November 2023 Observations and Discussion

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 40/30. There was a trace of rain/snow fall. There was 0% of sun. The highest wind of 31MPH was out of the E.  For today the average H/L is 45/31 the record high of 70 was set in 1913 and the record low of 10 was set in 2014. The wettest was 1.31” in 1979 the most snow fall was 4” in 1896 the most snow on the ground was 13” in 2000. Last year the H/L was 40/22 and there was 7” of snow on the ground. At the current time there is a cold rain falling with a temperature of 35. To the NE of the Grand Rapids metro area there is some light snow and freezing rain falling.

Weather history for SW lower Michigan for November 21

1880: Bitterly cold conditions prevail across Lower Michigan. It’s the coldest November day on record at Lansing with a high of only 12 degrees. The low of four below zero is the earliest subzero temperature on record there.

1913: Record warmth prevails across Lower Michigan with high temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s. The 70-degree reading at Grand Rapids is a late-season record.

Weather history for SE lower Michigan for November 21

2015, a record-setting snowstorm hit Southeast Michigan. Snow began early in the day and gradually increased in intensity with widespread snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour. A particularly intense band brought rates upwards of 3 inches per hour to Howell, where a storm total of 16.8 inches was reported. In fact, numerous locations reported snowfall amounts between 10 and 16.8 inches in Livingston and Oakland Counties. The NWS office in White Lake measured 15.5″ making it the largest snowstorm the office has seen since it was built in 1994.

1913, Detroit experienced record highs for two days with 67 degrees on the 21st and 69 degrees on the 22nd.

US weather history for November 21

November 21st – 23rd tornado outbreak was the 3rd largest outbreak in recorded history and one of the longest continuous outbreaks ever recorded. There was no break in tornado activity from 1:30 pm on the 21st when the tornadoes started in Texas until 7:30 am on the 23rd when the last tornadoes lifted in North Carolina. On this date, severe thunderstorms spawned six tornadoes within 70 minutes in the Houston metro area in Texas. At one time, there were three on the ground in Harris County. The strongest, an F4, tracked 20 miles through the eastern suburbs of Houston destroying 200 homes and damaging 1,000 more. In total, 23 tornadoes struck Mississippi and Alabama. An F4 tornado killed 12 people on a 128-mile track through 7 Mississippi counties. The deadliest tornado of 1992, an F4 tornado killed 12 people on a 128-mile path through 7 counties in Mississippi, one of the bodies was blown a quarter mile into a tree. 

 

[chescowxman]

Some of our neighbors to the west in Lancaster County have reported some light snow and sleet this morning. If we see some light precip making it his far east we may see some ourselves this AM. The steady rain should arrive around the 2pm hour today and last through about 4am Wednesday morning. Most models show a general 1.5" to 2.0" of rain. We are over 5.5" below normal in the rain department this year. After today dry weather should continue through the holiday weekend. Tomorrow looks to be our one day with above normal temps before a return to below normal weather for most of the next week.

Records for today: High 76 (1900) / Low 17 (1951) / Rain 2.29" (1952) / Snow 1.5" (2008)

[CentralNebWeather]

0z Euro. 

[tStacsh]

11 hours ago, jaster220 said:

@tStacsh

GEM hinting at a little action this coming Sunday night wrt LES

It keeps flashing that signal, but the local mets aren't confident yet.   

"ENSEMBLE SNOWFALL FORECASTS FOR   THE GFS AND CANADIAN SHOW A LOT OF SPREAD IN THIS PERIOD SO   CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. SUNDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN   TRAVEL SO THAT PERIOD WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TRENDS."

[Tom]

The 2nd storm for this Holiday week is finally back on the models and likely will be our next Storm Thread.  Glad to see moisture being shown out here in the 4 corners as the trough really digs into the SW.  Slowly but surely we are starting to see a better overall pattern for storms to track into my region, esp as we flip into DEC...how about a little bit of #SWFlow anyone???

[gimmesnow]

This transition stage when models can't figure anything out is the most exciting weather forecasting time of the season.

[bud2380]

GFS for the weekend system.  Increasing totals in Iowa a bit with each run.  We may have a shovelable event.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

18 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

GFS for the weekend system.  Increasing totals in Iowa a bit with each run.  We may have a shovelable event.

 

Euro and GFS are fairly similar in amounts. 

[bud2380]

UK

 

[bud2380]

For those further west.  Here is the UK again.  Really nice event shaping up for the NW half of KS and south central and SW NE.  

 

[Clinton]

Canadian on board also.

