June 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Phil]

I am getting a sense that there will be no warm up later next week... models keep trending towards keeping a ULL parked over the PNW.

 

The default trough position is difficult to break.

There will be a warm up. It’s just not a prolonged one with EHEM forcing remaining dominant in the long run and an unfavorable state of AAM transfer (for western ridging). The ridge will try to retrograde into the GOA as soon as it develops..but that doesn’t mean it will be *immediately* successful at doing so. There’s a good chance for a warmer 7-10 day interval.

[Timmy Supercell]

Cicadas on this side of the country?

I believe we have 1 or 2 species. I definitely hear a buzzing insect like a cicada in July and August here on the east side of town.

 

We do have cicadas in the western US. Though I believe they're mostly east of the cascades. When I used to live near Portland I never heard them. Kind of like how I never saw a house centipede once when I grew up and suddenly they're a weekly occurrence here in Klamath Falls.

 

They make a high-pitched buzzing noise. We just don't have swarms of them unlike the midwest (I hear some rather hilarious stories about cicadas in the central US).

There is typically only one or two of them buzzing on our block at once.

[Blizzard777]

Moderate rain with this band coming through.

58*

[Phil]

Cicadas on this side of the country?

There’s one species out there, I think. But it’s annual and this would be early for an emergence.

 

I’ve been doing research on cicadas in anticipation of the re-emergence of Brood-X here next year...I remember the 2004 emergence like it was yesterday. The noise was deafening.

 

Apparently, “annual” cicadas stagger their emergence by approximately 1-3 years such that they’ll emerge every year. If one particular summer is favorable for the cicadas to survive and reproduce, the subsequent years would possibly feature more above-ground activity. So those warm/dry summers in 2017/18 could have increased numbers of reproducing cicadas which are emerging now.

 

Around here we don’t start hearing the annual cicadas until late June, and activity peaks in August. Still dead quiet here as of today, minus the frogs and spring crickets.

 

Usually it’s scissor grinder that emerges first, followed by swamp cicada, dog day cicada, hieroglyphic cicada, Lynne’s cicada, and Walker’s cicada in early/mid July. The most common/loudest species locally are scissor grinder cicada and swamp cicada, with the latter singing most frequently in the AM hours and the latter singing more frequently in the PM hours. There’s often a lull in activity when the Sun is most intense, during the midday hours.

 

And I’ve noticed species will “take turns” singing from June to mid-July, then will sing en masses together from late July through mid-September. It’s weird af, and I can’t find any information or research on why this is.

[Timmy Supercell]

There’s one species out there, I think. But it’s annual and this would be early for an emergence.

 

I’ve been doing research on cicadas in anticipation of the re-emergence of Brood-X here next year...I remember the 2004 emergence like it was yesterday. The noise was deafening.

 

Apparently, “annual” cicadas stagger their emergence by approximately 1-3 years such that they’ll emerge every year. If one particular summer is favorable for the cicadas to survive and reproduce, the subsequent years would possibly feature more above-ground activity. So those warm/dry summers in 2017/18 could have increased numbers of reproducing cicadas which are emerging now.

 

Around here we don’t start hearing the annual cicadas until late June, and activity peaks in August. Usually it’s scissor grinder that emerges first, followed by swamp cicada, dog day cicada, hieroglyphic cicada, Lynne’s cicada, and Walker’s cicada in July. The most common/loudest species are scissor grinder cicada and swamp cicada, with the latter singing most frequently in the AM hours and the latter singing more frequently in the PM hours. There’s often a lull in activity when the Sun is most intense, during the midday hours.

 

Bugs generally speaking were more numerous in my town in 2017. Some folks west of the mountains were saying they noticed less bees but I saw the exact opposite what others were experiencing. We came off of a rather wet first 4 months of that year, that may have contributed to a little more green growth and pollination. My next door neighbors in fact occasionally had mini swarms of fuzzy bumble bees. One of the times I was trying to take pictures of anvils/mammatus filling my east sky that June, about 30 of those things were flying around me. lol

 

And yeah almost just about every morning between the hours of 9am-3pm they were buzzing in my yard that year. Especially after a period of storms I'd hear them hours straight at a time.

