2023 - 2024 Autumn & Winter Discussions

[Black Hole]

30 day EPS mean shows what you'd want to see for mid Dec to mid Jan with the Aleutian low retracted to the west, split flow and ridging in the PNW up through BC, then the downstream trough across the east. 

Of course it remains hard to say if this will actually work out for individuals, but in the net I'd expect above normal winter weather opportunities in this pattern. On the other hand, looking at the control run its a jumbled incoherent mess so again, hard to say if things will phase properly or not. 

[OKwx2k4]

On 11/24/2023 at 3:58 PM, jaster220 said:

@Tom

Just watched last week's Saturday Summary and JB had a great segment on how the JMA is showing a very strong resemblance to 2014-15 as you go month-to-month. That ofc would mean we may roast and get very bored with December. 

We may all well get another two week torch in, but if we go 14-15s route, once we get cracked off, it'll be a 12 week adventure. That's the idyllic "both flavors of Niño" scenario, really. Even though I believe 2014-15 is regarded as a neutral. 

Some rounds of this pattern include reinforcing cold shots or a blocking effect as well and that is something to keep in mind going into the cold cycle of this pattern later in season.

[Black Hole]

Here is a look at this fall so far compared to other Nino years. What stands out to me is 1.) how ridgey this fall has been and 2.) how unique it is compared to other years.

There is simply no comparison for the breadth of the ridging across Canada. Some other years had some focused around the same spot like 2009, but none were as broad. But look at the subtropics too, wall to wall ridging. Some comparison to 2015 (less) and most other years had none. But to top it off, the middle o fhte country had more ridging than most other years too. It's fair to say this was probably the most ridgey fall on record for an El Nino. Now if you focus on just the pattern and forget the amplitude of the anomalies, there are still no good matches, or really even ok matches. The closest I can see is 1997 actually, which had a hint of ridging across the mountain west and the 'eyes' on the sides. 

Further, looking at November, also a ridge-fest, there are no quality matches to update the analog method for this month...just a couple of crappy matches. 

[Black Hole]

So with all the above said, if we take the ECMWF weeklies for the next month (questionable I know), we have the top left panel on this image. Compare that to the other ninos of similarish strength. Not that many matches, but what stands out to me is that the modeled pattern is pretty uncommon during Dec El Nino.

There are some decent matches though, 2002 is a pretty solid match! 2009 and 1963 are also decent. The key being that +PNA ridge and downstream troughing. A few other years like 1997, 1987, 1972 have some good qualities but don't really match up with the location of the ridging...which matters a lot here. 

 

Anyway, roll those years forward with a double match for 2002 and unsurprisingly you get an excellent winter, especially Feb.

 

The surface temp anomalies pretty much match the upper level maps so I will just do Feb temps since its fun.

 

 

 

[Black Hole]

As a final point, if there is any skill to these maps...this still looks real interesting for the end of December. In fact all 3 of those top analog years had 5-10" snow storms in the Tulsa area the last 10 days of December so it would fit. Also, all of these years had 1-2 other good storms later on. 

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

We may all well get another two week torch in, but if we go 14-15s route, once we get cracked off, it'll be a 12 week adventure. That's the idyllic "both flavors of Niño" scenario, really. Even though I believe 2014-15 is regarded as a neutral. 

Some rounds of this pattern include reinforcing cold shots or a blocking effect as well and that is something to keep in mind going into the cold cycle of this pattern later in season.

Have seen 14-15 listed as a weak Nino. 

This week, his video really showing a strong correlation between WxBell's core analog winters and where the Euro is going with December. 

WeatherBELL Analytics

(scroll to bottom of pg)

[jaster220]

12 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

As a final point, if there is any skill to these maps...this still looks real interesting for the end of December. In fact all 3 of those top analog years had 5-10" snow storms in the Tulsa area the last 10 days of December so it would fit. Also, all of these years had 1-2 other good storms later on. 

