Pacific Northwest Weather -June 2023

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I believe the real answer... in true Greta-fashion... is that there will be nothing left of the ecosystem in one month.  

If we had highs around 110 for a month then yes. Looks like the 06z GFS ensemble mean only tops out at 17.5C for SLE. Not bad. Probably settling into something of a summer 2018 rhythm now.  

 

[the_convergence_zone]

Last few Euro runs have backed off a bit on the heatwave. Peak of 17-18 C at 850 hPa which is a similar magnitude to the mid-May one, but such numbers are much more common climatologically in July. GEFS has consistent been colder and still only peaks at 15 C although there's so much noise in the GEFS that it's hard to take it seriously. 

Duration is also short--3rd and 4th being the hot days with some low-to-mid 80s leading up to it. Not a big deal. 

Personally I love how much Greta triggers people, it makes me appreciate what she has done even more.

 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If we had highs around 110 for a month then yes. Looks like the 06z GFS ensemble mean only tops out at 17.5C for SLE. Not bad. Probably settling into something of a summer 2018 rhythm now.  

 

Should be a cooler summer than 2018 simply due to greater variability in the pattern. There’s a lot of destructive interference evident in the subseasonal scale forcings already.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

Should be a cooler summer than 2018 simply due to greater variability in the pattern. There’s a lot of destructive interference evident in the subseasonal scale forcings already.

You are probably right. July 2018 was underrated for how consistently hot it was. 

[Phil]

Even 1972, which had -PMM/-PDO in June in tandem with the developing niño, saw that flip to neutral and then positive in Jul/Aug.

No indication that will happen this year. And Atlantic is inverted from 1972 as well. There’s really nothing in the satellite era that is representative at the moment.

Tough year to make seasonal forecasts!

[TT-SEA]

32 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If we had highs around 110 for a month then yes. Looks like the 06z GFS ensemble mean only tops out at 17.5C for SLE. Not bad. Probably settling into something of a summer 2018 rhythm now.  

 

And highs of 110 for a month is very likely to happen... right Greta?  

[Cascadia_Wx]

Low of 53 this morning with low clouds moving in before sunrise. Currently cloudy, cool and 56.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Definitely a different progression on the last few GFS runs. Not much of a heatwave at all on the 12z with the bulk of the ridging staying offshore.

Don’t really buy it until the Euro jumps on board, although I guess it made a small move in that direction last night.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Definitely a different progression on the last few GFS runs. Not much of a heatwave at all on the 12z with the bulk of the ridging staying offshore.

Don’t really buy it until the Euro jumps on board, although I guess it made a small move in that direction last night.

Would be quite a blessing. Though it could be a long run of a low grade fever. 

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

And highs of 110 for a month is very likely to happen... right Greta?  

Can't spell great without Greta.

[Phishy Wx]

sky has some haze today.  Smoke from somewhere I guess

[Front Ranger]

Euro continues to move more towards GFS and away from a major heatwave.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Euro continues to move more towards GFS and away from a major heatwave.

Good news. It's a sad world we live in where our trauma is mocked.

[Eugene-5SW]

I'd rather have a quick-hitter 100º day with a cool-down to (old-school) normals afterward than an endless string of 90º days like we've had every recent summer, and toward which the models seem to be gravitating yet again.

Those pooh-poohing the ecosystem destruction angle might remember that down here at least, we're going in with the accumulated stress of over a decade of consistently hot and dry summers, an overall dry winter, and the driest May+June on record.

[TT-SEA]

38 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Would be quite a blessing. Though it could be a long run of a low grade fever. 

That is ideal.    Lots of consistent warmth but no heat... goldilocks weather.     Heat waves are not enjoyable.  

[TT-SEA]

Technically the 00Z ECMWF is a little warmer for the 4th than its 00Z run.    Would be nice to just have 80s across the region.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

14 minutes ago, Eugene-5SW said:

I'd rather have a quick-hitter 100º day with a cool-down to (old-school) normals afterward than an endless string of 90º days like we've had every recent summer, and toward which the models seem to be gravitating yet again.

Those pooh-poohing the ecosystem destruction angle might remember that down here at least, we're going in with the accumulated stress of over a decade of consistently hot and dry summers, an overall dry winter, and the driest May+June on record.

Springfield also had very little snow here compared to the rest of the region over the last winter. It's been a pretty bad stretch of heat for sure. Once the cities are burning maybe they'll understand.

