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2020-21 Autumn & Winter Discussion


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Hope it is acceptable w the mods by starting this topic in July.

 

I have been hearing lately about a lot of "Polar Vortex" visiting our nation next Winter and a lot more snow for many. Last year it never unleashed its fury, until late Winter and into Spring, where snows were falling in April and in May. This upcoming Winter will be different. Lake Effect snows also will be amazing as well, since there is a lot of warm water available. Upper Midwest will freeze as P.V visits are much more frequent and stronger. Michigan likely to see major snowstorms. Again, it is very early to predict what will happen, but it is looking very good for many. Lets discuss...........

 

 

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I was able to shoot a few hours north to the Starvation Lake area on my day off. It's a tad early even for NCMI but I was hopeful things might be running ahead of schedule there like downstate. Not su

Never got this in sunlight but I thought these were neat pictures. In sunlight, that color looks like literal red fire.  

Hope all are well. Those who know me know I post little during the warm season, especially with the virtually non-existent tornado season in this era. Gimme an 07-08 Nina repeat and I'd be a very happ

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Thanks Niko!  I was debating on when to fire up this thread but I'm glad you did.  While we are at the mid point of Summer, it's not to early to start thinking about Autumn and cooler thoughts.  Based on what I'm seeing at this range, things are indeed looking much more interesting this season.  Last year, I busted badly and I hope that my intuition for this season is right.  We need that blocking to rock this year!

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On 7/15/2020 at 5:59 AM, Tom said:

Thanks Niko!  I was debating on when to fire up this thread but I'm glad you did.  While we are at the mid point of Summer, it's not to early to start thinking about Autumn and cooler thoughts.  Based on what I'm seeing at this range, things are indeed looking much more interesting this season.  Last year, I busted badly and I hope that my intuition for this season is right.  We need that blocking to rock this year!

You bet! B4 ya know it, August will be here and the countdown to "Meteorological" Autumn will be upon us. Funny how time flies by.

 

We all have to bust in our lifetime to learn from our mistakes, so don't let that concern you. In the meantime, looking forward in reading your thoughts on this upcoming, excited "Winter Season."

 

 

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You bet! B4 ya know it, August will be here and the countdown to "Meteorological" Autumn will be upon us. Funny how time flies

 

Btw: What the heck happened to our buddies, Jaster and Clinton??!! We need them on here. :wacko:

 

Clinton probably hibernates in the summer haha

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

2020-21: 2.9" (so far)

 

Average: 25.9"

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Hope it is acceptable w the mods by starting this topic in July.

 

I have been hearing lately about a lot of "Polar Vortex" visiting our nation next Winter and a lot more snow for many. Last year it never unleashed its fury, until late Winter and into Spring, where snows were falling in April and in May. This upcoming Winter will be different. Lake Effect snows also will be amazing as well, since there is a lot of warm water available. Upper Midwest will freeze as P.V visits are much more frequent and stronger. Michigan likely to see major snowstorms. Again, it is very early to predict what will happen, but it is looking very good for many. Lets discuss...........

 

 

Just from looking at the thumbnail, that Winter prediction gives me deja vu feelings. Kind of like that's the same map from last year. And the year before that. And the year before that.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Last winter was a complete bust on the west coast. We are experiencing our 3rd straight much driest than normal water year. With -ENSO emerging it seems likely we will have an active storm season at the very least. The past three winters here have also had essentially nothing in December and January. February and March have been a big more interesting however. 

 

We are probably due for a wet October-January period more than anything. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0                         2020-21: 14.69"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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"Alright, Alright, Alright..."...it's that time of year when I start thinking about "cooler" thoughts and the Autumn season ahead along with a glimpse at what the models are showing for the upcoming cold season.  Is anyone else thinking the same???  While we are enduring what most of us can say are the "dog days of summer", it won't be long till we are enjoying Labor Day weekend and the unofficial end to Summer.  The question is, will the wx pattern in Sept present the same theme we have seen for several years in a row, whereby summer weather continues into Sept???  Let's see what the models have to say about this.

