November 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

In the spirit of our upcoming Thanksgiving Holiday, I decided to pregame and freshen up some skills so I just put this 21lbs bird in the oven!  My neighbors will certainly be smelling the aroma of the Turkey  

[bud2380]

00z GFS 

 

[jaster220]

Sadly, on a less positive note for Michiganders. It has been reported that snow/snowmobiling Yooperland Met John Dee died this past Tuesday at the fairly young age of 57. No mention of cause. He was a legend with the snowmobilers that followed his sledding forecasts and seasonal outlook. He'll be missed for sure. Iirc, he originally worked in SWI as a Met but his love of the white gold led him to move to the W UP of Michigan. He and his family had a place that he was building on his wife's grandparent's homestead near the base of the Keweenaw peninsula. RIP fellow winter enthusiast! 

[tStacsh]

2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Sadly, on a less positive note for Michiganders. It has been reported that snow/snowmobiling Yooperland Met John Dee died this past Tuesday at the fairly young age of 57. No mention of cause. He was a legend with the snowmobilers that followed his sledding forecasts and seasonal outlook. He'll be missed for sure. Iirc, he originally worked in SWI as a Met but his love of the white gold led him to move to the W UP of Michigan. He and his family had a place that he was building on his wife's grandparent's homestead near the base of the Keweenaw peninsula. RIP fellow winter enthusiast! 

That sucks

[mlgamer]

The first half of November is over and TOP has officially received 0.01" of precip for the month...basically nothing. The dry weather should continue for at least the next three days so that would make the first 18 days in November with essentially no precipitation.

 

[westMJim]

43 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Sadly, on a less positive note for Michiganders. It has been reported that snow/snowmobiling Yooperland Met John Dee died this past Tuesday at the fairly young age of 57

Very sad to hear about this. I liked his forecast and even posted his winter forecast for this season. Thanks for the information.

[Hoosier]

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Sadly, on a less positive note for Michiganders. It has been reported that snow/snowmobiling Yooperland Met John Dee died this past Tuesday at the fairly young age of 57. No mention of cause. He was a legend with the snowmobilers that followed his sledding forecasts and seasonal outlook. He'll be missed for sure. Iirc, he originally worked in SWI as a Met but his love of the white gold led him to move to the W UP of Michigan. He and his family had a place that he was building on his wife's grandparent's homestead near the base of the Keweenaw peninsula. RIP fellow winter enthusiast! 

Sad news.  Have read his outlooks every year for many years.  

[Clinton]

12z GEFS starting to identify a path for a snow maker sometime between the 25th and 27th.  GFS and CMC close on location and strength.

[Clinton]

Getting close to my door step.  East Kansas and KC peeps will approve.

[Iceresistance]

5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Getting close to my door step.  East Kansas and KC peeps will approve.

I was just about to post that

[CentralNebWeather]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Getting close to my door step.  East Kansas and KC peeps will approve.

Post Thanksgiving looking cold and potentially snowy around here. Some of my fondest memories are snows around the holiday. Being stuck for 3 days at our grandparents during the Thanksgiving weekend blizzard of 1983 was so fun as all the relatives were there. I was a little kid, but still remember building snow forts and tunnels in the large snowdrifts. 

[Black Hole]

I wrote up a detailed thread on the winter weather potential on Twitter. It's OK centric, but still useful if you live anywhere close I think.
https://twitter.com/DerekHodgesWx/status/1725363001576784031

[westMJim]

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 66/33. That 66 is the 3^rd warmest for any November 16^th only 1896 with 68 and 1931 with 67 were warmer. There was no rain fall the sun was out 64% of the possible time. The highest wind gust was 35 MPH out of the S. For today the average H/L is 47/33 the record high of 70 was set in 1953 and 1958. The record low of 9 was set in 1959. The record rain fall of 1.59” was set in 1952. The record snow fall of 7.6” was just last year. The most on the ground was 6” in 2005. Last year the H/L was 32/26 with that record snow fall of 7.6”

Southern Lower Michigan weather history for November 17

1989: Grand Rapids picks up seven inches of snow, bringing accumulations during a three-day storm to over a foot.

2013: A squall line of severe thunderstorms moved through Lower Michigan during the afternoon bringing widespread wind damage. Hundreds of trees were knocked down and thousands lost power from downbursts and brief tornadoes along the line of storms.

