1/10 - 1/11 Plains/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm

[Iowawx]

DVN just issued a Winter Storm Watch for areas north of interstate 80 and south of highway 20 in Iowa. They don't mention snowfall amounts. 

[Hawkeye]

First impression from the Euro..... the northern wave is slower.

 

Update:  Nevermind, I think I mixed up the runs.

[bud2380]

KCRG in eastern Iowa just posted a map going with 3-6" is all for areas east of Waterloo basically.  

[Money]

First impression from the Euro..... the northern wave is slower.

Looks faster to me at hr 18?

[shakjen]

DVN just issued a Winter Storm Watch for areas north of interstate 80 and south of highway 20 in Iowa. They don't mention snowfall amounts. 

I am sure LOT will follow this afternoon at least for the western counties.

[Hawkeye]

Looks faster to me at hr 18?

 

You are correct, I mixed up the runs.

 

Through 24 hours, I don't see anything that suggests southeast.  Who knows, though.  Little details matter.

[GDR]

Euro going to be weaker and south east

[bud2380]

thru 30 hours surface maps are very similar.  

[Money]

Looks nearly identical

[bud2380]

Euro very robust still with the lead wave in Iowa.  SHowing almost 1/2" QPF for Iowa City and CR.  

[Hawkeye]

Like other models this morning, the system is a bit faster to eject.

[Money]

Looks stronger than 12z at 45

[Stacsh]

Like other models this morning, the system is a bit faster.

 

Seems  little stronger as well

[bud2380]

SLP is 2 MB stronger at 54 hours and heavier precip breaking out in E Iowa compared to 00z

[East Dubzz]

Euro going to be weaker and south east

 

[jaster220]

Unless the SE trends are forthcoming, my inclusion in the "Watch" will be yet another poor headline choice by my office. Seems I'm included in the Watch mainly for the "chance of transition to a mix" and gusty winds on the backside of the departing Low. I know I ride them many times for NOT including borderline counties (where I live) in their Watches, but this seems to be the ONE time I shoulda been left out! 

 

Per their own AFD:

 

Outside of river flooding, saturated soils will enable the
majority of rain to become runoff and lead to flooding of low-
lying areas, farm fields, and areas with poor drainage. Again,
this risk is highest along I-94 where a transition to a wintry mix
is currently expected to take longest (if at all).

[bud2380]

on 10:1 maps Euro with 5" for CR by noon.  And the heaviest is yet to come.  Good signs.  

[hlcater]

Euro going to be weaker and south east

Stop posting please, or at least check your posts at a minimum. Come on lol.

[bud2380]

in the end not much different from 00z.  Slightly stronger in Iowa and slightly more robust with overall snow fields.  So I will take that for sure.

 

[bud2380]

Cant wait to see Kuchera as temps in the low 20s while this is hitting could lead to ratios more like 15:1.  Total QPF for Iowa City is 1.3".  Oh and there was more to come so i  posted too soon.  Euro is quite a bit stronger this run for E Iowa.

 

[james1976]

Safe to say the NAM is completely lost. Another incher for me

[Hawkeye]

The thing is, the majority of the Cedar Rapids snowfall on the Euro map comes from the first wave.  No other model has anything that robust from wave #1.  Some models have rain/mix with little snow from that.

[Stacsh]

anyone have  12Z Euro ice maps?  Seems like that is what I should be most worried about here.

[East Dubzz]

Weird seeing the Euro being the one throwing out some of the biggest totals.

[Hawkeye]

So now it's onward to the 00z runs.  Maybe a bit more clarity by then.  

[bud2380]

This is what the Euro shows for Saturday in E Iowa.  About 5" on 10:1 with temps in the 20s, should translate into 6-8".  If we get 2-4" Friday night and a storm total of 8-12", you won't hear complaints from me. 

[james1976]

[bud2380]

I meant to post this map above with my last post. 

 

[BMT]

hello Euro

[Hawkeye]

This is what the Euro shows for Saturday in E Iowa.  About 5" on 10:1 with temps in the 20s, should translate into 6-8".  If we get 2-4" Friday night and a storm total of 8-12", you won't hear complaints from me. 

