September 2023 Weather in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS keeps a moisture plume just offshore for days.   At least through day 10... don't care what it shows after that.   12Z GEM went back to a ridgy scenario after showing the same thing as the GFS on its 00Z run.

Okay. Just looks like something you would post...

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Okay. Just looks like something you would post...

Yeah... not me.    Sorry.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... not me.    Sorry.

If the shoe fits.

[Cloud]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS keeps a moisture plume just offshore for days.   At least through day 10... don't care what it shows after that.   12Z GEM went back to a ridgy scenario after showing the same thing as the GFS on its 00Z run.

Too far out to even know at this point.. all it'll take is a shift to the east a few miles and it's a whole lot of wet for the region. As depicted by the 6z. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If the shoe fits.

I get why you would think that... but its someone else.      Might even be one of you trying to impersonate me.  

Check with Mark on his IP address location.  

[Doinko]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Apparently just causing trouble in Mark Nelsen s blog comments. 

That's a different tim I'm pretty sure, they've been posting comments there for a while

[Doinko]

4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The current all-time September low at BNO is 17, so they can get cold. The old Harney Branch station was in a fairly similar spot from 1922 to 1954 and they recorded some insane temps during that stretch. The 48/2 on 9/24/26 is pretty out there... So is the -11/-45 from December 1924.

That 1924 number is crazy, how cold did they get in other cold waves that decade?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Doinko said:

That 1924 number is crazy, how cold did they get in other cold waves that decade?

-45 in January 1930. Average low was -11.3 in January 1949. Mean temp that month was 4.3.

Hit -42 in January 1937 and had a monthly mean of 5.3. -36 in February 1933. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z GFS looks fine to me. 

[Cloud]

In the short term, the 12z Euro with like a slight increase to the rain totals for the Seattle area to about a quarter of an inch. Similar to the GFS. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF has completely abandoned the idea of a ULL cutting off to the west over the ocean next weekend in favor of much more consolidated flow.  

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF and GFS are pretty much in lock step one week from today... GEM is on its own with a more ridgy scenario.  

[TT-SEA]

First AR type event for Vancouver Island next weekend... would be pretty beneficial up there.  

[MossMan]

Had ash on my truck this morning. 

[MossMan]

21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

First AR type event for Vancouver Island next weekend... would be pretty beneficial up there.  

Would be nice to have it slip south after they get a good drenching. 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Would be nice to have it slip south after they get a good drenching. 

On this run its actually in the process of pulling westward when it drenches VI.    But there is so much model volatility that it could easily end up over western WA.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Okay. Just looks like something you would post...

That’s your sock account.  

[Phil]

On 9/14/2023 at 9:22 PM, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Me thinks you haven’t been paying attention. 

CFS is going to be replaced soon. What will you do then?

On 9/15/2023 at 2:20 PM, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z and ensembles looking pretty good.

So maybe the GFS wasn’t in clown mode for once. Pattern looks decent across ensemble means.

18 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes... but it can come in firehose spurts and be broken up with some nice periods and still be much wetter than normal.    I am guessing November and December will be very wet.    That is just a guess of course.   But if I had to bet that it what I would put money on.  

Would be preferable if it were a prolonged light rain for best absorption into soil, right?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

CFS is going to be replaced soon. What will you do then?

So maybe the GFS wasn’t in clown mode for once. Pattern looks decent across ensemble means.

Would be preferable if it were a prolonged light rain for best absorption into soil, right?

99% of the rain we get is fairly light. Even when we get big amounts, its generally just due to duration. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS says December is our time to shine. 

[Phil]

With the exception of the upper 40s in Everett, yesterdays 50°F low was the coolest I’ve seen since May.

It’s coming.  

[SnowWillarrive]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

CFS says December is our time to shine. 

White Christmas 

[YahRaEl]

66° out now here at Eastside Tacoma 

[YahRaEl]

Dry for December tho 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, ChristheElohim said:

Dry for December tho 

That's okay. A dry chilly month might be nice. 

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous day in between mid-level cloud bands... sunny and 72 here.  

[The Cats Meow]

Stunning sunshine and 72 in the valley.

A Seahawks win.

Lots of Krusty Pups being devoured over at the State Fair.

Doesn't get much better.

[TT-SEA]

15 minutes ago, The Cats Meow said:

Stunning sunshine and 72 in the valley.

A Seahawks win.

Lots of Krusty Pups being devoured over at the State Fair.

Doesn't get much better.

Are you spending your days eating copious amounts of fried food at the fair?

Only complaint today is that the Mariners no longer have any offense.  

[ShawniganLake]

The area burned by wildfires in BC this season is now over 6 million acres. 

[The Cats Meow]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Are you spending your days eating copious amounts of fried food at the fair?

Only complaint today is that the Mariners no longer have any offense.  

I love the fair and all it's glorious food.  Scones and Krusty Pups for me.

The fair comes to me every year.  I have no choice living mere blocks from the beast.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Made it to the summit of Mt. Seymour on the last day of the last weekend of astronomical summer. Could definitely feel a weather system was coming in as I got close to the trailhead on the return trip; it was getting quite chilly.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12Z hour 240 precip maps, Euro versus GFS.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12Z hour 240 precip, ensemble mean. Of particular note is that the ECMWF mean is nowhere near as stingy on precip for Oregon as is the operational.

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

43 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

12Z hour 240 precip, ensemble mean. Of particular note is that the ECMWF mean is nowhere near as stingy on precip for Oregon as is the operational.

 

Let it rain. Let it pour. Let it flood.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Made it to the summit of Mt. Seymour on the last day of the last weekend of astronomical summer. Could definitely feel a weather system was coming in as I got close to the trailhead on the return trip; it was getting quite chilly.

Is that you or your friend?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Is that you or your friend?

It's me.

[Gradient Keeper]

6 hours ago, Doinko said:

That's a different tim I'm pretty sure, they've been posting comments there for a while

Agreed.

00z GFS in 2 hours 35 minutes

[T-Town]

Amazing day. 73 degrees and mostly sunny. 

[GHweatherChris]

38 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It's me.

I thought you were like 22 or something 

[Gradient Keeper]

20 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I thought you were like 22 or something 

I thought he was like 30 or something. He looks like Eustace from the show Mountain Men. A compliment of course.

00z ECMWF in 3 hours 47 minutes