October 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

It will get might cold Sunday and Sunday nite w highs not getting outta the 40s and lows in the upper 20s to near 30F. First freeze of the season for S MI. Freeze and Frost advisories are looking likely for this weekend. Growing season has officially ended.

[OKwx2k4]

My fellow okies have covered all the points I came to write on for my area of the region. 

If ensemble trends are continued, the shot at the end of this month will bring early winter temps to half the state and possibly much earlier snow than normal. 

The pattern developing and retrograding over the US is how you set up real deal winter. 

[Iceresistance]

12z GEFS is further north on the snow line

[hawkstwelve]

12z GFS drops almost a foot of snow over Sioux Falls between Thursday and Friday of next week. Too bad it's the GFS so the inherent trust is minimal.

Although really both models are struggling with the pattern right now. Skill scores have dropped into the low/mid 80s for both the Euro and GFS. Lots of time to iron things out. Fully expecting, in keeping with the recent theme of the past few months, that somehow things will work out to be bland and boring.

[Clinton]

12z Euro starting to look more like the GFS in the long range.  Both models indicating not fall like but winter temps the last week of the month.

[CentralNebWeather]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

12z Euro starting to look more like the GFS in the long range.  Both models indicating not fall like but winter temps the last week of the month.

Hello winter, welcome back. 

[Clinton]

53 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Hello winter, welcome back. 

Hello winter and might it stay for awhile.  It would be nice to see the MJO cycle through the cold phases as this new weather pattern develops and it sure looks like it's off to a great start.  The GEFS is showing some amplified solutions in phase 8 and 1 as we move into November and it also has support from the other major long range models.

[james1976]

My grids have 40s for highs and even some upper 30s to finish out October!

[Iceresistance]

HERE IT COMES!

[jaster220]

8 hours ago, Niko said:

It will get might cold Sunday and Sunday nite w highs not getting outta the 40s and lows in the upper 20s to near 30F. First freeze of the season for S MI. Freeze and Frost advisories are looking likely for this weekend. Growing season has officially ended.

It is taking it's (normal) time so far this autumn unlike a year ago when some areas around the GL's were already getting their first taste of winter! I'm fine with it. Let the western Peeps score early. Snow in October is rarely a good harbinger here, and New Englanders consider it a veritable death knell for their upcoming season. 

A year ago:

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Hello winter and might it stay for awhile.  It would be nice to see the MJO cycle through the cold phases as this new weather pattern develops and it sure looks like it's off to a great start.  The GEFS is showing some amplified solutions in phase 8 and 1 as we move into November and it also has support from the other major long range models.

This is actually what Eric Snodgrass has been saying in his daily morning videos from Nutrien Ag. solutions on YouTube. Good stuff Clinton. My son and I are going to Lincoln Saturday for the Nebraska vs. Northwestern game. Weather looks great. My daughter is going with some friends to the Nebraska vs Purdue game in Lincoln on the 28th. I told her she better dress warm, as there might be some chances of rain or snow with cold and windy conditions. She was not happy. 

[Clinton]

41 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

This is actually what Eric Snodgrass has been saying in his daily morning videos from Nutrien Ag. solutions on YouTube. Good stuff Clinton. My son and I are going to Lincoln Saturday for the Nebraska vs. Northwestern game. Weather looks great. My daughter is going with some friends to the Nebraska vs Purdue game in Lincoln on the 28th. I told her she better dress warm, as there might be some chances of rain or snow with cold and windy conditions. She was not happy. 

I remember watching Nebraska play with some snow falling in Lincoln.  It will make for a festive atmosphere and that's football weather!

[CentralNebWeather]

41 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I remember watching Nebraska play with some snow falling in Lincoln.  It will make for a festive atmosphere and that's football weather!

I’m at the point of my life that I hate sitting at cold weather games. Watching in the man cave is so much more comfortable. Been there done that for cold, windy, snowy games at Memorial Stadium over the years. 

[Andie]

Snow games are awesome….

On TV!!

