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October 2023 Observations and Discussion


gabel23

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6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

My great aunt moved from northwest IN to Hot Springs in the 1990s.  She was in her 80s then and wanted to get away to a warmer climate.  She seemed to like it there.

Anyway, congrats on your move to AZ.  I hope you'll still be a contributor to this "East of the Rockies" forum.  

Thanks...If I read correctly, it was formed back in 1970 when they broke ground in Feb 1970.  I think it really blossomed in the 90's when she came so it was prob a great experience for her.

5 hours ago, james1976 said:

Congrats @Tom. Will you be living in Arizona permanently? 

I will still be on here posting in our Sub Forum and not really making any adjustments to the western forum.  It has always been "home base" for me where it all began over 10 years ago.  

@Andie, not many colors here but I'm sure after the CF sweeps through later this week the colors will slowly begin to change.  It's amazing how high the hills can get around here and the steep winding roads are pretty wild!  I went to this place called Lake Lago Lookout and the views from my standpoint you could see miles and miles away.  The smells of the air and fresh pine are wonderful and it's a blessing how "dry" the air is around here right now.  

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5 hours ago, FV-Mike said:

Congrats Tom! The information you shared specifically for the Chicagoland area is the reason I joined the forum. Looking forward to seeing future updates.

 

5 hours ago, james1976 said:

Congrats @Tom. Will you be living in Arizona permanently? 

I have some plans I will be sharing with you all once they come into fruition.  It's been years in the making and a lot of hard work but its coming together.

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Last day of heat for awhile !!

Tuesday will be a warm, breezy, and dry day across North Texas. But big changes are on the horizon.🌧

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy with a 20% chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm after midnight. Low: 75. Wind: SE 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a 90% chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly later in the day. Low: 75. High: 87. Wind: E 5-15 mph. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Yesterday was indeed a very warm October day. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 85/47 that 85 is the new 2nd warmest ever on any October 2nd There was no rain fall and 100% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here in MBY this morning is 55. For today the average H/L is 67/47 the record high of 85 was set in 1900,1919 and 1953 the record low of 23 was set in 1974 the most rain fall was 3.59” in 1954. Last year the H/L was 68/34.

There were several record highs set yesterday mostly in the UP and norther Lower Michigan. Records set were 83 at Muskegon, 85 at Alpena, 87 at Marquette and 83 at Sault Ste Marie. The 83 at the Sault is also a record high for the month of October and that 87 ties the record at Marquette.

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29 minutes ago, Andie said:

Last day of heat for awhile !!

Tuesday will be a warm, breezy, and dry day across North Texas. But big changes are on the horizon.🌧

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy with a 20% chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm after midnight. Low: 75. Wind: SE 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a 90% chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly later in the day. Low: 75. High: 87. Wind: E 5-15 mph. 

Tomorrow could be crazy for me

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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Happy Red October to those who celebrate! The Phillies should have perfect unseasonably warm weather. Weather wise we are very similar to exactly 16 years ago today back in 2007 when the Phillies played their 1st post season game since 1993. For those 2 games at home high temps in Philly were in the 80's. Here in East Nantmeal we recorded highs of 78.6 and 79.6 on the 3rd and 4th. Hopefully the results are different as the Phillies were swept in 3 games by the Rockies.
Our Indian Summer weather should continue through the week before a sharp turn to well below normal by the weekend. High temperatures both Sunday and Monday may not escape the mid-50's.
Records for today: High 91 (1919) / Low 26 (1899) / Rain 1.21" (1985) GO PHILLIES!
image.png.815ac0096e432611142227d1ab3fa1ed.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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1 hour ago, gabel23 said:

The opening to the new LRC season??????? Nice cold dump into the central parts of the US. Good to see the NAO in the negative side. Corresponds pretty well with the long range showing lots of blocking. 

F7hHt9JXQAEKits.png

ao.gefs.sprd2-1.png

nao.gefs.sprd2.png

I'm keeping my fingers crossed for some rain tonight and tomorrow and EAX is mentioning frost this weekend as the cold air gets pulled down. Temps will be Halloween like over the weekend. 

image.png.5564821f5ea9b4f76652beca08f29e72.png

 

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16 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Storms on my doorstep. Central Nebraska getting rocked. IMG_1682.thumb.png.bd4058031c890dd03dc4a259b375ebf0.png

There is a Tornadic Supercell coming your way!

