October 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

@Andie, ain’t it a wonderful evening tonight?  You could feel the temps dropping and breezes picking up this evening.  My cousin told me this is the first time he will need a sweater since April!  Crazy that I’m here in Dallas right when the first real cold front hit the area.

[jaster220]

Over an inch here GRR's map

[Andie]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

@Andie, ain’t it a wonderful evening tonight?  You could feel the temps dropping and breezes picking up this evening.  My cousin told me this is the first time he will need a sweater since April!  Crazy that I’m here in Dallas right when the first real cold front hit the area.

After this summer it almost feels unreal to be cool.  This has been a hard year with no mercy on the heat.  We’re all wondering what kind of winter Mother Nature will throw at us?

[westMJim]

The official HL yesterday at Grand Rapids was 63/44, there was 0.93” of rain fall. The sun was out 35% of the possible time. There were 11 HDD’s the highest wind speed was 32 MPH out of the W. For today the average H/L is 65/45 the record high of 87 was set in 1951 and the record low of 25 was set in 1964. The record rain fall amount of 1.27” fell in 1951 the most snow fall was a reported 0.1” in 2000. Last year the H/L was 50/36. Here in MBY I recorded 1.12” of rain fall since 7 AM yesterday. The current temperature is 43 with partly cloudy skies.

[Clinton]

Heavy rainfall continues to look likely next week from mby on north.  Some models are also indicating a legit severe risk along the dry line for eastern Kansas and western MO  as well as Oklahoma depending on the track of the low.  WPC showing some lofty rainfall totals.

[Clinton]

Chilly morning for me with some scattered frost.  Temps may dip another degree but it's currently 37. It will feel like football weather today, I'm headed to COMO to watch Mizzou play LSU.

[Niko]

It will be mighty cold tanite as temps drop into the 30s w the possibility of Frost and Freeze advisories. As @jaster220 mentioned in his post, (look below) NOAA has S MI included. I will definitely have to switch my AC now to heat. Brrrr.

[Niko]

Thunderstorms.....still in the forecast here in mby in October.

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
349 AM EDT Sat Oct 7 2023

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-080800-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
349 AM EDT Sat Oct 7 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a very low chance for thunderstorm development this
afternoon and evening. Wind gusts to 35 mph and pea size hail will be
possible with any thunderstorms observed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

[chescowxman]

We have picked up 0.17" of rain so far here in East Nantmeal with the first line of showers. The 2nd line of additional rain with the main cold front should pass through from west to east and be through the county during the noon hour. Temps will fall the rest of the day with temps down into the 50's by 1pm and the 40's by 9pm this evening. Clearing skies later today. Chillier than normal weather should continue for most of the next week with our next chances of rain toward Thursday evening. Go Phillies!

Records for today: High 90 (1941) / Low 27 (1923) / Rain 1.48" (1965)

[hawkstwelve]

Next week is looking very north/south dependent in terms of temps. The dividing line looks to be around I-80. That is until another reinforcing cold shot hits the majority of us east of the Rockies later in the week and next weekend.

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks like most areas around me in Central Nebraska dropped down to between 28-32 degrees this morning. I’ve seen local reports that my town was 30-32 depending on temp. gauge and location. 

[Hawkeye]

Ugh!  The 12z GFS has moved next week's big system much farther north, dumping heavy rain on SD and MN, but also screwing much of Iowa.  Nebraska and Iowa need this storm.

[Black Hole]

I ended up at 42 this morning. 39F at the Tulsa airport and I saw a 33F in one spot in northeast OK. 

[Hawkeye]

5 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

I ended up at 42 this morning. 39F at the Tulsa airport and I saw a 33F in one spot in northeast OK. 

Wow!  It seems unusual for Oklahoma to get its first 30s on the same night as Cedar Rapids... and CR only dipped to 39º.

[Hawkeye]

The GEFS has shifted north, but not nearly as far as the op run.

[Andie]

Beautiful sunny day.  High of 70.  
81 Tomorrow. We’ll warm through the week till Thurs/Fri with a 20% chance of rain and a front.   78 High on Thursday.  

[Andie]

Don’t forget. Next Saturday we will have a n Annular Solar Eclipse.  Best seen in the Southwest, you can follow it online.  
https://www.space.com/news/live/solar-eclipse-live-updates

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro

[Black Hole]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Wow!  It seems unusual for Oklahoma to get its first 30s on the same night as Cedar Rapids... and CR only dipped to 39º.

I think it's a testament to how not-cold it's been lol. 

[Hawkeye]

12z EPS... not much change.

[hawkstwelve]

Nice looking storm out in la la land on the 00z GFS.

Come back in a couple months, will ya?

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 55/41. There were numerous lake effect rain showers that dropped 0.13” of rain fall. There were 17 HDD’s the highest wind speed was 31MPH out of the NW. the sun was out 34% of the time. For today the average H/L is 64/45 the record high of 88 was set in 2007 and the record low of 28 was set in 1989. The record rain fall amount of 1.00” fell in 2021. There have been several years with a trace of snow fall.