[bud2380]

Euro is pretty weak this way, but the general idea is there.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

[hawkstwelve]

The GFS has fallen off a cliff in recent 500mb pattern skill scores. Ouch. 

[Clinton]

Started a thread for the weekend system.

[jaster220]

I see my sister out in far SWSD is under a Winter Storm Watch now. They thought that the earlier storm would hit them, but it ended up a bit too far N. Maybe this will work out for them.

 

[jaster220]

14 hours ago, tStacsh said:

It keeps flashing that signal, but the local mets aren't confident yet.   

"ENSEMBLE SNOWFALL FORECASTS FOR   THE GFS AND CANADIAN SHOW A LOT OF SPREAD IN THIS PERIOD SO   CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. SUNDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN   TRAVEL SO THAT PERIOD WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TRENDS."

Hmm. I just read their AFD written by Duke and he sounded quite convinced there will be something happening. 

[Tom]

Happy Hump Day!  Do you guys feel the Holiday spirit?  The days are getting cooler and especially the mornings out here as winter is settling in out here in AZ.  My sister and her Family flew in late on Saturday so we have been pretty occupied.  I'm so looking forward to some good ol' family time for Thanksgiving tomorrow.  Temps today should be about avg in the mid 70's and about the same tomorrow.  Make it a great day!

 

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 40/34 there was cold rain with 0.74” falling. There was no sunshine the highest wind speed was 27 MPH out of the E. For today the average H/L is 44/31 the high highest for the day is 66 in 1913 the record low of 13 was set in 1929 the record rain fall of 1.38” fell in 2010. The record snow fall of 7” fell in 1898 the most snow on the ground was 11” in 2000. Last year the H/L was 42/18 and there was 4” of snow on the ground.

SW Michigan weather history for November 22

1866: Seven inches of snow piles up in Lansing as temperatures plunge to the single digits.

1963: President John Kennedy is assassinated in Dallas, Texas. The weather in Lower Michigan is unusually warm with morning lows around 50 degrees and afternoon highs in the 60s. The month ends up being one of the warmest November on record.

SE Michigan weather history for November 22

 1880, there was an exceptionally early cold wave in Detroit which commenced on the 18th and lasted 6 days all with record lows with the bottom hitting zero on the 22nd. This resulted from an arctic high pressure measuring near 31.00″ over Ohio.

1909, 2.59″ of precipitation fell in Detroit. This is the record maximum precipitation for the month of November in Detroit.

US weather history for November 22

1992: 45 tornadoes touched down in the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Georgia was hard hit with two F4, one F3, and three F2 tornadoes that killed six people and injured 144. Indiana had a total of 15 tornadoes on this day to set a record for an outbreak in November and for the month of November. One, an F4 multiple-vortex type, cut a 22-mile path through extreme southeastern Indiana and northern Kentucky. This tornado debunked the myth that twisters don’t cross rivers, as this devastating tornado crossed the Ohio River twice. Indiana had a total of 15 tornadoes on this day to set two state records, the largest November tornado outbreak, and the most tornadoes in November. This tornado outbreak made a significant contribution to what was to become the biggest November ever for the U.S. concerning the number of tornadoes.

 

[hawkstwelve]

Not much to talk about system-wise, at least for up here, so let's take a look at temperatures instead: today marks our last day of an average temperature at freezing or above. Tomorrow, our average temperature drops to 31 and won't hit freezing again until March 10. Hello winter! 

[Tom]

My LR call for 2 storms this week is manifesting as we speak, but my attn is now focused on the development of a -NAO as we flip the Calendar into MET Winter.  Where is that Greenland Block?  It appears its a knockin' on the door step at the tail end of this month.  This will have a big influence in the storm track during the 1st part of DEC.  

0z EPS...

 

 

[tStacsh]

9 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Hmm. I just read their AFD written by Duke and he sounded quite convinced there will be something happening. 

Yeah.  Looking a little better, but still so much spread on the models on how this evolves.   Looks like at least some light snow is a possibility though for most of SMI.  Could be pretty decent in WMI if everything comes together for a LES event.  

[gimmesnow]

22 hours ago, sumweatherdude said:

Wow, no wonder the people in the PNW on the snowboard forum I go to are crying like babies.

[chescowxman]

We picked up a total of 2.07" of rain with 0.49" falling since midnight. The 1.58" that fell yesterday was our largest single day rain total since the 2.55" that fell on September 24th. A couple of dry and seasonably chilly days will take us through Thanksgiving Day with highs today just north of 50 and tomorrow likely staying in the 40's it most spots. Much colder by Friday through the weekend with highs on Saturday remaining in the 30's. There is a slim chance at some snow or rain showers by Sunday night.

