August 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Phishy Wx]

22 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Possibility Hilary could even reach category 5.

 

RI can be crazy explosive.  usually something you'd see in the GoM or Carribean.

[TT-SEA]

[Snownerd3000]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We avoided the smoke during the ridging period... but it appears that the break down of the ridge is going to result in the west side being inundated with low level smoke.    The Canadian smoke model shows it pouring in from the NE on Saturday.  

[TacomaWx]

80 at home -1F from yesterday when we got to 93. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 hour ago, Cold Snap said:

I had three lows that were below 50 in July and I even got down to 49 on the 1st of this month.

I had multiple lows in the 30s in June. Last frost was June 20th

[Gradient Keeper]

Temperature round-up / 24hr Temp Change

8/17/23 11:45 AM

The extensive cloud cover + onshore flow increasing a bit = some relief as seen with the negative temperature departures below. There is more humidity with the monsoonal moisture over us, but at least we won't be in the 100s, and might not even reach 90 today. Maybe.

 

- 11 AM

[Oregon Coast]
Astoria: 65, -6
Tillamook: 66, -7
Newport: 63, -- no change
Florence: 64, +1
North Bend: 66, -1
Brookings: 65, -13

 

[PDX-Vancouver Metro, Southwest Washington, Northern Willamette Valley]
Portland: 77, -7
Troutdale: 78, -9
Vancouver: 75, -7
Kelso: 78, -7
Scappoose: 80, -4
Hillsboro: 80, -6
McMinnville: 82, -4
Aurora: 78, -8

 

[Central/Southern Willamette Valley, Southern Oregon]
Salem: 83, -5
Corvallis: 80, -4
Eugene: 82, -2
Roseburg: 82, -4
Grants Pass: 86, -- no change
Medford: 83, -4
Klamath Falls: 74, -9

[Rubus Leucodermis]

27 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We avoided the smoke during the ridging period... but it appears that the break down of the ridge is going to result in the west side being inundated with low level smoke.    The Canadian smoke model shows it pouring in from the NE on Saturday.  

Where is the vomit react when I really need it?

Thankfully, seems to be in the 5–10 µg/m³ range in my area, not too bad.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, LowerGarfield said:

Not too smokey here compared to places like Spokane. Warm and sunny now. I love the nautical blue skin for the forum now if only they could fix the reactions.

I like it, too.

Reactions, though...meh. Social media culture. 

[Phil]

They should rename this place TimTown. 850s are -1 on the 12z JAX sounding but it feels like 110°F anyway.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Hilary is really organizing nicely. Perhaps a RI Rapid Intensification stage soon.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Would you trade a dud winter for next summer being in line with the 1961-1990 averages? 

Would be bad for the forum. Tough choices.

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z Euro is just laughably bad in light of how this month has already played out. Over half the days are in the 90s for Portland on this run. It’s pretty mind boggling to think about where the final numbers could end up for August ‘23 compared to long term averages and climo for this region. Really nothing else even close to it. Almost as anomalous as the June 2021 heatwave but in terms of monthly anomaly rather than stand alone daily departures.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

09-10

I wish but doubt it.

97/98, 91/92, 82/83, 65/66, 57/58

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z Euro is just laughably bad in light of how this month has already played out. Over half the days are in the 90s for Portland on this run. It’s pretty mind boggling to think about where the final numbers could end up for August ‘23 compared to long term averages and climo for this region. Really nothing else even close to it. Almost as anomalous as the June 2021 heatwave but in terms of monthly anomaly rather than stand alone daily departures.

Yeah I'm not a fan of the models trending warmer. One day closer to Fall and Winter! C'MON!!!!

[Phishy Wx]

43 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

lol,  yup.

 

BOOK IT

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

I wish but doubt it.

97/98, 91/92, 82/83, 65/66, 57/58

IMO, you need some anal logs from this millenium in this day and age 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

44 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

RI can be crazy explosive.  usually something you'd see in the GoM or Carribean.

