1/10 - 1/11 Plains/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm

[Tom]

00z EPS snow mean...

 

 

[Tom]

06z GEFS starting to lean towards the EPS...

 

[Tom]

00z Euro Control is SE and hits MO/IL/N IN/S MI pretty good with snow from the secondary wave as it tracks thru S IN into OH...

 

 

[Clinton]

06z GFS...

 

 

 

06z NAM...still snowing as the defo band tracks through MO/IL...

 

 

Wow do we have model agreement already!  That's not allowed.

[Tom]

Wow do we have model agreement already!  That's not allowed.

Ya, I think the track is getting iron down but all the models vary in terms of how to handle the upper level energy, thermals, precip type.  For those of us up north, where the mix precip scenario sets up, will be a challenge trying to pin that down till 12-24 hours before the event.  I like the trends in the strength of the secondary wave developing into a healthy storm.  The GEFS are showing more and more members advertising something more in line to the Euro/Ukie.

[Tom]

Trends in the GEFS ensemble members of the SLP track now starting to show it tracking thru S IN...the HP to the north seems to be growing a little stronger.

[Grizzcoat]

It's getting old with no big strikes (other than rain) here in C,IA. Snowfall total is 8.4" for the season. Most of it occurred in OCT. Do not by a pattern change unless it's a rain and than cold- why should I?

 

It's either rain or cold here and no snow-

DMX's take

Friday through Saturday...strong surface high pressure builds into
the Dakotas and Minnesota during this time and looks to advect
plenty of dry air into the state. The boundary to the south in
Missouri, Kansas and Oklahoma continues to be the focus for any
precipitation chances Friday afternoon into Saturday and likely
hoarding any significant moisture. Confident to lower pops and
QPF (especially west and north) during the aforementioned time
period due the dry air entrainment and the bulk of the forcing
remaining across the southern and eastern portions of the forecast
area. Precip type appears to be mainly rain/snow across central
to southern Iowa Friday afternoon and evening. There is a brief
stint when ice introduction is lost across the far south and thus
some FZRA/wintry mix is possible Friday night. Low confidence in
the impact due to the continued trend of lesser chances of any
precipitation. Light snow accumulations Friday evening over
central to eastern portions of the forecast area, but trended
lower with QPF and thus snow amounts due to the high pressure
shunting the precipitation south of the state.

 

I don't see a turnaround like last year which was a record turnaround for snowfall. Winters here just don't happen like the 00's - and being skeptic of climate change- Iam starting to believe and drink the kool aid. The last time a serious L tracked in MO and gave appreciable snows for C.IA was several years ago. Climate is a changing- having a hard time believing anything else.

[Clinton]

NWS KC mentioning headlines 

 

By Friday morning the the surface front will reside in the vicinity
of the southern CWA however, initial cold air advection behind the
front will remain weak keeping temperatures above freezing during
the morning hours. Moisture will continue to stream into the area on
the nose of a persistent LLJ which will overrun the surface front
and continue rain changes across the area. However, by Friday
afternoon a surface low will develop along the front across
northeastern Oklahoma and tighten the pressure gradient and enhance
CAA into the area. This will drop temperatures below freezing from
northwest to southeast across the forecast area Friday afternoon
through Friday night. As these temperatures drop below freezing, the
aforementioned upper level trough over the western CONUS will move
into the central Plains. Moisture will continue to stream into the
area on the continued LLJ however, it will with surface temperature
now below freezing we will looking at frozen precipitation. Model
soundings show a very pronounced warm nose of 4-5C between 2-8kft.
This would support freezing rain. As we go through Friday afternoon
into Friday night as the upper level trough approaches it will push
a 850mb front through the and that warm nose will eventually cool
with the entire column dropping below freezing. This would allow
transition to snow with perhaps some occasional sleet mixed in. this
transition will occur from northwest where less freezing rain and
more snow will occur to southeast where more freezing rain is
expected. Snow is then expected to continue into Saturday as the
upper level trough moves through. All told ice accumulations of a
tenth to a quarter of an inch cannot be ruled out and snow
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches may be possible. These definitely
warrant a watch and based on model updates in the next 24 hours one
may need to be issued.

[Stormhunter87]

Welp Omaha is out of this one.

[Bryan1117]

Welp Omaha is out of this one.

I am over this Winter already. Ready for Spring!

[dubuque473]

Driving in/out of Chicago Friday, looks like I will be doing it early that day.

[Clinton]

6z EC a little softer

[james1976]

Yup like Grizz said. We dont get cutters over here anymore. Clippers or nothing

[Clinton]

6z EPS mean

[BrianJK]

Ya, I think the track is getting iron down but all the models vary in terms of how to handle the upper level energy, thermals, precip type. For those of us up north, where the mix precip scenario sets up, will be a challenge trying to pin that down till 12-24 hours before the event. I like the trends in the strength of the secondary wave developing into a healthy storm. The GEFS are showing more and more members advertising something more in line to the Euro/Ukie.

This reminds me of a set up many years ago where we got lots of rain and Geos just to the north got around a foot of snow. Something tells me this is play out in similar fashion with a very sharp cutoff in the area.

