July 2023 PNW Observations and Discussions

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Might I add the "resource curse" phenomenon too with plenty of these countries. Acidic soil, a lot of disease that's able to spread at higher rates, and also since plenty of these nations are along the warm tropics, they aren't forced to go into technology, diverse trade/commerce, and industry to survive, compared to countries with a massive lack of resources like Britain and Japan. I'm surprised my Philippines isn't highlighted but they did have industrialize heavily over the last few decades. 

Of course this is a huge generalization and there's a multitude of geopolitical factors over the last several centuries that people can write papers on for days, and it's debatable whether if the resource curse is a real thing, but the tropical climates doesn't help.

Oh, the resource curse exists all right. It’s not insurmountable, but it definitely can be a strike against developing. It can easily lead to a tiny entrenched elite holding all the wealth and power, living in luxury while the masses struggle in poverty.

It just goes to show how bad conditions in those blue countries are when places like the Phillipines and India don’t “qualify.”

[Omegaraptor]

18 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I think that's more historical legacy than anything else. Note how it's mostly sub-Saharan Africa that's in blue. South America has no blue countries yet has lots of tropical ones. A lot of Australia is in the tropics, yet Australia is a wealthy first world nation. Singapore (also first world) is almost smack-dab on the equator, and its neighbor Malaysia is just a notch behind.

We may be straying a bit from weather here, although I am definitely kind of a geography nerd and enjoy discussing these topics. It's worth noting that not much of Australia's 25M-ish population is in the tropics. The three largest tropical cities (Townsville, Cairns, and Darwin) only add to about 500k, with a smattering of small towns of which many have a mining-based economy. Brisbane, Sydney, Perth, and Adelaide are subtropical, while Melbourne is outright temperate.

Brazil also sees quite a wealth/development gap between the subtropical south and tropical north.

While Singapore and Malaysia are equatorial they have been blessed with advantageous geography - particularly being at the crossroads between multiple international shipping routes, particularly on the Strait of Malacca, making the area an economic hub of Asia.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Dulles is a UHI hotbox now. Only 4 days below 90°F so far this month (and most of those eeked by with 89°F).

But from an upper level standpoint, this pattern should be average to perhaps slightly cooler than average, which is what my station data reflects. Yet all official observing sites are running positive departures.  

That's one nice thing about DEN. The airport is so far outside the city that there is zero UHI effect. And the departures nearly always match what you'd expect from the pattern.

It's seen one above normal month since last October. Hard to imagine 8 of 9 months running below normal at SEA, PDX, DCA, SLC, PHX, or any of the other UHI-afflicted major city airports now.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, ChristheElohim said:

I wonder why not PLU in South Hill. Pierce Thun Field it's not built up like the other airfields maybe just about same as OLM 

I don't think there's a very long period of record at PLU.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

13 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

 

Some wonderful Joe Bastardi analysis

I like Joe and agree with him on some of his stuff but he’s wrong on this one.

[Front Ranger]

58 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA will not reach 80 tomorrow.   Mid 70s is my guess.

NWS has 81.

HERE WE GO!

[HuskyMaestro]

13 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Oh, the resource curse exists all right. It’s not insurmountable, but it definitely can be a strike against developing. It can easily lead to a tiny entrenched elite holding all the wealth and power, living in luxury while the masses struggle in poverty.

It just goes to show how bad conditions in those blue countries are when places like the Phillipines and India don’t “qualify.”

I've seen my fair share of wild unfortunate stuff in the Philippines, and the climate around Metro Manila is just so suffocating. How that megacity has exploded since I was a kid, always choking under smog and humidity, then combine it with the massive wealth inequality. The area's called the "NCR" (national capital region) but I love to make Fallout jokes because of the toxic smog. Can't imagine how terrible it is in the genuinely worst developed countries. 

 

19 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

We may be straying a bit from weather here, although I am definitely kind of a geography nerd and enjoy discussing these topics. It's worth noting that not much of Australia's 25M-ish population is in the tropics. The three largest tropical cities (Townsville, Cairns, and Darwin) only add to about 500k, with a smattering of small towns of which many have a mining-based economy. Brisbane, Sydney, Perth, and Adelaide are subtropical, while Melbourne is outright temperate.

