October 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Snownerd3000]

Based on their analogs, Nov warmer with potential coastal storms, Dec stormy and colder, Jan transition to seasonal.  I haven't been able to find WA dept of ag seasonal forecast.  Anyone find this? Just curious to see their take.

 

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

12z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

Does Pivotal give you access to Weeklies?

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

I just mean historically any type of anomalous cold in October has been shown to be a bad sign. Not necessarily comparing statistically what will happen with this event to 2002 or 2019. 

Even taking ENSO out of the equation there are dozens of years that disprove this. Let’s not forget October 1949 was the coldest on record. Of course October cold isn’t a slam dunk but it definitely isn’t always a bad sign either.

Even for +ENSO years there are plenty of examples debunking the “October kiss of death” mythos that seems to be really popular here. From what I can tell, it’s sort of a wash no matter how you look at it. Personally, cold anomalies of any significance are rare enough around here that I’ll take them any time. Probably our rarest type of weather event these days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Even taking ENSO out of the equation there are dozens of years that disprove this. Let’s not forget October 1949 was the coldest on record. Of course October cold isn’t a slam dunk but it definitely isn’t always a bad sign either.

Even for +ENSO years there are plenty of examples debunking the “October kiss of death” mythos that seems to be really popular here. From what I can tell, it’s sort of a wash no matter how you look at it. Personally, cold anomalies of any significance are rare enough around here that I’ll take them any time. Probably our rarest type of weather event these days.

I agree. I think Justin hit it on the head the other day, its more correlation than causation. I wouldn't trade the fall of 2019 for the CHANCE of something nice later on. Take it when we can get it. If we had a major snow event in late November, who cares if that's all we get, it's better than the highlight of many winters. 

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Does Pivotal give you access to Weeklies?

I don't believe so.

00z ECMWF in 8 hours 45 minutes

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I don't believe so.

00z ECMWF in 8 hours 45 minutes

Bummer. I haven't monetized everyones feet pics yet to buy into Wxbell's site to access them.  Just curious what they are saying for the next 46 days.

[Phishy Wx]

lol turned off irrigation today.  can't get a blowout until Saturday.  should be ok as long as sprinklers stay off until then.  was still watering 2 days a week until yesterday.

now I guess I may need to charge the blower batteries.  not sure if its going to be enough to blow, but gunna prep anyway

[the_convergence_zone]

The GEFS and EC seem to have backed off of the colder solutions of a few days ago and seem to have settled on a T850 of around -2 to -4 C over western WA. Minimal intrusion of arctic air through the gaps, basically a modified maritime airmass that is going to be quite juicy. Possibly close to an inch of rain tomorrow at KSEA. Montana gets the real cold stuff. 

My other takeaway from the 12Z runs is that the November firehose looks to be right on schedule. 

 

[MossMan]

Anallogs…Had my septic tank pumped today. Last time that happened…2018. We all know what happened in early 2019…It’s coming. 
Also found out I am supposed to be cleaning this filter every 6 months! Oops! Now I know. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, the_convergence_zone said:

The GEFS and EC seem to have backed off of the colder solutions of a few days ago and seem to have settled on a T850 of around -2 to -4 C over western WA. Minimal intrusion of arctic air through the gaps, basically a modified maritime airmass that is going to be quite juicy. Possibly close to an inch of rain tomorrow at KSEA. Montana gets the real cold stuff. 

My other takeaway from the 12Z runs is that the November firehose looks to be right on schedule. 

 

I would LOVE to see a super wet November. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oregon department of AG still going with 1951-52, 1965-66, and 1972-73 with their analogs. 

 

Beats 1991-92.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, MossMan said:

Anallogs…Had my septic tank pumped today. Last time that happened…2018. We all know what happened in early 2019…It’s coming. 
Also found out I am supposed to be cleaning this filter every 6 months! Oops! Now I know. 

Yummy. 

[Snownerd3000]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Anallogs…Had my septic tank pumped today. Last time that happened…2018. We all know what happened in early 2019…It’s coming. 
Also found out I am supposed to be cleaning this filter every 6 months! Oops! Now I know. 

[Phishy Wx]

ISSUED: 1:21 PM OCT. 23, 2023 – NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM TUESDAY TO 11 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 1 and 3
inches. Up to 30 percent chance of over 3 inches of snow for some
locations.

* WHERE...Portions of North Idaho including the Coeur d'Alene metro
area. Portions of Central, North Central, and Northeast Washington
including the Okanogan Valley, Waterville Plateau, eastern slopes
of the Cascades, Wenatchee, West Plains, and Spokane.

* WHEN...From 11 PM Tuesday to 11 PM PDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...20 to 40 percent chance of over 4 inches of
snow along the eastern Cascade slope valleys including Wenatchee,
Chelan, Omak. 10 to 15 percent chance of over 3 inches of snow for
Spokane to Coeur d'Alene metro areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

ISSUED: 1:21 PM OCT. 23, 2023 – NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM TUESDAY TO 11 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 1 and 3
inches. Up to 30 percent chance of over 3 inches of snow for some
locations.

