October 2023 Observations and Discussion

[westMJim]

For the second day in a row new record highs have been set at Houghton 86, Marquette 82,and  Sault Ste Marie 82 in the UP Alpena 86 and today Grand Rapids 86. At this very warm start to October 2023 continues. I have 87 in MBY at this time.

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, gabel23 said:

The opening to the new LRC season??????? Nice cold dump into the central parts of the US. Good to see the NAO in the negative side. Corresponds pretty well with the long range showing lots of blocking. 

I'm keeping my fingers crossed for some rain tonight and tomorrow and EAX is mentioning frost this weekend as the cold air gets pulled down. Temps will be Halloween like over the weekend. 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Storms on my doorstep. Central Nebraska getting rocked. 

[Iceresistance]

16 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Storms on my doorstep. Central Nebraska getting rocked. 

There is a Tornadic Supercell coming your way!

Tornado Warning
NEC061-099-032215-
/O.NEW.KGID.TO.W.0025.231003T2140Z-231003T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Hastings NE
440 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

The National Weather Service in Hastings has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northwestern Franklin County in south central Nebraska...
  Southern Kearney County in south central Nebraska...

* Until 515 PM CDT.

* At 440 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Hildreth, or 18 miles southeast of Holdrege,
  moving northeast at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Minden around 455 PM CDT.
  Norman around 500 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Hastings.



LAT...LON 4050 9903 4049 9882 4048 9874 4022 9897
      4028 9918 4032 9918
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 221DEG 42KT 4033 9905

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN

[CentralNebWeather]

41 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

There is a Tornadic Supercell coming your way!

Tornado Warning
NEC061-099-032215-
/O.NEW.KGID.TO.W.0025.231003T2140Z-231003T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Hastings NE
440 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

The National Weather Service in Hastings has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northwestern Franklin County in south central Nebraska...
  Southern Kearney County in south central Nebraska...

* Until 515 PM CDT.

* At 440 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Hildreth, or 18 miles southeast of Holdrege,
  moving northeast at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Minden around 455 PM CDT.
  Norman around 500 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Hastings.



LAT...LON 4050 9903 4049 9882 4048 9874 4022 9897
      4028 9918 4032 9918
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 221DEG 42KT 4033 9905

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN

Appears it may have weakened according to local weather reports. It is 5:00 and it seems like nighttime, very dark. 

[Iceresistance]

6 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Appears it may have weakened according to local weather reports. It is 5:00 and it seems likely like nighttime, very dark. 

Take a picture or film if you can!

[hawkstwelve]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for E NE/SE SD. Looks like the main line should move through Sioux Falls somewhere between 7-9pm.

Hoping for some good boomers and a nice soaking!

[CentralNebWeather]

10 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Take a picture or film if you can!

Nothing I could see, and no sirens were activated. Here is video as the storm arrived. 

 

 

[jaster220]

23 hours ago, Tom said:

 

I have some plans I will be sharing with you all once they come into fruition.  It's been years in the making and a lot of hard work but its coming together.

So you're buying me that place in Tahoe I always dreamt of  

[CentralNebWeather]

This total fell in 15 minutes. 

[jaster220]

7 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

This total fell in 15 minutes. 

Yeah, that's a slight drop I'd say

[Andie]

We’ll have a high of 89 tomorrow 

Low of 68 with a 90% chance of rain.  
Sounds good to me!
High Thursday and Friday 80 !  

Looks like Fall has arrived.  
High Saturday will be 72!!

[CentralNebWeather]

Unfortunately, there are reports of crop damage of corn and soybeans not yet harvested, due to large hail. 

[Clinton]

Glad to see eastern Nebraska get a good drink.  Hopefully the amounts are as impressive as the radar returns. 

[hawkstwelve]

Line ended up weakening a bit over Sioux Falls but we still managed the occasional lightning and thunder. More importantly, we scored 0.71 in the bucket - good for our highest measurable precip in a day since 8/6, almost two months ago. It was desperately needed! Now we get to enjoy a nice bout of cooler than normal temperatures before we look to warm back up again next week.