Tornado Warning
NEC061-099-032215-
/O.NEW.KGID.TO.W.0025.231003T2140Z-231003T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Hastings NE
440 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

The National Weather Service in Hastings has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northwestern Franklin County in south central Nebraska...
  Southern Kearney County in south central Nebraska...

* Until 515 PM CDT.

* At 440 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Hildreth, or 18 miles southeast of Holdrege,
  moving northeast at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Minden around 455 PM CDT.
  Norman around 500 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Hastings.



LAT...LON 4050 9903 4049 9882 4048 9874 4022 9897
      4028 9918 4032 9918
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 221DEG 42KT 4033 9905

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN
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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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41 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

There is a Tornadic Supercell coming your way!

Tornado Warning
NEC061-099-032215-
/O.NEW.KGID.TO.W.0025.231003T2140Z-231003T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Hastings NE
440 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

The National Weather Service in Hastings has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northwestern Franklin County in south central Nebraska...
  Southern Kearney County in south central Nebraska...

* Until 515 PM CDT.

* At 440 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Hildreth, or 18 miles southeast of Holdrege,
  moving northeast at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Minden around 455 PM CDT.
  Norman around 500 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Hastings.



LAT...LON 4050 9903 4049 9882 4048 9874 4022 9897
      4028 9918 4032 9918
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 221DEG 42KT 4033 9905

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN

Appears it may have weakened according to local weather reports. It is 5:00 and it seems like nighttime, very dark. 

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6 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Appears it may have weakened according to local weather reports. It is 5:00 and it seems likely like nighttime, very dark. 

Take a picture or film if you can!

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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23 hours ago, Tom said:

 

I have some plans I will be sharing with you all once they come into fruition.  It's been years in the making and a lot of hard work but its coming together.

So you're buying me that place in Tahoe I always dreamt of  😎

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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7 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

This total fell in 15 minutes. IMG_1687.thumb.png.5b3383a0b64659c341b9e8256af640d9.png

Yeah, that's a slight drop I'd say

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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We’ll have a high of 89 tomorrow 

Low of 68 with a 90% chance of rain.  
Sounds good to me!
High Thursday and Friday 80 !  

Looks like Fall has arrived.  
High Saturday will be 72!!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Line ended up weakening a bit over Sioux Falls but we still managed the occasional lightning and thunder. More importantly, we scored 0.71 in the bucket - good for our highest measurable precip in a day since 8/6, almost two months ago. It was desperately needed! Now we get to enjoy a nice bout of cooler than normal temperatures before we look to warm back up again next week.

Certainly looking like October is shaping up to be a rollercoaster month, especially for temps. Might end up being fairly dynamic.

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A weakening line of storms brought .30 inches overnight with some additional scattered showers this morning. More rain is expected here this evening as the first cold front stalls nearby and a secondary low pressure forms along the front to my south. Not a bad trend and it will be interesting to see what it produces. 

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For the second day in a row new record highs have been set. Here is the updated records Houghton 86, Marquette 83,and  Sault Ste Marie 83 in the UP Alpena 87  Traverse City 88. Grand Rapids 86. Muskegon 85.  As the very warm start to October 2023 continues. While no new records were set at Detroit, Flint Saginaw and Lansing highs were in the mid 80’s

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 85/57. There was no rain fall and 100% of possible sunshine. There were 7 CDD’s For today the average H/L is now down to 66/46 the record high of 87 was set in 1951 and the record low of 30 was set in 1913 and 1965. The record rain fall amount of 1.28” fell in 1991. Last year the H/L was 72/37.

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12 hours ago, jaster220 said:

So you're buying me that place in Tahoe I always dreamt of  😎

Tahoe is on my bucket list!  I haven't been there since the 90's when I was in High School on a ski trip.  Would love to go there this during an epic snow event.

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I put my gauge out late last night just in case we got a little something, but the line quickly vanished and the Cedar Rapids area got 0.00".  The GEFS/EPS still show a possible rain event across the midwest around Oct 13th, but there is a real possibility a blocked-up pattern suppresses everything south.  That is what the op Euro is showing.  The 06z GFS does that as well and keeps Cedar Rapids totally dry through at least Oct 20th.  This year has been awful for months and it just keeps getting worse.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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24 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Same old song and dance here. Only .07" of rain overnight with no substantial rain in the forecast for at least the next week or longer.

