October 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Andie]

Beginning Saturday we’ll have a stretch of highs in the 70’s.  
This Thursday could bring a 30% chance of rain however we’re looking at a dry early Fall thus far. 
High today 86. Friday 82. 

[westMJim]

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 58/45 there was 0.02” of rain fall. The sun was out 13% of the possible time. The average H/L for today is 63/43 the record high of 84 was set in 1930 and the record low of 27 was set in 1957 and 1987. The record rain fall amount of 1.52” fell in 1901. The record snow fall amount of 2.0” fell in 2006. Last year the H/L was 69/44 and there was 0.54” of rain fall.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Models and teleconnections showing a nice cold airmass in the middle of the country toward the end of the month and November.  EPO and WPO both shown to go negative and stay there and a phase 8 MJO is cold for the northern half of the sub in Nov.

Should the JMA be correct and the MJO stay in phase 1, we would combine cold with a wet pattern.

Keeps my area in the 4 Corners/SW somewhat in the game, but more importantly, the LR call last week is looking pretty good using the 30mb/50mb STRAT warming pools as guidance.  I'm going to warm up and approach the "Century Mark" come SUN and could last a few days but this pattern will eventually shift a bit to allow the jet to dig farther South by the tail end of OCT into early NOV. 

The JMA is showing a great pattern for the SW & TX and also up into the drought areas of the MW/S Plains.  Look at the drought monitor below and the JMA 3-4 week forecast...Boom!  Smack dab right over this area...its like a Godsend...hope it happens! 

IF, and that's a big IF, the JMA is right for the next 2-4 weeks, then the Heart of the LRC would be a beautiful Winter pattern for the central and southern CONUS.  You can pretty much lock in a cold and wet winter pattern.  I wonder if Gary looks at the JMA model for guidance.   

 

 

Week 3-4 Temp/Precip...

 

 

 

 

[chescowxman]

Today looks to be our last near normal temperature day before a stretch of well below normal temps and plenty of rain looking likely this weekend. I would not be surprised if some higher spots in the county struggle to get out of the 40's on Saturday. Who will turn their heat on?

Records for today: High 86 (1962) / Low 27 (1962) / Rain 2.96" (1904)

[OKwx2k4]

Models now trending to leaving me cooler than avg all but 48 hours or so of the entire run. That's definitely noteworthy. 

[jaster220]

7 hours ago, Tom said:

Keeps my area in the 4 Corners/SW somewhat in the game, but more importantly, the LR call last week is looking pretty good using the 30mb/50mb STRAT warming pools as guidance.  I'm going to warm up and approach the "Century Mark" come SUN and could last a few days but this pattern will eventually shift a bit to allow the jet to dig farther South by the tail end of OCT into early NOV. 

The JMA is showing a great pattern for the SW & TX and also up into the drought areas of the MW/S Plains.  Look at the drought monitor below and the JMA 3-4 week forecast...Boom!  Smack dab right over this area...its like a Godsend...hope it happens! 

IF, and that's a big IF, the JMA is right for the next 2-4 weeks, then the Heart of the LRC would be a beautiful Winter pattern for the central and southern CONUS.  You can pretty much lock in a cold and wet winter pattern.  I wonder if Gary looks at the JMA model for guidance.   

 

 

Week 3-4 Temp/Precip...

 

 

 

 

I'm sure you enjoyed your travels Tom, but very nice to have you back in the saddle posting on the wx. Missed your posts tbh. 

[Tom]

18 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I'm sure you enjoyed your travels Tom, but very nice to have you back in the saddle posting on the wx. Missed your posts tbh. 

Thanks Jaster!  I always think about all you guys when looking at the wx maps and the various regions everyone is living in.  We have such a large Sub it keeps it interesting and active.  Looking forward to seeing this Sub come alive over the next few weeks.

