November 2023 Observations and Discussion

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 48/27 there was no rain or snow. The sun was out 44% of the possible time. The highest wind speed was 23 MPH out of the NW. For today the average H/L is 44/30 the record high of 66 was set in 1931 the record low of -9 was set in 1950 This is the earliest date for a low of below 0 and yesterday was the last day of the season with a high of 70 or better. The wettest November 24^th was 1.03” in 1973 and the most snow fall of 9.7” was in 2004. The most on the ground was 5” in 2000. Last year the H/L was 46/30 and there was 2” of snow on the ground.

While the official over night low so far is 23 here in MBY I had a low of 18. The official low of 23 and my low of 18 are both the coldest lows so far this winter season. 

[westMJim]

Weather history for SW lower Michigan.

1950: A massive storm moves through the northeast United States, producing blizzard conditions and record low pressure, and drawing extremely cold arctic air south across Michigan. The bitterly cold air results in high temperatures only around 10 degrees, with record lows down to nine below zero at Grand Rapids.

Weather history for SE lower Michigan

2001 A potent storm system lifted out of the Southern Plains and moved through the Central and Eastern Great Lakes region this particular Thanksgiving Eve. The precipitation started as rain but changed to snow as the cold air filtered into the storm. Snowfall rates exceeded an inch per hour for a period, as thundersnow was reported. Due to the convective nature of the wet snow, snowfall accumulations varied significantly within and across the counties, generally ranging from 2 to 8 inches. Gusty northeast winds of 30 to 40 mph further aggravated the situation, causing scattered power outages, and reducing visibilities to a quarter of a mile or less at times. Some of the higher snowfall reports that were received included Poseyville (Midland county), 9.2 inches; Auburn (Bay county), 6.4 inches; 7 miles west of Flint (Genesee county), 8.1 inches; Fairgrove (Tuscola county), 5.0 inches; Elba Township (Lapeer county), 5.7 inches; Howell (Livingston county), 5.5 inches; Saginaw (Saginaw county), 8.2 inches; Bennington (Shiawassee county), 6.5 inches.

 

[Tom]

Gotta love the data that's coming in for the early part of DEC...some of those LR tools I lean on to predict where blocking develops appear to be working out in our Sub's favor.  How about we BOTH get a taste of that Winter Flavor???  I am really diggin'...how the troughs are Diggin' (pun intended) into the So CAL/4 Corners right at the end of NOV into the opening days of DEC.  How cool would it be for me to track my first real snows up in the mountains of AZ and our members into the Central CONUS??  #LFG

It's a rare scenario, but it is pretty darn likely that the amount of blocking that is going to evolve across Canada and the NE PAC will in FACT create a bonafide SW Flow.  Multiple systems are to track out of the SW into the Midwest as we open up DEC.  Check out the changes happening in the 500mb pattern.  It's not only the GEFS but the Canadian ensemble and EPS are suggesting the same.  #WaveTrain...Chooo chooo!!!

 

 

 

Our central/southern members will need to start paying attn to a couple systems post Dec 5th....there is a classic Southern Stream storm track to develop and head into the MW/OHV...Let it Snow!

 

[Clinton]

23 minutes ago, Tom said:

Gotta love the data that's coming in for the early part of DEC...some of those LR tools I lean on to predict where blocking develops appear to be working out in our Sub's favor.  How about we BOTH get a taste of that Winter Flavor???  I am really diggin'...how the troughs are Diggin' (pun intended) into the So CAL/4 Corners right at the end of NOV into the opening days of DEC.  How cool would it be for me to track my first real snows up in the mountains of AZ and our members into the Central CONUS??  #LFG

It's a rare scenario, but it is pretty darn likely that the amount of blocking that is going to evolve across Canada and the NE PAC will in FACT create a bonafide SW Flow.  Multiple systems are to track out of the SW into the Midwest as we open up DEC.  Check out the changes happening in the 500mb pattern.  It's not only the GEFS but the Canadian ensemble and EPS are suggesting the same.  #WaveTrain...Chooo chooo!!!

