October 2023 Observations and Discussion

[chescowxman]

We have had a very warm start here to October with high temperatures ranging from the upper 70's to low 80's across the County. Today and the next couple of days will continue that trend. However, we will see a sharp turn to much cooler than normal temperatures by the weekend. We may see temps across the higher spots of Chester County remaining in the low 50's on Sunday. We should see below normal autumnal temps continuing for most of next week. We will see rain chances ramping up by Friday evening continuing through Saturday AM.

Go Phillies!

Records for today: High 94 (1941) / Low 28 (1965) / Rain 2.04" (1902)

[westMJim]

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 82/60. That is the 1st time in recorded history that Grand Rapids had 4 days in a row of 80 or better to start the month of October. A new record high of 84 was set at Muskegon. For today the average H/L is 66/46 the record high of 85 was set in 1900, 1922 and 1946 while the record low of 29 was set in 1965 and 2004. The record rain fall amount of 1.72” fell in 2013. So far today here in MBY I have recorded 0.86” of rain fall the current temperature in MBY is 64.

[Iceresistance]

I got 2.9 inches from the main event.

 

In total, I got 3.1 inches because of a surprise .2 from outflow boundary storms.

[Andie]

3 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

@Andie
You alright? There was a possible tornado near Midlothian, TX.

That’s a good ways away to the SE.  

Storm packed a punch. Golf course has lost a 2nd tree this year.  It snapped off about 2’ from the ground. Amazing.  
It was a hit and run storm though. I’d prefer a long slow day of rain! 

[Tom]

On the topic of high lat blocking and what I'm expecting to see as we close out OCT, it's that time of year when I start paying attn to the strat warming pools.  The region that draws my attn, is where the warming has begun and rolls through the end of the animations below.  Looking up towards Alaska/N Pole and up/down the west coast of North America is where I'd expecting ridging/blocking to hold strong.  The deep blues showing up over Eastern N. A. and a "tongue" into the southern part of the U.S. looks to me that the #STJ will be active. All of this should be an indication of a deep trough setting up by the week of the 22nd.  I'm expecting a very cold forecast to close out OCT for the eastern CONUS.  Positive signs for possible "first flakes" for parts of the N and E Sub Forum.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Andie]

4 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

@Andie
You alright? There was a possible tornado near Midlothian, TX.

Midlothian is way SE of me.  Modest sized town. Hope no one hurt.  
We got high winds. Some trees damaged or lost altogether. If there was circulation aloft I didn’t hear about it. I’m SW of Ft Worth but in the same county.  
As I’m near a lake the rising moisture affects our weather. Luckily the hail usually hit east of me but not always.  

[Niko]

Showers have arrived and now temps begin to fall. This weekend will be a chilly one. Low 50s for highs at best and 30s for lows. There could be a Frost Advisory for some. Stay tuned!!! Next week we warm to near 60F but back into the 50s all week.

[Timmy Supercell]

I'm liking what's coming on the radar!

[mlgamer]

The drought monitor map continues to be a mess for central, southern and southwest areas. @Clinton (and others) have mentioned some hope that a wetter pattern may begin soon so hopefully improvement is on the way.

 

[Iceresistance]

6 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

The drought monitor map continues to be a mess for central, southern and southwest areas. @Clinton (and others) have mentioned some hope that a wetter pattern may begin soon so hopefully improvement is on the way.

 

The huge rainfall from Central Oklahoma south to Texas was not counted this week, but will next week.

[CentralNebWeather]

[Tom]

24 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

When is the avg first freeze?

[Tom]

It certainly was a big soaking rain for the Texarkana Region of the south....the local reporting station was pretty accurate by me with the 2" mark right over Hot Springs, AR.

[Tom]

@Clinton @mlgamer That would hurt if I had to look south and this was a Blitz that nailed KC up to DTX!  This storm showing up mid next week is going to be a signature storm track IMHO as we roll through this season.  It'll be a corridor or exhibit of the new LRC pattern.  The data I'm seeing as we progress into late Fall/early Winter is going to be ideally centered in this region.  I don't expect to see much, if any, hard cutters this coming winter.  No signs of a SER...but definite LR signs of bowling balls, CO Low's and Miller B Storms.