 

I looked at the JMA/CFSv2/Euro/UKMET seasonal runs and the common feature from all of them is the development of some sort of ridge out west and across eastern Canada, perhaps near Greenland if you believe the CFSv2.  This such 500mb pattern would "flip the script" of the string of warm to hot Sept's in recent years.  Do I believe them???  Well, my gut says Yes, but then the voice in my head says..."don't fall for it!"  It's interesting to see the majority of the models agree with a very similar 500mb pattern.  What about temps/precip patterns???

 

The JMA shows this...

 

Y202007.D0500_gl2.png

 

 

 

Y202007.D0500_gl0.png

 

 

 

The CFSv2 has been rather consistent with the overall pattern and showing near normal temps east of the Rockies, similar to the JMA.  The Euro seasonal is not as cool and holds onto the idea that warmer conditions will prevail, however, with the aforementioned 500mb pattern it is showing I'd be cautious of this scenario.

 

What about the UKIE???  Well, I don't get access to the individual runs but the public site allows you to see multi-month runs and they show the same signal for a ridge out west and off the coast of eastern Canada.

 

2cat_20200701_z500_months24_global_deter

 

 

 

Temps...seasonal central, warm west and east....

 

 

2cat_20200701_temp2m_months24_global_det

 

Precip...very wet eastern 2/3rd's of the nation...

 

2cat_20200701_prec_months24_global_deter

 

 

 

 

In short, I'm looking forward to seeing the trends in the models over the coming weeks to come.  Will they continue to show consistency as we move along???  I will be pondering on these ideas during the remaining days/weeks of Summer.  Later this week I'll dive deeper into the Autumn season as a whole and what could be a winter season that shall finally have some real deal blocking.

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I know it is only July 22nd but today Accuweather came out with their fall outlook. So for what it is worth here is their fall 2020 outlook.

Fall 2020 Highlights:

Northeast, mid-Atlantic, Great Lakes, eastern Ohio Valley – There will be a mix of dry and some wet periods. It will be warm overall, but a quick change in November can bring chilly periods. Fall foliage colors can be good, but delayed by one to two weeks with some early drop in areas due to mid- and late-summer dryness. Tropical moisture can spread along New England coast, especially in October leading to flooding (moderate confidence).

Southeast, Tennessee Valley, Gulf Coast – Tropical impacts can lead to flooding and damaging winds Gulf states and Carolinas; it will be warm and rather humid much of the time, perhaps cooling in late fall with drier weather. Fall foliage in the interior should be good and vibrant, but any storm can bring early drop of leaves (moderate confidence).

Western Ohio Valley, Midwest, northern Plains – Warm overall, perhaps some record warmth in September. A few strong thunderstorm events can occur across the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Harvest looks good in eastern areas with enough dry periods to be on time or early. Some delays are possible from frequent showers in the northern Plains. Fall foliage will be good, but delayed, in eastern and northern areas. Southern areas will be a bit duller due to mid- and late-summer heat and dryness (lower to moderate confidence).

Based on their guess it could be warm and dry this fall season.

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Hmmmm, this is looking like a different start to September compared to recent years.  Both the CFSv2/Euro Weeklies showing somewhat of a central or eastern CONUS trough.  Will this be a warm or cool Labor Day weekend this year???

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The forecasted La Nina is starting to show its face across the the central Pacific ocean.  Colder waters have shown to be up welling first across the eastern PAC, but now more so in the central PAC.

 

 

The last 30- days...

 

 

ssta_animation_30day_large.gif

 

 

 

Notice the Sub Surface waters in the west PAC have cooled and seemingly appear to be cooling the entire basin....

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

 

With that being said, the majority of the global models are showing a massive area of the central and portions of the southern PAC to cool over the next 30-60 days.  Both the CFS and CanSIPS are in agreement.

 

glbSSTMonInd2.gif

 

 

cansips_ssta_noice_global_2.png

 

 

 

 

In fact, the CanSIPS is suggesting the La Nina to become a mod/strong central-based Nina by Oct/Nov...???  The trend off this model has been colder and more widespread cooling when comparing to previous runs.  For instance, look at the last 5 runs for December...interesting to say the least.

