November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[SpaceRace22]

11 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Snowfall on the extended ensemble should be taken about as seriously as the day 16 gfs operational

Hence why I said it was a "bonus" image.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er, well that's already a big improvement.

[Phishy Wx]

37 minutes ago, Phil said:

Nice! Looks like a midsummer storm.  

That funnel-looking thing is scud inflow ahead of the rain shaft/downdraft.

looks like a Cold Air Funnel to me

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Patience…

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er, that's beautiful

[Gradient Keeper]

Waiting for good things with GEFS tonight.

[Christensen87]

Yeah, what a beautiful storm on the 21st. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM Day 6-10. Canadian is going somewhere with the strengthening ridge over western Alaska and cold trough over BC. Yep!

[Gradient Keeper]

Back to the GFS. Day 10

[Phishy Wx]

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS re-cap. 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temperatures, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Phil]

26 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

looks like a Cold Air Funnel to me

Right next to the downdraft and outflow? I’m not seeing it there, though I suppose we can’t know for sure without a video of the cloud motion.

[RentonHill]

20 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GEM Day 6-10. Canadian is going somewhere with the strengthening ridge over western Alaska and cold trough over BC. Yep!

Looking down our checklist…next step is @TT-SEA the EPS whisperer to tell us if we can proceed or if it’s back to the pile 

[Cold Snap]

32 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 9'er, that's beautiful

Probably that same storm that the Euro control was showing around that time.

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Probably that same storm that the Euro control was showing around that time.

Indeed it is.

[RentonHill]

End of the GFS moves the whole PV into central Canada 

[Gradient Keeper]

GFS long range is fun. Should we talk about the ice storm for the Gorge on Thanksgiving(and after)? 925s shows definite low level cold to support this.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 8.5 (4-run trend)

[MossMan]

One more picture from earlier! 

[RentonHill]

You Go Canada 

[BLI snowman]

Feeling that storm on the 20th. Think that'll be the big prize this month.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 11. Here we go!

[Gradient Keeper]

It's about time for an improved Euro run, don't you think? Yeah.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[snow_wizard]

The models are looking pretty dry over the next week with a pretty major shut down of the Pacific coming up.  Can't wait to see how any cold weather unfolds over the next couple of weeks.

[snow_wizard]

48 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

GFS long range is fun. Should we talk about the ice storm for the Gorge on Thanksgiving(and after)? 925s shows definite low level cold to support this.

Pretty much unheard of in November.  The setup being shown by the GFS is very interesting though.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er, Transitory, but not terrible

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF re-cap. 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temperatures, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Phil]

I’m impressed at the degree of Alaskan blocking projected across guidance in the LR. It’s more than I would have expected to see at this point.