Hawkeye 4600 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 00z UK also nw and more robust with both waves.... very similar to the GFS. It's even a bit nw with wave #2 as it gets solid snow into much of se IA. Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4600 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Euro took a step back this run, especially with wave 1. Iowa gets little if any precip. The energy sweeping across southern Canada needs to weaken and/or get out of the way sooner for us Iowans. Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Ukie looks like it would put 6”+ for Iowa city. Hopefully the euro trends that way as well. Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted January 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 00z Ukie develops the secondary wave into a healthy and formidable winter storm with a lot of colder air to work with NW of the track. It has been stead fast in developing a widespread snowstorm from KS/MO/IA/IL/N IN/MI. The defo band which develops near KC tracks right thru N MO/SE IA/N IL/NW IN/S MI with a lot of precip in the cold sector. In fact, it looks very similar to the Euro in terms of track but the Euro doesn't develop as much snow back in the Plains/S MW. 00z Euro showing some love for Chitown into NW IN/MI... 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4430 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 6z Euro looks better with wave 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
james1976 3976 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 6z GFS with basically nothing for Iowa Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4430 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 6z GFS with basically nothing for IowaNot much for me either. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4430 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 6z EC no good for me but some do well. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Stacsh 906 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 All over the place as usual. It will be Thursday before anything becomes clear. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Stacsh 906 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Why do I get the feeling this is going to be a perfect track and the cold air won't make it in... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4430 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 The NAM at hr 84 (Iknow) is interesting. 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 6z EC no good for me but some do well. 2 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
MIKEKC 417 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Clinton...rain is interesting in KC? Just kidding, I know what you mean. Track looks different and it looks like a nice storm. Let’s get our winter back! 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4430 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Clinton...rain is interesting in KC? Just kidding, I know what you mean. Track looks different and it looks like a nice storm. Let’s get our winter back!I hope so, the models look active the next few weeks. We really need to land 1 or 2 storms here. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4430 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 The Euro likes you! The 6z ensembles looked a lot better for my area than the op. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 The Euro likes you! The 6z ensembles looked a lot better for my area than the op.I will be more confident w this storm once the main wave enters the west coast. Give it a couple of days. 2 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4430 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 12z ICON has a big wound up storm but further north than Euro. 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
jaster220 8344 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 All over the place as usual. It will be Thursday before anything becomes clear. I will be more confident w this storm once the main wave enters the west coast. Give it a couple of days. Jaster are you ready to buy in yet? Ha! I want to buddy, I really do. The other two posts I quoted above reveal the gut feeling tho. This shortwave is pegged to come onshore and very quickly traverse the SW Rockies and "boom!" generate a SLP in rather sudden fashion. As noted, there are "last-minute" shifts you can count on, and with the questionable thermals noted above, I'm in a "prove you can deliver on a promise" mode wrt this system. I'd be much more confident if this was coming into a solidly cold environment and it hadn't been 3+ yrs since we had a S stream system work out favorably. I'm buying into a storm mind you, just a bit gun shy to claim success for mby from this range. I will say, it's the best things have looked in quite a while wrt model trends! Let's leave it at that, lol 1 Quote Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1" Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 49.7" Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal) 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Good to see the ICON jump on board and I'm happy with the northern solution, but long ways out. NAM looks great, too bad it's the NAM at 84 hours. 1 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
Stormhunter87 969 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 For Omaha it looks like the moisture is having issues with dry air and track. The track ain't horrible but the dry air really hangs out. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Stormhunter87 969 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Of course we will be fighting the severe weather for moisture as well. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4430 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Ha! I want to buddy, I really do. The other two posts I quoted above reveal the gut feeling tho. This shortwave is pegged to come onshore and very quickly traverse the SW Rockies and "boom!" generate a SLP in rather sudden fashion. As noted, there are "last-minute" shifts you can count on, and with the questionable thermals noted above, I'm in a "prove you can deliver on a promise" mode wrt this system. I'd be much more confident if this was coming into a solidly cold environment and it hadn't been 3+ yrs since we had a S stream system work out favorably. I'm buying into a storm mind you, just a bit gun shy to claim success for mby from this range. I will say, it's the best things have looked in quite a while wrt model trends! Let's leave it at that, lolI understand and the track is very uncertain, hope we can zero in on it by tomorrow but it will probably be Friday lol. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4600 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Wow, the NAM and ICON are eye-openers. The latest of both show less influence from any northern energy trying to stretch and positively tilt the main southern energy. The NAM doesn't even have a first wave. It just brings the entire thing out in one big piece. 2 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
james1976 3976 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 I would think one big piece would slow it down a bit which would be great for me cuz I have Friday eve plans. Anything after midnight is game on though! 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4600 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 So, of course, the GFS goes the other way, weaker and southeast again. *sigh* The difference between the ICON and GFS is obvious at 500 mb. The ICON is weaker and faster with the southern Canada energy and slower with the southern energy, so the two are able to split and let the southern energy cut north. The GFS is stronger and slower up in Canada and faster down south, so the two remain too attached and the southern energy gets stretched out and yanked east. 3 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
