Winterdog Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Finally the sun popped out. 28F Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Don’t give up hope, so far Jay isn’t off the wagon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Going to savor these last snowflakes coming down now since I am getting missed tonight. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 When cold air is well-entrenched in the gorge and subsequently the valley the models almost always are too quick and too aggressive with scouring it out. The GFS, at least right now, is and has pretty vastly overestimated this cold air mass. According to the 18z, PDX should be around freezing right now, just for reference. As for tomorrow, the gorge isn’t a huge factor. There just isn’t enough time or enough of a tap to get that machine cranking. You mean the last 18z? I show the current one with us at 39 at 3pm which is pretty close to kpdx at 38. Though I agree temps look a little wonky elsewhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 NWS and Cliff Mass still going with Seattle northward for snow tonight. 1 Quote (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Going to savor these last snowflakes coming down now since I am getting missed tonight. You're gonna end up one of the biggest winners yet again. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Have I mentioned just how much I love where I live now...it’s awesome! I’m up in those trees. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 You are completely missing their very obvious point. They are talking about money.And I am not talking about money. Like Kayla saying snow lovers should move to Bozeman. Which also happens to be pretty expensive. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Winter storm warning hoisted for 14 hours Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Winter storm warning hoisted for 14 hoursURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Seattle WA333 PM PST Tue Jan 14 2020 WAZ001-503-506-507-510-511-555-556-558-559-151200-/O.UPG.KSEW.WS.A.0003.200115T0200Z-200115T1500Z//O.NEW.KSEW.WS.W.0003.200115T0200Z-200115T1500Z/San Juan County-Western Whatcom County-Western Skagit County-Everett and Vicinity-Admiralty Inlet Area-Hood Canal Area-East Puget Sound Lowlands-Bellevue and Vicinity-Seattle and Vicinity-Bremerton and Vicinity-including Friday Harbor, Eastsound, Bellingham, Blaine,Point Roberts, Ferndale, Lynden, Sumas, Sudden Valley,Burlington, Mount Vernon, Sedro-Woolley, La Conner, Conway,Everett, Lynnwood, Marysville, Stanwood, Port Townsend,Oak Harbor, Coupeville, Langley, Shelton, Seabeck, Belfair,Brinnon, Bonney Lake, Maple Valley, Monroe, Woodinville,Arlington, Granite Falls, Lake Stevens, Snohomish, Gold Bar,Duvall, Carnation, Fall City, Snoqualmie, North Bend, Covington,Black Diamond, Orting, Eatonville, Bellevue, Bothell, Kenmore,Mill Creek, Clearview, Kirkland, Newcastle, Redmond, Sammamish,Issaquah, Seattle, White Center, Tukwila, Renton, Burien,Des Moines, Kent, Federal Way, Bremerton, Poulsbo, and Indianola333 PM PST Tue Jan 14 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM PST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Areas of heavy snow expected. Snow will spread east fromthe Olympic Peninsula later this evening and into the overnighthours. Localized heavier snow bands are expected to develop,especially from northern King County into Snohomish County.Areas within heavier bands could receive 3 to 5 inches of newsnow. Elsewhere, outside of the heavier bands, widespread lightto moderate snow may accumulate, 1 to 3 inches. Uncertaintycontinues in the placement of the heavy snow bands. Widespreadsnow fall will lift north towards the Canada border intoWednesday morning. * WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Washington. * WHEN...Until 7 AM PST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Travel, including the morning commute, could be verydifficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water inyour vehicle in case of an emergency. For the latest road conditions in Washington state, call 5 1 1. && $ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Have I mentioned just how much I love where I live now...it’s awesome! I’m up in those trees.Really... all lowland snow lovers should move to within 10 miles of you! As I said last week. Even North Bend does not do as well as your area at the same elevation. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Looking at sat pic and radar i would say the models are full of shitt. Seattle area will get a few inches is my prediction. 4 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Going to savor these last snowflakes coming down now since I am getting missed tonight.Reverse psychology again? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Only got to 28 today! It’s gonna warm up a bit later though it seems. Quote (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 NWS and Cliff Mass still going with Seattle northward for snow tonight.They are right . It never warms like the model wishes it would Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 And I am not talking about money. Like Kayla saying snow lovers should move to Bozeman. Which also happens to be pretty expensive.Bozeman gets 85” which is really good for a city of its size. Truckee, CA gets over 200”. Possibly the snowiest city over 5000 pop. Pretty expensive there as well though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Massive dumpage now! Wow! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Latest HRRR finally realized the error in it's ways and came around to all the other models. Only took about 12 hours after the 06z Euro. HRRR is honestly a trash model for anything beyond just 2-4 hours out. IMO it should just be used as a short term radar extrapolator and nothing else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Wow. Upgraded to a warning. A little surprised. They made sure to put maple valley in there so you feel better Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Looking at sat pic and radar i would say the models are full of shitt. Seattle area will get a few inches is my prediction.Agree. And I feel that the moisture from tomorrow's system will come in sooner than modeled. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Massive dumpage now! Wow!You getting scared yet? 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 I would love to live in Index and be escorted by wsp to and fro 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 You getting scared yet?I’m scared it will stop someday 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Down here at work along I-5. Love it!! 