 2013, a powerful low-pressure system strengthened and tracked northeast across the western Great Lakes. As the cold front swept through the area, winds gusted to 50 to 60 mph during the overnight hours with a peak gust of 70 mph observed at Ypsilanti. The winds produced widespread damage and caused hundreds of thousands of power outages across Southeast Michigan.

 1963, Genesee County experienced golfball size hail with a severe thunderstorm passing through.

[chescowxman]

Our last mild day with above normal temps will be today before the turn to below normal temps through much of the rest of November and in to the month of December. Partly sunny today with some light showers possible late tonight. The cold front crosses toward daybreak tomorrow and temperatures tomorrow will hold steady or slowly fall through the 40's. Some higher locales will struggle to escape the 40's all of the next week. We finally have a likely rain event starting on Tuesday afternoon. We could see near 1.5" of rain across much of Chester County. Even colder by Thanksgiving day with some higher elevation spots struggling to reach the mid-30's.

Records for today: High 76 (1896) / Low 9 (1933) / Rain 3.40" (1935) / Snow 1.0" (1980)

[Tom]

Happy Friday!  Moisture is in the air as we had several rounds of showers yesterday and into the evening.  Except for the Euro, most of the CAM's and global models handled this system quite bad.  Anyhow, looking forward to seeing sunshine today and then more rain on the way late tonight with embedded storms!

 

 

[GDR]

[hawkstwelve]

Latest GEFS trends over the past three runs. 

[Niko]

A balmy 58F outside currently. Enjoy it Michiganders becaause it wont last. Big change coming next week. Have to watch a potential storm (maybe a snowstorm or not) by midweek period. It gets very cold after the storm leaves. My highs are looking to be below freezing and lows in the teens.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings morning disco:  

 However, there continues to be signs
  of potential accumulating snow and travel impacts for Days 7-8
  (Black Friday into Saturday)

In fact, latest NBM calls for single digit to low teens wind chills Thanksgiving morning. The pattern could become interesting just beyond this official 7-day forecast - in the Black Friday/post holiday travel period. Both deterministic EC and GFS (and about 20 to 40 percent of their respective ensemble members) indicate potential for quick moving shortwave and at least light snow amounts. While systems of this nature typically don`t have a lot of moisture to work with, any moisture that is available will have favorably cold low to mid level temps to work with to produce potentially high snow-to-liquid ratio (SLR) dry snow that readily accumulates from the onset given highs at or below freezing. Light snow events are notorious for producing a lot of traffic accidents, so this traditionally high volume travel period will be important to monitor for negative impacts.

[Tom]

I'm starting to see a very BIG signal for a deep -NAO to develop during the 1st Week of of DEC, esp Post 5th into the following 2nd week of DEC.  There is also a pretty good signal for a west coast ridge to pop at the same time.  In essence, there are some conflicting LR signs of a warm up during the opening of DEC but the blocking, should it develop, can allow for colder air to seed the pattern for our Sub.

 

 

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, westMJim said:

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 66/33. That 66 is the 3^rd warmest for any November 16^th only 1896 with 68 and 1931 with 67 were warmer. There was no rain fall the sun was out 64% of the possible time. The highest wind gust was 35 MPH out of the S. For today the average H/L is 47/33 the record high of 70 was set in 1953 and 1958. The record low of 9 was set in 1959. The record rain fall of 1.59” was set in 1952. The record snow fall of 7.6” was just last year. The most on the ground was 6” in 2005. Last year the H/L was 32/26 with that record snow fall of 7.6”

Southern Lower Michigan weather history for November 17

1989: Grand Rapids picks up seven inches of snow, bringing accumulations during a three-day storm to over a foot.

2013: A squall line of severe thunderstorms moved through Lower Michigan during the afternoon bringing widespread wind damage. Hundreds of trees were knocked down and thousands lost power from downbursts and brief tornadoes along the line of storms.

 2013, a powerful low-pressure system strengthened and tracked northeast across the western Great Lakes. As the cold front swept through the area, winds gusted to 50 to 60 mph during the overnight hours with a peak gust of 70 mph observed at Ypsilanti. The winds produced widespread damage and caused hundreds of thousands of power outages across Southeast Michigan.

 1963, Genesee County experienced golfball size hail with a severe thunderstorm passing through.

Yep, there's the '89 storm. Do you remember it in Bay City area? I was up at deer camp in NMI and was surprised to find that even down in Genesee county there was a decent amount of snow. 

[jaster220]

Almost a 20F deg spread just across SMI with this CF. Unfortunately, the moisture popped too far south and east. Could come thru here with a complete whiff on qpf. 