[Hawkeye]

Some of the ensemble stuff is still solid for my area, but the operational models are trending in the wrong direction.

[BMT]

Some of the ensemble stuff is still solid for my area, but the operational models are trending in the wrong direction.

What I was thinking.  Need to give it a few more runs before i start throwing in the towel.  Too many good members left.  

[Stacsh]

I'm all on board the ICON lol

[Hawkeye]

As expected, the NAM continues to gradually slow the southern wave and trend toward the other models.

[GDR]

Yes yes yes!!!

[Clinton]

NAM at hr 84

[Niko]

 

Chicago and Detroit may face the threat for a wintry mixture of precipitation beginning Friday night.

The storm is expected to track eastward through the Ohio Valley on Saturday, and cold air filtering into the storm will gradually shift precipitation modes from ice to snow across the Midwest.

Some areas that may end up encased in ice may then see accumulating snow afterward, adding additional stress to tree limbs and power lines.

The storm will pivot and precipitation will transition to snow, burying portions of the Lower Peninsula of Michigan under totals in excess of 6 inches Saturday into Saturday night.

[Clinton]

 

Chicago and Detroit may face the threat for a wintry mixture of precipitation beginning Friday night.

The storm is expected to track eastward through the Ohio Valley on Saturday, and cold air filtering into the storm will gradually shift precipitation modes from ice to snow across the Midwest.

Some areas that may end up encased in ice may then see accumulating snow afterward, adding additional stress to tree limbs and power lines.

The storm will pivot and precipitation will transition to snow, burying portions of the Lower Peninsula of Michigan under totals in excess of 6 inches Saturday into Saturday night.

The Euro was showing really nasty amounts of ice for S. Mich.

[easterniowa1]

We must have used up that snow magnet in Waterloo last year.

[Hawkeye]

NAM has gone to the two-wave scenario like the other models.

 

This is going to be close for my area.  We could get several inches of snow, but this could also, just as easily, sag a bit more southeast and drop very little here.

[Niko]

The Euro was showing really nasty amounts of ice for S. Mich.

Yep, I saw that. I hate ice. UGH! Hopefully, S. trends continue today. The strong H.P to our north could suppress this storm south a bit.

[Clinton]

12Z ICON

[MIKEKC]

12z NAM hammers KC. 6-12 inches

 

Clinton, you posted the 06z, the 12z was a huge upgrade for KC.

 

Stupid ICON did not follow, has snow off to the east of the city.

[Hawkeye]

We've lost the ICON now.  I have a feeling this is going to be a dud for Iowa.

[Iowawx]

Of course, this is going to be a dud for Cedar Rapids. At this point, we won't see any measurable snow until February. Chicago will get more snow than us.  

[bud2380]

The 3K NAM basically doesn't show the storm coming together at all.  ONly goes out to hour 60 which is when things should be ramping up, but it's showing only some rain in Missouri, IL and IN.  

[Clinton]

12z NAM hammers KC. 6-12 inches

 

Clinton, you posted the 06z, the 12z was a huge upgrade for KC.

 

Stupid ICON did not follow, has snow off to the east of the city.

 

Loving the 12z NAM, but trying not to get too excited about it yet. Gary always doubts the NAM, and I will admit that it seems to have had its problems this year.  Looking at the ensemble maps, KC is in, or very near, accumulating snows on most of the maps.  So it seems like we have a pretty good chance of seeing enough to cover the ground, which in KC is about all you can ask for with regard to any particular snow event.  

The trends are good for all of us.  The Euro has been advertising about .30 of ice accum down my way, and it has been very steady on snow amounts and track the last several runs.

[Hawkeye]

The GFS continues to be pretty stable, showing a modest first wave dropping a mix and snow in southeast Iowa, followed by a main wave laying down a decent snow to the southeast of Iowa.

[bud2380]

GFS continues to be weak and stretched out.  Very progressive.  Huge rain totals, but not much snow. 

 

 

[Iowawx]

I'm writting this one off. It's just not going to happen for Cedar Rapids. I would love it if we could be on the warm side of the storm with those really impressive rainfall totals, but oh well. 

[jaster220]

 

 

I still expect to see some adjustments but for Chicago and nearby, this will be a nail biter. 

 

While you're eating nails, Euro wants to feed me flurries  . Best of luck to ya over there my friend. I think trends will be your friend by game time. Getting me back in the thick of SN instead of RN/Ice dominating will take a bit more lifting by the models. Let's see. I may not have to drive too far to see a legit snowstorm tho, that'd be a nice upside. Dec 28, 2015 Sleet-n-snowstorm was like that. Full-on sleeter for the 94 corridor and just 2 counties north they had a nice 4-6" snow event. 

[bud2380]

Until the Euro caves to the GFS I'm not believing the GFS.  outside of it's one coup this year, it has mostly been awful.  

[jaster220]

I see you Iowa Peeps!  You got the same model-flopping blues I had a case of yesterday. No easing that pain either, but at least you guys got last winter fwiw. 

[Stacsh]

Looks like I'm in the sweet spot for Freezing rain on all the models.  Hopefully the storm overcomes the warmer air aloft.  

[gimmesnow]

Woah, it's always crazy to see high snow totals on a map that doesn't say "GFS"