[Phil]

You betcha. They aren't like the 13 or 17 year cicadas that the east coast gets. They are annual and a bit smaller than the ones back east.

This is an interesting site. Has all of the North American Cicada species, ranges, and audio. Including the ones in the PNW.

 

https://www.cicadamania.com/cicadas/common-cicadas-of-north-america/

 

Little known fact about the periodical broods is they have fairly sharp boundaries and rarely overlap. Some broods even have “pockets“ within the territory of other broods, and those pockets will only contain the “invader” brood.

 

Around here it’s Brood-X that emerges every 17 years, but drive 40 miles south and it’s a different 13 year brood with no Brood-X activity whatsoever.

 

We have a s**tload of annual cicadas too, but those overlap everywhere with the only decipherable boundaries correlated to soil type and topography.

[Phil]

Apparently the species in WA/OR has the scientific name “O. rimosa rimosa”, commonly referred to as “Say’s Cicada”.

 

https://www.cicadamania.com/cicadas/okanagana-rimosa-rimosa-say-1830-aka-says-cicada/

[MossMan]

Lovely morning, drizzly and cool. Feels fresh outside.

 

Really hoping for a stretch of warm and dry weather though. My wife and I bought a house and we have a few days of moving where any wet precip is going to complicate things.

Congrats on the house! Lake Stevens area?

[Deweydog]

These last few posts really bug me.

[Phil]

Lol.

 

More PNW-included sub-species, starting at page 204.

 

https://www.cicadamania.com/downloads/diversity-05-00166.pdf

 

Edit: so apparently “O. occidentalis” is the sub-species of Say’s Cicada in the PNW?

[Timmy Supercell]

Apparently the species in WA/OR has the scientific name “O. rimosa rimosa”, commonly referred to as “Say’s Cicada”.

 

https://www.cicadamania.com/cicadas/okanagana-rimosa-rimosa-say-1830-aka-says-cicada/

 

I first learned of the Cicada insect in a video game called Animal Crossing, and I used to think those were exclusively Japanese insects when I was young. I didn't start hearing them until I came to this town on the east slopes.

[TacomaWaWx]

Moderate rain with this band coming through.

58*

Just pushed East of here...still sprinkling and 0.09” so far today.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

What is he basing this on? The hot weather in the southwest and California will eventually make its way up here based on what we have seen in recent years. Seasonal weather for now sounds nice hehheh

He usually mentions he looks at the EURO weeklies, teleconnections and the CFSv2 weeklies along with his own personal intuitions.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Lovely morning, drizzly and cool. Feels fresh outside.

 

Really hoping for a stretch of warm and dry weather though. My wife and I bought a house and we have a few days of moving where any wet precip is going to complicate things.

Same here. I wanna go out on the water again with the family.

[Omegaraptor]

Nice day.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF and GFS are comically different for later next week.  

 

I assume the GFS is correct which has become the norm.

[Omegaraptor]

ECMWF and GFS are comically different for later next week.  

 

I assume the GFS is correct which has become the norm.

FWIW, the operational GFS is a huge outlier from the ensembles.

[Jesse]

having real issues with how quick to eject the low.

Looks like the ensembles moved in that direction too.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW, the operational GFS is a huge outlier from the ensembles.

 

 

Yeah... the GFS is completely on its own with no support from the GEFS or EPS or even the GEM.

 

And I assume it will be right despite having no support.

[Blizzard777]

Just pushed East of here...still sprinkling and 0.09” so far today.

.14 here with a rain rate of .25 in/hr 

Perhaps the sun will peek out in a bit 

[Jesse]

What is it we are worrying about now. The idea that we might not soar into the 90s immediately starting later next week?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Rained a little this morning.