Certainly looking like October is shaping up to be a rollercoaster month, especially for temps. Might end up being fairly dynamic.

[Clinton]

A weakening line of storms brought .30 inches overnight with some additional scattered showers this morning. More rain is expected here this evening as the first cold front stalls nearby and a secondary low pressure forms along the front to my south. Not a bad trend and it will be interesting to see what it produces. 

[westMJim]

For the second day in a row new record highs have been set. Here is the updated records Houghton 86, Marquette 83,and  Sault Ste Marie 83 in the UP Alpena 87  Traverse City 88. Grand Rapids 86. Muskegon 85.  As the very warm start to October 2023 continues. While no new records were set at Detroit, Flint Saginaw and Lansing highs were in the mid 80’s

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 85/57. There was no rain fall and 100% of possible sunshine. There were 7 CDD’s For today the average H/L is now down to 66/46 the record high of 87 was set in 1951 and the record low of 30 was set in 1913 and 1965. The record rain fall amount of 1.28” fell in 1991. Last year the H/L was 72/37.

[Tom]

12 hours ago, jaster220 said:

So you're buying me that place in Tahoe I always dreamt of  

Tahoe is on my bucket list!  I haven't been there since the 90's when I was in High School on a ski trip.  Would love to go there this during an epic snow event.

[Hawkeye]

I put my gauge out late last night just in case we got a little something, but the line quickly vanished and the Cedar Rapids area got 0.00".  The GEFS/EPS still show a possible rain event across the midwest around Oct 13th, but there is a real possibility a blocked-up pattern suppresses everything south.  That is what the op Euro is showing.  The 06z GFS does that as well and keeps Cedar Rapids totally dry through at least Oct 20th.  This year has been awful for months and it just keeps getting worse.

[mlgamer]

Same old song and dance here. Only .07" of rain overnight with no substantial rain in the forecast for at least the next week or longer.

@Tom you could relocate here and notice no real differences from Arizona. Just sayin...

[Tom]

24 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Same old song and dance here. Only .07" of rain overnight with no substantial rain in the forecast for at least the next week or longer.

@Tom you could relocate here and notice no real differences from Arizona. Just sayin...

Sadly, your are is just not in the right spot but there is hope with the big block over Hudson Bay that storms will track into the Midwest later mid month.  This pattern will deliver moisture, I’m pretty confident you’ll score.  One thing I’m really excited about to experience in AZ are the winter storms up in Flagstaff and the White Mtns.  It can dump snow and something I’m itching to experience.  

[Niko]

One more day of summer-like weather and then reality returns w/ a vengeance. This weekend will definitely have Autumn conditions as an upper level low spins and gets cut off, along w/ chilly temps and scattered showers being around w a little sun trying to peak out from those mean looking clouds. Lows will be cold w/ readings failing into the 30s. Highs mainly in the low 50s, at best.

[Niko]

@Tom I am looking forward to seeing you in those snow pics from Flagstaff, AZ. They get walloped in the winter w those big winterstorms. You will definitely enjoy snow now. Great move!

[mlgamer]

53 minutes ago, Tom said:

Sadly, your are is just not in the right spot but there is hope with the big block over Hudson Bay that storms will track into the Midwest later mid month.  This pattern will deliver moisture, I’m pretty confident you’ll score.  One thing I’m really excited about to experience in AZ are the winter storms up in Flagstaff and the White Mtns.  It can dump snow and something I’m itching to experience.  

As a kid growing up in the KC area, we always had the adage that when it snowed in Flagstaff it would snow in KC a couple of days later and for the most part seemed generally true reflecting snowstorms moving out of the desert southwest into the plains.

Me and the family spent a night in Flagstaff in 2015 on the way to the Grand Canyon and Zion. Flagstaff was very picturesque with the smell of the Ponderosa Pines in the air. Hope you do get a chance to enjoy some healthy snow storms there!

[Tom]

34 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

As a kid growing up in the KC area, we always had the adage that when it snowed in Flagstaff it would snow in KC a couple of days later and for the most part seemed generally true reflecting snowstorms moving out of the desert southwest into the plains.

