September 2023 Weather in the PNW

[TacomaWx]

0.06” of rain this morning. First time it’s rained in 2 weeks. 

[TacomaWx]

3 hours ago, Cloud said:

PSCZ developed over the Seattle area and producing light rain right now. BFI picked up 0.10” so far since 4am. A surprisingly good amount. 

Yeah, based on the models I was expecting maybe 0.01” or so this morning. Convergence zone has slipped down here though. Tomorrow should be an even better soaking. 

[MossMan]

21 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah, based on the models I was expecting maybe 0.01” or so this morning. Convergence zone has slipped down here though. Tomorrow should be an even better soaking. 

I’m always missing out on all the fun.

 

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

41 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah, based on the models I was expecting maybe 0.01” or so this morning. Convergence zone has slipped down here though. Tomorrow should be an even better soaking. 

A significant overperformance compared to the models for the central Sound region.

[Randyc321]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

A significant overperformance compared to the models for the central Sound region.

Just .03 here on Bainbridge, but it was a nice surprise.

[TacomaWx]

55 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

Just .03 here on Bainbridge, but it was a nice surprise.

0.09” here, definitely wasn’t a uniform soaking rainfall for everyone but we just have to get what we can take until the big rains hit. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

More is coming tomorrow.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS goes crazy with the AR event Sunday/Monday... brought it back after the 06Z run took it away.    The 12Z GEM shows a band of rain on Saturday and then builds in a ridge with the rain way offshore.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice run.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[ShawniganLake]

Didn’t see even a trace of rain overnight here.  Dropped to 48F this morning which I believe is the coolest of the season so far.  59F currently under a cloudless clear blue sky. 
 

September rainfall so far is at 0.19”.  

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z GEM was very ridgy and warm... but its 12Z ensemble mean looks more like the GFS so I would say the 12Z GEM can be ignored today.

[Phishy Wx]

 

[TT-SEA]

Almost totally sunny here now... quick transition from the drizzle and low clouds early this morning.    We picked up .16 here.   Nice to see parts of Seattle actually got more than we did out here.

[SouthHillFrosty]

18 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

 

Sorry I let my moose out for a walk and it went after a cat and got lost.

[Cloud]

26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Almost totally sunny here now... quick transition from the drizzle and low clouds early this morning.    We picked up .16 here.   Nice to see parts of Seattle actually got more than we did out here.

BFI picked up 0.22 from this morning. Pretty good to see. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty cloudy here in Salem still. Running a +1.6 departure on the month through yesterday. Yesterday actually ran a -1 departure, my guess is this month ends up relatively close to average. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pretty cloudy here in Salem still. Running a +1.6 departure on the month through yesterday. Yesterday actually ran a -1 departure, my guess is this month ends up relatively close to average. 

PDX is about three degrees above average through yesterday. If the month ended today it would be their warmest September on record, edging out last year.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS goes crazy with the AR event Sunday/Monday... brought it back after the 06Z run took it away.    The 12Z GEM shows a band of rain on Saturday and then builds in a ridge with the rain way offshore.  

Let’s go GFS! Looks even better for down here.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Let’s go GFS! Looks even better for down here.

12Z ECMWF is further west than the GFS.   It actually shows a totally sunny and warm day on Monday with highs in the 80s even up here.

[Phishy Wx]

next monday looks warm over here in the low 80s

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF washes out the AR rain band before it moves inland by Tuesday afternoon.  

[Cold Snap]

Picked up 0.13” from the convergence zone.

[MossMan]

Looks like summer is continuing for the foreseeable future. 

[TacomaWx]

Up to 63 after a low of 54. Some sunbreaks here but overall a fall like day. 0.12” of rain MTD as of this morning…there’s some summer like days coming up at times but rains also showing up on the models. Just gotta be patient! 

[SouthHillFrosty]

With the most recent rain, that brings my fourth month total of rain (June, July, August, September) to 2.04in.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

With the most recent rain, that brings my fourth month total of rain (June, July, August, September) to 2.04in.

Tim is going to go discuss it on the fox 12 blog

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

With the most recent rain, that brings my fourth month total of rain (June, July, August, September) to 2.04in.