 

 

[Tom]

Went up a scenic drive near Hot Springs National park…low clouds finally cleared up for some better viz.  In the video I said it’s a water tower but i misspoke bc there is  a tower where you can pay and go farther up to get better views.

 

 

 

 

 

[gabel23]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

When is the avg first freeze?

Typically around the 15th for my area, probably a week earlier for central Nebraska. I’m hoping I don’t see a hard freeze because my tomato plants are still going strong! Looks like right now a low right around freezing, they might survive that….

[westMJim]

It is starting to clear here now. The total rain fall here in MBY for this event is now at 0.89" the current temperature with clear skies in 63.

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

When is the avg first freeze?

Typically in the first 10 days of October for my area. 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, westMJim said:

It is starting to clear here now. The total rain fall here in MBY for this event is now at 0.89" the current temperature with clear skies in 63.

As of 7:53 pm KDTW was up to .67" qpf and that's significantly above the .25-.5" in their morning forecast map. Here about 10 miles NNW I'd say easily over .75" fell. Large puddles were all over the roads this evening. Tipping the scales for Cedar Rapids as this continues a streak of over-achievers when it comes to liquid events this summer. This sudden ramp-up was an unexpected surprise. Between the gusty winds and heavier rainfall with temps about 20 degrees lower than last evening it was very autumn f'real. Lots of leafs coming down along with the rain drops. Heck, I've seen less impressive hurricaine remnants tbh. 

[Clinton]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

@Clinton @mlgamer That would hurt if I had to look south and this was a Blitz that nailed KC up to DTX!  This storm showing up mid next week is going to be a signature storm track IMHO as we roll through this season.  It'll be a corridor or exhibit of the new LRC pattern.  The data I'm seeing as we progress into late Fall/early Winter is going to be ideally centered in this region.  I don't expect to see much, if any, hard cutters this coming winter.  No signs of a SER...but definite LR signs of bowling balls, CO Low's and Miller B Storms.

 

 

This part of the pattern sure looks promising, and the strength of the upcoming storm for October is very encouraging should it verify.

[Madtown]

So your saying there's a chance

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Welcome to fall 2023!

 

[Andie]

A low of 51 Saturday night!  Our first night this Fall so seasonably cool. 
It’s Fall Baby!  
From our local Met/NBC:

“A cold front will push into North Texas this evening. This front will bring a breezy north wind (up to 20 mph) and cooler temperatures. By Saturday morning, temperatures will be down into the 50s (even some 40s possible to the north). It will remain quite cool/brisk through Saturday morning, despite full sunshine. Saturday's high of 70 will make it the coolest day in nearly six months!   Next week will warm back above normal with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 through Thursday”

NBC/DFW

[Up_north_MI]

Snow showers in my point n click forecast here in northern lower MI for Saturday night and Sunday morning, it’s pretty common for this time of year actually.  

[CentralNebWeather]

[Tom]

9 hours ago, Clinton said:

This part of the pattern sure looks promising, and the strength of the upcoming storm for October is very encouraging should it verify.

Could this be the "slot"???  You gotta be a bit stoked where the blocking is setting up and the potential where the storms track/intensify over the Sub.

 

0z Euro...Say Hello to my lil friend...our Colorado Low!  #ShareTheWealth

[Clinton]

5 minutes ago, Tom said:

Could this be the "slot"???  You gotta be a bit stoked where the blocking is setting up and the potential where the storms track/intensify over the Sub.

 

0z Euro...Say Hello to my lil friend...our Colorado Low!  #ShareTheWealth

I love the looks of this part of the pattern especially for potential snow storms.  The EPS and GEFS show a little nortward trend. I hope @OttumwaSnomowand @Hawkeye get some rain out of this.  Also some potential should the more southerly solutions verify that @CentralNebWeathercould see some wet flakes.