jaster220 8344 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 12z ICON has a big wound up storm but further north than Euro. Good to see the ICON jump on board and I'm happy with the northern solution, but long ways out. NAM looks great, too bad it's the NAM at 84 hours. Wow, the NAM and ICON are eye-openers. The latest of both show less influence from any northern energy trying to stretch and positively tilt the main southern energy. The NAM doesn't even have a first wave. It just brings the entire thing out in one big piece. Models all over because they're struggling with whether this will go as one big piece of energy, or more broken into a multi-wave scenario. More model mayhem ensured due to this alone! Extreme windshield wiper alert is in effect me thinks.. 1 Quote Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1" Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 49.7" Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal) 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Until the main waves enters the picture, models will remain confused. 2 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4430 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Models all over because they're struggling with whether this will go as one big piece of energy, or more broken into a multi-wave scenario. More model mayhem ensured due to this alone! Extreme windshield wiper alert is in effect me thinks.. I am at work but maybe Tom would know for sure but I believe in the last cycle this came out in 1 wave. The windshield wiper alert killed me! 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Niko 7225 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 I am at work but maybe Tom would know for sure but I believe in the last cycle this came out in 1 wave. The windshield wiper alert killed me! :lol: Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4430 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 12z GFS 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4600 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 I'm guessing the NAM is wrong. While the ICON has the northern wave getting sufficiently out of the way to allow the southern wave to cut more, the NAM is actually ejecting the southern energy so quickly that it is able to cut before it can be suppressed/stretched. I think it's likely the NAM will gradually slow the southern energy and begin to suppress/stretch more like the other models. 2 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4600 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Canadian back north with the second wave, although not too amped. Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4600 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 12z UK is very robust with the second wave, cuts up to the lakes. 3 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4430 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 12Z CMC Quote Link to post Share on other sites
jaster220 8344 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 12z UK is very robust with the second wave, cuts up to the lakes. UK_12z_0107.gif Geez! Congrats to da Yoopers! (again) Quote Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1" Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 49.7" Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal) 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Man Ukie just clips me with heavy snow. A shift of 30 miles would put it out of my area though. Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
jaster220 8344 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 My office at least buying into this storm more so than any other event this year except maybe Halloween? I know Vet's Day snuck up on 'em with the GFS dragging it's feet into camp on that. Active pattern setting up for the end of the week and especiallyover the weekend as deep upstream trough sends out several waves.Initially it is warm enough for mostly rain Thursday into Friday,but as the baroclinic zone settles just south of Michigan overthe weekend it turns cold enough for mixed precip or snow. Mainconcern at this time is Saturday night as stronger wave comesthrough and strong sfc high to our north feeds in cold low levelair mass via northeast winds. Potential exists for heavy QPFamounts with several inches of snow and/or a band of heavyfreezing rain/sleet with significant impacts, but difficult atthis time to nail down the specifics. 1 Quote Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1" Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 49.7" Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal) 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted January 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 12z UK is very robust with the second wave, cuts up to the lakes. UK_12z_0107.gifThat looks pretty...that defo band means business and its all in the cold sector with temps in the mid 20's or lower. Well over 1" qpf would spit out some hefty snowfall totals. Euro up next...please continue to show us some love! 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
jaster220 8344 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 That looks pretty...that defo band means business and its all in the cold sector with temps in the mid 20's or lower. Well over 1" qpf would spit out some hefty snowfall totals. Euro up next...please continue to show us some love! If Euro follows Uncle Ukie, it's over for mby. You might still be in the game tho. Quote Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1" Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 49.7" Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal) 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted January 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 I am at work but maybe Tom would know for sure but I believe in the last cycle this came out in 1 wave. The windshield wiper alert killed me!Just buy using the 30 day harmonic, in December, there was a developed system that tugged down an arctic blast which was transient and looks very similar to what is showing up on the models for this system. However, back in November, during the Vet's day storm, it was an elongated wave where the secondary piece became the more wintry side of things over here. I think this system has a better chance at developing the secondary wave unlike back in November. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted January 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 If Euro follows Uncle Ukie, it's over for mby. You might still be in the game tho. This is why this hobby can get a bit nutty. I'm still nervous of this becoming stronger and taking an unfavorable track for my area. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Stacsh 906 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Euro going to be too warm and strong for SMI. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4430 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Euro given KC a lot of ice. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 YES PLEASE! 2 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
james1976 3976 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Whoa. Is Euro 2 pieces are converting to one biggie? 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 2 pieces still, but both further north. In fact I80 in eastern Iowa is on the border line of rain/ice/snow. If it keeps shifting north i'll get stuck with rain down here. Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4430 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 12z Euro biggie! 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Stacsh 906 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Euro and GFS are not even close to the same page. Long way to go with this one. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted January 7, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 Yup, there's my worry...the 12z Euro showing a 987mb cutter right over the top of Chicago... 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted January 7, 2020 Report Share Posted January 7, 2020 First piece 2nd piece 3 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
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