Me and the family spent a night in Flagstaff in 2015 on the way to the Grand Canyon and Zion. Flagstaff was very picturesque with the smell of the Ponderosa Pines in the air. Hope you do get a chance to enjoy some healthy snow storms there!

Yes, those pine trees give off a wonderful aroma and I absolutely love taking in deep breaths while outdoors or hiking.  I hope the aspen trees haven't turned color yet as I want to drive up to the ski resort and take some pics of the colors.  Anyhow, lets be patient and see how this new LRC sets up over the next number of weeks.

[Andie]

High of 90 today before the weather turns and we get some heavy rain tonight. 2-4” in areas.  
Low of 69 tonight. 
High tomorrow 81.  
Nice change.  🌧

 

[westMJim]

Record tied at Muskegon. With the current temperature of 83 that ties the record high at Muskegon. Also with the current temperature of 80 at Grand Rapids that makes 2023 the warmest start to any October at Grand Rapids and Muskegon and I am sure at other locations in Michigan was well. This is the 1^st time that the 1^st 4 days of October have been 80 or better at both locations. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Summer did not want to go away this year! Had several highs in a row in the mid-upper 80's to start off my October. I normally bask in 80 degree October weather where I used to live, but 2023 in the Ohio Valley has changed that. Thankfully our lows cool down just enough to not drive us crazy as we transition.

One more day >80 tomorrow, but a few degrees cooler and clouds are starting to move in as I type. 

[Andie]

We’re at 92*.  But the front is on our doorstep and is trying to fire off some T storms.   
We’ll see rain in the DFW area around 9pm. We could see 1 to 2” of rain in areas. And we need it.  

[Iowawx]

9 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

I put my gauge out late last night just in case we got a little something, but the line quickly vanished and the Cedar Rapids area got 0.00".  The GEFS/EPS still show a possible rain event across the midwest around Oct 13th, but there is a real possibility a blocked-up pattern suppresses everything south.  That is what the op Euro is showing.  The 06z GFS does that as well and keeps Cedar Rapids totally dry through at least Oct 20th.  This year has been awful for months and it just keeps getting worse.

Why do you think it has been so dry in Cedar Rapids this summer and now into fall? Are we just unable to get in on heavy rain here anymore? I feel like we have been missing out on the heaviest of rain and snow here for quite some time. It's so dry here, it's just getting ridiculous.

[Bryan1117]

We managed to pickup just over an inch of rain yesterday in Omaha… the storms weakened a bit as they moved in, however between the scattered showers and storms earlier during the day and the line of storms during the late evening hours we didn’t end up doing too bad.

Sucks for those off to our east and south though… this pattern remains so hit or miss for the Midwest.

[Hawkeye]

55 minutes ago, Iowawx said:

Why do you think it has been so dry in Cedar Rapids this summer and now into fall? Are we just unable to get in on heavy rain here anymore? I feel like we have been missing out on the heaviest of rain and snow here for quite some time. It's so dry here, it's just getting ridiculous.

It has just bad a lot of dry patterns combined with bad luck during the brief wet patterns.  Of course, once it gets going, drought and dry ground/air feed on each other.

[Andie]

Things are firing up NW of DFW. 
They’re forecasting hail 1-2” in some cells.  Heavy rain, flash flooding.  

[Iceresistance]

Rain has been crazy for me

[Andie]

Things are firing up NW of DFW. 
They’re forecasting hail 1-2” in some cells.  Heavy rain, flash flooding.  
 

Its 88 ahead of this thing.  

