2023 - 2024 Autumn & Winter Discussions

[Black Hole]

20 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

This right here. Beautiful. Been waiting on this. I'm good with being warm for a bit. I'm still betting on cold. 

This is not a classic, canonical strong Niño. I just don't see it going the 1983 or 1997 route.

 

11 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

If the Euro depicted in this article verifies, going to be winter here in November. 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2023-2024-seasonal-models-snowfall-predictions-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

It's showing above avg snowfall for every month Nov-Jan. 

 

Definitely think its unlikely we go the super nino route. Besides the different modeled progression, the pattern this summer has felt distinctly different from those years. That also showed up in the pattern analog years I posted where my number one match was 09/10. 

 

In that article you shared the UKMET wasn't so good, but it was nice to see the above normal snowfall every month on the ECMWF. I'm curious how many inches it actually showed now

[gimmesnow]

15 hours ago, mlgamer said:

I thought this image was a meme when I first saw it. Is this for real? 

 

That's what they're running with. I'm with you too, pretty bold to say 80% of the CONUS is going to be cold and snowy. But that's what they're claiming. They have more detailed forecasts if you go down the page. But they are all in on cold and snowy.

https://www.almanac.com/winter-extended-forecast-farmers-almanac

 

[mlgamer]

1 hour ago, gimmesnow said:

That's what they're running with. I'm with you too, pretty bold to say 80% of the CONUS is going to be cold and snowy. But that's what they're claiming. They have more detailed forecasts if you go down the page. But they are all in on cold and snowy.

https://www.almanac.com/winter-extended-forecast-farmers-almanac

 

If that verifies I will be impressed for sure...lol. Stranger things have happened so who knows...

[OKwx2k4]

Just on the number of "once in a hundred years" events this year, sky's the limit on winter and I really mean that. 

As @Black Hole mentioned, 2009 and 1976 are probably my top analogs as well. We're simply slightly later than 2009 in progression. 

Add in 1980-81, 2000-01 and 2010-11 (Part anti-logs, part for exiting deep Niña and just actual verified weather) for background state and other variables around the globe, and you have every ingredient to produce long-lasting cold that is really hard to budge. 

[OKwx2k4]

10 hours ago, Black Hole said:

 

 

Definitely think its unlikely we go the super nino route. Besides the different modeled progression, the pattern this summer has felt distinctly different from those years. That also showed up in the pattern analog years I posted where my number one match was 09/10. 

 

In that article you shared the UKMET wasn't so good, but it was nice to see the above normal snowfall every month on the ECMWF. I'm curious how many inches it actually showed now

Yeah, the UKMET was absolutely a sad winter. About like looking at NMME or CFSV2. Lol. 

I've never saw the Euro show above average snowfall here starting in November. I know outside of this warm cycle we are in, it snowed here November through April more often than not until the hemispheric climate shift in the late 70s.

That era will return. I have no doubts now after looking at the SO. Hemisphere temp alignments shifting. They've been cold for 40 years. 

Flip time.

[Black Hole]

13 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Yeah, the UKMET was absolutely a sad winter. About like looking at NMME or CFSV2. Lol. 

I've never saw the Euro show above average snowfall here starting in November. I know outside of this warm cycle we are in, it snowed here November through April more often than not until the hemispheric climate shift in the late 70s.

That era will return. I have no doubts now after looking at the SO. Hemisphere temp alignments shifting. They've been cold for 40 years. 

Flip time.

I'd be curious to hear more about what you are looking at for the southern hemisphere flipping. I wasn't even aware they had been running cold for so long. Interesting stuff. 

[Black Hole]

The ECMWF seasonal came in this morning for its September run. Here are some GIFs for that.

SSTAs:

Height anomalies:

Temperature:

Precip:

 

This looks very classical Modoki as the warm pool migrates west. It's similar to last months run too. Anyway, we see two different winters here. The first half we see a good subtropical jet across the country but anchored in the west giving the western US and possibly northern Plains its best bet of some snow chances. By the second half of winter split flow builds along the west coast and they warm/dry out while us in the southeastern quadrant of the country get our best winter chance. It's nice to see every month showing near to below normal temps after September. 

