MossMan Posted October 22, 2023 Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, Phil said: Hot damn. First time I checked the models since Friday, looks like the GFS came out on top?! Jaw meet floor. Yes, old news…Get caught up. Andrew has already proclaimed the Euro as trash. 4 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Angeles Foothiller Posted October 22, 2023 Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 I think we see snow levels down to 500-1000 ft on the peninsula. Growing pretty confident I see flakes fly. 2 3 Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 22, 2023 Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 18 minutes ago, MossMan said: Yes, old news…Get caught up. Andrew has already proclaimed the Euro as trash. Hey I had a wedding to attend. Priorities, and all that. Plus autumn is boring af here. I’m always tuned out, which is probably why this trend happened. You’re welcome! 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post snow_wizard Posted October 22, 2023 Popular Post Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 Looks like it's going to get nippy. Past history says this type of pattern coming up is the kiss of death for the winter when it happens in a Nino October, but December could be in play for something good. 15 1 2 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 22, 2023 Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Looks like it's going to get nippy. Past history says this type of pattern coming up is the kiss of death for the winter when it happens in a Nino October, but December could be in play for something good. Jim!! Where have you been? We were all worried sick, haha. We really needed someone to counter Tim’s heat misering. Please don’t go anywhere. 2 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted October 22, 2023 Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 Does anyone know what happened/what the set-up was in late October 1984? I just saw that BLI recorded a 31/20 day on October 31st??? That remains their earliest subfreezing high by two weeks. Looks like SEA also had a respectable, but not nearly as crazy 41/31 day. 4 1 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 22, 2023 Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: Does anyone know what happened/what the set-up was in late October 1984? I just saw that BLI recorded a 31/20 day on October 31st??? That remains their earliest subfreezing high by two weeks. Looks like SEA also had a respectable, but not nearly as crazy 41/31 day. It was a classic Arctic blast setup. I still clearly remember it. We had snow on the ground on Halloween morning where I was living and the roads were icy. It was quite remarkable. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post snow_wizard Posted October 22, 2023 Popular Post Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, Phil said: Jim!! Where have you been? We were all worried sick, haha. We needed someone to counter Tim’s heat misering. Please don’t go anywhere. It's a long story. I did a topic about it, but people weren't seeing it so I deleted it. In short I'm fine. I should have come on here an let people know I was still alive. 12 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YahRaEl Posted October 22, 2023 Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 Bull ain't going to happen. Per WeatherBit and OpenweatherMap 2 1 Quote Eastside Tacoma/Salishan, WA. Elv 263ft Family home in Spanaway, WA. Elv 413ft ☥𓂀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 22, 2023 Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, ChrisEl Elyon said: Bull ain't going to happen. Per WeatherBit and OpenweatherMap My phone app has turned into the Rich Marriott of apps. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 22, 2023 Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 One pretty remarkable aspect to the coming cold snap is the surface pressure gradients remain northerly for most of the event. That is especially good for cold mins in the Central Puget Sound region as opposed to cold snaps with a more easterly gradient. I'm thinking there will be some mid 20s if things go as currently shown. With a nino cold snaps are normally more backdoor / easterly gradient. Kind of interesting. 1 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted October 22, 2023 Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 29 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: It's a long story. I did a topic about it, but people weren't seeing it so I deleted it. In short I'm fine. I should have come on here an let people know I was still alive. Did you finally strike it rich in the golden fields of Liberty? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 22, 2023 Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 34 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: It's a long story. I did a topic about it, but people weren't seeing it so I deleted it. In short I'm fine. I should have come on here an let people know I was still alive. Good to see you, Jim! Hopefully the models will be in our favor often the next 4-5 months. 12z ECMWF in 9 minutes 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 22, 2023 Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, smerfylicious said: Did you finally strike it rich in the golden fields of Liberty? I wish....it's not for lack of trying. I will say I credit mining for helping me maintain some degree of sanity during hard times. 9 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 22, 2023 Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said: Good to see you, Jim! Hopefully the models will be in our favor often the next 4-5 months. 12z ECMWF in 9 minutes Thank you! Being real you pretty much have to expect the worse from about Jan 10 onward this winter. Before that we probably have a shot at something pretty worthwhile. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted October 22, 2023 Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 22 minutes ago, MossMan said: My phone app has turned into the Rich Marriott of apps. That looks pretty reasonable for what the models are showing currently. Maybe a degree or two too warm on some of those days (I think we'll see some lows in the 20s), but snow is probably not going to happen. On the other hand, if anyone is going to get snow it's probably going to be you. 3 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 22, 2023 Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: Looks like it's going to get nippy. Past history says this type of pattern coming up is the kiss of death for the winter when it happens in a Nino October, but December could be in play for something good. He’s back! All it took was a modelled arctic blast. 