Exactly what I just watched in the WxBell vid. Bastardi saying Christmas week should be interesting. His core analog set (DEC) 57/65/02/09 looks like a freaking overlay of the Euro for next month. Globally as well, not just N America. 

[Black Hole]

You may have seen these maps from webberweather on twitter:

 

Interesting that this looks pretty close to what we are seeing this month. A preferred storm track up the central Plains, with a lot of heavy rain along the southern part of the cold front along the Gulf Coast.

Now compare that to the EPS and my hand drawn map. Seems to be a continuation. 

 

My take on this is that the central Plains, meaning the areas that just scored with the last storm or perhaps a little north should do quite well on average the next few weeks and possibly beyond. It looks very wet along the gulf coast. I might be in the screw zone with little winter or severe weather but at least it'll rain. 

[FV-Mike]

Fascinating post by NYC's forecast office. 

[Black Hole]

The ECMWF Weekly Control run is absolutely lit this morning with the perfect pattern for some big-time winter storms in the Plains. This is in January so its a ways away, but it does agree with the EPS weekly signal even though its muted as would be expected. If we can survive this dull Dec it does look more interesting in January. 

 

[Hoosier]

30 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

The ECMWF Weekly Control run is absolutely lit this morning with the perfect pattern for some big-time winter storms in the Plains. This is in January so its a ways away, but it does agree with the EPS weekly signal even though its muted as would be expected. If we can survive this dull Dec it does look more interesting in January. 

 

Wow is that a good look overall.  Lock it in! lol

[Minny_Weather]

7 hours ago, Black Hole said:

The ECMWF Weekly Control run is absolutely lit this morning with the perfect pattern for some big-time winter storms in the Plains. This is in January so its a ways away, but it does agree with the EPS weekly signal even though its muted as would be expected. If we can survive this dull Dec it does look more interesting in January. 

 

Bleh. Looks like another 2020-21 or 2018-19 situation for me. Those winters featured brutal cold spells with a near-bare ground.

[jaster220]

45 minutes ago, Minny_Weather said:

Bleh. Looks like another 2020-21 or 2018-19 situation for me. Those winters featured brutal cold spells with a near-bare ground.

Sux to say but I think you're a year tardy to the Minny Party

[Minny_Weather]

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Sux to say but I think you're a year tardy to the Minny Party

I'm expecting a pretty lackluster year but it's whatever. I'm still recovering from the 2021-22 blizzardfest. 

[jaster220]

22 hours ago, sumweatherdude said:

Does anyone know what atmospheric conditions caused the Winter of 1978-79 to be so bad?  It was bad almost everywhere east of the Rockies, and in other parts of the world.  I was around then, but only 6 years old.  Although I remember snow and cold, I don't remember any specifics.  Just curious if anyone has ever done an analysis of what was going on at the macro level to make it so cold and snowy.

Nothing too scientific here, but it was the end of a multi-decadal cold period and as they say, it's always darkest before the dawn. Tbh, it may have been something a lot like what seems to be developing this year. This early winter is showing signs that it has the ingredients for big storms. Just need to get deeper into winter for our side to have a chance. Found this to be another hint:

 

And how crazy would it be if this forecast actually came true??

[Hoosier]

42 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Nothing too scientific here, but it was the end of a multi-decadal cold period and as they say, it's always darkest before the dawn. Tbh, it may have been something a lot like what seems to be developing this year. This early winter is showing signs that it has the ingredients for big storms. Just need to get deeper into winter for our side to have a chance. Found this to be another hint:

 

And how crazy would it be if this forecast actually came true??

