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1/10 - 1/11 Plains/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm


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00z UK also nw and more robust with both waves.... very similar to the GFS.  It's even a bit nw with wave #2 as it gets solid snow into much of se IA.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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About 2 inches of snow total here as the snowfall has pretty much ended in my backyard.   This likely qualifies as the biggest snowfall event I have seen yet this Winter- this “amazing” snow event fi

OMADOME will not be penetrated...    

ended up with an even 4.0" just W of DSM about 20 minutes. Didn't think it was going to be much over 3" but the last  band was high in ratios--- since 6pm I had 1.7" ; melted down was .10. So 17:1 and

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Euro took a step back this run, especially with wave 1.  Iowa gets little if any precip.  The energy sweeping across southern Canada needs to weaken and/or get out of the way sooner for us Iowans.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z Ukie develops the secondary wave into a healthy and formidable winter storm with a lot of colder air to work with NW of the track. It has been stead fast in developing a widespread snowstorm from KS/MO/IA/IL/N IN/MI. The defo band which develops near KC tracks right thru N MO/SE IA/N IL/NW IN/S MI with a lot of precip in the cold sector. In fact, it looks very similar to the Euro in terms of track but the Euro doesn't develop as much snow back in the Plains/S MW.

 

00z Euro showing some love for Chitown into NW IN/MI...

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Clinton...rain is interesting in KC?

 

Just kidding, I know what you mean. Track looks different and it looks like a nice storm.

 

Let’s get our winter back!

I hope so, the models look active the next few weeks.  We really need to land 1 or 2 storms here.

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The Euro likes you!  The 6z ensembles looked a lot better for my area than the op.

I will be more confident w this storm once the main wave enters the west coast. Give it a couple of days.

 

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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All over the place as usual.  It will be Thursday before anything becomes clear.

 

I will be more confident w this storm once the main wave enters the west coast. Give it a couple of days.

 

 

 

Jaster are you ready to buy in yet?

 

Ha!  I want to buddy, I really do. The other two posts I quoted above reveal the gut feeling tho. This shortwave is pegged to come onshore and very quickly traverse the SW Rockies and "boom!" generate a SLP in rather sudden fashion. As noted, there are "last-minute" shifts you can count on, and with the questionable thermals noted above, I'm in a "prove you can deliver on a promise" mode wrt this system. I'd be much more confident if this was coming into a solidly cold environment and it hadn't been 3+ yrs since we had a S stream system work out favorably. I'm buying into a storm mind you, just a bit gun shy to claim success for mby from this range. I will say, it's the best things have looked in quite a while wrt model trends! Let's leave it at that, lol

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Ha!  I want to buddy, I really do. The other two posts I quoted above reveal the gut feeling tho. This shortwave is pegged to come onshore and very quickly traverse the SW Rockies and "boom!" generate a SLP in rather sudden fashion. As noted, there are "last-minute" shifts you can count on, and with the questionable thermals noted above, I'm in a "prove you can deliver on a promise" mode wrt this system. I'd be much more confident if this was coming into a solidly cold environment and it hadn't been 3+ yrs since we had a S stream system work out favorably. I'm buying into a storm mind you, just a bit gun shy to claim success for mby from this range. I will say, it's the best things have looked in quite a while wrt model trends! Let's leave it at that, lol

I understand and the track is very uncertain, hope we can zero in on it by tomorrow but it will probably be Friday lol.

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Wow, the NAM and ICON are eye-openers.  The latest of both show less influence from any northern energy trying to stretch and positively tilt the main southern energy.  The NAM doesn't even have a first wave.  It just brings the entire thing out in one big piece.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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So, of course, the GFS goes the other way, weaker and southeast again.  *sigh*

 

The difference between the ICON and GFS is obvious at 500 mb.  The ICON is weaker and faster with the southern Canada energy and slower with the southern energy, so the two are able to split and let the southern energy cut north.  The GFS is stronger and slower up in Canada and faster down south, so the two remain too attached and the southern energy gets stretched out and yanked east.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z ICON has a big wound up storm but further north than Euro.