 

 

 

Our central/southern members will need to start paying attn to a couple systems post Dec 5th....there is a classic Southern Stream storm track to develop and head into the MW/OHV...Let it Snow!

 

Euro has a bid dog to open the month, it will be interesting to see how this one goes.  Someone is going to get a dump of snow.

[Tom]

It's nice to see the Euro Weeklies MJO forecast veer out of Phase 3/4 quickly into the Null phase and a pretty good possibility back into the colder phases as we roll deeper into DEC.  Does it seem like this year the models are trending away from teleconnections that produce unfavorable outcomes as we get closer in time?

 

 

[Black Hole]

17 minutes ago, Tom said:

It's nice to see the Euro Weeklies MJO forecast veer out of Phase 3/4 quickly into the Null phase and a pretty good possibility back into the colder phases as we roll deeper into DEC.  Does it seem like this year the models are trending away from teleconnections that produce unfavorable outcomes as we get closer in time?

 

 

This was definitely what I was expected and hoping to see. Glad it's actually verifying! 

[Black Hole]

50 minutes ago, Tom said:

Gotta love the data that's coming in for the early part of DEC...some of those LR tools I lean on to predict where blocking develops appear to be working out in our Sub's favor.  How about we BOTH get a taste of that Winter Flavor???  I am really diggin'...how the troughs are Diggin' (pun intended) into the So CAL/4 Corners right at the end of NOV into the opening days of DEC.  How cool would it be for me to track my first real snows up in the mountains of AZ and our members into the Central CONUS??  #LFG

It's a rare scenario, but it is pretty darn likely that the amount of blocking that is going to evolve across Canada and the NE PAC will in FACT create a bonafide SW Flow.  Multiple systems are to track out of the SW into the Midwest as we open up DEC.  Check out the changes happening in the 500mb pattern.  It's not only the GEFS but the Canadian ensemble and EPS are suggesting the same.  #WaveTrain...Chooo chooo!!!

 

 

 

Our central/southern members will need to start paying attn to a couple systems post Dec 5th....there is a classic Southern Stream storm track to develop and head into the MW/OHV...Let it Snow!

 

Definitely looks good for a number of members on here. For me I'd say it's still a bit too far east with the trough and the west coast ridge needs some more amplification but at around 300 hours out that may be what actually happens. I'm hoping. 

[chescowxman]

We should see much of the last week here in November finish with below normal temperatures. Dry weather is also likely with the exception of some showers on Sunday night.

Records for today: High 69 (1979) / Low 10 (1989) / Rain 2.08" (1950) / Snow 5.3" (1898)

[chescowxman]

So how much of a historical chance does Chester County PA have at a White Christmas? The answer is our climate delivers on the dream of a White Christmas on average 1 time every 4 years. The longest stretch without such a holiday was 16 years.

[Black Hole]

Starting to see some ensemble support building for a return to potentially interesting weather in mid December. Here is the CMCE with a +PNA and retracted Aleutian low supporting downstream troughing across the eastern USA. You can also see evidence of the STJ with reduced heights back into the SW. Certainly possible this becomes a good storm for somebody. 

[jaster220]

8 hours ago, Tom said:

It's a bit chilly this morning as it has dipped down to the coolest temps yet (47F)...had to flip the Furnace on for the 1st time this season.  Happy Black Friday and score some deals today if your out shopping.  I gotta burn off some calories from all the phenomenal food and desserts!  Good times with the family.

 

Was 24F this morning and a balmy 34F when I went out about 1 pm. I already did the winter sealing where needed so it has been quite cozy and the furnace has barely run. I remember it running once or twice overnight. 

[james1976]

18z GFS is showing the system as well for 1st of the month. Let see if we can get a legit storm going.