[Clinton]

Great blog by TSwails this morning I encourage everyone to read it.  More evidence pointing to a cold close to Oct and a cold start for at least the first half of Nov.  -EPO, -WPO, +PNA, MJO in cold phases at the same time burrr!  Most importantly moisture for those of us who need it!

https://www.tswails.com/single-post/winter-is-stirring

[westMJim]

Some fun facts. The coldest it has gotten here in Grand Rapids so far this October is just 37 if that were to hold until the end of the month it would be the warmest minimum for any October. The current warmest record low is 35 set in 1931 and 1938.  Another fun fact is that here in Grand Rapids there were 11 days in a row of below average temperatures but the month is still above average due to the warm start.

[Tom]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Great blog by TSwails this morning I encourage everyone to read it.  More evidence pointing to a cold close to Oct and a cold start for at least the first half of Nov.  -EPO, -WPO, +PNA, MJO in cold phases at the same time burrr!  Most importantly moisture for those of us who need it!

https://www.tswails.com/single-post/winter-is-stirring

The "Heart of the LRC"...I'm sure Gary is going to comment on this in his paid blog next week...this pattern is certainly very intriguing to me as we head deeper into the colder months...

[Clinton]

13 minutes ago, Tom said:

The "Heart of the LRC"...I'm sure Gary is going to comment on this in his paid blog next week...this pattern is certainly very intriguing to me as we head deeper into the colder months...

Have you subscribed I'm giving it some strong consideration?

[Tom]

15 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Have you subscribed I'm giving it some strong consideration?

I think I will sometime soon...

[chescowxman]

One last nice day before rain arrives toward Friday AM. We may see the sun again by later Saturday. Sharply chillier by Sunday with some frost even possible by Tuesday morning. A nice warm up by the end of next week before a turn to colder to finish out October with a chance of our first freeze around the 30th.

Records for today: High 83 (1963) / Low 22 (1974) / Rain 3.14" (1996)

[Bryan1117]

12 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

This is actually what Eric Snodgrass has been saying in his daily morning videos from Nutrien Ag. solutions on YouTube. Good stuff Clinton. My son and I are going to Lincoln Saturday for the Nebraska vs. Northwestern game. Weather looks great. My daughter is going with some friends to the Nebraska vs Purdue game in Lincoln on the 28th. I told her she better dress warm, as there might be some chances of rain or snow with cold and windy conditions. She was not happy. 

Taking my kids to their first Husker football game on Saturday… the weather looks outstanding! Couldn’t ask for better Fall weather this weekend - before the big change occurs next week. Winter is most definitely coming!

[Tom]

Temps have yet again been bumped up today and for tomorrow...104F!!!  I was out at the pool yesterday and it was definitely HOT...today and tomorrow will be scorchers.  I will say, however, the BIG difference is the sun angle as it is a lot lower than when I left in June so you don't necessarily feel it burning up your skin as quickly.  Nevertheless, you will get a nice tan and the recommended does of your daily Vitamin D!  

[OKwx2k4]

26 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

I hope that sprawling impenetrable eastern high pressure isn't a recurring feature of this year's LRC..

If it becomes an extremely west based NAO block, the east won't have winter, but the central/interior eastern US will.

[Andie]

I’m in the bright red. Extreme.  
Hoping to listen to thunder and rain on my roof!!!

86*. Humidity 22%

[jaster220]

10 hours ago, westMJim said:

Some fun facts. The coldest it has gotten here in Grand Rapids so far this October is just 37 if that were to hold until the end of the month it would be the warmest minimum for any October. The current warmest record low is 35 set in 1931 and 1938.  Another fun fact is that here in Grand Rapids there were 11 days in a row of below average temperatures but the month is still above average due to the warm start.

WPC says frost in-bound:

Meanwhile, NWS says "no" to headlines:

So yes, its an odd autumn/October so far. I was noticing the same exact thing. Thought for sure we'd be BN for the month. Was surprised to see we are just down in the avg range at +0.7 departure. 