[Timmy Supercell]

What is it we are worrying about now. The idea that we might not soar into the 90s immediately starting later next week?

 

There's an equal chance of at least "nice" weather to end June, it's not like most of us are addicted to really hot weather or anything.

 

Maybe a few 80-85 in the long range.

[TT-SEA]

What is it we are worrying about now. The idea that we might not soar into the 90s immediately starting later next week?

 

 

That it will be in the low 60s with low clouds and drizzle.    I could not care less about heat... I just want a break from daily rain.   And if it takes a ridge to do that then fine.

[Timmy Supercell]

Rained a little this morning.

 

Woke up to 90% clear skies, few cirrus/chemtrails to the east.

 

Some more cumulus fields and rumbles certain later today.

[Phil]

FWIW, the operational GFS is a huge outlier from the ensembles.

It’s not *that* different. The large scale pattern progression is fairly similar.

[Deweydog]

Cool as a cucumber Jesse has persisted for SEVERAL days now!

 

Cold (late) spring.

[Jesse]

It’s not *that* different. The large scale pattern progression is fairly similar.

I was thinking the same thing. I think people get too caught up in the details sometimes when they are trying to see what they want to see.

 

GEFS actually made a step toward the operational.

[Jesse]

[TT-SEA]

The difference between the GFS and the GEFS is significant for later next week.    

 

Here is the GEFS for next weekend...

 

[Phil]

[Phil]

I was thinking the same thing. I think people get too caught up in the details sometimes when they are trying to see what they want to see.

 

GEFS actually made a step toward the operational.

Precisely. I only look at the big picture because in the end, it’s (usually)the big picture that drives the small picture. And the latter is not often decipherable in a conglomeration of ensemble perturbations.

[TT-SEA]

The GEFS mean retrogrades the week 2 anticyclone westward with time, just like the operational. The big picture is what matters, not the small scale, micro-regional details. Focusing on the latter via an ensemble mean will drive you crazy.

 

You can also look at historical pattern progressions most analogous to the present in terms of forcings/in-situ boundary states, and project from there with models as an additional guide.

 

Either way, the general conclusion is the same in terms of the where this pattern is (likely) headed (building west coast ridge which retrogrades into the GOA over a period of a week or two).

 

Yes... big picture is different.

 

Not that it matters but here is the end of the GEFS:

 

[Jesse]

Precisely. I only look at the big picture because in the end, it’s (usually)the big picture that drives the small picture. And the latter is not often decipherable in a conglomeration of ensemble perturbations.

Can make for a nice looking orange smeared 384 hour map though. Who needs viagra?

[Phil]

IMO, one shouldn’t use temperature anomalies to analyze the wave structure and pattern progression on an ensemble mean.

 

Try daily/sub-daily 500mb geopotential height anomalies and loop it. They’ll be much more helpful to you.

[TT-SEA]

A couple weeks ago... the GEFS in the long range was a massive smear of blue over the west.

[TT-SEA]

IMO, one shouldn’t use temperature anomalies to analyze the wave structure and pattern progression on an ensemble mean.

 

Try daily/sub-daily 500mb geopotential height anomalies and loop it. They’ll be much more helpful to you.

 

True.

 

[Phil]

A couple weeks ago... the GEFS in the long range was a massive smear of blue over the west.

And that’s fine. But if the pattern is evolving and there are uncertainties, 500mb height anomalies will (generally) reveal more. Especially when surface/boundary layer physics and spatial resolution are so vastly different between an operational model and its ensemble mean (for instance, in the case of the GFS/GEFS).

[Timmy Supercell]

[TT-SEA]

And that’s fine. But if the pattern is evolving and there are uncertainties, 500mb height anomalies will (generally) reveal more. Especially when surface/boundary layer physics and spatial resolution are so vastly different between an operational model and its ensemble mean (for instance, in the case of the GFS/GEFS).

 

 

True.