[jaster220]

Temps have crashed like a meteor shower after dark. Even some mid-teens outside the UHI

[westMJim]

Here is where Grand Rapids now stands on some 1^st and last so far this fall/winter season.  On the 1^st side GR has already reached the 1^st 32° low back on October 23^rd that was later than average but by just 2 days. The first hard freeze of 28 or lower was reached on October 31^st that was also just 2 days later than average. With a low of 24 on November GR reached the 1^st very hard freeze of 25 or lower that was reached 7 days earlier than average. On the warm side of things the last 80° day or better this fall was on October 4^th and that is 4 days later than average. The last 75 or warmer high was on October 24^th and that is 10 days later than average. That October 24^th was also the last day of 70 or better and that is the average last day of 70 or better. With a high of 66 on November 16^th that was probably the last day of 65 or better the average day of the last high of 65 or better is November 5^th so this year was later than average. With the most snow fall of 0.4” on October 31 Grand Rapids is yet to have recorded its 1^st one inch or more snow fall. That average 1^st inch snow fall is November 19^th the latest is December 24^th 2020. Looking ahead the average 1^st 3” snow fall is December 5^th In 1949 it did not happen until March 16^th the. That was for the winter of 1948/49 that winter the 1^st and last 1^st 3” snow fall was on the same day.   The winter of 1948/49 Grand Rapids only had 33.2” of snow fall.   Not every winter season has a 6” snow fall the last time that happened was the winter season of 2018/19. Surprising the winter season of 2018/19 had 81.3” with the most one day snow fall of 5.1” on February 12^th 2019. There were several days on 5” of snow fall. And the snow season extended into April with 4.1” on April 14^th 2019.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 34/23 (I had a low of 18 here in MBY) there was no snow or rain fall. The highest wind gust of 26 MPH was out of the N. There was 99% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 43/30 the record high of 65 was set in 1908 and the record low of -10 was set in 1950 that -10 is the record low for the month of November at Grand Rapids. The wettest November 25th was in 1979 with 1.39” of rain fall. The largest snowfall of 3.5” fell in 2005 the most on the ground was 8” in 2004. Last year the H/L was 48/32.

[Tom]

18 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Starting to see some ensemble support building for a return to potentially interesting weather in mid December. Here is the CMCE with a +PNA and retracted Aleutian low supporting downstream troughing across the eastern USA. You can also see evidence of the STJ with reduced heights back into the SW. Certainly possible this becomes a good storm for somebody. 

I LOVE seeing the "Southwest to Midwest Connection"...gosh, could this really be the year that brings the Winter fun for most of us???

[jaster220]

Some serious chill out there this morning. DTW at 21F while AA to my west is up a bit from its low of 13F. Guessing I am somewhere in between here in Canton.

[Tom]

In other news, on the other side of the pound, Mt Etna erupts with a snowy landscape...

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-67529861

[jaster220]

@westMJim

Quote

Not every winter season has a 6” snow fall the last time that happened was the winter season of 2018/19. Surprising the winter season of 2018/19 had 81.3” with the most one day snow fall of 5.1” on February 12^th 2019. There were several days on 5” of snow fall. And the snow season extended into April with 4.1” on April 14^th 2019.

Possibly you have the wrong year? 2018-19 was remembered for the strong storm in late January, given a huge boost with LES burying GR and most of the lakeshore. Also, sometimes I find errors in the database like an obvious mis-entered 50" snow depth at Flint which should've been "0" depth.

Here's the late Jan 2019 storm:

 

[Timmy Supercell]

28 for a low this morning. Sun is out and not a cloud seen.

Some rain arriving tomorrow, probably not much.

[gimmesnow]

They already made some killer progress blowing snow the last few nights, and they have a window from sunday evening to wednesday morning to make tons of snow. This is already shaping up to be a weird winter, all the resorts in the rockies and PNW are delaying their openings and midwest is going to open up strong by this weekend.

[Timmy Supercell]

I hardly consider November part of winter here. But on this day in 1950.. 

[chescowxman]

This morning was the coldest morning here in East Nantmeal 24.1 degrees since the 22.5 degree reading back on March 19th. Today we will struggle to escape the 40's especially in the higher terrain of the county this is about 10 degrees colder than it should be for this time of the year. We warm up to the mid 40's tomorrow with some rain Sunday night before turning much colder again for mid week. Temperatures Tuesday will not get too far above freezing in some spots of Chester County.

Records for today: High 74 (1979) / Low 12 (1938) / Rain 2.11" (1964) / Snow 6.0" (1938)

[james1976]

Cold front will move through today with 40mph wind gusts and snowshowers. Should create a bit of a wintry scene finally!

