Mi_Matthew]

I'm under my first WSWatch in years!!!!

Congrats! Curious how DTX plays this. GFS would bring over an inch of ice my way.

[bud2380]

Where does one see good maps of the Ukie?

 

This is the best site i know of.  It's the only free one that goes out to all 144 hours.

 

https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/usa/precipitation-6h-in/20200112-0000z.html

 

Otherwise you can use this one to get precip out to 72 hours and other maps out to 144.

 

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?mod=ukmet&map=na&run=12&lang=en&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest

[Madtown]

just reading through....weaker and south east trend?

[jaster220]

In all honesty, I think S MI is going to miss out on this one bud but maybe some wrap around snows.  Still a few days to go to see some subtle shifts but will it matter for your area?  Hopefully you don't get the FZR scenario.

 

Appreciate you taking a minute to give a break-down. Trends continue to be "unfriendly" to say the least. I've already conceded that I'll be looking at slush on my flood puddles at best. Best of luck over there where you still have a shot at something meaningful 

[East Dubzz]

just reading through....weaker and south east trend?

Not really. Models are a bit all over the place in the 12z runs. 

[jaster220]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1015 AM EST Thu Jan 9 2020

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-092315-
/O.NEW.KGRR.WS.A.0001.200111T0300Z-200112T1500Z/
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-
Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-
Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
Including the cities of Ludington, Baldwin, Reed City, Clare,
Hart, Fremont, Big Rapids, Mount Pleasant, Muskegon, Greenville,
Alma, Grand Haven, Jenison, Grand Rapids, Ionia, St. Johns,
Holland, Hastings, Charlotte, Lansing, South Haven, Kalamazoo,
Battle Creek, and Jackson
1015 AM EST Thu Jan 9 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Rain transitioning to
an icy mix is possible in southern portions of Michigan. An icy
mix transitioning to snow is possible in central portions of
Michigan. Snow, sleet, and ice accumulations may be significant.
Winds could gust as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west
central Michigan.

* WHEN...From Friday evening through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
ice. Travel could be nearly impossible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Two day storm total precipitation amounts,
which includes the combination of rain and snow or ice water
content, could approach winter season historical records in
Southern Michigan. Prepare for the possibility of extended power
outages and canceled travel plans.

 

 

  NOT a good scenario to get a Watch for, hence my 

[bud2380]

just reading through....weaker and south east trend?

Except for the NAM, LOL which was majorly amped and NW.  GFS actually was almost identical to last night.  The Canadian and Ukie are the ones that seem to be weaker and SE.  We'll see what the King says, it just started.