For my area locally I'd add that the first half of winter could also be pretty wet with a drier (though colder) 2nd half. Lastly, here is the January maps together.

 

 

[jaster220]

On 9/2/2023 at 9:03 AM, Clinton said:

Some thoughts and analogs from T-Swails on El Nino and the good ole Farmers Almanac once again predicting a return to the ice age for about 80 percent of the country lol.

Well, as much as I would love to see a big snowy winter around here, I am far from convinced that will be the case. The primary reason is that El Nino is coming on hard and that typically means a split flow with the polar jet to the north keeping much of the cold bottled up to the north. The sub tropical jet with all the storminess is active but often produces the wettest weather to the south and east of the Midwest. We can get some heavy precipitation events from time to time but the trick is getting enough cold air in place to see snow instead of rain. That involves some phasing of the two storm tracks and as I mentioned that's not easy to do with the split flow that commonly results.

 

 

I did check the latest trends from NCEP and they indicate a 95% chance of El Nino conditions through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2023-24.

 

 

Not only that, during its peak November-January, the El Nino is expected to be strong with Nino 3.4 anomalies at or greater than 1.5 degrees C.

 

 

The only way I see this winter coming remotely close to what the Farmer's Almanac shows is if we get the strongest sea surface anomalies to position themselves in 3.4, (over the central Pacific away from the coast of South America).

 

 

That sort of set-up (known as a Modoki El Nino), would allow some cold air intrusions and the phasing mentioned above for snow systems. How that evolves is anybody's guess At least for now, the warmest SST departures are closer to the coast of South America which portends a relatively mild winter.

 

 

As I mentioned, the prognosis is for the El Nino to be strong during the winter months. The NWS in La Crosse, Wisconsin has done extensive research on temperature, precipitation, and snowfall patterns around the Midwest during strong enso events such as this since 1900. The verdict was that winter temperatures averaged near to above normal. 4 of Iowa's warmest winters occurred during strong El Ninos.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

While there is a strong signal for warmth during strong El Ninos, precipitation can be highly variable across the region. Iowa saw their 2nd driest winter (1.28" in 1930-31), along with their 10th wettest winter (4.79" in 1972-73).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

While seasonal snowfall tends to average below normal in the Midwest during strong El Niños, at least a third of them have produced above normal snowfall.

 

 

Something else I've noticed is that late October and November can be cold and usually have above normal snowfall. However, by Christmas the El Nino has kicked in resulting in warmer than average temperatures thereafter. I look for some version of that this year.

It's still early and there are other factors to consider so I'm still a bit on the fence regarding the final outcome, but my hunch is that this winter ends up warmer than normal with precipitation being the wild card. Traditionally, the sub-tropical jet and its storm track is displaced far enough south to keep the heavier precipitation from reaching the Midwest. That would lead to below normal amounts and most likely below normal snowfall.

There is a caveat though and that is climate change and warm sea surface temperatures throughout the globe that have increased water vapor. The analogs of 10-30 years ago aren't as reliable as they used to be. There are more extremes and the puzzle is more complex. For example, last winter the strong La Nina would argue for dry winter over the southwest. Instead, it was one of the wettest with flooding rains and record snow in the mountains of California. The overall winter defied long standing expectations there. Who's to say that couldn't happen this year over the Midwest. I'm not expecting it but I've seen some crazy unlikely weather events the past 5 years. As the saying goes, time will tell.

Meanwhile, here's what the Farmer's Almanac had for last winter. It was about as far off the mark as could be expected except in the NW and NC U.S. where North Dakota, Minnesota, and northern Wisconsin took it on the chin with both cold and snow.

 

 

Comments: Nice article, thx for posting. They have 72-73 in the map/list for for both types of Nino's?? I think it was a traditional but could be mistaken. The precipitation map for 82-83 looks like a copy-n-paste of the 72-73 map. Wonder which year that really represents?? Wow at 25-26! Such an upside down result for a strong Nino. It's the only one that really gave Detroit region an AN snowfall season (on AN temps no less). Modoki's have not been treating SMI that favorably so my stance remains that I have no real horse to bet on this winter. Likely be my 3rd straight BN snowfall season unless we get another version of the 25-26 wildcard. 