[OttumwaSnomow]

I give up..  I recorded .03 this am. Of over 333 locations  across Iowa again in the lowest 50 sites. Since aug 13 I have 1.66 inches. Again of 333 locations  im in lower 40 to 50 locations.  Its darn chronic here!!!!  Is this Southeast  Iowa which nearly year round is the wettest  part of Iowa based on closer to gulf of Mexico??? Throw out  all climatology    add up the numbers.  Stupid  hell hole here. Iowa has microclimates and I 100% know they exist. Ive been studying  them for 17 years.  80% of rain events  in growing season   all my friends is Oskaloosa  albia  ames madrid and many other iowa towns get more rain than Ottumwa.  Just a fact. A 17 yr fact. We are disbanding our mowing division.   Have averaged about 14 mowing a year since  the summer  of 2012 thats unreal!!!  It should be 24 to 29 mowing. We avg 13 pushes per commercial  snow site since 2014. Will stick to that and other contracting.  Im so done with Ottumwa  Iowa weather!!!!!

[Black Hole]

Been an interesting day here, worked a bunch of OT at the office to cover the severe weather. Bunch of hail (0.5-1") went by my house but I wasn't there to see it. Then 60-80 mph winds hit the northern part of the Tulsa metro. Lots of rain too. 1.66" at my house so far, others have had more. 

[Andie]

.  Dropped like a stone to 71.  Pretty big thunderstorm.  We lost power.  Some hail. Rained so hard you couldn’t see 75’.
Another wave or two to come.  A bouncy stormy night.  Love this rain!!

[Andie]

At 11 it’s 69 and light rain. More rain west of us.  This has been nice and much needed   

81 tomorrow with a light breeze. Nice change.  

[OKwx2k4]

This is really a pretty shocking late-forecast increase in potency of the first real cool shot of the season. Gonna have a little bite in it. 

 

[OKwx2k4]

1 hour ago, Andie said:

At 11 it’s 69 and light rain. More rain west of us.  This has been nice and much needed   

81 tomorrow with a light breeze. Nice change.  

I'm so glad the seasons have finally officially flipped for you and that your drought is ending.

[Clinton]

The streak of warmth and heat will end after today.  The top 5 streaks are all from 2002 to present.

One more warm day today with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 which will add one more day to the streak of consecutive days with highs above 70 before it comes to an end Friday. This will be the second longest stretch on the 136-year period of record for KC.

 

[Clinton]

@mlgamer maybe the tide will turn for us soon.  0z models both with the same idea for a storm next week and it looks like the trough in the middle of the country is going to be part of this years pattern and stick around for more than a few days.  @OttumwaSnomow I hope things improve for you I know exactly how frustrating it's been.

Look at that block!  Beautiful!!!

[Tom]

6 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

This is really a pretty shocking late-forecast increase in potency of the first real cool shot of the season. Gonna have a little bite in it. 

 

This is the FLIP you have always been thinking about and yearning for....Chicago had its warmest OCT 1st-4th open on record and its gonna be COLD this weekend with graupel in the forecast on FRI.

 

 

 

Speaking of the Cold temps on the way, up in the Northwoods of N Wisco and U.P., fall colors are at their peak!  Is that early or what? @Madtown

 

 

 

[Iceresistance]

@Andie
You alright? There was a possible tornado near Midlothian, TX.

[Tom]

27 minutes ago, Clinton said:

@mlgamer maybe the tide will turn for us soon.  0z models both with the same idea for a storm next week and it looks like the trough in the middle of the country is going to be part of this years pattern and stick around for more than a few days.  @OttumwaSnomow I hope things improve for you I know exactly how frustrating it's been.

Look at that block!  Beautiful!!!

"Midwest Mauler"...gotta a good feeling that this will be the  year of Bombs!

[Tom]

@Andie...this is going to FEEL refreshing!

[Hawkeye]

Exceptional drought has expanded over Cedar Rapids for the first time, ever (this map began in the late 90s).

[Madtown]

 Fall colors are past up here. weird year, no great color. Lots of trees went from pale color to brown and down in. 3 or 4 days. Pretty spot on with timing...last week of Sept to first week in Oct is peak.

[Tom]

Last nights moderate intensity rainfall was was exactly what the Hot Springs area needed to start putting a dent into the drought.  Every drop soaked into the soils around here since yesterday.  The local reporting station says we received just over 2" or rain, while those farther west over Texarkana got walloped with a band of 10-12"!