[Hoosier]

Tom Skilling has announced that he will be retiring at the end of February 2024.  An absolute legend in broadcast meteorology whose weather segments are really like no other in terms of duration.  Usually a TV weather segment will last a few minutes at most, but Tom's routinely last for several minutes and are packed with info.

https://wgntv.com/news/chicago-news/tom-skilling-to-retire/

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Tom Skilling has announced that he will be retiring at the end of February 2024.  An absolute legend in broadcast meteorology whose weather segments are really like no other in terms of duration.  Usually a TV weather segment will last a few minutes at most, but Tom's routinely last for several minutes and are packed with info.

https://wgntv.com/news/chicago-news/tom-skilling-to-retire/

First saw Tom when my folks got cable 42 years ago. Never was I so mesmerized by a TV weatherman. You nailed it (bolded). One of my fave images (Jan 19th 1994, The Big Freeze was on..):

 

Dec of '93 I was living in Traverse City (3rd year), and it stayed crazy mild until just before Christmas:

But once the cold came in force, the LES was non-stop! Rang in the New Year deep and it just kept getting deeper! Keep in mind, this is down at the airport in town at lake level but my place was on the high ground in the state forest. Easily had 40" OTG and my first experience with a mandatory roof clearing. 

1-19-94 nearly a -32F departure from normal! 

[hawkstwelve]

And so the teasing begins... Would line up well with the cold air mass Clinton was talking about around the end of the month.

 

[westMJim]

7 hours ago, jaster220 said:

1-19-94 nearly a -32F departure from normal! 

Here in Grand Rapids the H/L on 1/18/94 was 0/-15 for a departure of -31.8 then on the 19th the H/L was -2/-22 for a departure of -36.1. It snow 1.1" on the 18th and there was 0.4" on the 19th Here in MBY it was snowing at -22.

[westMJim]

Welcome to Friday the 13^th The official H/L yesterday at GRR was 59/43 there was 0.05” of rain fall before midnight. There were 14 HDD’s the highest wind gust was 20 MPH out of the E. There was 7% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is now down to 62/43 The record high of 87 was is 1975 and the record low of 24 was in 1993. The record rain fall amount of 1.35” fell in 1969 the record snow fall of 01.” Fell in 2006. Last year the H/L was 53/38 there was 0.19” of rain fall and a reported trace of snow fall.

[Andie]

Tomorrow will deliver an annular eclipse. No Tx will see near a near total event.  
The eclipse will enter and be visible in North Texas for 20 minutes. It will begin at 11:41 a.m. and will move out at 12:01 p.m.

We’ll have clear skies and 75*.  
Perfect viewing weather!  

[Clinton]

Clouds will not be good for viewing the eclipse in Western Missouri but temps will feel like fall this weekend. 

[Tom]

12 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Tom Skilling has announced that he will be retiring at the end of February 2024.  An absolute legend in broadcast meteorology whose weather segments are really like no other in terms of duration.  Usually a TV weather segment will last a few minutes at most, but Tom's routinely last for several minutes and are packed with info.

https://wgntv.com/news/chicago-news/tom-skilling-to-retire/

I found this out from my brother who sent me a text yesterday afternoon...Truly a Chicago Legend!  He had such an enormous impact in my younger childhood years that got me more intrigued about the weather bc of his long TV weather segments.  As you said, there is no body that I've seen on TV that does the work he shows on TV.  I've traveled across the country and watched the local TV stations weather segments and nothing compares to Tom Skilling.  

[chescowxman]

A beautiful Friday on tap with temps rising into the low 60's. Tomorrow looks wet especially from the afternoon through Sunday morning. Unseasonably chilly tomorrow with some higher spots remaining in the 40's. Slow moderation next week with more shower chances late Monday night.

Records for today: High 87 (1954) / Low 27 (1906) / Rain 2.03" (1927)

[OKwx2k4]

If one believes the BSR and its relation to our weather pattern here in the states, its literally a non-stop freight train of lows passing by every run. 

I'm actually becoming worried about how hard this may get after month's end and on out. 