Saw that Donnie baseball (Don S) is going for 38.5" at DTW and 27" at ORD.  That would be the antithesis of a big winter but hopefully with whatever we get, we can achieve it in an exciting manner.  Hopefully Don is underdoing it though.  I have a lot of respect for him but nobody's perfect.  His ORD prediction is just under mine (I went with a range of 28-35")

[jaster220]

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Saw that Donnie baseball (Don S) is going for 38.5" at DTW and 27" at ORD.  That would be the antithesis of a big winter but hopefully with whatever we get, we can achieve it in an exciting manner.  Hopefully Don is underdoing it though.  I have a lot of respect for him but nobody's perfect.  His ORD prediction is just under mine (I went with a range of 28-35")

Yeah, He is good and earned a respect no doubt. 38.5" would be my best winter in 5 yrs! (SMH)

[westMJim]

Meteorological Winter

The current 30 average temperature at Grand Rapids for the months of December, January and February is 27.3. That is up from the old 30 year average of 26.8 (The new 15 year average is 27.4)  The warmest meteorological winter at Grand Rapids is 33.9 set in 1931/32 The coldest is 18.2 set in 1903/04  The average snow fall at Grand Rapids for December to February is 60.6”  The snowiest meteorological winter was the 105.6” that fell in the 3 months in 2013/14 the total that season was 116.0. The least snow fall for any meteorological winter came in 1982/83 when just 11.8”fell. the total for that season was just 35.9” At Lansing the 30 year average mean temperature for meteorological winter is 26.4. The meteorological winter snow fall there is 35.5” and for the winter season the average snow fall is 50.2” Last year the meteorological winter mean temperature at Grand Rapids was a very mild 30.9° that was a departure of +3.6. At Lansing the meteorological winter mean last year was 31.9. As for snow fall there was a total of 110.7” November (28.0) and December (39.0) had 67.0” while January just (13.3) and February (5.7”) had just 19.0” Giving a good amount of mid-winter with little to no snow on the ground. Lansing had a total of 58.1” of snow fall last winter season.

With an El Nino winter in progress we will have to see just how this winter will play out. My guess at this time is for temperatures near what they were last winter at around 30° but with much less snow fall around 55”. We shall see.

[Tom]

It was the warmest Autumn on Record for the "Valley of the Sun"...of note, out of the top 5, a total of 3 were within the last 6 years!

[Niko]

I'll be happy if my area gets near near average snowfall this upcoming winter. I will accept it and run, considering, we are in a nino mode. Time will tell.

[Black Hole]

We'll get the nicer plots from sites like wxbell later, but here is the new ECMWF seasonal. It's mostly maintained the same look as before, but the height anomaly pattern is slightly more robust. Definitely a slight nudge NW with the neutral to negative height anomalies over the mid section of the country. 

[Jayhawker85]

3 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

Just from a purely superficial observation from my little corner of the world, this year doesn't appear to be shaping up like 2009-2010.  That's a winter I've seen referenced a lot here and on twitter.  JB was referencing it a lot until recently.  December 2009 in KC wound up with almost 400% of normal snowfall and was almost 5 degrees colder than normal.  Unless the mid- and long-term forecasts change dramatically over the next few days, that ain't happening this year.  Not saying we can't have a good back loaded winter.  It just doesn't seem to resemble the start of the 2009-2010 winter in the central plains.  Notably, JB's last few posts with analogs haven't mentioned 2009-10.

I agree! Unless the cycling pattern suddenly stops cycling, i don’t see a snowy nor cold winter for many in the Midwest. This winter will be the story of pacific air flooding the country which kills most hopes of a snowy winter. 
 

i was looking at the radar last night and even parts of Montana was seeing rain in DECEMBER!!

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, sumweatherdude said:

Just from a purely superficial observation from my little corner of the world, this year doesn't appear to be shaping up like 2009-2010.  That's a winter I've seen referenced a lot here and on twitter.  JB was referencing it a lot until recently.  December 2009 in KC wound up with almost 400% of normal snowfall and was almost 5 degrees colder than normal.  Unless the mid- and long-term forecasts change dramatically over the next few days, that ain't happening this year.  Not saying we can't have a good back loaded winter.  It just doesn't seem to resemble the start of the 2009-2010 winter in the central plains.  Notably, JB's last few posts with analogs haven't mentioned 2009-10.