[Clinton]

A very early frost advisory for mby.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
257 AM CDT Fri Oct 6 2023

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>005-011>014-020>022-028>030-037-038-
043-044-053-054-061600-
/O.NEW.KEAX.FR.Y.0004.231007T0800Z-231007T1400Z/
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-
Johnson KS-Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Holt-Andrew-
De Kalb-Daviess-Buchanan-Clinton-Caldwell-Platte-Clay-Ray-Jackson-
Lafayette-Cass-Johnson MO-Bates-Henry-
Including the cities of Atchison, Paola, Osawatomie, Louisburg,
Pleasanton, La Cygne, Mound City, Wathena, Elwood, Troy,
Highland, Fort Leavenworth, Leavenworth, Lansing,
Kansas City Kansas, Overland Park, Stanley, Olathe, Shawnee,
Lenexa, Tarkio, Rock Port, Fairfax, Maryville, Grant City,
Albany, Stanberry, King City, Bethany, Oregon, Maitland,
Forest City, Craig, Savannah, Country Club Villa, Maysville,
Stewartsville, Osborn, Union Star, Clarksdale, Gallatin,
Jamesport, St. Joseph Airport, St. Joseph, Cameron, Plattsburg,
Lathrop, Hamilton, Braymer, Polo, Breckenridge, Parkville,
Platte City, Riverside, Weatherby Lake, Weston, Gladstone,
Liberty, Excelsior Springs, Kearney, Richmond, Lawson,
Kansas City, Independence, Odessa, Higginsville, Lexington,
Concordia, Belton, Raymore, Harrisonville, Pleasant Hill,
Warrensburg, Butler, Adrian, Rich Hill, Clinton, and Windsor
257 AM CDT Fri Oct 6 2023

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 35 will result in frost
  formation.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and
  north central, northwest and west central Missouri.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left
  uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

[CentralNebWeather]

Beautiful morning. 46 degrees, raining sideways, with winds gusting to 35 mph. We have varsity football tonight at Gothenburg. We spent last night finding our coats, stocking caps, gloves and blankets. We haven’t had a game this season where you even had to wear a jacket or sweatshirt. That abruptly changes this evening. 

[chescowxman]

These first 5 days of October have been the 21st warmest start to the month since 1894. See top 20 below. However, a sharp change to below normal begins tomorrow. In fact today looks to be the last day that reaches 70 degrees for at least a couple weeks and possibly until next spring, Temps by Sunday and Monday will remain in the unseasonably chilly 50's by day and low 40's at night.

Some showers can be around today with steadier rain overnight tonight with the cold frontal passage.

Records for today: High 94 (1900) / Low 28 (1965) / Rain 2.00" (1932)

First 5 days of October
Rank	Year	Avg. Temp
1	1898	73.1
2	1941	73.1
3	1954	71.9
4	1959	70.3
5	2002	70.2
6	1951	70.0
7	1927	69.3
8	1900	69.0
9	1926	68.8
10	1986	68.6
11	2013	68.31
12	1922	68.2
13	1919	67.4
14	1931	67.1
15	2018	66.96
16	1905	66.6
17	1910	66.6
18	2007	66.6
19	1932	66.1
20	1991	66.1

[westMJim]

The official high yesterday was 73 just after midnight the low was 60. There was 1.12” of rain, here in MBY I recorded 0.89” of rain. The highest wind speed was 33mph out of the w. There was no sunshine. For today the average H/L is 65/45. The record high of 87 was set in 2007 and the record low of 28 was set in 1964 and 2003. The record rain fall of 1.58” fell in 2016. Last year the H/L was 71/44 with a trace of rain fall.

We are now at October 6th and the coldest it has gotten this fall season in 44 back on September 19th At the current time it I partly cloudy and 48 here in MBY. The average first 32 day at Grand Rapids is October 14th The earliest is September 3rd 1946 and the latest is November 14th 1918. Last year it was October 8th 

[Niko]

There is a chance that highs could be in the 40s on Sunday for myby. Yikes. This is some really chilly air coming.

[hawkstwelve]

Wind Advisory for this morning, Freeze Warning for tomorrow morning. Temps as low as 30 expected. This morning was the first time we have turned on the heat in the house so far this season after we bottomed out at 37.

NDFD max highs have taken a tumble. We were supposed to jump back up into the upper 70s next week but latest update shows us staying in the low/mid 60s through Thursday with not a lot of heat to speak of. Nice turn to the cooler side of guidance for once instead of always ending up hotter than it initially looks.