With a official low of at least 38 the overnight was the coldest low at Grand Rapids since May 26. Here in MBY the overnight low was 36 with clouds there was no frost. At the current time it is cloudy and 37 here in MBY.

[Clinton]

6 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Nice looking storm out in la la land on the 00z GFS.

Come back in a couple months, will ya?

6z GFS has some of those frozen chunks of water near you next week.

[Hawkeye]

Even the Euro is now trending north with the strong low later this week.  What models are showing is there will initially be a bunch of rain and storms along a front to my south, then all the action will jump north, into northern Iowa or even farther north, as the low moves through Iowa.  While models still drop good rain here, I'm concerned the two waves of rain will mostly go south and north of me, with less in between.

[jaster220]

Blob-o-Blue in ONT this morning:

[OKwx2k4]

18 hours ago, Black Hole said:

I think it's a testament to how not-cold it's been lol. 

Going from a close of September at near record highs to the first frosts here only a week away from our record first is really crazy. 

This cold shot the 14th looks to rival a lot I have seen in October as well. 

Definitely arrived with a crash. I love it. 

[jaster220]

Not sure if there was any lower temps or frost in the countryside west of here, but even DTW touched the 30's briefly this morning:

[jaster220]

I was up in the Jordan River Valley region of NWMI yesterday afternoon. Temps were in the 40's with nasty cold on/off LER squalls pounding all day. I'd guess W/C's were in the 39-40F range. It bit right through ya after the week of 70's & 80's we just had back home.

One cool thing. There was a Bald Eagle soaring below us. Not often you can say that in (mostly) flat ole LP of Michigan. 

[Black Hole]

11 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Going from a close of September at near record highs to the first frosts here only a week away from our record first is really crazy. 

This cold shot the 14th looks to rival a lot I have seen in October as well. 

Definitely arrived with a crash. I love it. 

The near surface airmass will be at least as cold. It looks pretty dry, but also it looks to hold on for a few days instead of immediately reverting to southerly flow. So yeah, we should really get a nice stretch of cooler days here. 

[Tom]

Good morning from Dallas, TX!  It's a chilly 53F with clear skies but we are quickly heading up to near 80F.  Drove around town yesterday and visited some of the historic places...#RIP JFK.

 

 

[chescowxman]

Following the cold front yesterday we have fallen to our coldest reading (44.2) since back on May 31st (44.1). Temperatures over the next 2 days will be typical for Early November. We should warm back up closer to normal for much of the upcoming work week. We should be dry mos of the week with our next rain chances by Friday.

Records for today: High 85 (1916) / Low 28 (1904) / Rain 4.35" (2005)

[Andie]

24 minutes ago, Tom said:

Good morning from Dallas, TX!  It's a chilly 53F with clear skies but we are quickly heading up to near 80F.  Drove around town yesterday and visited some of the historic places...#RIP JFK.

 

 

Enjoy Texas, Tom.  Tons to see.  

[jaster220]

I'm a little stoked about finding a Cocorahs reporting station just 1/2 mi NW of my place. Here's rainfall late this week, confirming my earlier post of 1+ inches for mby:

I was hoping to compare my snow total for the March 3rd storm, but unfortunately there was about 4 days of "No Obs" right during that week/event. We lost power during the storm, but not before, so I'm not sure if it was related or not?

[Madtown]

well no snow Friday night chance of flakes tonight we shall  see. Should have flakes in the next couple of weeks to be average

[Hawkeye]

The model trend is making me want to punch through a wall.  The worst-case scenario is now on the table for Cedar Rapids.  Models are trending toward dropping a bunch of rain along the front down in southern Iowa and northern Missouri, then leaping the front well north ahead of the main low, which now cuts up into Minnesota and drops heavy rain from South Dakota to the northern lakes.  The Euro just took a massive jump north and badly screws the northern half of Iowa.  Instead of two days of rain and storms totaling possibly 3+ inches, we now get one brief band of rain along the cold front as the powerful storm sweeps through the region.  It's absolutely unbelievable how awful 2023 is.  I'm way beyond sick of it.

[Niko]

Looks like very wet weather moving in late next week. Temps remain chilly all of next week as well.

[james1976]

4 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The model trend is making me want to punch through a wall.  The worst-case scenario is now on the table for Cedar Rapids.  Models are trending toward dropping a bunch of rain along the front down in southern Iowa and northern Missouri, then leaping the front well north ahead of the main low, which now cuts up into Minnesota and drops heavy rain from South Dakota to the northern lakes.  The Euro just took a massive jump north and badly screws the northern half of Iowa.  Instead of two days of rain and storms totaling possibly 3+ inches, we now get one brief band of rain along the cold front as the powerful storm sweeps through the region.  It's absolutely unbelievable how awful 2023 is.  I'm way beyond sick of it.

I didn't see the 12z run but 18z looked pretty solid for Iowa. 