No doubt many including JB would want to pull an 09-10 repeat out of any Nino. Y'all out in the Plains and the East Coasters raked in some historic events. JB has been more into a 14-15 style winter lately. Remains to be seen if the colder back-half shows up ofc.  

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, sumweatherdude said:

Some very basic stuff from Gary Lezak.  These are from his 6 month forecast.  He seems to think winter storms will be developing just east of KC and curving up through the southern Ohio Valley, giving Chicago a good chance of AN Snow, and then another major trough off the NE coast  

I was a little surprised he is forecasting average snowfall and average temps for us.  He is really bullish on the split flow with a very strong southern branch,  that combined with the blocking I would guess is the biggest driver in that along with the MJO.

[Jayhawker85]

59 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I was a little surprised he is forecasting average snowfall and average temps for us.  He is really bullish on the split flow with a very strong southern branch,  that combined with the blocking I would guess is the biggest driver in that along with the MJO.

I’m very surprised with that as well. I can see us being above average in precip but in the snow dept i strongly disagree with that but i guess we shall see in a few months 

[Clinton]

13 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

I’m very surprised with that as well. I can see us being above average in precip but in the snow dept i strongly disagree with that but i guess we shall see in a few months 

Well eastern Kansas has already had a nice snow.  Mlgamer I believe got 7 inches.

[mlgamer]

32 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Well eastern Kansas has already had a nice snow.  Mlgamer I believe got 7 inches.

Yep, that's right. Topeka officially has 7.2" for the winter and would only need 10" more to hit normal so we do kinda have a head start for once.

Overall, I think we'll be warm and wet here, but I do thing there will be warm and cold spells and if we time out the cold right it could give us more snow overall...maybe even above average for the year. Stay tuned! lol

[mlgamer]

4 hours ago, sumweatherdude said:

Some very basic stuff from Gary Lezak.  These are from his 6 month forecast.  He seems to think winter storms will be developing just east of KC and curving up through the southern Ohio Valley,

Storms forming just east of here has been a problem for many years in MBY and I believe persistent SW ridging has been a big part of the problem. I'm glad to see that Gary appears to show the SW ridging a little more flattened out and retrograded back to the west. Maybe that will open the door for more organized systems to move through here.

[Black Hole]

There is no denying that the weather we have seen so far has not resembled 2009-2010 and it's also true that in some ways it's not as good  of an analog as I thought it was a few months ago...but we should be clear that this was never the part of the year it was likely to match up with anyway.

The thing that makes 09-10 a good analog is where the El Nino forcing is coming from. We will match that fairly well from now through the end of winter. However, el nino forcing typically manifests more strongly later in the winter. To that end, the very different outcome so far between 09-10 is because the el nino influence has been lesser. In that sense, it could be two different paths to the same outcome (for late winter anyway). I am not saying that is for sure, but it's important to understand that things could change a lot for the 2nd half as this forcing increases and a likely SSW develops. Things could really change in a hurry during January. We will have to see. 

[Minny_Weather]

The fact that the storm track is already south (Wichita has more snow than most, if not every, location in Minnesota) is unsurprising and doesn't bode well to me until March. Usually if the Red River Valley is going to have a large snowpack, December is when the base is set up while the storm track is more favorable for the Dakotas and Western Minnesota. 

Basically, I'll have to rely on clippers to build a snowpack. That's what happened in 2020-21 when I had no more than 3" on the ground at any given time after October.

[Tom]

10 hours ago, mlgamer said:

Storms forming just east of here has been a problem for many years in MBY and I believe persistent SW ridging has been a big part of the problem. I'm glad to see that Gary appears to show the SW ridging a little more flattened out and retrograded back to the west. Maybe that will open the door for more organized systems to move through here.