1578916800-fYXpzhfZ7nw.png

 

Good to see the ICON jump on board and I'm happy with the northern solution, but long ways out.  NAM looks great, too bad it's the NAM at 84 hours. 

 

Wow, the NAM and ICON are eye-openers.  The latest of both show less influence from any northern energy trying to stretch and positively tilt the main southern energy.  The NAM doesn't even have a first wave.  It just brings the entire thing out in one big piece.

 

Models all over because they're struggling with whether this will go as one big piece of energy, or more broken into a multi-wave scenario. More model mayhem ensured due to this alone! Extreme windshield wiper alert is in effect me thinks..

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Models all over because they're struggling with whether this will go as one big piece of energy, or more broken into a multi-wave scenario. More model mayhem ensured due to this alone! Extreme windshield wiper alert is in effect me thinks..

:lol:  I am at work but maybe Tom would know for sure but I believe in the last cycle this came out in 1 wave.  The windshield wiper alert killed me!

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I'm guessing the NAM is wrong.  While the ICON has the northern wave getting sufficiently out of the way to allow the southern wave to cut more, the NAM is actually ejecting the southern energy so quickly that it is able to cut before it can be suppressed/stretched.  I think it's likely the NAM will gradually slow the southern energy and begin to suppress/stretch more like the other models.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Canadian back north with the second wave, although not too amped.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z UK is very robust with the second wave, cuts up to the lakes.

 

UK_12z_0107.gif

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z UK is very robust with the second wave, cuts up to the lakes.

 

attachicon.gifUK_12z_0107.gif

 

Geez! Congrats to da Yoopers! (again)  :rolleyes:

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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My office at least buying into this storm more so than any other event this year except maybe Halloween? I know Vet's Day snuck up on 'em with the GFS dragging it's feet into camp on that. 

 

Active pattern setting up for the end of the week and especially
over the weekend as deep upstream trough sends out several waves.
Initially it is warm enough for mostly rain Thursday into Friday,
but as the baroclinic zone settles just south of Michigan over
the weekend it turns cold enough for mixed precip or snow. Main
concern at this time is Saturday night as stronger wave comes
through and strong sfc high to our north feeds in cold low level
air mass via northeast winds. Potential exists for heavy QPF
amounts with several inches of snow and/or a band of heavy
freezing rain/sleet with significant impacts, but difficult at
this time to nail down the specifics.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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12z UK is very robust with the second wave, cuts up to the lakes.

 

attachicon.gifUK_12z_0107.gif

That looks pretty...that defo band means business and its all in the cold sector with temps in the mid 20's or lower.  Well over 1" qpf would spit out some hefty snowfall totals.  Euro up next...please continue to show us some love!

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That looks pretty...that defo band means business and its all in the cold sector with temps in the mid 20's or lower.  Well over 1" qpf would spit out some hefty snowfall totals.  Euro up next...please continue to show us some love!

 

If Euro follows Uncle Ukie, it's over for mby. You might still be in the game tho. 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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:lol:  I am at work but maybe Tom would know for sure but I believe in the last cycle this came out in 1 wave.  The windshield wiper alert killed me!

Just buy using the 30 day harmonic, in December, there was a developed system that tugged down an arctic blast which was transient and looks very similar to what is showing up on the models for this system.

 

sfcplot_sm_20191209.gif

 

sfcplot_sm_20191210.gif

 

 

However, back in November, during the Vet's day storm, it was an elongated wave where the secondary piece became the more wintry side of things over here.  I think this system has a better chance at developing the secondary wave unlike back in November.

 

sfcplot_sm_20191111.gif

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If Euro follows Uncle Ukie, it's over for mby. You might still be in the game tho. 

This is why this hobby can get a bit nutty.  I'm still nervous of this becoming stronger and taking an unfavorable track for my area.

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