This is a solid 4 day cold wave on tap here by October standards and as of right now, I'm on the back edge of where they'd phase at in a southern-branch phasing scenario. 

There's literally a 24 hour warm up and crashes right back down. Worth noting, for sure if you believe in patterning methodologies for later seasonal forecasting. 

[Iceresistance]

6 hours ago, Clinton said:

Clouds will not be good for viewing the eclipse in Western Missouri but temps will feel like fall this weekend. 

Come to Oklahoma!

[Black Hole]

57 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

If one believes the BSR and its relation to our weather pattern here in the states, its literally a non-stop freight train of lows passing by every run. 

I'm actually becoming worried about how hard this may get after month's end and on out. 

This is a solid 4 day cold wave on tap here by October standards and as of right now, I'm on the back edge of where they'd phase at in a southern-branch phasing scenario. 

There's literally a 24 hour warm up and crashes right back down. Worth noting, for sure if you believe in patterning methodologies for later seasonal forecasting. 

What is the BSR? At any rate, this is such a great pattern we are in. Wave after wave of cold northerly flow. As you noted, just wait till the southern branch really gets going and we can pair these cold shots with some moisture. Definitely some potential ahead if this is our winter pattern preview. 

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Black Hole said:

What is the BSR? At any rate, this is such a great pattern we are in. Wave after wave of cold northerly flow. As you noted, just wait till the southern branch really gets going and we can pair these cold shots with some moisture. Definitely some potential ahead if this is our winter pattern preview. 

Bering Sea Rule.

A quasi-psuedo pattern correlation via "X" number of days after (sorry don't remember the number attm) between SLP's tracking up near/into the Bering Sea and later downstream in the CONUS/Lwr 48. 

Rough map over-lay for you:

[Tom]

27 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Bering Sea Rule.

A quasi-psuedo pattern correlation via "X" number of days after (sorry don't remember the number attm) between SLP's tracking up near/into the Bering Sea and later downstream in the CONUS/Lwr 48. 

Rough map over-lay for you:

17-21 days…

[Andie]

3 hours ago, Black Hole said:

What is the BSR? At any rate, this is such a great pattern we are in. Wave after wave of cold northerly flow. As you noted, just wait till the southern branch really gets going and we can pair these cold shots with some moisture. Definitely some potential ahead if this is our winter pattern preview. 

I keep reading the South Central US will have a very real winter. The full treatment.  I hate it as Texans can’t drive in snow or ice. It’s even worse with so many west coasters moving here.  
It becomes the blind leading the lame!

So how snowy will it be?  

Our coming week will, however, be a knockout!

Sunny/Partly sunny and in the 70’s!!  Sign me up!

 

 

[hawkstwelve]

Only topped out at 47 today, good for a -16 departure from our average high. It was a gray, dreary, low-cloud day. Quite a bit of mist and light showers around that added an extra 0.09 to our storm total, bringing it up to 1.33. I don't think any model showed us under 2 inches total so another swing and a miss there. It sure seems like we've had a lot of those over the past few months. Rarely does a system over-perform nowadays.

We are looking at highs in the 50s and 60s over the next week which is right around or slightly below normal. Another system showing on the horizon for next week. Fits that week on/week off pattern Snodgrass has talked about recently. Maybe one of these storms can break the cycle and deliver an unexpected punch.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 49/47. There was 0.71” of rain fall for the month GR is at 3.01” There were 17 HDD’s for the month GR is now at 127. There were 0 CDD’s and for the month the total remains 27. The highest wind gust was 33 MPH out of the E. There was 0% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 62/43 the record high of 83 was set in 1892, 1897 and 1975 the record low of 29 was set in 1937. The record rain fall amount of 1.82” fell in 2017 the record snow fall was a trace in several years the last time was in 2006. Last year the H/L was 53/38 and there was 0.18” of rain fall.

There will a partial eclipse of the sun today but it will be way too cloudy to see anything here in GR. It will start at 11:41 AM reach maximum at around 1 PM (around 25%) and end at 2:22 PM.