Up to category 2 now. She’s gonna be a beast!

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

84F and humid this morning. Really hope the low-level smoke doesn't come back.

My leg really hurts from being in the fencing position on my side all night. Fuckking sucks.

I just want this heat to end and it feels like there's no relief in sight. More 90F burgers on the way.

I also fully expect a dud this winter. This area already does badly enough in a lot of winters (had back to back duds in 2019-2020 and 2020-2021) so it'll be interesting to see if we can start some type of Feb 1996-Nov 2003 type stretch again beginning with this coming one. Tho last winter did barely anything also too, we at least had the nice Dec 2021 snow shower fun. The Boxing Day snow event that winter was quite memorable.

[TacomaWx]

14 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z Euro is just laughably bad in light of how this month has already played out. Over half the days are in the 90s for Portland on this run. It’s pretty mind boggling to think about where the final numbers could end up for August ‘23 compared to long term averages and climo for this region. Really nothing else even close to it. Almost as anomalous as the June 2021 heatwave but in terms of monthly anomaly rather than stand alone daily departures.

I hadn’t been paying as much attention as I normally do to some weather stuff…but I realized how high the positive anomaly temp was for my location. After today we should be +5.3F roughly and maybe hit 90 this afternoon. Theres a shot this month ends up even more anomalous than July 2015 which is the top dog IMBY. We will see though still 2 weeks left. Either way just a hot scorcher month. 

[Front Ranger]

20 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z Euro is just laughably bad in light of how this month has already played out. Over half the days are in the 90s for Portland on this run. It’s pretty mind boggling to think about where the final numbers could end up for August ‘23 compared to long term averages and climo for this region. Really nothing else even close to it. Almost as anomalous as the June 2021 heatwave but in terms of monthly anomaly rather than stand alone daily departures.

Hopefully the hurricane is messing with it. Models have been very inconsistent past day 4.

[Gradient Keeper]

4 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

A high of 115 is probably easier to achieve than a high of 15 at PDX now

Yes, and I would have believed that even 20-30 years ago.

00z GFS in 8 hours 4 minutes

[Phil]

20 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

IMO, you need some anal logs from this millenium in this day and age 

I wish there were any. Haven’t seen an El Niño develop in this manner in ~ 50 years. 1997/98 is the most recent analog that comes anywhere close to representing the base state.

As of now I expect this will be one of the warmest winters in US history. Perhaps not to 1878 levels but pretty gnarly, especially for the Midwest/N-Plains and NW US.

Good news is we can still get heavy snows in such a pattern with any phasing or delayed occlusion. But it ain’t gonna be a cold winter anywhere except maybe the gulf coast. Doubt there will be any bonafide arctic air in W-Canada this winter.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Hopefully the hurricane is messing with it. Models have been very inconsistent past day 4.

FWIW... the EPS and control run look basically identical to the operational run through day 10.    Won't be extremely hot like it has been but likely we will be warmer than normal.  

[YahRaEl]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

I wish there were any. Haven’t seen an El Niño develop in this manner in ~ 50 years. 1997/98 is the most recent analog that comes anywhere close to representing the base state.

As of now I expect this will be one of the warmest winters in US history. Perhaps not to 1878 levels but pretty gnarly, especially for the Midwest/N-Plains and NW US.

Good news is we can still get heavy snows in such a pattern with any phasing or delayed occlusion. But it ain’t gonna be a cold winter anywhere except maybe the gulf coast. Doubt there will be any bonafide arctic air in W-Canada this winter.

Are you still thinking a cool wet September and October?

[YahRaEl]

82-85° here at Eastside Tacoma high level clouds and filtered sun, a little muggy. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Hopefully the hurricane is messing with it. Models have been very inconsistent past day 4.

The main inconsistency has been to overpromise cooler, troughier weather in the mid to long range only to have it morph into more record breaking warmth as the time frame approaches.