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Massive dumpage now! Wow!You can see the moisture streaming down the Strait now heading for our area. Radar is filling in nicely just to our west.Crap. It looks like it’s taking a left after exiting the straits heading north to your place! It did that last Febuary too as I recall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IceKing Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Is it just me or did last winter feel less depressing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Down here at work along I-5. Love it!! This thing is starting early... you gonna be buried tonight! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Awesome AFD write-up by Kovacik. Love all the detail she goes into and looking at the sat/radar/surface analysis that she mentions. This whole setup makes for a very tricky forecast this evening and overnight, as areas north of the stationary boundary lie in cold, modified arctic air. Recent MRMS radar imagery trends are showing signs of increasing precip echoes near the coast and offshore waters. Elsewhere, some convergent bands reside across the eastern Strait, with pesky snow showers across King and Snohomish counties. Things are expected to change later this evening and overnight tonight. Moisture will continue to increase along the boundary and precip coverage will expand east across the Olympic Peninsula and into Puget Sound. Strong WAA will increase in the vicinity of the stationary boundary, accompanied by a LLJ of 40-50kts near Puget Sound. This will aid in strong frontogensis along the frontal boundary, where it will then begin to slowly carry north. This is where a band(s) of moderate to heavy snowfall is (are) likely to develop. Although confidence in the development of heavy snow bands is moderate to high, pinpointing exactly where and exactly when these bands will occur is extremely difficult. Using hi-res model guidance as a forecasting tool thru this afternoon suggests a strong band could develop from Kitsap County into Northern King and southern Snohomish Counties. It might be slow to lift north initially but should eventually lift northward thru the night, with widespread lighter snow surrounding its vicinity and perhaps several additional narrow bands of moderate to heavy snow. It is important to keep in mind that this is the best thinking given the current data available. It still remains very possible this band could initially develop further north or south of current forecast (further south would impact the Seattle metro). Given the uncertainty in the placement of heavy snowfall, have upgraded Winter Storm Watch to Winter Storm Warning. This will largely become a nowcast as this develops further, with radar, satellite, observations, and reports being the primary tools for forecasting tonight. Banding and pockets of heavy snowfall are possible outside of Puget Sound as well. The northern Coast is likely to receive several inches tonight, along with the Olympic mountains and areas along the northern Peninsula along the Strait. As the band lifts north, widespread snowfall is likely from the Strait to the Canada border. Overall, heavy banding both across the Olympics and the lowlands around Puget Sound will lead to very narrow areas of impactful snow accumulation that could reach winter storm criteria (in the 3-5 inches range, generally speaking), with areas just outside of the band(s) possibly receiving much less or not very much at all. With this event, expecting sharp snowfall gradients, and more widespread accumulations of 1-3 inches (locally lower amounts too). In areas that receive several inches or more of snow overnight, travel impacts are highly likely into Wednesday morning. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randyc321 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 This is real time tracking now. No point looking at models in a dynamic situation a few hours away.Maybe I am crazy, but I think this system look more moist and more South than modeled. Every model shows it pointed right at the tip. It isn't. This thing is a monster. It won't take much for some of that moisture to make its way around the southern edge of the Olympics. It looks like its building tot hat now. Plus Aberdeen was not supposed to get hit good with the latest HRRR runs and they're not doing too bad right now. Look at the radar position in contrast to this image from the GFS showing the direction of the plume. This is not what the radar looks like. Definitely not slamming into Vancouver. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 Radar is improving from the northwest. From the trajectory, it looks like Tacoma might be in the dry slot from the Olympics. This is going to be interesting! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runninthruda206 Posted January 14, 2020 Report Share Posted January 14, 2020 precip further inland and a little bit south of what latest models showed. Might end up being good for the sound, hopefully. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Awesome AFD write-up by Kovacik. Love all the detail she goes into and looking at the sat/radar/surface analysis that she mentions.Reminds me of the old day's discussions. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 What are the odds this comes In a little south❄❄ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 18Z ECMWF just coming out... here is total snow from 4 p.m. to 4 a.m. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 I'm a long time lurker and follower and thought I would join. I'm feeling the same as the others in the south end, esp from Maple-Valley and Covington!! Wish we had more snow, but I can't complain. It was very pretty this morning, even with just a light dusting of an inch or two. I recall reading that Snowmizer went to his cabin last weekend for snow, and I'm doing the same on Friday. Should be plenty of snow in Winthrop, WA. I decided to build a cabin where we get true winter weather consistently Thanks to all for making this forum so informative. Beautiful pictures. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Finally the sun popped out. 28F You live in a beautiful area. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 If I ever relocate to the Seattle area I am going to get a place near Mossman. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Blue sky! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weather_fan Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 WSW is pretty much useless for SEA right? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 And I am not talking about money. Like Kayla saying snow lovers should move to Bozeman. Which also happens to be pretty expensive.I am looking for property in ID I am hoping to move this spring or summer. I can hardly wait. I am going to love the 6% sales tax there also along with real winters. This is just to freaking annoying. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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