[Black Hole]

14 hours ago, Andie said:

I keep reading the South Central US will have a very real winter. The full treatment.  I hate it as Texans can’t drive in snow or ice. It’s even worse with so many west coasters moving here.  
It becomes the blind leading the lame!

So how snowy will it be?  

Our coming week will, however, be a knockout!

Sunny/Partly sunny and in the 70’s!!  Sign me up!

 

 

I think all we can really say is that the large scale ingredients appear to be in place for a number of snow chances this winter, but whether or not the small stuff works out remains to be seen. I'm definitely optimistic heading into it though! 

[Tom]

14 hours ago, Andie said:

I keep reading the South Central US will have a very real winter. The full treatment.  I hate it as Texans can’t drive in snow or ice. It’s even worse with so many west coasters moving here.  
It becomes the blind leading the lame!

So how snowy will it be?  

Our coming week will, however, be a knockout!

Sunny/Partly sunny and in the 70’s!!  Sign me up!

 

 

IMHO, you stand a much better chance of seeing multiple snow events this season unlike in the years past where it came in FEB or later in the winter for a couple weeks.  I was talking with my cousin in Dallas and a few of his friends about the weather (of course) and they said it's primarily been icing events the past few winters rather than snow.  I informed them that the south is going to see some better snowfall this season.  I think JAN/FEB are going to be the Big months for you @Andie.

[Tom]

At 5:55am, I can see a hint of daylight beginning to emerge above the mountain ranges to my east.  It is one of the reasons why I love waking up in the early morning out here in Arizona.  I've always enjoyed the beauty of nature out here.  

Edit: Got a call from a friend and didn't post this...

[Iceresistance]

Y'all ready for the Ring of Fire?

[Andie]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

IMHO, you stand a much better chance of seeing multiple snow events this season unlike in the years past where it came in FEB or later in the winter for a couple weeks.  I was talking with my cousin in Dallas and a few of his friends about the weather (of course) and they said it's primarily been icing events the past few winters rather than snow.  I informed them that the south is going to see some better snowfall this season.  I think JAN/FEB are going to be the Big months for you @Andie.

Our winters are always late here. I recall only one Christmas with a light snow.  
But ice has been our historical nemesis.  
Dallas often gets off lighter than west where I am. Dallas county is lower in elevation and those few hundred feet make a difference.  

Im ready for a real winter. They’re great for killing off bugs and giving many plants the chilling hours they need to produce better.  

[chescowxman]

A wet and unseasonably chilly day on tap across Chester County today. Temperatures for most locations will remain in the 40's through the day. We may get close to the record rain for today which was set back in 2003 when 1.21" fell. Sunshine returns by tomorrow PM but below normal temps look likely through much of the next week.

Records for today: High 85 (1975) / Low 27 (1988) / Rain 1.21" (2003)

[Iceresistance]

NASA Is live

 

[mlgamer]

The drought continues unabated here and there is no significant rain in the forecast anytime soon. It has been particularly dry since August and it was already very dry before that. Officially, only 3.43" of rain have fallen since August 1st which is only 31% of normal. In fact, each month has gotten progressively worse in terms of percent of normal: Aug 45%, Sep 34%, Oct 14%. Not a pretty picture.

[Iceresistance]

I took these pictures at 11:50 AM

 

[Andie]

Love the solar photos!!

we hit a beautiful 70* today. Cooling down to a chilly 50 tonight. 

Rinse and repeat tomorrow except for a low of 48!  It’s sizing up to be a true Fall for us with the exception of our drought   
Temps are wonderful, light breezes and clear skies   
This morning was so nice we sat outside and had coffee and waved at the golfers.  I’ll have seconds please!

 

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday was 54/45, there was 0.55” of rain fall. There were 15 HDD’s and 3% of possible sunshine. The highest wind gust was 36 MPH out of the NE. For today the average H/L is now down to 61/42 the record high of 85 was set in 1897, 1899 and 1947. The record low of 23 was set in 1944. The record rain fall of 0.90” fell in 1942. There has yet to be any snow fall on the date. Last year the H/L was 52/37 and there was 0.14” of rain fall.