 

cansips_ssta_noice_global_3.png

 

cansips_ssta_noice_global_4.png

 

 

 

 

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Hmmmm, this is looking like a different start to September compared to recent years. Both the CFSv2/Euro Weeklies showing somewhat of a central or eastern CONUS trough. Will this be a warm or cool Labor Day weekend this year???

Ooohh.... PLEASE!!

This will be one of the most "classic" and beautiful autumns ever here.

 

With respect to your 2017 comments in another post, while I do agree with that particular look that day, this next 6 weeks won't be anything like the last 5 years have been. :)

 

If that map verifies, you folks need to come down to the Ozarks and Boston Mountains this fall. It's going to be phenomenal.

 

Tree fatigue or stress this year is the lowest on August 1 since probably 2008 in my memory. Very little blemishes or even yellowing on any trees.

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Ooohh.... PLEASE!!

This will be one of the most "classic" and beautiful autumns ever here.

 

With respect to your 2017 comments in another post, while I do agree with that particular look that day, this next 6 weeks won't be anything like the last 5 years have been. :)

 

If that map verifies, you folks need to come down to the Ozarks and Boston Mountains this fall. It's going to be phenomenal.

 

Tree fatigue or stress this year is the lowest on August 1 since probably 2008 in my memory. Very little blemishes or even yellowing on any trees.

That sounds like a great idea!  BTW, I only used Aug '17 as an analog for this Summer and not so much for the upcoming Autumn.  Like you said, there is more interesting data that I"m seeing which lead me to believe it will be different.

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That sounds like a great idea! BTW, I only used Aug '17 as an analog for this Summer and not so much for the upcoming Autumn. Like you said, there is more interesting data that I"m seeing which lead me to believe it will be different.

Yes sir. I agree with your point in that regard. Spot-on actually.

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When was the last mod-strong La Nina?

Did a quick search and it appears to have been in 2017-18 where it reach moderate category (-1.0C)  during NDJ and just below during winter DJF with a 0.9C reading.  I remember that winter was dubbed "Dakota Special".  We lacked the blocking ALL season long.  The PAC NW and N Rockies got pummeled with snow early and often.

 

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

 

 

Edit: @OK mentioned 2010-11 as the last borderline mod/strong Nina and it looks like it was.

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Did a quick search and it appears to have been in 2017-18 where it reach moderate category (-1.0C) during NDJ and just below during winter DJF with a 0.9C reading. I remember that winter was dubbed "Dakota Special". We lacked the blocking ALL season long. The PAC NW and N Rockies got pummeled with snow early and often.

 

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

 

 

Edit: @OK mentioned 2010-11 as the last borderline mod/strong Nina and it looks like it was.

2000-2001 was a cold brutal winter in our area; I know the Great Lakes region did even better! Was that a weak La Niña?

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2000-2001 was a cold brutal winter in our area; I know the Great Lakes region did even better! Was that a weak La Niña?

Yup, looks like a weak Niña (-0.7C) transitioning out of a strong Niña the year prior.

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Did a quick search and it appears to have been in 2017-18 where it reach moderate category (-1.0C) during NDJ and just below during winter DJF with a 0.9C reading. I remember that winter was dubbed "Dakota Special". We lacked the blocking ALL season long. The PAC NW and N Rockies got pummeled with snow early and often.

 

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

 

 

Edit: @OK mentioned 2010-11 as the last borderline mod/strong Nina and it looks like it was.

2016-17 was the so called dakota special winter. I remember reading a snow report that Feb from somebody in Wyoming describing that winter as the best powder year ever.

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2016-17 was the so called dakota special winter. I remember reading a snow report that Feb from somebody in Wyoming describing that winter as the best powder year ever.

If you're me, Dakota Special has been every year from 2015-2020. Lol. Half-decade of Suckville anywhere not named the Northwest or coastal New England. :lol:

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2016-17 was the so called dakota special winter. I remember reading a snow report that Feb from somebody in Wyoming describing that winter as the best powder year ever.

Ahh, yes...I got my years screwed up...thanks for the correction.  That year the ENSO was neutral and remember how warm our winter was bc of that consistent GOA Low.  Back in 2017-18 was the year OMA had a record snowfall if I remember correctly and the Upper MW/GL's did phenomenal.  Every single system literally tracked over head around here.  You guys up north had a banner second half of Winter into Spring.