The SW ridge was a clear indication early and often this Autumn out here and it is appearing to veer its ugly head for the storm that was supposed to dig this weekend but now tracking farther North.  The big key driver will be how strong and persistent the -EPO can develop.  Both of our regions need the ridge to pop in the NE PAC and troughs to track underneath it.  We have seen this happen from time to time.  What brings me some comfort is the fact that both the JMA & Euro seasonal show the NW NAMER ridge blossoming in JAN & FEB with a jet cutting underneath.  That is our saving grace!

This needs to change!  

[westMJim]

Winters since 1950 by decade.

There has been some discussion as to how winters now compared to what they were in years past. Is there less snow? Are they shorter? And are they warmer? This week I have looked at each decade going back to the winter of 1949/50 to see how the average snowfall, days of snow on the ground and the mean temperature has been in each ten year period. At Grand Rapids, Muskegon, and Lansing

The 1950’s Grand Rapids had a annual average of 73.5” Muskegon had 80.0” Lansing had 45.3” but had 3 years missing. The all time record snowfall amount of 132.0” fell at Grand Rapids in the 1950’s The lowest season only had 33.2” At Muskegon the decade most snowfall was 117.0” and the least was 37.5” in the seven years of records at Lansing the most was 88.8” and the least was just 20.7” The number of days with 1” or more of snow on the ground at Grand Rapids was 62 at Muskegon it was 71 and Lansing it was 59. The mean temperature in the 1950’s  for meteorological winter was 26.4° at GR 26.8 at Muskegon and 26.6 at Lansing.

The 1960’s At Grand Rapids the average snowfall was 82.3” at Lansing it was 45.7” and at Muskegon it was 25.9” the most in one season was 104.3” at Grand Rapids, 8.4” at Lansing and 68.3 at Muskegon. The average number of days with 1” or more on the ground was 85 at GR, 74 at Lansing and 91 at Muskegon. The most days of snow on the ground was 114 at GR. 108 at Lansing and 117 at Muskegon. The least number of days with snow on the ground was 58 at GR, 51 at Lansing and 64 at Muskegon. The average met winter temperature was 24.0 at GR, 24.2 at Lansing and 25.0 at Muskegon.

The 1970’s In the 1970’s Grand Rapids had a average 77.9” of snowfall with 101.0 the most and 64.0 the least. At Lansing the average was 62.5” with 75.3 most and 31.6 least. At Muskegon the average was 117.5 with the most 164.8 and the least 76.8 The average number of days with snow on the ground 90 at Grand Rapids, 82 at Lansing and 97 at Muskegon. The mean temperature for met winter was 23.1 at GR, 22.5 at Lansing and 24.8 at Muskegon.

The 1980’s In the 1980’s the 10 year average seasonal average snow fall was 65.6’ at Grand Rapids, 49.9’ at Lansing and 104.4” at Muskegon. The most snowfall in any one winter season was 96.0” at Grand Rapids 62.1” at Lansing and 173.9 at Muskegon. The least was 35.9 at GR, 33.5 at Lansing and 35.5” at Muskegon. That average number of days with 1” or more on the ground was 73 at GR and Lansing and 81 at Muskegon.  The meteorological winter mean temperature was 24.6 at GR, 23.1 at Lansing and 24.7 at Muskegon.

The 1990’s During the 1990’s only GR has complete records for snow fall. At GR the average seasonal snow fall was 73.8” the most was 98.4” and the least was 54.9” At Lansing they had a average of 51.5” of snow fall with the most being 67.4” and the least 36.4” there are 4 years missing at Muskegon but in the 6 that have records the average is 99.7” with the most being 136.8 and the least 68.8. As for average days with 1” or more on the ground Grand Rapids had 64. With 8 years in the record books Lansing had 6 the record are incomplete for Muskegon. As for the meteorological winter mean temperature it was 26.6 at Grand Rapids, 25.9 at Lansing and 27.5 at Muskegon.