[OKwx2k4]

On 9/5/2023 at 7:53 AM, Black Hole said:

I'd be curious to hear more about what you are looking at for the southern hemisphere flipping. I wasn't even aware they had been running cold for so long. Interesting stuff. 

It's not made public knowledge very often because its not really popular (like the growing mid-latitude glaciers, etc), but, yeah. Up until recent years (record max 2014; 2 seasons off the Arctic's record low) the ice in the SO. Hemisphere has grown steadily for 40 years. 

It's like so many other climate scare holes in the science they don't have answers for and never predicted.

This season they recorded a record ice loss, while over the last 10 years ice loss in the Arctic has stabilised and our Hemisphere is nowhere near a chance of recording a 40 year record low at minimum. 

Here's an article from 2019 that talks on it a bit. 

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1906556116

[Tom]

I love what I'm seeing off the latest JMA weeklies as they are mirroring the CFSv2 weeklies pointing towards a trough into the Baja/4 corners/So Cal to close out SEP and open OCT.  As @hawkstwelvepointed out in our SEP thread, it has been bone dry over much of the ag belt region and we certainly need to start seeing the moisture.  Well, it appears there is more optimistic data suggesting a reversal in the precip pattern during the 2nd half of SEP and into the early stages of the LRC.  I'm pretty confident that the southern jet will start to come alive and early Snows will target the 4 corners region.  We are already seeing evidence from nature that Winter has come a bit early this season for the mountains in the west.  

Week 2...look at that beauty of a 500mb pattern...wet signal is a solid look for the central CONUS...

 

Courtesy of @hawkstwelve...

 

Week 2 AN precip pattern is literally right on top of the dry areas....

 

Week 3-4....

 

The AN precip signal continues over the same areas.  It's like nature "flipped the script"...

 

 

 

The CFSv2 is lock step similar to JMA...Block over the Top of an active #STJ...Ya'll ready???

 

[Madtown]

Obviously long range is not an exact science and many times doesn't do what it supposed to. All I've been hearing is El nino....If we take off our snow loving glasses, is it possible this winter is a massive bust, or are there enough other factors that may make it ok. Just hard to get excited for winter with El Nino in the cards.

[mlgamer]

I'd settle for rain all winter with no snow if that's what it would take to get some moisture here. The cracks in the ground around the area are among the biggest I've ever seen. Soil has been pulling away from foundations, sidewalks, and driveways all summer so it's been lots of watering. Most yards are pretty much brown except for those being watered. Hope a change comes soon.

[Niko]

Not sure of what to think of about this upcoming winter. I do know that in an El Nino pattern, the EC does very good w heavy snows (w potential blizzards). We will see what happens, but I fear it might be a frigid, dry winter for the lower lakes. Time will tell.

[jaster220]

8 hours ago, Niko said:

Not sure of what to think of about this upcoming winter. I do know that in an El Nino pattern, the EC does very good w heavy snows (w potential blizzards). We will see what happens, but I fear it might be a frigid, dry winter for the lower lakes. Time will tell.

Hey Niko! 

Hope your summer has been good. Not too hot was it? With the Nino, you should have a horse in the race whether it's on the EC, here (who knows?), or both like 09-10. 

[jaster220]

On 9/8/2023 at 1:12 PM, mlgamer said:

I'd settle for rain all winter with no snow if that's what it would take to get some moisture here. The cracks in the ground around the area are among the biggest I've ever seen. Soil has been pulling away from foundations, sidewalks, and driveways all summer so it's been lots of watering. Most yards are pretty much brown except for those being watered. Hope a change comes soon.

Opposite here. You could not find a patch of brown anything, even if it was worth a $1M to your bank account. It's the greenest summer (since the spring dry period) that I can remember. And I get around my state a lot. Not a single region have I seen a noticeable dry look. There may be some that I've just missed ofc but overall this has been a "green summer". 

[Niko]

15 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Hey Niko! 