[bud2380]

12z GFS showing the Black Friday (into Saturday) snow potential still.

 

[bud2380]

The Canadian barely shows anything.  Just a weak wave that dies just east of the Rockies, does show some snow into central NE, but that is as far east as it gets.  

[jaster220]

Temps actually rose overnight so DTW's high of 61F was around 3 am, lol. CF thru and in the 40s already. We'll see how far she can fall before midnight to offset that warm surge overnight.

[jaster220]

5 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

The Canadian barely shows anything.  Just a weak wave that dies just east of the Rockies, does show some snow into central NE, but that is as far east as it gets.  

The problem is we need this to be more like hr72, not hr192

[bud2380]

3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

The problem is we need this to be more like hr72, not hr192

No doubt, but it's all we have to work with right now.  So continue to monitor.  

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, bud2380 said:

12z GFS showing the Black Friday (into Saturday) snow potential still.

 

This is going to be fun to track next week.  The Euro and GFS are close with one another but the AO and NAO look like they may plunge deep negative sooner than later.  Blocking gives the models major trouble and we will see some wild runs.  I do think the AO going negative will help eastern Kansas and western MO be in the game on this one.  Beyond this storm the pattern continues to look great for Winter weather on both models.

[hawkstwelve]

12z Euro looking pretty nice for some NE/KS/IA/MO folks.

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z Euro looking pretty nice for some NE/KS/IA/MO folks.

Whoa. Just picked up the last leaves that blew in. Might need the snowblower next weekend if this verifies. 

[Black Hole]

The extended ECMWF has a decent snowfall across most of OK in the day 10-12 period. The EPS also jumped up quite a bit. Still probably only a 20% chance or so in reality, but I'll take those odds! 

[Clinton]

EAX makes mention of winter weather being possible on black Friday.

An additional chance for
precipitation becomes possible on Friday. Right now there are some
differences in models, but with the cold air already in place,
winter weather is a possibility. Given this remains 7 days out,
confidence remains low on how this may impact the forecast area.
Since it`s the day after Thanksgiving and there may be a lot of
travel, be sure to pay attention to the forecast in the coming days
as you make travel plans. Overall, at this point major or
widespread impacts don`t look likely, but this will certainly be
something to monitor in the coming days.

[mlgamer]

12 minutes ago, Clinton said:

EAX makes mention of winter weather being possible on black Friday.

An additional chance for
precipitation becomes possible on Friday. Right now there are some
differences in models, but with the cold air already in place,
winter weather is a possibility. Given this remains 7 days out,
confidence remains low on how this may impact the forecast area.
Since it`s the day after Thanksgiving and there may be a lot of
travel, be sure to pay attention to the forecast in the coming days
as you make travel plans. Overall, at this point major or
widespread impacts don`t look likely, but this will certainly be
something to monitor in the coming days.

TOP has similar wording. My point forecast shows a 20% chance for snow Friday with a high of 41, so there's that. 

[jaster220]

From a balmy almost HOT overnight in the low 60s to the 20s before the wx day ends. Pretty impressive for this place. Outside the UHI mid-20s are common already.

[westMJim]

With clear skies the temperature fell to 23 here in MBY and that is the current reading here as well.

We are now just past mid-month so it is time to take a mid-month summery. At Grand Rapids the 1st 16 days have a mean of 44.9 that is +2.7 above average. The high for the month should be the 66 that was on the 16th (here in MBY I had 68) the low so far this month is the 24 that occurred on the 1st.  So far there has been just 0.78” of rain fall that is below the average to date of 1.87” There has been just a trace of snow fall and that is below the average of 2.7” to date. There have been a total of 337 HDD’s and that is -48. At Lansing their mean is 44.2 that is +2.3 the total precipitation at Lansing is 1.01” and that is a departure of -0.39” there has not been any snowfall this month yet at Lansing the average for the 1st 16 days is 1.3” The high/low for the month at Lansing is also 66/24. At Muskegon the mean so far is 46.3 that is a departure of +3.0. the high for the month has been 63 and the low so far in 20. After a record snow fall of 8.8” on October 31st there has been no snowfall so far in November so far. The average for the 1st 16 days is 2.1” The total precipitation so far is 1.04” that is below the average of 1.73” At Holland the mean there so far is 45.3 for a departure of +2.4. there has been just 0.48” of precipitation that is below the average of 1.95” The do not keep snow fall records at Holland. We will now have to see how the rest of November will play out.