The 2000’s At GR the average 10 year snowfall amount was 85.7” the most was 107.0 the least was 54.5” The snowfall records are incomplete at Lansing, At Muskegon with 8 years in the records the average was 80.6” the most was 148.2” and the least was 43.4” The average number of days with 1 or more inches on the ground during this time was 68 at GR Missing at Lansing and 70 at Muskegon. The average meteorological winter mean temperature was 26.3 at Grand Rapids, 25.4 at Lansing and 27.7 at Muskegon.

2010 to present. In the last 13 years the average annual 72.2snowfall at Grand Rapids was 72.2” the most was 116.0” and the least was 46.1” at Lansing the average was 47.9” most was 69.8” and the least was 30.2” a Muskegon the average was 82.2” the most was 148.2 and the least was 41.8. The average number of days with 1” or more on the ground 68 at GR, 65 at Lansing and 72 at Muskegon. As for the average meteorological winter mean temperature it has been 26.8 at GR, 26.3 at Lansing and 28.3 at Muskegon.

So are we getting less snowfall now compared to the past? At Grand Rapids the 1950’s 73.5” The 1960’s 82.3” the 1970’s 77.9” the 1980’s 65.6” the 1990’s 73.8” The 2000’s 85.7” and 20010 to last year 72.2” Not a real big difference is average snowfall at Grand Rapids BUT it has been getting warmer during the meteorological winter so that snowfall averages could fall in the coming years.

Note at the current time Grand Rapids with just 0.1" of snowfall this December is on pace for a record or near record low snow fall total for the month of December. Grand Rapids is already at one of the lowest snowfall totals for this late in the season 

[Madtown]

Would be curious to see what changed in Muskegon in the 90's. Was pretty lockstep in temps with the others till then, and then a large jump. Also interesting the current avgs are close to those of the 50's

[Clinton]

In Gary's report this week he discussed how the artic air has been bottled up in Siberia and it may not spill into the US until the second half of Jan.  

Hopefully we'll see this part of the pattern at least twice this Winter.

This is the other player in the pattern which looks like the next few weeks ahead.

 

[Grizzcoat]

To me- Lezak - is an odd forecaster. ( nothing agst his hyp cycle) ----  Like who focuses on 3 ND locations- and misses MSP/FSD/OMA/DSM/STL  ( that has 2-3 times the population of ND just in combines urban areas alone??? --   that is much closer to his "home"> But not my forecast. Each to their own- but just odd.

[Tom]

The UKIE for the next 3 months has held steadfast and pretty much says that "Real Winter" will show up for the Eastern CONUS...December has been lackluster thus far, but there are large number of models showing changes just before the holidays into the New Year.  That is a beauty of a -NAO signal!

[mlgamer]

China appears to be enduring a harsh December (all part of that recent Siberian cold blob) which reminded me of their severe winter of 2008. It seems we have nothing quite as harsh as this reads in the USA anymore. This is pretty interesting stuff...

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-braces-blistering-cold-this-week-2023-12-12/

Snow, blizzards and plunging temperatures swept northern China in what could be one of its most severe cold snaps in December, spurring authorities in the capital to halt train services, shut schools and tell people to stay home.

A mass of cold air drifted into Beijing from the west, the second cold wave this week. City officials have issued the second-highest alert for blizzards through Thursday, the only such warning yet in the country...

...This week's cold snap, compared with the autumn-like conditions of a week ago, reflects recent sharp temperature swings. October was one of Beijing's warmest in decades, in a year of weather extremes...

...Temperatures could drop more than 14 C, across swathes of northern, northwestern and southern China, along with parts of Inner Mongolia, Guizhou province and even regions south of the Yangtze River, weather officials have said.

Issuing its first alert since 2013 against freezing temperatures, the National Meteorological Centre (NMC) urged local governments to take precautions, along with measures to protect tropical crops and aquatic produce.