Hope your summer has been good. Not too hot was it? With the Nino, you should have a horse in the race whether it's on the EC, here (who knows?), or both like 09-10. 

Hey Jaster.....it was great, hope yrs was as well.

Here are some pics for ya, enjoy:

Description of pics 1-7

1.) Name of Beach called "Batsi"

2.) Delicious brunch right after a swim (temps hovering in the low 100s at the time)

3.) My Greek coffee (relaxing part of the day)

4.) Taking the ferry to go from Athens (also known as "Rafina Port"  where all boats dock) to Andros Island. Trip is 1.5hrs.

5.) View from my house.

6.) More phenomenal food in the shade after being on the beach most of the day.

7.) Greek church named after my name..Saint Nicholas.

 

I also went to Los Angeles in June prior to leaving for Greece to celebrate my nieces graduation from UCLA. Now she is in Berkley's Law School in San Fransisco. We have a big dog lawyer on the way in 3 years. Oh yeah, she will be my lawyer for sure  

I also made a stop in NYC on the way to Greece and stayed there for 3 days and then left from JFK.

 

 

 

 

 

[Andie]

On 9/8/2023 at 12:12 PM, mlgamer said:

I'd settle for rain all winter with no snow if that's what it would take to get some moisture here. The cracks in the ground around the area are among the biggest I've ever seen. Soil has been pulling away from foundations, sidewalks, and driveways all summer so it's been lots of watering. Most yards are pretty much brown except for those being watered. Hope a change comes soon.

I’m feeling bad for our Kansas and Midwest brothers.  This has been brutal on residents and farmers have endured a tragic season. 
I’m hoping the Niño will bring the moisture we need this Fall so that when it freezes it doesn’t dry kill half the country.  

[Clinton]

Gotta take it with a grain of salt but the 12z GFS is darn chilly toward the end of the run.  Flakes for @Madtown maybe and mid 40s for lows all the way down to KC. Strong taste of fall possibly for much of the forum. 

[jaster220]

Why not?

[OKwx2k4]

On 9/8/2023 at 9:47 AM, Madtown said:

Obviously long range is not an exact science and many times doesn't do what it supposed to. All I've been hearing is El nino....If we take off our snow loving glasses, is it possible this winter is a massive bust, or are there enough other factors that may make it ok. Just hard to get excited for winter with El Nino in the cards.

This is a non-canonical, non- major Niño. It's evolution to west based is underway and its decline has begun. 

Most typical standard El Niño forecasts are based on 2 events. 1997-98 and 2015-16. This is none of that.

Typical Major Niño events peak in January, we get flooded with Pacific air til March and suffer through a cold spring. 

This event peaking 1.3c in Sept/Oct is going to radically shift that progression forward.

I love snow, but wrong is wrong and right is still right. I've pretty well held my forecast since spring and called out my own flaws, so I'd believe that my biases are all in check.

You won't hear me forecast a "record winter", just the same as it was impossible to call the extremes we have witnessed this summer. I will say that in the southern and Eastern 2/3 of the country, we should see above average snow.

[Black Hole]

Thinking some more about our seasonal progression tonight. What else are you supposed to do when there is no weather and its 4am?

At any rate, here is what we saw for the first 10 days of the month:

Here is the pattern right now, lets call it the middle third of the month:

And here is the mid range pattern to close out September:  The final monthly map based on this forecast will probably keep the same general anomaly pattern as the first 10 days, with the exception that a lot of the Great Basin and southern Plains will either end up near neutral or slightly negative. I think this progression is still mostly in line with the analog forecast I dropped previously...at least enough to be useful anyway. 

Since we've previously talked about 09/10 as a top analog. Let's review what happened that year. Here is the Sep/Oct progression:

While some obvious differences are still noted, especially for the Great Basin, I still think this is a pretty good match. Getting back to our forecasted outlook and the tendency for troughing to emerge in the home stretch, I think we are seeing early el nino signs and perhaps a preview of the storm track this winter through the southern plains. It's still early, but things are changing! 

 

[OKwx2k4]

@Black Holedid a great job there. 