* WHERE...Portions of North Idaho including the Coeur d'Alene metro
area. Portions of Central, North Central, and Northeast Washington
including the Okanogan Valley, Waterville Plateau, eastern slopes
of the Cascades, Wenatchee, West Plains, and Spokane.

* WHEN...From 11 PM Tuesday to 11 PM PDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...20 to 40 percent chance of over 4 inches of
snow along the eastern Cascade slope valleys including Wenatchee,
Chelan, Omak. 10 to 15 percent chance of over 3 inches of snow for
Spokane to Coeur d'Alene metro areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

F Omak

[crf450ish]

9 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

ISSUED: 1:21 PM OCT. 23, 2023 – NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM TUESDAY TO 11 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 1 and 3
inches. Up to 30 percent chance of over 3 inches of snow for some
locations.

* WHERE...Portions of North Idaho including the Coeur d'Alene metro
area. Portions of Central, North Central, and Northeast Washington
including the Okanogan Valley, Waterville Plateau, eastern slopes
of the Cascades, Wenatchee, West Plains, and Spokane.

* WHEN...From 11 PM Tuesday to 11 PM PDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...20 to 40 percent chance of over 4 inches of
snow along the eastern Cascade slope valleys including Wenatchee,
Chelan, Omak. 10 to 15 percent chance of over 3 inches of snow for
Spokane to Coeur d'Alene metro areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

Not surprising at all. When I lived in Fruitland, it snowed many times before Halloween. Never stuck around for more than 24 hours.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yummy. 

Yummy?! I’m septical about that claim.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, crf450ish said:

Not surprising at all. When I lived in Fruitland it snowed many times before Halloween. Never stuck around for more than 24 hours

I remember snowfalls of around 8" in mid-October and a foot or more around Halloween from my teenage years in the Rockies. Those of course lasted longer than 24 hours, but they still didn’t last very long. It would all melt in a hurry once climo norms started reasserting themselves.

The 8" mid-October storm was quite destructive, as the deciduous trees had not finished shedding their leaves yet.

[LowerGarfield]

3 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

12Z Euro replaces that tacky and tasteless area of light snow over Blaine and White Rock with a much more stylish area of light snow over Richmond and Vancouver.

 

Justin and Pierre P would be thrilled.

[Phishy Wx]

 

 

[LowerGarfield]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

 

 

So jealous. But It's nice that my first freeze will be a week sooner than last year. So that will be cool. A second year in a row where I'm 90 percent likely to have had a freeze by Oct 19th and not even a frost yet. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Would be fun to go up to the mountains over the next few days. Should be fun up there.

[Phishy Wx]

NWS Spokane afternoon Disco is a fun read.  they seem excited

 

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/TextProduct?product=afdotx

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SLE hanging on at 57, see if they can get a sub-60 high. 52/48 so far at my place today. Looking at the NWS 7-day forecast we could have sub-50 highs to close out the month. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Powerful looking storm, could of been a great snow storm for the sound if it had waited till mid November. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looks like a good dump at our cabin of about 6-10 inches coming. Not unusual for there this time of year, a few years ago we had 5 inches on labor day weekend!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Looks like a good dump at our cabin of about 6-10 inches coming. Not unusual for there this time of year, a few years ago we had 5 inches on labor day weekend!

Hope you had a good summer. 

[GHweatherChris]

Sub 0 850 temps already moving in....

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Max of 53.9°F today. Expecting multiple sub-50 maxima this week IMBY.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

37 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Looks like a good dump at our cabin of about 6-10 inches coming. Not unusual for there this time of year, a few years ago we had 5 inches on labor day weekend!

I would not be surprised if you manage to make a quickie trip out there to experience it.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

49 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hope you had a good summer. 

It went to fast, work was painfully busy and no summer vacation this year. I hope you had a good one man.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

14 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I would not be surprised if you manage to make a quickie trip out there to experience it.

I just got back and was laughing at the fact I was going to miss it by 2 days.

[Ken in Wood Village]

You can see the front (in red) I'm not sure what the line of no clouds is (in orange). 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

You can see the front (in red) I'm not sure what the line of no clouds is (in orange). 

A bunch of dry air.

[Ken in Wood Village]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

A bunch of dry air.

Lol, in almost perfect line...lol

[MossMan]

From 80’s just two weeks ago at Soccer practice to BRRRRR right now out here! Cold wind! 
It’s still coming. 

[antipex]

52.1 here currently. Looking at models this could be the last time we are at 50+ until spring. Advisory is out for 1-4” of snow… Wednesday we may not climb above freezing.

[Phil]

https://x.com/ryanmaue/status/1715740318656565589?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

[Phil]

If this verifies, expect +IOD to strengthen even more into November. These zonal wind anomalies are absolutely bonkers.

Effect on fall/early winter pattern is state dependent/uncertain, but there’s no way this won’t be a major factor in Nov/Dec.