It has forecast wide rain and snowfall in central and eastern regions until Friday, with as much as 30 mm (1.2 inches) of precipitation in snowstorms in parts of Shaanxi, Henan and Shandong provinces.

The cumulative snowfall could be the highest in the corresponding period in a decade, it added.

Many rivers have already frozen over in the vast northeastern province of Heilongjiang bordering Russia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Chinese_winter_storms

The 2008 Chinese winter storms were a series of winter storm events that affected large portions of southern and central China, where it does not usually snow severely or extensively, starting from 25 January 2008, until 6 February 2008. The systems affected most of the area with heavy snows, ice, and cold temperatures causing extensive damage and transportation disruption for several thousand travelers. It became China's worst winter weather in half a century. According to some media sources, the storms were directly responsible for at least 129 deaths...(more at link)

 

[OKwx2k4]

@mlgamerbrought up a year that has kept creeping into my consciousness and that was 2008-09. Even though it was pre-niño of 2009-10, there are some similarities in the nature of this season and that one. 

@Black Holehas great points about 2009 still being relevant in a lot of areas and also why its not, as well. The forcing and modeled -NAO are two very key points. 

That is what makes weather and sst/analog based forecasting so fun. No two years are the same. If you get close at 500mb you can get a reasonable idea of some stuff. El Niño, in the broad sense, does do some generally predictable things but I'm very thankful now that major forecasters are stating in their forecasts for the first time in over a generation that there's no cookie cutter for an El Niño or a one size fits all and to me that's a huge breakthrough. Stating things now that are science backed like that background state in prior years does matter and some other stuff. 

That said, I think there's still a good amount of winter to go around yet.

[OKwx2k4]

1 hour ago, mlgamer said:

China appears to be enduring a harsh December (all part of that recent Siberian cold blob) which reminded me of their severe winter of 2008. It seems we have nothing quite as harsh as this reads in the USA anymore. This is pretty interesting stuff...

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-braces-blistering-cold-this-week-2023-12-12/

Snow, blizzards and plunging temperatures swept northern China in what could be one of its most severe cold snaps in December, spurring authorities in the capital to halt train services, shut schools and tell people to stay home.

A mass of cold air drifted into Beijing from the west, the second cold wave this week. City officials have issued the second-highest alert for blizzards through Thursday, the only such warning yet in the country...

...This week's cold snap, compared with the autumn-like conditions of a week ago, reflects recent sharp temperature swings. October was one of Beijing's warmest in decades, in a year of weather extremes...

...Temperatures could drop more than 14 C, across swathes of northern, northwestern and southern China, along with parts of Inner Mongolia, Guizhou province and even regions south of the Yangtze River, weather officials have said.

Issuing its first alert since 2013 against freezing temperatures, the National Meteorological Centre (NMC) urged local governments to take precautions, along with measures to protect tropical crops and aquatic produce.

It has forecast wide rain and snowfall in central and eastern regions until Friday, with as much as 30 mm (1.2 inches) of precipitation in snowstorms in parts of Shaanxi, Henan and Shandong provinces.

The cumulative snowfall could be the highest in the corresponding period in a decade, it added.

Many rivers have already frozen over in the vast northeastern province of Heilongjiang bordering Russia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Chinese_winter_storms

The 2008 Chinese winter storms were a series of winter storm events that affected large portions of southern and central China, where it does not usually snow severely or extensively, starting from 25 January 2008, until 6 February 2008. The systems affected most of the area with heavy snows, ice, and cold temperatures causing extensive damage and transportation disruption for several thousand travelers. It became China's worst winter weather in half a century. According to some media sources, the storms were directly responsible for at least 129 deaths...(more at link)

 

I believe we are currently sitting on the warm side of this balancing act. However, if I were storing cold air, I'd start it over the largest landmass in the Northern Hemisphere. 

Interesting stuff indeed.

[Naptownwx]

16 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

Most of the models have moved away from a 7, 8, 1 MJO and into a forecast for the null phase.  

That changes everyday. Lol