Brazil also sees quite a wealth/development gap between the subtropical south and tropical north.

While Singapore and Malaysia are equatorial they have been blessed with advantageous geography - particularly being at the crossroads between multiple international shipping routes, particularly on the Strait of Malacca, making the area an economic hub of Asia.

I LOVE geography and geopolitics, and when you add meteorology and climatology into the mix, it becomes one of the most intriguing topics in my opinion that I could get lost in a rabbit hole for days. Like how Mexico's wealth and population has been centered in the milder subtropical high mountains around Mexico City for centuries because the coasts are just too hot and unbearable. Similar to Colombia with its major cities all in the Andes except for Barranquilla. In Egypt, something like 95% of its population is along the Nile. While in India, half that massive population is near the Himalayas where the monsoon just wrings out so much rain and people can grow rice. Just fascinating stuff.

[lowlandsnow]

4 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Just looked it up and it is not generally considered to be a full civilization but a "proto-city".

It did have murals, shrines, public meeting areas, culture, religion, trade with other areas, specialization, obviously tools, and communal ovens. It did lack a written language so maybe it wasn't a full civilization, but it was certainly close. 

[TT-SEA]

19 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

NWS has 81.

HERE WE GO!

Not even a debate.   Tomorrow is a classic underachieving day.  Marine layer is moving in fast.  It's obvious highs are too warm    Saturday and Sunday won't have the same issue.  

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS still shows rain... and 00Z GEM refuses to join the party (at least south of the border).

[Meatyorologist]

I'm going with 74F at KSEA tomorrow.

[TT-SEA]

GEM eventually gets there but not until late Tuesday and into Wednesday... and its not much south of Mt. Vernon.

 

[lowlandsnow]

It's interesting how the warming at the start of the Holocene led to agriculture and the first towns/settlements/cities.

From Wikipedia "During the Younger Dryas period of cold and drought, permanent habitation of any one location was impossible. However, the Ein es-Sultan spring at what would become Jericho was a popular camping ground for Natufian hunter-gatherer groups, who left a scattering of crescent-shaped microlith tools behind them.^[23] Around 9600 BCE, the droughts and cold of the Younger Dryas stadial had come to an end, making it possible for Natufian groups to extend the duration of their stay, eventually leading to year-round habitation and permanent settlement."

"The first permanent settlement on the site of Jericho developed near the Ein es-Sultan spring between 9,500 and 9000 BCE.^[24][25] As the world warmed up, a new culture based on agriculture and sedentary dwelling emerged, which archaeologists have termed "Pre-Pottery Neolithic A" (abbreviated as PPNA)."

Link  Jericho - Wikipedia

[Cold Snap]

Had a high of 85 today. Low of 56 this morning.

[Meatyorologist]

Assuming the GFS is onto something, Monday has a realistic outside shot at staying below 60F. It's happened before this time of year, though it's quite rare.

The record at KSEA for the 24th is 62F in 1955. Would be neato to snatch a record away from that year.

[lowlandsnow]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Assuming the GFS is onto something, Monday has a realistic outside shot at staying below 60F. It's happened before this time of year, though it's quite rare.

The record at KSEA for the 24th is 62F in 1955. Would be neato to a record away from that year.

I think your placing too much trust in the GFS both the GEM and ECMWF aren't even close to a sub 60 degree day.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

That's one nice thing about DEN. The airport is so far outside the city that there is zero UHI effect. And the departures nearly always match what you'd expect from the pattern.

It's seen one above normal month since last October. Hard to imagine 8 of 9 months running below normal at SEA, PDX, DCA, SLC, PHX, or any of the other UHI-afflicted major city airports now.

8 of 9 months below average? I can’t remember that ever happening here.

If any year came close it’s 2014.

[Deweydog]

4cast contest???

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, lowlandsnow said:

I think your placing too much trust in the GFS both the GEM and ECMWF aren't even close to a sub 60 degree day.

Evaporative cooling can do weird things. I've seen it overcome mid June solar radiation and drop temperatures in the afternoon with filtered sunshine.