[Black Hole]

The first cold front went through a day ago, but the trailing cold front with the actual cool air will arrive this afternoon here. Looks like some gusts up to 30 mph with low temperatures in the low 40s tonight. We've had decent rains so it'll probably be hard to drop too low. Highs tomorrow in the low to mid 60s are going to feel pretty great. 

Looks like a slow warming trend into next week but we'll get another rain chance and shot of cool air later next week so it looks to stay reasonable for a while. 

[mlgamer]

16 hours ago, Tom said:

@Clinton @mlgamer That would hurt if I had to look south and this was a Blitz that nailed KC up to DTX!  This storm showing up mid next week is going to be a signature storm track IMHO as we roll through this season.  It'll be a corridor or exhibit of the new LRC pattern.  The data I'm seeing as we progress into late Fall/early Winter is going to be ideally centered in this region.  I don't expect to see much, if any, hard cutters this coming winter.  No signs of a SER...but definite LR signs of bowling balls, CO Low's and Miller B Storms.

 

 

Well,  I sure wouldn't mind seeing a few strong panhandle hooks track through my region as they used to do in the days of old. Hopefully some big share-the-wealth type of systems this winter.

[Clinton]

26 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Well,  I sure wouldn't mind seeing a few strong panhandle hooks track through my region as they used to do in the days of old. Hopefully some big share-the-wealth type of systems this winter.

Feels like it's been along time.  Let's load them up with moisture and break this drought!

[Tom]

Hello from Texarkana!  Should be in DFW in about 2 hours.  Beautiful clear skies and 83F.

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, Niko said:

There is a chance that highs could be in the 40s on Sunday for myby. Yikes. This is some really chilly air coming.

So, it's official..

[james1976]

6 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Wind Advisory for this morning, Freeze Warning for tomorrow morning. Temps as low as 30 expected. This morning was the first time we have turned on the heat in the house so far this season after we bottomed out at 37.

NDFD max highs have taken a tumble. We were supposed to jump back up into the upper 70s next week but latest update shows us staying in the low/mid 60s through Thursday with not a lot of heat to speak of. Nice turn to the cooler side of guidance for once instead of always ending up hotter than it initially looks.

Nice change from the constant heat!

[chescowxman]

Starting to see a bit more color in the woods...

 

[Hawkeye]

The Euro's current prediction for the mid to late next week system.

[luminen]

74F here today with dews peaking at 64F under sunny skies. Almost record warm. I can't complain though...some of the most pleasant weather all summer since the rain finally stopped.

[Clinton]

What a refreshing change, currently 53 with sunny skies. I got my hoodie and shorts it's officially fat boy weather!

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

The Euro's current prediction for the mid to late next week system.

Hey now when I said I hopes you Iowa guys got some rain out of this I didn't mean all of it.  Bring it back south lol!

[bud2380]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

The Euro's current prediction for the mid to late next week system.

 

Has the look of a classic winter storm system.  Would be nice to see this return in about 60 days with some cold air in place.  

 

[Iceresistance]

WINTER IS COMING

 

[mlgamer]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Hey now when I said I hopes you Iowa guys got some rain out of this I didn't mean all of it.  Bring it back south lol!

Yikes! As Yogi Berra once said, "It's like deja vu all over again."

[Timmy Supercell]

Looks like we got to 76 today, low of 63. I hope this was the last of the warm nights for the year.

Sad to report though, that we might've stopped hearing the cicadas this evening. Still hundreds of crickets (even middle of the day!) so we still hear plenty of bugs in the area. Still one variety of katydid we hear at night. I'd have to research again what its scientific name is. The ones that go right up to your home, not on trees.

[Timmy Supercell]

6 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Looks like we got to 76 today, low of 63. I hope this was the last of the warm nights for the year.

Sad to report though, that we might've stopped hearing the cicadas this evening. Still hundreds of crickets (even middle of the day!) so we still hear plenty of bugs in the area. Still one variety of katydid we hear at night. I'd have to research again what its scientific name is. The ones that go right up to your home, not on trees.

Ah yes, found him. The page thankfully has an audio sample that makes it easy.

[jaster220]

Knarly surface map for The Mitt this evening. Afternoon sun was fairly comfortable, but then the cloud deck rolled in and immediately the temps felt 5 degrees cooler.