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Ahh, yes...I got my years screwed up...thanks for the correction. That year the ENSO was neutral and remember how warm our winter was bc of that consistent GOA Low. Back in 2017-18 was the year OMA had a record snowfall if I remember correctly and the Upper MW/GL's did phenomenal. Every single system literally tracked over head around here. You guys up north had a banner second half of Winter into Spring.

2018-19 was the awesome Winter for Nebraska. 2017-18 was near average, and lacking any appreciable snowfall.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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2018-19 was the awesome Winter for Nebraska. 2017-18 was near average, and lacking any appreciable snowfall.

Crap, got that one wrong! Seems like all these years blend into one for me bc of all the misses and Low’s tracking right over me. ‘17-‘18 was the Upper Mw/N GL’s year for sure. I remember storm after storm dumpin’ 6-12” and building a flavor. Our member Brian sent pics of a 3’ Base in N Wisco! Crazy times. Let’s get something similar this year but farther south and share the wealth!

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Crap, got that one wrong! Seems like all these years blend into one for me bc of all the misses and Low’s tracking right over me. ‘17-‘18 was the Upper Mw/N GL’s year for sure. I remember storm after storm dumpin’ 6-12” and building a flavor. Our member Brian sent pics of a 3’ Base in N Wisco! Crazy times. Let’s get something similar this year but farther south and share the wealth!

I'll take another 2016-17 up here

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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I'll take another 2016-17 up here

I think you'd be disappointed with 2016-17 overall in Fargo.  November through Mid December was way above normal temps.  Mid December to Mid January was a good stretch of winter temps and snow.  Second half of January was a huge meltdown.  First half of February recovered just enough winter to be satisfying before another meltdown the second half.  Presidents day weekend brought a large rainstorm to the entire region that was pretty much the end of winter.

 

The dakota special train of cutters dumped snow primarily on central ND (Bismark) from late November through mid January.  But Mid January was the end of that train. 

There was a freak snowstorm mid november that dumped 2 feet of snow in central and ne minnesota, but even that melted due to the warm temps by the end of November.     

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Alright, 4th year's a charm. Lol. Give me the reasons this sst map won't produce cold in the only place it can. The CONUS.

cdas-sflux_ssta_relative_global_1 (2).png

 

Based on what little more I know now about thermodynamics and history, something radical is about to happen.

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Alright, 4th year's a charm. Lol. Give me the reasons this sst map won't produce cold in the only place it can. The CONUS.

cdas-sflux_ssta_relative_global_1 (2).png

 

Based on what little more I know now about thermodynamics and history, something radical is about to happen.

I like to see the warm waters near Greenland and HOPE it can hold to produce some blocking this season. West-based block would be ideal.

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Alright, 4th year's a charm. Lol. Give me the reasons this sst map won't produce cold in the only place it can. The CONUS.

attachicon.gifcdas-sflux_ssta_relative_global_1 (2).png

Based on what little more I know now about thermodynamics and history, something radical is about to happen.

you don't want to know larry cosgroves thoughts as he sees another rotten winter he been hot on the global warming trend as of late.
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you don't want to know larry cosgroves thoughts as he sees another rotten winter he been hot on the global warming trend as of late.

I really like that guy a lot and he's been great the last 3 years. Has beaten me flat, no contest if we were competing head to head for a winter forecast.

 

However, if he's that sold on it already, without reasons or descriptions, I'd say he's wrong. I'd have to read what he's said to understand. You got a link?

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I really like that guy a lot and he's been great the last 3 years. Has beaten me flat, no contest if we were competing head to head for a winter forecast.

However, if he's that sold on it already, without reasons or descriptions, I'd say he's wrong. I'd have to read what he's said to understand. You got a link?

he been talking some about it in his weekly news letters he post but you have to sign up to join it .https://groups.google.com/forum/m/#!forum/weatheramerica
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The JAMSTEC has come in with new data suggesting a mixed signal for the SON period if you digest the 3 different model runs.  The common denominator, however, is moisture.

 

To save time, I included the mean precip for the SON period as well as the SST forecast...