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

WPC says frost in-bound:

Meanwhile, NWS says "no" to headlines:

So yes, its an odd autumn/October so far. I was noticing the same exact thing. Thought for sure we'd be BN for the month. Was surprised to see we are just down in the avg range at +0.7 departure. 

I'm digging the heavy rain circle.  It's been dry for so long, I feel like I have a lot riding on next weeks system or systems just to convince me next year wont be like this past year.

[Clinton]

Todays 12z models show the pattern reloading with storms behind next weeks system.  With some cold air in place, some of the northern and maybe central posters could see their first snow of the season.  Spooky Halloween!

[Clinton]

@CentralNebWeather you may bat lead off this year.

[Andie]

56 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I'm digging the heavy rain circle.  It's been dry for so long, I feel like I have a lot riding on next weeks system or systems just to convince me next year wont be like this past year.

I’m digging it with you!!

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

@CentralNebWeather you may bat lead off this year.

Would bring back memories of the Halloween Blizzard of 1991. I would say that is a top 5 in the best blizzards that I’ve lived through in Central Nebraska. Not calling for a blizzard, just remember the record cold of late October into November 1991. 

[Andie]

On 10/17/2023 at 9:55 AM, Iceresistance said:

Colder than I expected

This is some pretty chilly air!  Even for Oklahoma this time of year.  

[Niko]

It gets real chilly this weekend, but gets even colder for next weekend. It could be a long stretch of cold air b4 any moderation moves in.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday was 57/52 there was 0.29” of rain fall. No snow fall. There were 10 HDD’s and 0% of sun. The highest wind gust was 20 MPH out of the S. For today the average H/L is 59/41 the record high of 83 was set in 1953 and the record low of 22 was set in 1952 and 1974. The record precip was 1.11” in 1916 and the record snow fall is 2.2” in 1992. Last year the H/L was 54/34 and there was a trace of rain fall.

[westMJim]

October now has 19 days in the record books. At Grand Rapids, MI the mean is 54.8 that is +1.1. The highest for the month was 86 on the 3rd the coldest low so far is 37 on the 8th There has been a total of 3.86” of precipitation that is +1.40 for the 1st 19 days of the month. There has been no snowfall yet. There have been 2 clear days 11 partly cloudy days and 2 cloudy days so far.

[Black Hole]

Could have a pretty substantial rain event the middle of next week around here. We will have several days of moist southwest flow and good forcing to ring out plenty of rain for somebody. 

[chescowxman]

A mild cloudy day ahead for Chester County today we should see highs in the above normal mid to upper 60's. Rain looks to stay to our east this AM with rain chances increasing after 5pm tonight. Drying out tomorrow and windy and chilly on both Sunday and Monday with temps remaining below normal from tomorrow through Tuesday. Above normal temps return by Tuesday and we should stay warm through the end of next week.

Records for today: High 82 (1969) / Low 21 (1972) / Rain 2.48" (1988)

[Clinton]

Started a new thread for next weeks storm.

[Tom]

PHX set another record high yesterday of 104F...we'll prob match that today and likely set another record!  It's just nuts to even fathom that its this Hot in late October.  Normal high today is 88F....changes are coming and the Valley is ready for this Big change towards Autumn weather.  Its been nothing short (pun intended) of wearing shorts and T's around these parts.  As much as I'm a fan of Summer wx, I'd like to also see the snow begin to fall in the mountains up north.  

[gabel23]

14 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Would bring back memories of the Halloween Blizzard of 1991. I would say that is a top 5 in the best blizzards that I’ve lived through in Central Nebraska. Not calling for a blizzard, just remember the record cold of late October into November 1991. 

I remember that really well. We had halloween canceled that year I was so mad! We had that really cold stretch at the end of Oct. into Nov. but then after that the rest of the winter was a blow torch. I think it was like 70 on x mas that year. 

[gabel23]

For those of you who are interested in understanding the LRC here is a snap shot. This was from back in 2018-2019, I took a screen shot of the storm system that affected us in Oct of that year. The other image is when the bomb cyclone hit my area that March. Pretty remarkable how the systems not only resemble each other; the storm almost hit on the same exact date 5 months later!