 

I think 8" would be the max even if the track was perfect for us.  It would be nice to get 4", which would at least put it into "solid storm" category.

[Tom]

12z Euro...

[james1976]

20" for Madison. Not bad

[Hawkeye]

I've said this before, but I generally prefer 10:1 maps to Kuchera.  If Kuchera maps were typically correct, we'd get 70 inches of snow each winter.  This morning, my Mom told me that one of her friends says we are supposed to get a foot of snow.  Why does her friend think that?  Because Terry Swails, a local snow geek met, posts the Kuchera maps on his website.  One of the local radio stations follows Terry's site.  The radio station then tells its audience about the super high Kuchera totals and now its listeners all think we're going to get a foot when that is highly unlikely.  Even if we end up with a nice 6", those radio listeners will think Swails and the station are over-hyping.

[BMT]

HRRR appears to have a potent first wave.  

[hlcater]

I've said this before, but I generally prefer 10:1 maps to Kuchera. If Kuchera maps were typically correct, we'd get 70 inches of snow each winter. This morning, my Mom told me that one of her friends says we are supposed to get a foot of snow. Why does she think that? Because Terry Swails, a local snow geek met, posts the Kuchera maps on his website. One of the local radio stations follows Terry's site. The radio station then tells its audience about the super high Kuchera totals and now its listeners all think we're going to get a foot when that is highly unlikely. Even if we end up with a nice 6", those radio listeners will think Swails is over-hyping.

Well said. Especially when considering the rather significant inversion aloft(hence all the ice lol). Despite surface temps being in the 20s, I have to think that inversion tempers ratios quite a bit. I maintain my guess of 5-8” in the heaviest band for E IA

[james1976]

I've said this before, but I generally prefer 10:1 maps to Kuchera. If Kuchera maps were typically correct, we'd get 70 inches of snow each winter. This morning, my Mom told me that one of her friends says we are supposed to get a foot of snow. Why does her friend think that? Because Terry Swails, a local snow geek met, posts the Kuchera maps on his website. One of the local radio stations follows Terry's site. The radio station then tells its audience about the super high Kuchera totals and now its listeners all think we're going to get a foot when that is highly unlikely. Even if we end up with a nice 6", those radio listeners will think Swails and the station are over-hyping.

Yup fun to look at but rarely verify

[Iowawx]

How ironic is it that our first major snowstorm of the season looks to occur during the second weekend of January, just like it did back in January 2019. After January 12, 2019, the snowfall quickly added up and we finished with 50" by April, with no snow falling in November or December of 2018. I hope this is a sign that there are more snowstorms on the horrizon that will allow us to bulid up a big snowfall total for this winter. 

[BMT]

How ironic is it that our first major snowstorm of the season looks to occur during the second weekend of January, just like it did back in January 2019. After January 12, 2019, the snowfall quickly added up and we finished with 50" by April, with no snow falling in November or December of 2018. I hope this is a sign that there are more snowstorms on the horrizon that will allow us to bulid up a big snowfall total for this winter. 

Couldn't help but think of this myself.  Eerily similar.  Looks like we have a couple more shots at refresher snows next week as well.  Sign me up for a repeat.  

[Hawkeye]

I don't have a strong opinion on this.  But isn't the problem with the 10:1 maps that they include sleet/ice, and therefore aren't accurate if those forms of precip are in play?

 

Both ratio maps can be right or wrong.  Of course, sometimes 10:1 won't get the job done.  I am certainly not against the posting of Kuchera maps.  I get as curious as the next guy what the Kuchera map is suggesting for totals.  However, when trying to guess how much snow I will receive, I just like to look at the 10:1 maps and then adjust the ratio myself based on various factors.

 

Back to the "We're supposed to get a foot" talk from my Mom's friend... I have literally never measured a foot of snow from any storm in my lifetime, so I can't imagine we'd get that much from this storm.

[Stormhunter87]

Local Mets are starting to support the first wave being juicier here.