That being said, in reference to my original post, the term 'outside shot' is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. My gut says somewhere in the vicinity of 67-72F that day, but the element of steady stratoform precipitation does raise some eyebrows at the upper end cooling potential. We may be contending with more than just simply a marine layer.

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

That's one nice thing about DEN. The airport is so far outside the city that there is zero UHI effect. And the departures nearly always match what you'd expect from the pattern.

It's seen one above normal month since last October. Hard to imagine 8 of 9 months running below normal at SEA, PDX, DCA, SLC, PHX, or any of the other UHI-afflicted major city airports now.

SEA just pulled off 5 out of 6 months colder than normal from November - April.

[BLI snowman]

9 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

I think your placing too much trust in the GFS both the GEM and ECMWF aren't even close to a sub 60 degree day.

Yeah, a 70+ outcome on Monday is far more likely than a <60 one at SEA. 

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

That's one nice thing about DEN. The airport is so far outside the city that there is zero UHI effect. And the departures nearly always match what you'd expect from the pattern.

It's seen one above normal month since last October. Hard to imagine 8 of 9 months running below normal at SEA, PDX, DCA, SLC, PHX, or any of the other UHI-afflicted major city airports now.

Oct-Jun 2021-2022 at KSEA. (Using 1991-2020 normals. March definitely squeezes in with the recent decadal update. Otherwise it's 7/9 instead of 8/9)

[Phil]

Can already see strobing from the MCS up north. As constant as paparazzi flashbulbs.

[MossMan]

2 hours ago, ChristheElohim said:

I feel something big is coming between now and 2025. Not just in terms of life with violence, food and water shortages, and many crazy events that's gonna unfold but the sun is gonna do a very huge solar flare exploding that will be life threatening maybe end of matrix/world. The veil is being lifted I think that's the real cause of the extreme weather and heat. 

Notice uptick in UVA, UVB and UVC all over the world even here in WA

A big old CME will take care of that crappy old GFS mega computer once and for all! The European super computer probably has a giant faraday cage around it…Because it’s that good and nothing will destroy it!! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

47 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GFS still shows rain... and 00Z GEM refuses to join the party (at least south of the border).

Noice! Would make for a good drenching IMBY (if it verifies, of course).

[YahRaEl]

47 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Assuming the GFS is onto something, Monday has a realistic outside shot at staying below 60F. It's happened before this time of year, though it's quite rare.

The record at KSEA for the 24th is 62F in 1955. Would be neato to a record away from that year.

What's the all time coolest high temperature from July

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, ChristheElohim said:

What's the all time coolest high temperature from July

54F on 7/2/1966. That year also shares the same record for June exactly one month prior; 51F on 6/2/1966.

[YahRaEl]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

54F on 7/2/1966. That year also shares the same record for June exactly one month prior; 51F on 6/2/1966.

That's outstanding for July!!!.

[Doinko]

1 hour ago, HuskyMaestro said:

I've seen my fair share of wild unfortunate stuff in the Philippines, and the climate around Metro Manila is just so suffocating. How that megacity has exploded since I was a kid, always choking under smog and humidity, then combine it with the massive wealth inequality. The area's called the "NCR" (national capital region) but I love to make Fallout jokes because of the toxic smog. Can't imagine how terrible it is in the genuinely worst developed countries. 

 

I LOVE geography and geopolitics, and when you add meteorology and climatology into the mix, it becomes one of the most intriguing topics in my opinion that I could get lost in a rabbit hole for days. Like how Mexico's wealth and population has been centered in the milder subtropical high mountains around Mexico City for centuries because the coasts are just too hot and unbearable. Similar to Colombia with its major cities all in the Andes except for Barranquilla. In Egypt, something like 95% of its population is along the Nile. While in India, half that massive population is near the Himalayas where the monsoon just wrings out so much rain and people can grow rice. Just fascinating stuff.

The different climates in India are really interesting. Chennai is one of the biggest cities in the south on the east coast, and the heat there is extremely oppressive at times (when we generally visit around this time), heat indexes were regularly getting above 110 last time I went, though it would rain pretty frequently with some impressive thunderstorms at times. However another big city in the south, Bangalore, is higher in elevation and drier and was pretty comfortable, with some thunderstorms too.