[Phil]

East-based niño. Low pass will bring about phase 7/8/1 VP200 structure. Maturing -QBO should help prevent the PV from strengthening excessively modest but persistent W1 forcing, but need something anomalous to happen on the intraseasonal scale (like W2 response via Eurasia/scand ridge breaking at precisely the right time) for anything interesting in the cold weather department.

Worst case it’s an entire winter of Pineapple Express with all arctic air blasted into Eurasia. Worst case for both cold/snow lovers and our resident north bend heat miser.

[NWbyNW]

This is hot weather for Everett the past several days. We are -2F degrees the same time as yesterday. The forecasted high temp has also dropped -1F from yesterday.

 

 

Curious about the temps from the high mountain top bunker of @TT-SEA! Lol! What's the difference today? 

[T-Town]

80 degrees here. -6 from yesterday. Which is nice. 

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, ChristheElohim said:

Are you still thinking a cool wet September and October?

September yes, October maybe?

But unless we pull off some perfectly timed wave break in Eurasia during switch from positive to negative EAMT & well structured RWT thru the NPAC, that pacific jet is going to blast away any and all arctic air to far away places.

Not trying to be hyperbolic about this fwiw. Have finally had time to dig a little deeper now that I’m on vacation…all I can say is: cringe.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

32 minutes ago, Phil said:

I wish but doubt it.

97/98, 91/92, 82/83, 65/66, 57/58

Did you just look up our 5 worst winters? Just kidding, but barely. 65-66 was decent I think. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

34 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z Euro is just laughably bad in light of how this month has already played out. Over half the days are in the 90s for Portland on this run. It’s pretty mind boggling to think about where the final numbers could end up for August ‘23 compared to long term averages and climo for this region. Really nothing else even close to it. Almost as anomalous as the June 2021 heatwave but in terms of monthly anomaly rather than stand alone daily departures.

I was talking to @IbrChris last summer and he was saying he thought the Willamette Valley would have average highs around 90 in July/August by 2050 and hit 110 every few years, though he felt like events like June 2021 would still be uncommon. I pushed back at the time, but after how last summer and this one turned out... I probably wouldn't now. 

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Curious about the temps from the high mountain top bunker of @TT-SEA! Lol! What's the difference today? 

Even the Everett airport is much warmer than your location at 81.   

Currently 89 in North Bend and 88 here... seems quite a bit more comfortable out there today.  

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

80.4°F. About even with yesterday at this time.

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Did you just look up our 5 worst winters? Just kidding, but barely. 65-66 was decent I think. 

Only tropical and upper atmospheric data so far. Is it that bad?

[YahRaEl]

I wouldn't mind 1972-73 or 1951-52. Would be awesome to see 68-69 especially for snow!!!

[Phishy Wx]

oof breeze picked up to 13mph. 94, smoke may be holding temps down a little.

 

days like this I sit in the dark, ceiling fan and AC blasting.  blinds closed.  only light in the house is my laptop screen

 

hoping we can make thru today without any new local fires

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Only tropical and upper atmospheric data so far. Is it that bad?

I'm teasing you homie, but 91/92 and 57/58 are all-time duds. 65-66 would be pretty solid by modern standards. 1982-83 was not good. 1997-98 wasn't good either, but PDX and I think Seattle had a good snow event. 

[the_convergence_zone]

I'm having trouble conceptualizing how much of a weather disaster Hilary is going be as opposed to bringing beneficial rain. I've been to Palm Springs and I know they have infrastructure to deal with localized flash flooding, but I wonder what capacity it has to deal with a rain event like this. In the winter much of the high-elevation precipitation would be captured as snow and the usual summer monsoon convection is heavy but short-lived. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, ChristheElohim said:

I wouldn't mind 1972-73 or 1951-52

Looks like if we can keep it in the moderate range we might be in good shape.