[westMJim]

Monday, October 15, 1984 Bronco Blizzard.

Mother Nature had an interesting plan for the 200th broadcast of Monday Night Football, and definitely wanted to challenge the Broncos and the Packers.  In attendance were 62,546 brave souls, who endured blizzard conditions.  The nation watched live as professional football players struggled to play the game while wind and snow wreaked havoc.  Fans had trouble seeing the players on the field.  Broadcasters did the best they could with their limited visibility as well.  The Broncos won the game by a final score of 17 to 14, with 14 of the Broncos’ points coming from their defense in the first minute of the game. The other three Denver points came on a crucial field goal in the first half from barefooted kicker, Rich Karlis. All of Green Bay’s points came in the second half.

By the time the game concluded, more than four inches of snow had accumulated on the field of Mile High Stadium.  Temperatures for the entire day had barely surpassed 30° F, approximately 30 degrees below average.  The storm had arrived earlier that day, but did not start to gain intensity until Monday night.  Winds gusted to more than 55 mph during the storm.  Snow totals from Monday until the storm concluded Tuesday evening ranged from 1 to 3 feet in the Denver area, with the higher amounts falling in the foothills just outside the city. 

[Clinton]

Light rain overnight has accumulated a quarter of an inch which was more than i expected.  More light rain and drizzle are expected today with temps staying in the 50s. It's currently 48 with sprinkles.

 

[chescowxman]

We picked up 1.20" of rain here in East Nantmeal with .04" falling since midnight.

Winds will pick up today and it will be chilly with highs only in the mid to upper 50's. We should stay in the below normal 50's for highs until Wednesday when temps will get closer to normal with temps rising to slightly above normal by Thursday before more rain moves in by next weekend.

Records for today: High 89 (1897) / Low 28 (1937) / Rain 1.58" (1954)

[OKwx2k4]

On 10/13/2023 at 1:31 PM, Black Hole said:

What is the BSR? At any rate, this is such a great pattern we are in. Wave after wave of cold northerly flow. As you noted, just wait till the southern branch really gets going and we can pair these cold shots with some moisture. Definitely some potential ahead if this is our winter pattern preview. 

Jaster covered the BSR pretty well. Just imagine, in modeling, seeing the US over the Bering Sea, then give it 6 weeks or so. You should see a shadow of the pattern repeat. 

It's why folks talk about hoping to see an Aleutian Low in late summer and fall. It means good winter. 

[OKwx2k4]

1 hour ago, westMJim said:

Monday, October 15, 1984 Bronco Blizzard.

Mother Nature had an interesting plan for the 200th broadcast of Monday Night Football, and definitely wanted to challenge the Broncos and the Packers.  In attendance were 62,546 brave souls, who endured blizzard conditions.  The nation watched live as professional football players struggled to play the game while wind and snow wreaked havoc.  Fans had trouble seeing the players on the field.  Broadcasters did the best they could with their limited visibility as well.  The Broncos won the game by a final score of 17 to 14, with 14 of the Broncos’ points coming from their defense in the first minute of the game. The other three Denver points came on a crucial field goal in the first half from barefooted kicker, Rich Karlis. All of Green Bay’s points came in the second half.

By the time the game concluded, more than four inches of snow had accumulated on the field of Mile High Stadium.  Temperatures for the entire day had barely surpassed 30° F, approximately 30 degrees below average.  The storm had arrived earlier that day, but did not start to gain intensity until Monday night.  Winds gusted to more than 55 mph during the storm.  Snow totals from Monday until the storm concluded Tuesday evening ranged from 1 to 3 feet in the Denver area, with the higher amounts falling in the foothills just outside the city. 

The day before my birthday. How cool. I know a lot of football history but didn't know this one.