Towards the western part of the south, you cross the Western Ghats mountains (which is one of the wettest places on earth) which are extremely green and really nice. When we were in the city of Udupi on the west coast in the south in July, every day would include torrential downpours flooding the streets completely. They average over 160" of rain in the year (53" in July alone).
 

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, ChristheElohim said:

That's outstanding for July!!!.

August's record is even more wild. 54F on 8/2/1956 (something about the second of each month in JJA is a magnet for cold highs at KSEA...)

That is even more impressive considering it occurred in the heart of the warm season when averages are statistically speaking at their annual peak.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Sounds like some record cold coming up!?!?

Anyway, back here in reality, it was another very warm day. 86/60 spread.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Got rejected for a job for the 26th straight time. I don't think I'm ever going to be able to support myself let alone my family.

I can't ride the bus because the nearest stop is several blocks away and I could have a seizure and miss my stop so I am applying for remote stuff. Service jobs are too high-stress and cause even worse epileptic episodes that last even longer.

I just want to be able to support the ones I love and show someone that I value a position. Haven't ever truly had that feeling.

[YahRaEl]

15 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Got rejected for a job for the 26th straight time. I don't think I'm ever going to be able to support myself let alone my family.

I can't ride the bus because the nearest stop is several blocks away and I could have a seizure and miss my stop so I am applying for remote stuff. Service jobs are too high-stress and cause even worse epileptic episodes that last even longer.

I just want to be able to support the ones I love and show someone that I value a position. Haven't ever truly had that feeling.

If my anxiety gets bad I get seizures I f****** hate them, very sorry you have to suffer from that and it's taking away your abilities to support for family I'm in the same boat don't even remember last time I tried to work I get SSI but it's just not enough especially when both married couples have it. May we fight thru our conditions!!!.

I once had a seizure from my anxiety and my heart rate was so up the doctor thought I was gonna die and my heart explode, now I take propranolol which helps for seizures, anxiety and heart.

 

[TT-SEA]

7 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Assuming the GFS is onto something, Monday has a realistic outside shot at staying below 60F. It's happened before this time of year, though it's quite rare.

The record at KSEA for the 24th is 62F in 1955. Would be neato to a record away from that year.

06Z ECMWF shows 77 on Monday... but temps are falling in the afternoon as the front moves inland its down to 68 by 5 p.m.   Seems like it comes down to timing.   

Low clouds are just rolling in here now.   When the low clouds are moving inland in the morning an underachieving day is all but guaranteed.   This might be a day when it's still in the 60s at 1 p.m. at SEA but ends up in the low 70s.   Zero chance of 80 today.

[TT-SEA]

Weak troughing lingers all of next week on all of the models now... including the EPS.  Phil is locked in for cooler than normal weather for his trip... even if it ends up fairly sunny.

[Meatyorologist]

7 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Sounds like some record cold coming up!?!?

Anyway, back here in reality, it was another very warm day. 86/60 spread.

44 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

06Z ECMWF shows 77 on Monday... but temps are falling in the afternoon as the front moves inland its down to 68 by 5 p.m.   Seems like it comes down to timing.   

Low clouds are just rolling in here now.   When the low clouds are moving inland in the morning an underachieving day is all but guaranteed.   This might be a day when it's still in the 60s at 1 p.m. at SEA but ends up in the low 70s.   Zero chance of 80 today.

Y'all are reading way too much into what I said. Maybe I wasn't clear... I was referring to upper end potential. Not what I actually think.

And the advancement in timing definitely screws things up. Previous runs teased at a daytime frontal passage.

[Meatyorologist]

22 years on planet Earth. Been a weird time.

[TT-SEA]

37 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

22 years on planet Earth. Been a weird time.

Are you fishing for birthday wishes?  

Happy Birthday! 

[T-Town]

49 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

22 years on planet Earth. Been a weird time.

Happy birthday.  I turned 61 last week. People say it goes by fast - can confirm. Try to focus on the good things and enjoy the ride. 

[T-Town]

Cloudy and 57 here this morning with a very light mist.