[Hawkeye]

The first light snow of the season is falling here this morning.  It has dusted the ground a bit.

[james1976]

12z GFS with a waste of a storm late next week. No cold air and it also stays south of the TC.

[westMJim]

5 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Possibly you have the wrong year? 2018-19 was remembered for the strong storm in late January, given a huge boost with LES burying GR and most of the lakeshore. Also, sometimes I find errors in the database like an obvious mis-entered 50" snow depth at Flint which should've been "0" depth.

The way I put up the post may have been some what miss leading. But in the winter of 2018/19 there were no "days" meaning calendar days of 6" or more of snow fall. The event in January of 2019 was a 10 day event with a total of 25.9" at Grand Rapids. The most snow on one calendar day was 5" on January 29th The most one calendar day snow fall that winter season was 5.1" on February 12th 2019. The total for the days on the map January 28 to the 31 at Grand Rapids was 14.2"

Edited November 25, 2023 by westMJim
spelling mistake

[Hoosier]

6 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

I hardly consider November part of winter here. But on this day in 1950.. 

One of the greatest non-tropical storms of the 20th century in the eastern US.  Boards would've been hopping if they were around back then. 

[Clinton]

The AO and NAO are set to go negative, it should have a positive effect on the storm late next week.

[Clinton]

0z  runs of the GFS and Euro are very close to producing another snow for the same areas being effected by the current one.  Several ensembles show this and the CMC has it but slightly north of the other models.

For nerds like me just wanting some good moisture this system brings Pacific and Gulf moisture with it.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 34/18. That 18 is the coldest official low of the season so far. There was no rain or snow fall. The sun was out just 13% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 43/30 the record high of 65 was set in 1896 and the record low of 3 was set in 1949. The wettest November 26 was in 1965 with 1.16” of rain. The most snow fall is 5.7” in 1972 the most on the ground is 7” in 1950. Last year the H/L was 54/31. Still waiting for the snow to start. The current temperature is 29 with cloudy skies.

[westMJim]

Weather history for SW lower Michigan.

1896: Record warm temperatures in the 60s occur across Lower Michigan. The warmth does not last long, though. A sharp cold front is followed by plunging temperatures for the end of the month. The high of 64 degrees at Lansing is followed by a low of 18 degrees on the next day and a low of 8 degrees on November 30th.

1949: Lansing falls to 5 below zero, the lowest November temperature on record there.

Weather history for SE lower Michigan

2018, a low-pressure system with a history of producing more than a foot of snow and blizzard conditions over the central Plains moved into the Great Lakes. Locations in Saginaw and Tuscola Counties saw over 7 inches of snow, while locations in Sanilac, St. Clair, and Macomb Counties only saw a trace of snow or none at all. Flint did break their daily snowfall record for the day with 4.2 inches.

 2002, heavy lake effect snow developed over Lake Huron as cold north-northeasterly winds passed over the relatively warm waters of the lake. A lake effect snow band moved onshore in eastern St Clair County and far southeastern Sanilac County on the afternoon of the 26th. The band then remained nearly stationary through the rest of the afternoon and into the early morning hours of the 27th. The snow was the heaviest and persisted the longest in the city of Port Huron. By the morning of the 27th, 12-hour snowfall totaled 17 inches across the northern half of the city of Port Huron, while the south half reported amounts around 13 inches. In Sanilac County, 12-hour snowfall amounts were reported as; 8 inches in Lexington, Crosswell, and Applegate.

1977, snow continued to fall as cold air filtered into Southeast Michigan. The snow started on November 25 and continued into November 27. By the time it stopped snowing Detroit had 5.6 inches of new snow, Flint received 2.9 inches, and Saginaw recorded 6.0 inches.

1949, the overnight temperature dropped to a freezing -7 degrees in Flint! This is the record minimum temperature for the month of November in Flint.

Some US weather history for November 26th 

2007 Lightning and heavy rain delayed the start of the Monday Night Football game at Pittsburgh’s Heinz Field between the Miami Dolphins and the Pittsburgh Steelers by 25 minutes. The muddy field conditions contributed to one of the lowest-scoring NFL games won by the Steelers, 3-0. The teams combined 375 yards, and the winning field goal occurred with 17 seconds left in the game.