A blended and delayed 2009 is still my top analog and i'll be honest, I'm nervous at what that entails seeing as I absolutely know this progression to close September is a new pattern. It looks like an '09 and 2013 mashup if I had to do it from memory.

If 2013 would have had any at all imput from an energised southern branch or any real "phasers" at all, it would have made a very great winter into a legendary one. 

I want to add another factor that leads me to cold conclusions over warm and that is our retrogression coupled with the setup rolling through the Bering Sea along with the tri-pole of warm piols in perfect places up there. This tells me that the endless dumps of cool dry air into the Central Pacific are shutting down (responsible for Hawaii's drought). In fact, checking models right now, shows it. 

When that's closed off and you see low after low after low literally slamming the Aleutians, you can bet something impressive is on its way. 

[Tom]

I just saw the new JMA seasonal and its rather interesting....I'll try to post on it tomorrow morning...#STJ all the way!  The West Coast/SW trough is locked and loaded...high lat blocking is magnificent in OCT/NOV....then in DEC the NE PAC ridge fires up.  Not to mention, the warm pool shifts west each month and by DEC its near or west of ENSO 3.4.

[gimmesnow]

Wow another winter of all the snow going south to Chicago. Please don't verify. I was in a snow drought belt in between Chicago and Madison last year and it SUCKED HARD. Never rode my snowmobile ONCE.

[Tom]

Just thought I'd share with you the DEC maps...Split Flow all day!  In a perfect world, you'd like to see more blocking near Greenland but that ain't a bad first "look" into DEC.  I'll tell ya, its a hellova lot different than the past 3 or 4 years with massive SER's???  You can sorta see the model hinting at a NW Flow aloft funneling in cold air out of Canada.

 

 

 

 

Precip...

 

Lastly, the SST's...

[OKwx2k4]

A good look at today's enso probabilities. I like how it reflects the thoughts of an earlier peak (per ideas of Tom, Black Hole and myself) as well with what could be a target of November as max. 

Whether we cross and stay at the +1.5°C in 3.4 will just have to play out and see. 

 

 

 

[jaster220]

8 hours ago, gimmesnow said:

Wow another winter of all the snow going south to Chicago. Please don't verify. I was in a snow drought belt in between Chicago and Madison last year and it SUCKED HARD. Never rode my snowmobile ONCE.

His vid, and especially that map mean NOTHING. Just have to wait it out IMO. What struck me in his vid the most was the set of Temp Anomaly maps for the various Nino's. All over the place really, but to be more correct he should have limited them to type/intensity similar to what is expected this coming winter. A few Nino's (even on the stronger side) have surprised Michigan with decent snow/storms. I'm very hesitant to sign onto any one solution at this point. 

[Niko]

On 9/13/2023 at 9:36 PM, jaster220 said:

Why not?

Good lord..look at what they think might happen on the EC. Storm explosions!!! Someone there in the big cities this winter will get walloped. This might be their winter. Time will tell.

[jaster220]

On 9/16/2023 at 9:16 AM, Niko said:

Good lord..look at what they think might happen on the EC. Storm explosions!!! Someone there in the big cities this winter will get walloped. This might be their winter. Time will tell.

Yep, I think you are golden this winter whether your old back yard in NYC gets slammed or we somehow end up with an atypical Nino winter and get in on the action as well. 

[Niko]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Yep, I think you are golden this winter whether your old back yard in NYC gets slammed or we somehow end up with an atypical Nino winter and get in on the action as well. 

I can see SMI get in on the action as well. A big Dog or 2+ is definitely not outta the question. Jet stream this winter will be just south of us, which its the best solution for SMI peeps to get into hvy snows and will also be further south at times, which will benefit the EC. Not too many NW flows are looking likely. It gets very cold here and perhaps very snowy (typical Nino year) by February and into March.

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, Niko said:

I can see SMI get in on the action as well. A big Dog or 2+ is definitely not outta the question. Jet stream this winter will be just south of us, which its the best solution for SMI peeps to get into hvy snows and will also be further south at times, which will benefit the EC. Not too many NW flows are looking likely. It gets very cold here and perhaps very snowy (typical Nino year) by February and into March.