Records for today: High 72 (1931) / Low 13 (1964) / Rain 1.86" (1991) / Snow 1.7" (1989)

[Tom]

12z Euro with some brutal Polar Vortex type cold near Hudson Bay next week....5 straight days of -10F to -20F day time highs!  Novembrrrrrr!!!!

 

[Tom]

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!  As we gather around the dinner table later today, this holiday reminds us to be grateful for one another.  A simple gesture by saying "thank you" with a smile goes a long way.  The simple things in life somehow are forgotten in our busy lives.  I want to thank you all for being a part of this growing community.  Hope you all enjoy this wonderful Thanksgiving Day!

[Clinton]

5 minutes ago, Tom said:

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!  As we gather around the dinner table later today, this holiday reminds us to be grateful for one another.  A simple gesture by saying "thank you" with a smile goes a long way.  The simple things in life somehow are forgotten in our busy lives.  I want to thank you all for being a part of this growing community.  Hope you all enjoy this wonderful Thanksgiving Day!

Happy Thanksgiving to you as well! 

[jaster220]

14 hours ago, Tom said:

12z Euro with some brutal Polar Vortex type cold near Hudson Bay next week....5 straight days of -10F to -20F day time highs!  Novembrrrrrr!!!!

 

Gotta believe its just a matter of time until something like that comes down in Feb 2015 fashion. There was 0F temps just north of Superior that caused the 11-16-89 bliz. Your map is later in the month and even colder so probably on the same order of magnitude. I don't track Canadien temps but would imagine it is not too common an occurrence.

I figured since you were out west now, I'd maybe beat you to the holiday greeting. LOL * nope!

Happy Thanksgiving to you and everyone on this Sub. I really appreciate the time many of you invest to help the rest of us better understand how things are looking down the road. 

 

[westMJim]

Happy Thanksgiving! The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 42/32 there was no rain or snow. The sun was out just 8% of the time. The highest wind speed was 24 MPH out of the N. For today the average H/L is 44/31 the record high of 70 was set in 1931 and the record low of 2 was set in 1956. The wettest November 23 was 1.16” in 2014. The most snow fall of 3.4” was in 1970. The most snow on the ground was 6” in 2000. Last year the H/L was 49/22 and there was 3” of snow on the ground. The current temperature here in MBY is the overnight low so far of 32.

Southerner Lower  Michigan weather history for November 23

1931: A record late warm spell peaks on this date with a high of 70 degrees at Grand Rapids setting a record for the warmest temperature so late in the season. It is the warmest November on record at Grand Rapids and Muskegon.

 1880, the overnight temperature dropped to 8 degrees in Detroit, setting the record low temperature for the day. This also marked the sixth day in a row (November 18-23) of record low temperatures, including a record low of 0 degrees set on November 22, 1880, which is also the record low temperature for the entire month of November in Detroit!

1912: The Rouse Simmons was a three-masted schooner famous for sinking during a violent storm on Lake Michigan on this day. The ship was bound for Chicago with a cargo of Christmas trees when it foundered off the coast of Two Rivers, Wisconsin, killing all on board. 

 

[Tom]

38 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Gotta believe its just a matter of time until something like that comes down in Feb 2015 fashion. There was 0F temps just north of Superior that caused the 11-16-89 bliz. Your map is later in the month and even colder so probably on the same order of magnitude. I don't track Canadien temps but would imagine it is not too common an occurrence.

I figured since you were out west now, I'd maybe beat you to the holiday greeting. LOL * nope!

Happy Thanksgiving to you and everyone on this Sub. I really appreciate the time many of you invest to help the rest of us better understand how things are looking down the road. 

 

I appreciate you and everyone's contributions to this forum...we have such a far reaching Sub that pretty much has members stationed from the East Coast to the West Coast!   I enjoy reading all the posts that come in from all parts of our Great Nation.

[Tom]

Hey...Yo...How about that -NAO???  I see you...Right on Cue... @Madtownthis will help you kick start your ice rink...

0z EPS...Boy, I love when a plan comes together...talk about great timing as Flip the Calendar into MET Winter.  Classic -NAO that shifts towards a West-Based Greenland Block....those are the Golden Blocking patterns for the MW/Plains/Lower Lakes.

 

What beautiful 500mb animation...this development certainly is going to throw a wrench in the warm up for the GL's/MW/OHV region to open up DEC.