 

[chescowxman]

Shower chances will be on the increase today with a pretty big spread between west to east across the county with rainfall amounts by tomorrow morning. Greatest amounts over 0.75" will be to the east with maybe only 0.33" in western spots. Much colder air spills in again tomorrow PM. It will be windy and cold both Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday high temps will struggle to get too far above the freezing mark with wind chills in the teens to low 20's at times.

Records for today: High 70 (1896) / Low 5 (1938) / Rain 1.52" (1944) / Snow 5.3" (2014)

[Timmy Supercell]

The next 2 days will be very cold! Average high is maybe 50 right now? 37-39 Mon/Tue..

[hawkstwelve]

12z EPS showing signs of some agreement with a warm up starting around December 5th. It appears it could be brief, with some hints of a rapid transition to colder than normal conditions starting around the 9th. Not too much precip on the horizon for Sioux Falls but there does appear to be the potential centered around the 4th.

Any way it shakes out, I just sure hope December ends up more exciting than the snooze-fest that was November!

[Clinton]

Wet system for the deep south up through the Midwest to open up Dec.

[Timmy Supercell]

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 34/25. There was 0.11” of melted snow fall that ended up as 0.7” of snow fall. There was no sunshine and the highest wind gust was 29 MPH out of the W. For today the average H/L is 42/29 the record high of 65 was set in 1909 and 1990. The record low of 5 was set in 1977. The wettest November 27^th was 2.94” in 1990. The most snow fall of 3.8” fell in 1952. The most on the ground was 7” in 1950. Last year the H/L was 44/36 and there was 0.25” of rain fall. While the official snow fall for Grand Rapids was reported as 0.7" there is just a trace of snow on the ground here in MBY this morning with a current temperate of 27.

[westMJim]

Some Weather history for SW lower Michigan.

1930: What a difference a week makes. After record highs in the 70s only a week before, temperatures plunge to record low levels with high temperatures only around 15 degrees during the day.

1989: Severe weather strikes Lower Michigan with downburst winds and tornadoes. A tornado did a quarter million dollars of damage as it cut a six-mile path south of Portland in Ionia County. Another tornado caused minor damage over a three-mile-long path south of Durand in Shiawassee County.

Some weather history for SE lower Michigan

1995, a snowstorm hit the Saginaw Valley and continued into the early morning hours of November 28. The storm left Saginaw with 11.1 inches of snow. This was on top of an already cold and snowy month. Saginaw received 23.0 inches of snow! This made November 1995 the snowiest November in Saginaw history and also the 16th snowiest month of all time in Saginaw. Remarkably, in November 1995 Saginaw is the only November to appear in the top 20 monthly snowfalls for Saginaw, Flint, or Detroit.

USA weather history

1898 A powerful storm, known as the “Portland Gale” impacted the coastal areas of New England on November 26 – 27, 1898. The storm formed when two areas of low pressure merged off the coast of New Jersey and traveled up the east coast. This storm produced hurricane-force winds in Nantucket and sank more than 150 boats and ships

 

[Tom]

Back in the saddle after a couple days, we celebrated my sister's 40th out in Old Town Scottsdale and enjoyed some fine dinning at Toca Madero.  Great food and atmosphere but a little pricy for my liking.  Good times for sure!

Alright, now back to tracking the weather...the month will end with one more storm coming into So Cal and the 4 corners...is this the "LRC Slot"???  My gut says yes, esp as we get deeper into the Winter as the jet strengthens and the atmospheric drivers take over.  This storm tracks into TX and then Texarkana.  Where have we seen this before?  I'm really digging the pattern shaping up for the S Plains/MW/Lower Lakes region. 

After a lull in the colder pattern during the opening week of DEC (except northern members) where snow will fly around the 3rd/4th....however, once we get towards the 9th/10th, Ol' Man Winter is about to really settle into his domain across the Nation.  This Holiday season is going have a much different "FEEL", even out here in the AZ valley and up in the mountains where Snow has already started to fly.