@Tom you could relocate here and notice no real differences from Arizona. Just sayin...🥴

Sadly, your are is just not in the right spot but there is hope with the big block over Hudson Bay that storms will track into the Midwest later mid month.  This pattern will deliver moisture, I’m pretty confident you’ll score.  One thing I’m really excited about to experience in AZ are the winter storms up in Flagstaff and the White Mtns.  It can dump snow and something I’m itching to experience.  

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One more day of summer-like weather and then reality returns w/ a vengeance. This weekend will definitely have Autumn conditions as an upper level low spins and gets cut off, along w/ chilly temps and scattered showers being around w a little sun trying to peak out from those mean looking clouds. Lows will be cold w/ readings failing into the 30s. Highs mainly in the low 50s, at best.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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@Tom I am looking forward to seeing you in those snow pics from Flagstaff, AZ. They get walloped in the winter w those big winterstorms. You will definitely enjoy snow now. Great move!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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53 minutes ago, Tom said:

Sadly, your are is just not in the right spot but there is hope with the big block over Hudson Bay that storms will track into the Midwest later mid month.  This pattern will deliver moisture, I’m pretty confident you’ll score.  One thing I’m really excited about to experience in AZ are the winter storms up in Flagstaff and the White Mtns.  It can dump snow and something I’m itching to experience.  

As a kid growing up in the KC area, we always had the adage that when it snowed in Flagstaff it would snow in KC a couple of days later and for the most part seemed generally true reflecting snowstorms moving out of the desert southwest into the plains.

Me and the family spent a night in Flagstaff in 2015 on the way to the Grand Canyon and Zion. Flagstaff was very picturesque with the smell of the Ponderosa Pines in the air. Hope you do get a chance to enjoy some healthy snow storms there!

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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34 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

As a kid growing up in the KC area, we always had the adage that when it snowed in Flagstaff it would snow in KC a couple of days later and for the most part seemed generally true reflecting snowstorms moving out of the desert southwest into the plains.

Me and the family spent a night in Flagstaff in 2015 on the way to the Grand Canyon and Zion. Flagstaff was very picturesque with the smell of the Ponderosa Pines in the air. Hope you do get a chance to enjoy some healthy snow storms there!

Yes, those pine trees give off a wonderful aroma and I absolutely love taking in deep breaths while outdoors or hiking.  I hope the aspen trees haven't turned color yet as I want to drive up to the ski resort and take some pics of the colors.  Anyhow, lets be patient and see how this new LRC sets up over the next number of weeks.

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High of 90 today before the weather turns and we get some heavy rain tonight. 2-4” in areas.  
Low of 69 tonight. 
High tomorrow 81.  
Nice change.  🌧

 

E224F3E4-5D9E-43C4-9A70-83E874D885A8.jpeg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Record tied at Muskegon. With the current temperature of 83 that ties the record high at Muskegon. Also with the current temperature of 80 at Grand Rapids that makes 2023 the warmest start to any October at Grand Rapids and Muskegon and I am sure at other locations in Michigan was well. This is the 1st time that the 1st 4 days of October have been 80 or better at both locations. 

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Summer did not want to go away this year! Had several highs in a row in the mid-upper 80's to start off my October. I normally bask in 80 degree October weather where I used to live, but 2023 in the Ohio Valley has changed that. Thankfully our lows cool down just enough to not drive us crazy as we transition.

One more day >80 tomorrow, but a few degrees cooler and clouds are starting to move in as I type. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 26
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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We’re at 92*.  But the front is on our doorstep and is trying to fire off some T storms.   
We’ll see rain in the DFW area around 9pm. We could see 1 to 2” of rain in areas. And we need it.  

6EE3BBC1-2836-4BBC-928B-486ACEB015A2.jpeg

C053807C-B5DB-46C7-883E-DC749180B843.jpeg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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9 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

I put my gauge out late last night just in case we got a little something, but the line quickly vanished and the Cedar Rapids area got 0.00".  The GEFS/EPS still show a possible rain event across the midwest around Oct 13th, but there is a real possibility a blocked-up pattern suppresses everything south.  That is what the op Euro is showing.  The 06z GFS does that as well and keeps Cedar Rapids totally dry through at least Oct 20th.  This year has been awful for months and it just keeps getting worse.

Why do you think it has been so dry in Cedar Rapids this summer and now into fall? Are we just unable to get in on heavy rain here anymore? I feel like we have been missing out on the heaviest of rain and snow here for quite some time. It's so dry here, it's just getting ridiculous.

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