As long as it's not a strong Nino, which keeps the Arctic air bottled-up north and east, where storms riding the STJ can turn up the EC and pull it down east of the App's. Moderate Nino plus some favorable tele's could work for SEMI, as well as a weak Nino tho I don't think that's in the cards attm tbh.

[Anti Marine Layer]

On 9/14/2023 at 2:09 AM, Black Hole said:

Thinking some more about our seasonal progression tonight. What else are you supposed to do when there is no weather and its 4am?

At any rate, here is what we saw for the first 10 days of the month:

Here is the pattern right now, lets call it the middle third of the month:

And here is the mid range pattern to close out September:  The final monthly map based on this forecast will probably keep the same general anomaly pattern as the first 10 days, with the exception that a lot of the Great Basin and southern Plains will either end up near neutral or slightly negative. I think this progression is still mostly in line with the analog forecast I dropped previously...at least enough to be useful anyway. 

Since we've previously talked about 09/10 as a top analog. Let's review what happened that year. Here is the Sep/Oct progression:

While some obvious differences are still noted, especially for the Great Basin, I still think this is a pretty good match. Getting back to our forecasted outlook and the tendency for troughing to emerge in the home stretch, I think we are seeing early el nino signs and perhaps a preview of the storm track this winter through the southern plains. It's still early, but things are changing! 

 

More torching for Canada. 

[OKwx2k4]

With the AO going flat neutral for a time, will be a great 2 weeks to see the other factors influence our atmosphere and also observe the seasonal pattern progression. 

Really, as some said already, watching the west coast, enso and Bering Sea weather progressions. 

Would love to see a southern branch develop as we go forward.

[Andie]

Tonight a geomagnetic storm could provide auroras for our far north members   

https://www.foxweather.com/earth-space/solar-activity-moon-auroras-geomagnetic-storm

[Madtown]

From earlier...still dancing getting a bit better actually

[Clinton]

Euro showing a modoki Nino.  January through March looks promising. 

Cold to close out October. 

[Tom]

9 hours ago, Clinton said:

Euro showing a modoki Nino.  January through March looks promising. 

Cold to close out October. 

Not to hype anything up but my goodness, if the new LRC comes out of the gates as the CFSv2 weeklies are suggesting it will be one of the most interesting seasons to analyze and follow.  

[chescowxman]

Our recent stretch of below normal temps looks to continue through much of the week. Nice weather through Friday but then needed rain is looking likely for the weekend. In addition to the rain...Saturday could be a mighty raw for September day with some of the highest spots in the county possibly not escaping the upper 50's. On a historical weather note today back in 1895 began the greatest late season heatwave across Chester County with the following locations all recording their first of 4 consecutive days over 90 degrees. Temperatures topped out at 100 at Coatesville; and 97 at West Chester, Phoenixville and Devault.

On the opposite side of the weather spectrum, today was also the earliest recorded freezing temperature, with a 32 degree low observed at both Coatesville and in West Chester back in 1956

Records for today: High 93 (1895) / Low 32 (1956) / Rain 2.48" (1938)

[Andie]

Far North Midwest members-

A Geomagnetic Storm Watch was issued Monday for fears of potential issues with communications and power grids on the ground, it was a different story in the sky, with people across the U.S. reporting dazzling displays of the Northern Lights – even farther south than usual.

[Black Hole]

Here is the latest Sep height anomaly composite:

Compare that to the forecast for the last 10 days of the month. The monthly average will probably end up pretty similar to what we have other than that we will have mean troughing over the far PNW and areas in the northeast will end up closer to average.

Looking into early October:Perhaps early signs of the GOA trough beginning to come alive. This helps to push everything downstream a bit further east as well. Difficult to say on if this actually develops of course, but the signs are there. For fun, here are the weeklies for the end of October to early November:

By this point we definitely have the BC ridge with cooler air east of the Rockies. Also a bit of a split flow look with a stronger STJ trying to get going. Not that week 6 weeklies are very accurate, but I just love watching things evolve this time of year.