[Tom]

The latest Week 2 off the JMA weeklies...looking similar to the 0z EPS I posted above...

 

 

Temps...Now with Canada mostly covered with snow, anytime you get an HP to settle down from the Canadian Prairies, it will SEED the COLD...just need one or two PAC waves or Arctic Clippers to traverse the southern region near Alberta and fill up those snow holes and into the Dakotas.

 

 

Week 3-4..."Open up the Alaskan Ridge"...last week it didn't show this, but this week the JMA is starting to "See" the Alaskan Connection from NW NAMER all the way across Canada.  I like what I'm seeing as we head deeper into DEC and the Winter Solstice. 

[Up_north_MI]

59 minutes ago, Tom said:

The latest Week 2 off the JMA weeklies...looking similar to the 0z EPS I posted above...

 

 

Temps...Now with Canada mostly covered with snow, anytime you get an HP to settle down from the Canadian Prairies, it will SEED the COLD...just need one or two PAC waves or Arctic Clippers to traverse the southern region near Alberta and fill up those snow holes and into the Dakotas.

 

 

Week 3-4..."Open up the Alaskan Ridge"...last week it didn't show this, but this week the JMA is starting to "See" the Alaskan Connection from NW NAMER all the way across Canada.  I like what I'm seeing as we head deeper into DEC and the Winter Solstice. 

Hope the models are on to something and we switch to a winter type pattern in a couple weeks and stay in it through the holiday’s, that would be great. Here in northern lower MI we don’t have any snow on the ground at this time which normally means it will be a cold Christmas period. I base this off of weather observation over the past 22 years of having a place up here and not weather forecasting so we’ll see what happens. Very rarely does a cold and white thanksgiving up here get followed by a cold and white Christmas it seems.

[chescowxman]

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!

Should be a great stretch of seasonably chilly weather with generally below normal temperatures over the next week as we move into December. The coldest day looks to be Saturday where some of the higher spots may struggle to escape the mid-30's The only chance of rain or a bit of mixed snow looks to be on Sunday evening.

Records for today: High 73 (1931) / Low 11 (1989) / Rain 1.30" (1961) / Snow 2.9" (1989)

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Up_north_MI said:

Hope the models are on to something and we switch to a winter type pattern in a couple weeks and stay in it through the holiday’s, that would be great. Here in northern lower MI we don’t have any snow on the ground at this time which normally means it will be a cold Christmas period. I base this off of weather observation over the past 22 years of having a place up here and not weather forecasting so we’ll see what happens. Very rarely does a cold and white thanksgiving up here get followed by a cold and white Christmas it seems.

As you say, rare. Based on 22 yrs I don't think you remember the one that sticks in my memory which was Nov/Dec '95. There were at least 2 storms in November and it just kept going into and through December. Whitest Christmas of my life.

Houghton Lake had 4" OTG on the 23rd for Thanksgiving, and then was ground-zero for the storm a few days later.

[Iceresistance]

On 11/21/2023 at 10:36 PM, hawkstwelve said:

The GFS has fallen off a cliff in recent 500mb pattern skill scores. Ouch. 

Oof, it's part of a pattern change ongoing right now

[james1976]

Happy Thanksgiving everyone. Unfortunately I'm covid positive so I'll be set up in the bedroom. But I can still watch football and the wife will bring what I need.

As for the weather it's looking very boring in the TC. Looking like no more precip for the rest of November which means we will set a record of 0.02" for the month. MPX is calling for above normal temps for the first week of Dec. Hopefully we can get some active weather going.

[hawkstwelve]

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone! I know I’m thankful that when I left my well-understood PNW climate last year I was able to join this side of the forum and be able to quickly start learning a whole new climate area of the country. I have benefited from and very much enjoyed everyone’s contributions on here. 

Hope you all have a peaceful and joyous holiday season, and here’s to the many upcoming snowstorms!

[Tom]

It's a bit chilly this morning as it has dipped down to the coolest temps yet (47F)...had to flip the Furnace on for the 1st time this season.  Happy Black Friday and score some deals today if your out shopping.  I gotta burn off some calories from all the phenomenal food and desserts!  Good times with the family.

 

[Black Hole]

16 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone! I know I’m thankful that when I left my well-understood PNW climate last year I was able to join this side of the forum and be able to quickly start learning a whole new climate area of the country. I have benefited from and very much enjoyed everyone’s contributions on here. 

Hope you all have a peaceful and joyous holiday season, and here’s to the many upcoming snowstorms!

The same for me. Been here 13 months now and learned a lot.