 

 

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Here is the latest Euro Seasonal...it is also quite dry...if you look closely at the modeled temps, it is showing very subtle signs of a trough in the East.  If you take away the warm bias in the modeling, IMO, it suggests to look for more seasonal temps and even BN in places east of the Rockies.

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It's interesting to see both the CFSv2 and Euro weeklies agreeing on an amplified North American blocking pattern with massive ridges setting up off both coasts and suggesting a large area of seasonal to cooler than normal temps for those east of the Rockies.  This would certainly flip the pattern we have seen in recent years for the month of September.

 

Both models are also seeing a significant cool shot end of September along with multiple rounds of cold fronts during the entire month.  I got a feeling it's going to get rather volatile as Autumn settles a lot earlier this year than in recent years.  At the moment, it does not appear that "Endlesss Summer" will have legs this season.

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It's interesting to see both the CFSv2 and Euro weeklies agreeing on an amplified North American blocking pattern with massive ridges setting up off both coasts and suggesting a large area of seasonal to cooler than normal temps for those east of the Rockies. This would certainly flip the pattern we have seen in recent years for the month of September.

 

Both models are also seeing a significant cool shot end of September along with multiple rounds of cold fronts during the entire month. I got a feeling it's going to get rather volatile as Autumn settles a lot earlier this year than in recent years. At the moment, it does not appear that "Endlesss Summer" will will have legs this season.

Yeah. I have no disagreements here. All hints point to a violent but beautiful autumn here.

 

Here's to the last big week or so of major summer heat. Good riddance.

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Here are a couple models showing the 500mb pattern from Nov-Jan...last year, the UKIE nailed the winter forecast and showed zero blocking near Greenland.  This year, however, it is does show some blocking at this range and the Euro has absolutely ZERO blocking in the Arctic regions and Greenland (Strong Polar Vortex).  We really need to see the UKIE and Euro trend towards more blocking in the months ahead to feel any confidence of this transpiring.  The other big clue is the nasty ridge near the NE PAC.  The Euro is showing it south of the Bearing Sea which is a strong signal for a large scale SER.  Meanwhile, the UKIE is a bit farther east which correlates to a less amped SER but still a threat.  Nonetheless, I highly believe the SER will be a big player but to what extent is up in the air.

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A quick ENSO update and one will notice an obvious subsurface cooling trend which will allow the central/eastern based La Nina to grow over the coming weeks.

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

Nearly all the ENSO regions are reporting weak La Nina conditions except for the eastern central PAC where its rather cold!

 

 

ssta_c.gif

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A quick ENSO update and one will notice an obvious subsurface cooling trend which will allow the central/eastern based La Nina to grow over the coming weeks.

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

Nearly all the ENSO regions are reporting weak La Nina conditions except for the eastern central PAC where its rather cold!

 

 

ssta_c.gif

Going to see a lot more cooling in the subsurface as we go forward.

 

The warmth in 4 is going to diminish and mix out every day. Our oceans are changing very rapidly this year. I believe our seasonal lag is going away and that both of our oceans plus atmosphere are about to find a lockstep in a phase shift. 1st attempt was 2008-2011 before a spike and then 3 year drop. The PAC has been venting massive heat for half a decade to atmosphere, hence the many flooding events and Cali/TX long standing rainshadow.

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Going to see a lot more cooling in the subsurface as we go forward.

 

The warmth in 4 is going to diminish and mix out every day. Our oceans are changing very rapidly this year. I believe our seasonal lag is going away and that both of our oceans plus atmosphere are about to find a lockstep in a phase shift. 1st attempt was 2008-2011 before a spike and then 3 year drop. The PAC has been venting massive heat for half a decade to atmosphere, hence the many flooding events and Cali/TX long standing rainshadow.

My guess is that this year's La Nina is the start of a new PAC trend and the slow decadal flip of the PDO.  By 2024, I do believe we will see a rather significant flip in the ocean SST's across the N PAC.  The "Roaring 20's" have a lot of interesting things setting up in both the wx department and in the world we live in.

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Not that I would put too much into it but the long range guesser at Accuweather Paul Pastelok has somehow came up with the analog years of 1995, 1998, 2003, 2005, 2010 and 2016. For this fall and winter.

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