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted October 22, 2023 Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: Looks like it's going to get nippy. Past history says this type of pattern coming up is the kiss of death for the winter when it happens in a Nino October, but December could be in play for something good. Yeah this October cold snap doesn’t have me that optimistic about anything happening in the winter but there could definitely still be something especially in Nov or Dec. 1 Quote 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted October 22, 2023 Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 First freeze a near guarantee it seems, when the sky clears out at night. Outlying areas into the 20s. Can you imagine if this was on the 31st? Trick or treating would be miserable 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 22, 2023 Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: Thank you! Being real you pretty much have to expect the worse from about Jan 10 onward this winter. Before that we probably have a shot at something pretty worthwhile. It's nice to have you back Jim! Yeah I agree if something happens it will probably be late November or December. February is way overdue for a blowtorch so we might as well just get that monkey off our backs this winter. January is January. An average one is worthy of celebration nowadays. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 22, 2023 Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 How’d the euro look. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 22, 2023 Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 Wow 3 2 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 22, 2023 Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted October 22, 2023 Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Wow I saw that. Wasn’t going to post it. Since it’s JAN during a El Niño, and it’s the CFS. And it’s January 1 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted October 22, 2023 Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 41 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said: First freeze a near guarantee it seems, when the sky clears out at night. Outlying areas into the 20s. Can you imagine if this was on the 31st? Trick or treating would be miserable I could think of far more miserable Halloweens. Like when it's in the mid 50s and pouring rain. Sweat underneath your mask, soaking wet everything else. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 22, 2023 Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 40 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Wow The last update on the ECWF monthlies actually has a cold December for us. I was pleased to see that. 5 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 22, 2023 Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 6 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said: I could think of far more miserable Halloweens. Like when it's in the mid 50s and pouring rain. Sweat underneath your mask, soaking wet everything else. Very true. I remember a lot of clear and frosty Halloween nights and they are pretty awesome actually. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 22, 2023 Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 As an aside has anyone else noticed how drippy the Douglas Fir trees have been this year? We have had a huge problem with it making our cars dirty and sticky. The freezing nights should finally shut that off. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 22, 2023 Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 Here you go @SilverFallsAndrew and all. 12z ECMWF 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 22, 2023 Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 12z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 22, 2023 Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 50 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Wow Expect the warmest January in history. 1 1 1 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 22, 2023 Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 2 hours ago, snow_wizard said: Thank you! Being real you pretty much have to expect the worse from about Jan 10 onward this winter. Before that we probably have a shot at something pretty worthwhile. Yeah if anything is going to happen this winter it’ll be the front half, given this ENSO/LP structure (barring something unprecedented w/ the PV/NAM, even more-so than 2018/19..I.E: theoretically possible but quite unlikely). 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted October 22, 2023 Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 32 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said: I could think of far more miserable Halloweens. Like when it's in the mid 50s and pouring rain. Sweat underneath your mask, soaking wet everything else. That is worse. Even worse if it is in the mid 40s. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 22, 2023 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 3 hours ago, snow_wizard said: Looks like it's going to get nippy. Past history says this type of pattern coming up is the kiss of death for the winter when it happens in a Nino October, but December could be in play for something good. Nice to see you man!! Glad you’re back!! 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 22, 2023 Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 Winterizing around the house! And the squirrels are really barking at my dogs today… It’s coming. 5 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted October 22, 2023 Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 Some EPS members are showing snow. Though no members on the GEFS are showing snow. 1 1 Quote 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 22, 2023 Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 Environment Canada says I get a freeze this week. 2 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 22, 2023 Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 Last year it poured on Halloween. I stayed in the car with the baby while my daughter and wife ran around getting soaked trick or treating. 2 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted October 22, 2023 Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 28 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Environment Canada says I get a freeze this week. Weather.com says I could possibly get four next week! 2 Quote 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Angeles Foothiller Posted October 22, 2023 Report Share Posted October 22, 2023 End of season harvest! 8 1 1 1 Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Posted by SouthHillFrosty,
Every parent can relate
Recommended by iFred
12 reactions
Go to this post
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.