September 2023 Weather in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

00z GFS says summer is over in the west. Perfect fit to canonical S/O/N phase-8 pattern.

Summer has been over for 2 weeks for everyone.    And a couple months ago on here there were rumors summer would end in mid-August.  Yet here we are in mid-September speculating on when "summer" will end.

Anyways... ECMWF definitely not in agreement with the GFS.  

[YahRaEl]

57° overall/average temperature here at Eastside Tacoma Neighborhood this am but a range between 54-59° per the several WX Stations around. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

55F and pleasant out there.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a 77/54 yesterday. Partly to mostly cloudy early and some sprinkles late. Kind of a cloudy and balmy morning, 61. The last few days of “troughing” have been sort of a disappointment temp wise, and now we’re right back to heat for the foreseeable future starting tomorrow.

[TT-SEA]

8 hours ago, Phil said:

More nocturnal action. Leaf drop starting early from stressed vegetation.

(Viewer discretion advised, Tim. Video may contain cloudy skies and liquid H2O). 

IMG_6739.mov 79.63 MB · 0 downloads

 

12 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Rain has ended... just cloudy now.   The grass along the roads here was burnt to a crisp one month ago and totally brown.  Not so any longer.    Also a hint of fall color starting.   

I posted a cloudy H2O pic as well yesterday!   Its pretty nice that the recent rain has reversed our early leaf drop here.   

[Phil]

I second this. The future stands before us.

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1701926072013799721?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

[Phil]

6 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Summer has been over for 2 weeks for everyone.    And a couple months ago on here there were rumors summer would end in mid-August.  Yet here we are in mid-September speculating on when "summer" will end.

Anyways... ECMWF definitely not in agreement with the GFS.  

Thankfully the EPS mean is significantly cooler than the operational ECMWF.

F**k summer. Can’t wait to watch it die.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Thankfully the EPS mean is significantly cooler than the operational ECMWF.

F**k summer. Can’t wait to watch it die.

The EPS mean was actually warmer for you.    Thankfully for who?    How does troughing in the PNW help you?  

[Phil]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

The EPS mean was actually warmer for you.    Thankfully for who?    How does troughing in the PNW help you?  

It’s going to lean warm here regardless with an autumn phase-8/WHEM W2 VP structure. Ensemble means miss the influence of the NE-ATL trough but that has nothing to do with the pattern in the PNW.

What happens in the PNW has little correlation to our weather until later in October or November. And even then it’s intermittent/state dependent.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

11 hours ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

One final heatwave before we say goodbye to summer!

Isn’t that what people were posting three weeks ago?

[Cloud]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The EPS mean was actually warmer for you.    Thankfully for who?    How does troughing in the PNW help you?  

Phil is living precariously through us of course  

Either way, the ensembles looks nice. 6z GFS and 00z Euro has us going below the red line towards the end of the month. Last night’s 00z euro op run was a bit on the warmer side. Weeee! 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s going to lean warm here regardless with an autumn phase-8/WHEM W2 VP structure. Ensemble means miss the influence of the NE-ATL trough but that has nothing to do with the pattern in the PNW.

What happens in the PNW has little correlation to our weather until later in October or November. And even then it’s intermittent/state dependent.

Your responses don't make any sense.   Its like me celebrating the end of winter when DC is in the 80s while we have 40-degree rain.  How does that benefit me?   It makes it worse.  

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Cloud said:

Phil is living precariously through us of course  

Vicariously... and is definitely the case.  

[Cloud]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Vicariously... and is definitely the case.  

YAh. That’s what I meant! Vicariously! 

[Front Ranger]

53 minutes ago, Phil said:

I second this. The future stands before us.

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1701926072013799721?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

Still looks like a near miss for the coastal NE at this point. Not much different than it looked a few days ago.

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Still looks like a near miss for the coastal NE at this point. Not much different than it looked a few days ago.

if the black line is the forecast track that's pretty D**n close and within the standard MOE

[Phishy Wx]

 

Track comparison Euro vs GFS

 

https://x.com/weatherbell/status/1701977948297851041?s=20

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Ended up with a 77/54 yesterday. Partly to mostly cloudy early and some sprinkles late. Kind of a cloudy and balmy morning, 61. The last few days of “troughing” have been sort of a disappointment temp wise, and now we’re right back to heat for the foreseeable future starting tomorrow.

4 days 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS completely takes away the Sunday/Monday rain event.   Caved to the ECMWF.

 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

14 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Unpopular opinion, but I think they should have school whether or not the bus can make it there or not. Snow is a fact of life in the winter up here, last year was more than normal, but the roads were only dangerous one or two days last winter. They lost 3 1/2 weeks of instruction due to snow, that’s completely unacceptable. My daughter was in kindergarten last year so I wasn’t too worried about it, but if it becomes a theme we may have to look at changing schools. 

Kids don't really learn anything in school these days anyway. Our school systems are terrible across the country for a variety of reasons. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS completely takes away the Sunday/Monday rain event.   Caved to the ECMWF.

 

Shocked face. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Kids don't really learn anything in school these days anyway. Our school systems are terrible across the country for a variety of reasons. 

Good point. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z still looks fairly troughy, nice batch of rain moved through NW Oregon. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Chance of frost Tuesday morning?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS completely takes away the Sunday/Monday rain event.   Caved to the ECMWF.

 

¡Qué una sorpresa!

[ShawniganLake]

Historic drought in SW BC

 

 

[T-Town]

Beautiful morning. Foggy earlier but lifting now. 61 degrees. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

35 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Historic drought in SW BC

 

 

We are at a level 3 water shortage here on the peninsula. The Elwha is incredibly low. 

[ShawniganLake]

8 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

We are at a level 3 water shortage here on the peninsula. The Elwha is incredibly low. 

Locally, the flow of the Cowichan river will be artificially enhanced starting today.  The Lake level is very near the bottom of the weir, so pumps have been installed along the top of the weir.  These will pump water from the lake into the river to maintain the minimum flow required for fish and wildlife habitat. 
 

https://beta.ctvnews.ca/local/vancouver-island/2023/9/11/1_6557051.amp.html

[The Blob]

I do look forward to cooler days. I want the window units out so we can fully enjoy our new windows we had installed in July.

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Chance of frost Tuesday morning?

Doubtful just about everywhere. Maybe your location?  Still a bit early for frost most places. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS looks pretty wet for winter and late spring. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

CFS looks pretty wet for winter and late spring. 

So applying the opposite rule... a dry winter and spring makes sense.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

So applying the opposite rule... a dry winter and spring makes sense.

You wish.

[ShawniganLake]

I’d put money on a dryish winter. Wouldn’t surprise me if October and or November went crazy wet though. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Dry!

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

21 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Doubtful just about everywhere. Maybe your location?  Still a bit early for frost most places. 

I'm just curious for my garden. Right now the low says 45, but we usually run 5-6 degrees below the stated low on clear nights. That puts us right in the threshold. 

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

4 days 

Euro says healthy, real trough at day 7.

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Euro says healthy, real trough at day 7.

That is challenging scenario to pull off.   Trough moves into western Canada and then backs up moving southwest into Oregon.    It could happen... but I am guessing there will be lots of volatility from run to run with that set up.   Or might end up being progressive and not happen at all.

[TT-SEA]

Mostly sunny now and up to 70 here... beautiful day.