1.14” here since June 1st. 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tim is going to go discuss it on the fox 12 blog

Some Tim might... but not this one.   

[TT-SEA]

55 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Looks like summer is continuing for the foreseeable future. 

I would not discount the GFS yet.   

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is further west than the GFS.   It actually shows a totally sunny and warm day on Monday with highs in the 80s even up here.

I wonder if there will be some sort of compromise between the GFS and EURO/GEM solutions or if the GFS is completely out to lunch. The 12z GFS doubled down on the AR event though. It’s just hard to not go with EURO.

[BLI snowman]

Progressive wave train like the GFS is showing is probably not the way to go, given recent history and the ongoing pattern blahness.

[SouthHillFrosty]

I was doing some research and came across Palmer, Washington. Never heard of this place and it averages 90 inches of rain and 36 inches of snow per year. Located right past Ravensdale. Sounds like the place to be if you like snow and rain.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

I was doing some research and came across Palmer, Washington. Never heard of this place and it averages 90 inches of rain and 36 inches of snow per year. Located right past Ravensdale. Sounds like the place to be if you like snow and rain.

Snow Wizard has mentioned it before. 

[SnowWillarrive]

16 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I was doing some research and came across Palmer, Washington. Never heard of this place and it averages 90 inches of rain and 36 inches of snow per year. Located right past Ravensdale. Sounds like the place to be if you like snow and rain.

I live near there. The weather changes pretty quickly with a sharp cut off from about 169 in Maple Valley towards the foothills. We are literally a few minutes from the Cascade foothills. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12z ICON brings in some rain on Monday.

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4.02" here since June 1.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

14 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

12z ICON brings in some rain on Monday.

 

These early fall systems kind of limp along, they can be hard to predict, but they can deliver nourishing quantities of rain for the locales they directly impact and bless.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12Z Euro hour 240 precip maps.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12Z GFS hour 240 precip maps. Of interest is how closely the two ensemble means (Euro and GFS) agree with each other. The ridiculously wet GFS operational stands alone so probably isn’t going to happen.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

The two torchiest Euro maps I could find. Really starting to look like there will be no more touchdowns for Tiger until next year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

The two torchiest Euro maps I could find. Really starting to look like there will be no more touchdowns for Tiger until next year.

SLE is going to only have 1 90+ in September. If not for last Friday their last 90+ would have been August 25th, of course it is possible to hit 90 through that first week of October.

[Omegaraptor]

42 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

These early fall systems kind of limp along, they can be hard to predict, but they can deliver nourishing quantities of rain for the locales they directly impact and bless.

Moving back to Corvallis next weekend

I predict PDX gets 2” storm total and CVO gets 0.10”

[LowerGarfield]

56 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

The two torchiest Euro maps I could find. Really starting to look like there will be no more touchdowns for Tiger until next year.

How else will the Duck get his pull ups in? Or maybe it's push ups?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Moving back to Corvallis next weekend

I predict PDX gets 2” storm total and CVO gets 0.10”

I went camping at Marion Forks on the way to Santiam Pass in September 2010, I remember a front stalled out and gave SLE a ton of rain, we had nothing at Marion Forks. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I was doing some research and came across Palmer, Washington. Never heard of this place and it averages 90 inches of rain and 36 inches of snow per year. Located right past Ravensdale. Sounds like the place to be if you like snow and rain.

@Phil used to pass through there on his trips in to Seattle from Stampede Pass

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

These early fall systems kind of limp along, they can be hard to predict, but they can deliver nourishing quantities of rain for the locales they directly impact and bless.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

47 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Moving back to Corvallis next weekend

I predict PDX gets 2” storm total and CVO gets 0.10”

Just in time for the fall equinox, welcome back!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z is nice.

[Meatyorologist]

18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

18z is nice.

Really liking how the post-Equinox warm signal has been watered down to 2 or 3 seasonably mild days, followed by what will probably end up being the first jet extension of the season. Blessings to go 'round for all.

Right now it's 64F and partly cloudy here with filtered sunshine, nearing 4pm. Lyphe is good.