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October 2023 Observations and Discussion


gabel23

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We managed to pickup just over an inch of rain yesterday in Omaha… the storms weakened a bit as they moved in, however between the scattered showers and storms earlier during the day and the line of storms during the late evening hours we didn’t end up doing too bad.

Sucks for those off to our east and south though… this pattern remains so hit or miss for the Midwest.

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55 minutes ago, Iowawx said:

Why do you think it has been so dry in Cedar Rapids this summer and now into fall? Are we just unable to get in on heavy rain here anymore? I feel like we have been missing out on the heaviest of rain and snow here for quite some time. It's so dry here, it's just getting ridiculous.

It has just bad a lot of dry patterns combined with bad luck during the brief wet patterns.  Of course, once it gets going, drought and dry ground/air feed on each other.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Things are firing up NW of DFW. 
They’re forecasting hail 1-2” in some cells.  Heavy rain, flash flooding.  

2F1BF801-F23A-411A-BABA-C6D21071BA91.gif

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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Things are firing up NW of DFW. 
They’re forecasting hail 1-2” in some cells.  Heavy rain, flash flooding.  
 

Its 88 ahead of this thing.  

845AA732-4361-4919-9784-DED899116159.jpeg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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I give up..  I recorded .03 this am. Of over 333 locations  across Iowa again in the lowest 50 sites. Since aug 13 I have 1.66 inches. Again of 333 locations  im in lower 40 to 50 locations.  Its darn chronic here!!!!  Is this Southeast  Iowa which nearly year round is the wettest  part of Iowa based on closer to gulf of Mexico??? Throw out  all climatology    add up the numbers.  Stupid  hell hole here. Iowa has microclimates and I 100% know they exist. Ive been studying  them for 17 years.  80% of rain events  in growing season   all my friends is Oskaloosa  albia  ames madrid and many other iowa towns get more rain than Ottumwa.  Just a fact. A 17 yr fact. We are disbanding our mowing division.   Have averaged about 14 mowing a year since  the summer  of 2012 thats unreal!!!  It should be 24 to 29 mowing. We avg 13 pushes per commercial  snow site since 2014. Will stick to that and other contracting.  Im so done with Ottumwa  Iowa weather!!!!!

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Been an interesting day here, worked a bunch of OT at the office to cover the severe weather. Bunch of hail (0.5-1") went by my house but I wasn't there to see it. Then 60-80 mph winds hit the northern part of the Tulsa metro. Lots of rain too. 1.66" at my house so far, others have had more. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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.  Dropped like a stone to 71.  Pretty big thunderstorm.  We lost power.  Some hail. Rained so hard you couldn’t see 75’.
Another wave or two to come.  A bouncy stormy night.  Love this rain!!

A494EC2B-8E37-466F-A208-0E61228BE210.jpeg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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At 11 it’s 69 and light rain. More rain west of us.  This has been nice and much needed   

81 tomorrow with a light breeze. Nice change.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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The streak of warmth and heat will end after today.  The top 5 streaks are all from 2002 to present.

One more warm day today with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 which will add one more day to the streak of consecutive days with highs above 70 before it comes to an end Friday. This will be the second longest stretch on the 136-year period of record for KC.
May be an image of text that says 'Rank 1 2 3 Run Length 150 138 134 Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 70 for Kansas City Area, MO (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending Ending Date 2018-09-25 2023-10-04 2019-10-02 134 2002-10-06 132 2021-10-10 Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1888-07-01 to 2023-10-04 5'
Tab2FileL.png
 
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@mlgamer maybe the tide will turn for us soon.  0z models both with the same idea for a storm next week and it looks like the trough in the middle of the country is going to be part of this years pattern and stick around for more than a few days.  @OttumwaSnomow I hope things improve for you I know exactly how frustrating it's been.

qpf_acc-imp.us_mw.png

qpf_acc-imp.us_mw.png

Look at that block!  Beautiful!!!

gfs_z500a_namer_30.png

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6 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

This is really a pretty shocking late-forecast increase in potency of the first real cool shot of the season. Gonna have a little bite in it. 

 

gfs_T2ma_us_11.png

This is the FLIP you have always been thinking about and yearning for....Chicago had its warmest OCT 1st-4th open on record and its gonna be COLD this weekend with graupel in the forecast on FRI.

Oct 1st-4th WGN Warmest Open on Record.webp

 

1.webp

 

 

Speaking of the Cold temps on the way, up in the Northwoods of N Wisco and U.P., fall colors are at their peak!  Is that early or what? @Madtown

Fall Colors.webp

 

 

 

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27 minutes ago, Clinton said:

@mlgamer maybe the tide will turn for us soon.  0z models both with the same idea for a storm next week and it looks like the trough in the middle of the country is going to be part of this years pattern and stick around for more than a few days.  @OttumwaSnomow I hope things improve for you I know exactly how frustrating it's been.

qpf_acc-imp.us_mw.png

qpf_acc-imp.us_mw.png

Look at that block!  Beautiful!!!

gfs_z500a_namer_30.png

"Midwest Mauler"...gotta a good feeling that this will be the  year of Bombs!

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Exceptional drought has expanded over Cedar Rapids for the first time, ever (this map began in the late 90s).

20231003_midwest_date.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Last nights moderate intensity rainfall was was exactly what the Hot Springs area needed to start putting a dent into the drought.  Every drop soaked into the soils around here since yesterday.  The local reporting station says we received just over 2" or rain, while those farther west over Texarkana got walloped with a band of 10-12"!

