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1/10 - 1/11 Plains/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm


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About 2 inches of snow total here as the snowfall has pretty much ended in my backyard.   This likely qualifies as the biggest snowfall event I have seen yet this Winter- this “amazing” snow event fi

OMADOME will not be penetrated...    

ended up with an even 4.0" just W of DSM about 20 minutes. Didn't think it was going to be much over 3" but the last  band was high in ratios--- since 6pm I had 1.7" ; melted down was .10. So 17:1 and

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I still don't like the way the NAM is handling the southern energy.  It's faster, stronger, and north of the other models.  While the best scenario(for Iowa) from the other models is if the northern energy can get out of the way so the southern energy can cut and amp up more, the NAM is trying to beat the northern energy before it can stretch the main system and pull it more eastward.  I think it will trend toward the other models.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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:( I have to ride the GFS 4 days out 

 

And to think last evening I posted how the ICON remained totally south of here with no cold sector precip. What. A. Joke. 

 

I honestly think you have a shot if the original 2 pc scenario comes back, or there's a little better timing of that N wave so the S thing can't cut as hard as it shows currently. I'd be at least 50/50 optimistic if I was up your way. 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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LOL. For the worse? Ok. Sorry amigo, but it's all over but the ice. Since when do ALL the models trend NW only to come back to their prior position 2 or 3 days later? Answer-never happens. 

We will see amigo. There is still plenty of time to see this track change. Lets hope for the best. I am very curious to see what the models will show once the energy enters the west coast.   

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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We will see amigo. There is still plenty of time to see this track change. Lets hope for the best. I am very curious to see what the models will show once the energy enters the west coast.   

 

Back about 10-15 yrs ago, there were often some significant shifts when shortwaves came fully into the raob network. That's why in big storms like GHD-1 they would fly recon flights out into the Pacific to gather data to better forecast impacts for the CONUS. I think they've worked really hard to eliminate that "sudden shift" because I've not seen it happen now for quite some time. If anything, landfall has just solidified the trends that started at the d4 or d3 range. Without the usual phase timing issues, this seems even less likely to jump around when sampled. As said, our best hope (and it's a weak one imho) is the 2-pc's of energy scenario, and the 2nd one stays further south as models were showing last night's 0z runs. As said, having not seen the traditional back-tracking (guidance used to be known for), I think it's a long, long shot for us to get back into anything decent from this one. 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Looks like the Icon went south earlier. Perhaps, the change is starting to happen?!

 

0z ICON running. At h93 it's actually east of it's 18z run. Perfect Little Egypt SLP just a bunch of rain thanks to this warm pattern. What a waste

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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0z NAM..perfect NMI storm

 

20200108 0z nam12k h84 Surf.png

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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00z ICON

1578970800-876EwJCSIHA.png

 

WAIT!  Where's my "vote down" button when I need it??  :P

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Something is really quirky with the ICON...ground temps are in the 20's with a 1038mb HP seeding cold air into the system to the north.  I highly doubt its that warm in the upper levels of the atmosphere, esp with a 996mb storm.  If the Euro would show this track I bet there would be a lot more snow.

 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png

 

 

icon_T2m_us_34.png

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Back about 10-15 yrs ago, there were often some significant shifts when shortwaves came fully into the raob network. That's why in big storms like GHD-1 they would fly recon flights out into the Pacific to gather data to better forecast impacts for the CONUS. I think they've worked really hard to eliminate that "sudden shift" because I've not seen it happen now for quite some time. If anything, landfall has just solidified the trends that started at the d4 or d3 range. Without the usual phase timing issues, this seems even less likely to jump around when sampled. As said, our best hope (and it's a weak one imho) is the 2-pc's of energy scenario, and the 2nd one stays further south as models were showing last night's 0z runs. As said, having not seen the traditional back-tracking (guidance used to be known for), I think it's a long, long shot for us to get back into anything decent from this one. 

 

0z NAM..perfect NMI storm

 

attachicon.gif20200108 0z nam12k h84 Surf.png

We will see. Time will tell. If it doesn't happen, then, we go to the next one. It is certainly not the end of the world.... :lol:

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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GFS a near shutout for Iowa.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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yep. 0z GFS continues to be the "share the white stuff east" model of choice. Weaker no doubt tho..

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Something is really quirky with the ICON...ground temps are in the 20's with a 1038mb HP seeding cold air into the system to the north.  I highly doubt its that warm in the upper levels of the atmosphere, esp with a 996mb storm.  If the Euro would show this track I bet there would be a lot more snow.

 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png

 

 

icon_T2m_us_34.png

 

I've never cared for that model tbh. 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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If the Euro would show this track I bet there would be a lot more snow.

 

Thinking what the ICON is showing as plain rain is likely some ZR or IP or whatever across SMI? Seems like it has zilch vs other models with lots of mix and ice

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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00z GFS 

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

Still got one I can "like"  :lol: (KCH actually gets me to a solid 4" - baby steps, right?)

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Difference between GFS and Euro.  The slower Euro is able to let the northern wave pass by and then cut northeast.

 

GFS-Euro.gif

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Not sure what was worse tonight. The GFS run or Iowa’s 3 point shooting against Nebraska.

 

That 4 of 33 display was as bad as you'll ever see.  That's how you lose to a bad Nebraska team.  Losing JBo was bad enough, but now with CJ out Iowa's shooting ability goes way down.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Almost all of Iowa’s 33 three point attempts were uncontested. And we’re a pretty good shooting team. #1 in the nation in Kenpom offensive efficiency. I’ve never seen a shooting display like this. Hopefully never see it again.

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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Almost all of Iowa’s 33 three point attempts were uncontested. And we’re a pretty good shooting team. #1 in the nation in Kenpom offensive efficiency. I’ve never seen a shooting display like this. Hopefully never see it again.

Probably should stop shooting so many when you’re not making them too.

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Probably should stop shooting so many when you’re not making them too.

They put all 5 guys in the paint. Tripled teamed Garza all night. Could barely get in the paint. Iowa just picked a bad night to go ice cold

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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00z UK.... more amped than GFS, but farther southeast than the 12z run.  The heavy snow then moves up to Traverse City.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2020010800_102_5660_228.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Euro at 60 hours has a slower northern wave and faster southern wave.... not good for Iowa.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z Euro... the Iowa snow is the first wave.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z Euro/Ukie are nearly identical in terms of placement of the heaviest Snow and are handling the ULL down in the deep south the best IMO.  The Ukie has been very consistent advertising a winter storm to develop out in the Plains and then cut up near S IL/IN.  Last night's Euro run took a step back to what it was showing 24 hours ago.  I still expect to see some adjustments but for Chicago and nearby, this will be a nail biter.  Looks like a mixed bag of precip before the cold front pushes through.  I'm hoping the cold dense air can press even faster as we get closer to the event.

 

Besides the precip, the models are advertising wind gusts topping 50-55 mph near the lake!  Blizzard-like conditions near the lakeshore???

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