[Clinton]

18z GEFS looks solid for Iowa. 

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The model trend is making me want to punch through a wall.  The worst-case scenario is now on the table for Cedar Rapids.  Models are trending toward dropping a bunch of rain along the front down in southern Iowa and northern Missouri, then leaping the front well north ahead of the main low, which now cuts up into Minnesota and drops heavy rain from South Dakota to the northern lakes.  The Euro just took a massive jump north and badly screws the northern half of Iowa.  Instead of two days of rain and storms totaling possibly 3+ inches, we now get one brief band of rain along the cold front as the powerful storm sweeps through the region.  It's absolutely unbelievable how awful 2023 is.  I'm way beyond sick of it.

 

2 hours ago, james1976 said:

I didn't see the 12z run but 18z looked pretty solid for Iowa. 

 

14 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z GEFS looks solid for Iowa. 

I hate drought as much or more than anyone, so I get his frustration, especially with model waffling. Still, riding the OP at this range is asking for trouble IMHO. Not to mention seasonal climo would indeed favor the further north tier scoring big. Glad to see the GEFS runs - thx for posting. Imagine if some event could cover that area but converted to snow. Would rival all-time historic snowstorm status!

[OttumwaSnomow]

6 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The model trend is making me want to punch through a wall.  The worst-case scenario is now on the table for Cedar Rapids.  Models are trending toward dropping a bunch of rain along the front down in southern Iowa and northern Missouri, then leaping the front well north ahead of the main low, which now cuts up into Minnesota and drops heavy rain from South Dakota to the northern lakes.  The Euro just took a massive jump north and badly screws the northern half of Iowa.  Instead of two days of rain and storms totaling possibly 3+ inches, we now get one brief band of rain along the cold front as the powerful storm sweeps through the region.  It's absolutely unbelievable how awful 2023 is.  I'm way beyond sick of it.

Ottumwa  will more than likely  be dry slotted.  If I get any heavy rain it will be with the warm front.  Wrap around will be light.    We desperately  need 3 plus  inches of rain. Probably  wont happen.

[OKwx2k4]

15 hours ago, Black Hole said:

The near surface airmass will be at least as cold. It looks pretty dry, but also it looks to hold on for a few days instead of immediately reverting to southerly flow. So yeah, we should really get a nice stretch of cooler days here. 

Looking ahead, we're headed for a setup that produces phasing storms if we don't end up with an overpowering polar jet or STJ. 

I love what I'm seeing ahead.

ENSO is trying its last surge in 1.2 but I'm pretty sure it won't reach where it was back in July. This means there will probably be another warm-ish spell as Oct closes and November opens, but it'll be awesome after. 

[Andie]

It’s not unusual to have a late spell in October.  Even November can be warm this far south.   
Yesterday was gorgeous.  It was nice being outside in the afternoon and not suffocating from heat and humidity.   
I’m really glad this summer is behind us. 
High of 89 today. Sweet.  

[Clinton]

Near perfect fall weather here today and tomorrow. Rain chances later in the week are not looking good for mby.

[Andie]

While No Tx will see a high of 91 Thursday, we will have temps in the 80’s with this next weekend in the high 70’s.  
Yesterday was gorgeous.  

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday was 55/37 There were several lake effect rain showers. One of the showers had wind gust of up to 45 MPH. Between showers there was 40% of possible sunshine. The day had 19 HDD’s For today the average H/L is down to 64/44 the record high of 84 was set in 1939 and 2018 the record low of 23 was set in 1989. The record rain fall amount of 2.58” fell in 1958 and the record snow fall was a trace in 1945. Last year the H/L was 65/36 and there was a trace of rain fall.

With a current temperature of 35 and clear skies there is some light frost here in MBY.

[chescowxman]

Quite a few of the lower spots in the county reached the mid to upper 30's this AM. We did reach 40.3 here in East Nantmeal good for our chilliest reading since the 35.9 back on May 18. Great autumnal weather on the way this week with below normal temps for much of the next week across the County. Highs today will remain well below normal in the 50's today but moderate to the low to mid 60's by Thursday. Rain looks likely to arrive by Friday night into Saturday.

Records for today: High 87 (1905) / Low 26 (1929) / Rain 2.50" (1903)

[jaster220]

Some blue returns over the Huron Mnts in western Yooperland. First flakes in Michigan for the season?

[Iceresistance]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Some blue returns over the Huron Mnts in western Yooperland. First flakes in Michigan for the season?

Confirmed accumulations of snow in the mountains.

[james1976]

Forecast for Friday up here in the TC is rain, windy and 50 for a high. Local mets are calling for 1-2" from Thursday-Saturday. We'll see if the rain shield makes it this far north. Gonna be a lot of leaves coming down. Early next week looks below normal with low 50s. Fall smacked us in the face once October hit.

[Andie]

I’m hearing talk of severe weather in No Tx Wednesday or Thursday.  
Is that fact or fiction?