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 62/33 that 62 was recorded at 2:20AM. There was 0.07” of rain fall, the highest wind speed was 42MPH. The sun was out 50% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 46/32 the record high of 70 was set in 1958 and 2016 the record low of 11 was set in 1959. The record rain fall of 1.68” fell in 1921 the record snow fall was 9.4” in 2014 the most snow on the ground was 8” in 2022, 2014 and 1986. Last year the H/L was 30/23 there was 7.0” of snow all and that 8” on the ground.

Southern Lower Michigan weather history SW Michigan

1958: Record high temperatures are set all across Lower Michigan as a southerly flow of air pushes afternoon high temperatures to around 70 degrees. At Muskegon, the temperature hits a record 71 degrees for the second day in a row.

2014: Arctic air prevails with high temperatures in the teens and heavy lake effect snow. Nearly 10 inches of snow falls at Grand Rapids, contributing to a record November total of 31 inches.

SE Michigan weather history

 2016, unusual late-season Autumn warmth shattered record highs for the date across the region. Detroit reached 73 degrees (breaking the previous record of 69 from 1941) while Flint and Saginaw both reached 71. Their previous records were 69 (1941) and 68 (1975) respectively.

Also on November 18, 1959, there were two days of record lows in Flint with 9 degrees on the 17th and 11 degrees on the 18th.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings Saturday morning disco:  

Deterministic and ensemble data has continued to show the potential for a shortwave disturbance to produce a swath of snow somewhere in the region on Black Friday into early Sat AM. Moisture with these types of systems is usually somewhat lacking, but a cold airmass in place ahead of and during the system suggests some above-climo snow-to- liquid ratios (SLRs) could help make up for this. While the official forecast only contains slight chance (about 20 percent) for snow at this time, it`s definitely worth noting that just-in 00Z EPS probs for accum snow have incr, and the deterministic EC has remained more consistent in producing a swath of snow compared to the sometimes dry, sometimes snowy GFS. As such, precip chances could very well incr over next few forecasts, and those with travel plans Fri PM into Sat AM will want to monitor these trends over the coming days. 

[Clinton]

5 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

NWS Hastings Saturday morning disco:  

Deterministic and ensemble data has continued to show the potential for a shortwave disturbance to produce a swath of snow somewhere in the region on Black Friday into early Sat AM. Moisture with these types of systems is usually somewhat lacking, but a cold airmass in place ahead of and during the system suggests some above-climo snow-to- liquid ratios (SLRs) could help make up for this. While the official forecast only contains slight chance (about 20 percent) for snow at this time, it`s definitely worth noting that just-in 00Z EPS probs for accum snow have incr, and the deterministic EC has remained more consistent in producing a swath of snow compared to the sometimes dry, sometimes snowy GFS. As such, precip chances could very well incr over next few forecasts, and those with travel plans Fri PM into Sat AM will want to monitor these trends over the coming days. 

Euro has a nice looking swath of snow, not the strongest looking system though. Lots of changes coming with this one as blocking will cause model mayhem lol 10:1 map

[CentralNebWeather]

19 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Euro has a nice looking swath of snow, not the strongest looking system though. Lots of changes coming with this one as blocking will cause model mayhem lol 10:1 map

Just to have something to track is exciting in November. Seems like it’s been too long since this has occurred. 

[gimmesnow]

38 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Euro has a nice looking swath of snow, not the strongest looking system though. Lots of changes coming with this one as blocking will cause model mayhem lol 10:1 map

That's pretty great, honestly. GFS even has some days with highs in the 20s after that snow. Snow in late November that has staying power is pretty awesome, considering last year was so bad we only really had an early window to make snow before it got too warm to even reach that point. Glad to see that developing, could easily be rain given how the last few novembers have gone.

[Black Hole]

I put together some slides from the ECMWF extended. Note I am calling it that because it has the same resolution as the operational even past day 10 and uses the same initial conditions so the ECMWF may as well be viewed as a 15 day model now. 

At any rate, this run still has the big picture of what we'd like to see down here with robust northeast flow forcing cold air into the Rockies. We see anomalous high pressure and cold air build along the east flank of the Rockies and then race south. Meanwhile that 2nd system ejects over the area from the WSW leading to a wintery precip chance. The ECMWF-ext then has a 2nd system bring a 2nd potential winter mix and even a 3rd up into KS and north at the end. 

I think the point is that it is highly likely that some of us get a good winter storm during this period but its not known who just yet.