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We have had a very warm start here to October with high temperatures ranging from the upper 70's to low 80's across the County. Today and the next couple of days will continue that trend. However, we will see a sharp turn to much cooler than normal temperatures by the weekend. We may see temps across the higher spots of Chester County remaining in the low 50's on Sunday. We should see below normal autumnal temps continuing for most of next week. We will see rain chances ramping up by Friday evening continuing through Saturday AM.
Go Phillies!
Records for today: High 94 (1941) / Low 28 (1965) / Rain 2.04" (1902)
image.png.0056ada762633e4a3a9ee1083008b252.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 82/60. That is the 1st time in recorded history that Grand Rapids had 4 days in a row of 80 or better to start the month of October. A new record high of 84 was set at Muskegon. For today the average H/L is 66/46 the record high of 85 was set in 1900, 1922 and 1946 while the record low of 29 was set in 1965 and 2004. The record rain fall amount of 1.72” fell in 2013. So far today here in MBY I have recorded 0.86” of rain fall the current temperature in MBY is 64.

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3 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

@Andie
You alright? There was a possible tornado near Midlothian, TX.

That’s a good ways away to the SE.  

Storm packed a punch. Golf course has lost a 2nd tree this year.  It snapped off about 2’ from the ground. Amazing.  
It was a hit and run storm though. I’d prefer a long slow day of rain! 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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On the topic of high lat blocking and what I'm expecting to see as we close out OCT, it's that time of year when I start paying attn to the strat warming pools.  The region that draws my attn, is where the warming has begun and rolls through the end of the animations below.  Looking up towards Alaska/N Pole and up/down the west coast of North America is where I'd expecting ridging/blocking to hold strong.  The deep blues showing up over Eastern N. A. and a "tongue" into the southern part of the U.S. looks to me that the #STJ will be active. All of this should be an indication of a deep trough setting up by the week of the 22nd.  I'm expecting a very cold forecast to close out OCT for the eastern CONUS.  Positive signs for possible "first flakes" for parts of the N and E Sub Forum.

 

 

temp30anim.gif

 

 

 

 

temp50anim.gif

 

 

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4 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

@Andie
You alright? There was a possible tornado near Midlothian, TX.

Midlothian is way SE of me.  Modest sized town. Hope no one hurt.  
We got high winds. Some trees damaged or lost altogether. If there was circulation aloft I didn’t hear about it. I’m SW of Ft Worth but in the same county.  
As I’m near a lake the rising moisture affects our weather. Luckily the hail usually hit east of me but not always.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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Showers have arrived and now temps begin to fall. This weekend will be a chilly one. Low 50s for highs at best and 30s for lows. There could be a Frost Advisory for some. Stay tuned!!! Next week we warm to near 60F but back into the 50s all week.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I'm liking what's coming on the radar!

KLVX_loop (1).gif

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 31
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 6/4, 6/5, 6/6, 6/17
6/18, 

Severe storms: 2
Max High: 96 (feels like 107 on June 17)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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6 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

The drought monitor map continues to be a mess for central, southern and southwest areas. @Clinton (and others) have mentioned some hope that a wetter pattern may begin soon so hopefully improvement is on the way.

 

20231003_usdm.thumb.png.8500742bc558d932fc56eb40fbe5c90f.png

The huge rainfall from Central Oklahoma south to Texas was not counted this week, but will next week.

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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@Clinton @mlgamer That would hurt if I had to look south and this was a Blitz that nailed KC up to DTX!  This storm showing up mid next week is going to be a signature storm track IMHO as we roll through this season.  It'll be a corridor or exhibit of the new LRC pattern.  The data I'm seeing as we progress into late Fall/early Winter is going to be ideally centered in this region.  I don't expect to see much, if any, hard cutters this coming winter.  No signs of a SER...but definite LR signs of bowling balls, CO Low's and Miller B Storms.

 

 

Screen Shot 2023-10-05 at 5.18.05 PM.png

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Went up a scenic drive near Hot Springs National park…low clouds finally cleared up for some better viz.  In the video I said it’s a water tower but i misspoke bc there is  a tower where you can pay and go farther up to get better views.

IMG_3600.jpeg  

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

When is the avg first freeze?

Typically around the 15th for my area, probably a week earlier for central Nebraska. I’m hoping I don’t see a hard freeze because my tomato plants are still going strong! Looks like right now a low right around freezing, they might survive that….

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

It is starting to clear here now. The total rain fall here in MBY for this event is now at 0.89" the current temperature with clear skies in 63.

As of 7:53 pm KDTW was up to .67" qpf and that's significantly above the .25-.5" in their morning forecast map. Here about 10 miles NNW I'd say easily over .75" fell. Large puddles were all over the roads this evening. Tipping the scales for Cedar Rapids as this continues a streak of over-achievers when it comes to liquid events this summer. This sudden ramp-up was an unexpected surprise. Between the gusty winds and heavier rainfall with temps about 20 degrees lower than last evening it was very autumn f'real. Lots of leafs coming down along with the rain drops. Heck, I've seen less impressive hurricaine remnants tbh. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

@Clinton @mlgamer That would hurt if I had to look south and this was a Blitz that nailed KC up to DTX!  This storm showing up mid next week is going to be a signature storm track IMHO as we roll through this season.  It'll be a corridor or exhibit of the new LRC pattern.  The data I'm seeing as we progress into late Fall/early Winter is going to be ideally centered in this region.  I don't expect to see much, if any, hard cutters this coming winter.  No signs of a SER...but definite LR signs of bowling balls, CO Low's and Miller B Storms.

 

 

Screen Shot 2023-10-05 at 5.18.05 PM.png

This part of the pattern sure looks promising, and the strength of the upcoming storm for October is very encouraging should it verify.

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