[TT-SEA]

72 and sunny at noon... a beautiful summer day in progress.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

15 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Springfield also had very little snow here compared to the rest of the region over the last winter. It's been a pretty bad stretch of heat for sure. Once the cities are burning maybe they'll understand.

I hear ya. I don't think whether or not the lowest elevations get snow in the winter makes much if any difference, but I understand your point. 

Low elevation Western Washington is probably a couple of decades out from the big fires. They are about where we were 20-25 years ago. Blissfully unaware. Someone else's problem. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

72 and sunny at noon... a beautiful summer day in progress.  

It may seem as if summer has just begun, well not really since it started in late April once again, but the clock is ticking. 90 days from now and we will be in late-September. If we end up with a tolerable September, then we probably only have about 75 days of true summer left. They will go fast, and we will breath a sigh of relief once they pass. 

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It may seem as if summer has just begun, well not really since it started in late April once again, but the clock is ticking. 90 days from now and we will be in late-September. If we end up with a tolerable September, then we probably only have about 75 days of true summer left. They will go fast, and we will breath a sigh of relief once they pass. 

It's been a beautiful warm season.   Cherish every day.   ♥ 

Should also be an early spring next year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

It's been a beautiful warm season.   Cherish every day.   ♥ 

Should also be an early spring next year.

Hoping for a spring 2010 redux. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hoping for a spring 2010 redux. 

Spring 2010 was pretty nice.   It was the mid May through mid June period that got a little wonky.   But it was only 30 days.    Seems like nothing after late March through mid June last year.   

[Omegaraptor]

Heat returns to CA with a vengeance on the 12z Euro. Shows mid-110s in the Central Valley next weekend.

Been a while since we’ve had a California-centric heat wave.

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Heat returns to CA with a vengeance on the 12z Euro. Shows mid-110s in the Central Valley next weekend.

Been a while since we’ve had a California-centric heat wave.

12Z EPS shows warmth returning to CA... but then seems to go back to something closer to the current pattern later in the run with cooler 850mb anomalies in CA compared to the PNW. 

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I hear ya. I don't think whether or not the lowest elevations get snow in the winter makes much if any difference, but I understand your point. 

Low elevation Western Washington is probably a couple of decades out from the big fires. They are about where we were 20-25 years ago. Blissfully unaware. Someone else's problem. 

There were a bunch of fires in the western foothills of the North Cascades last fall. Not the mega fires of Oregon, but significant for up there.

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Spring 2010 was pretty nice.   It was the mid May through mid June period that got a little wonky.   But it was only 30 days.    Seems like nothing after late March through mid June last year.   

Would be nice to actually have a spring next year.

[TT-SEA]

More summer perfection.   Can also see some convective activity to the east which seems to have a little more westward momentum today per the satellite. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

27 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Would be nice to actually have a spring next year.

We had one last year. Classic PNW spring. It was beautiful. 

[LowerGarfield]

Went from sunny to dark skies in about an hour. No thunder or lightning as best I can tell.

[Phishy Wx]

pretty chilly today.....

 

.....inside my house

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Went from sunny to dark skies in about an hour. No thunder or lightning as best I can tell.

seems dim here too.  not sure if high clouds or a smoke layer.  maybe the sun was turned down a little

[T-Town]

Just ordered a Tempest Weatherflow weather station. My first weather station after many years of procrastination. 

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Just ordered a Tempest Weatherflow weather station. My first weather station after many years of procrastination. 

I’ve been in the market too and that’s on my short list.

[TT-SEA]

29 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We had one last year. Classic PNW spring. It was beautiful. 

That wasn't classic anything.   That was far from any long term normal.    And nature sure was intent on offsetting it with the opposite extreme.   

[Front Ranger]

35 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We had one last year. Classic PNW spring. It was beautiful. 

Classically much wetter than normal lol...

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Classically much wetter than normal lol...

Per Andrew... the benchmark for normal PNW weather is the coldest and wettest periods ever recorded in any year all put together.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Per Andrew... the benchmark for normal PNW weather is the coldest and wettest periods ever recorded in any year all put together.   

We ended up with 30" of rain in the April, May, June period. 

[Phil]

So close yet so far.  

 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS shows warmth returning to CA... but then seems to go back to something closer to the current pattern later in the run with cooler 850mb anomalies in CA compared to the PNW. 

 

Yeah CA heat ain’t gonna last.