December 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Hoping we see a bit better pattern upstream over the Gulf of Alaska to western Alaska with a stronger ridge and improved amplification. That would promote the trough over British Columbia to dig more sharply down over us.

00z GFS in 20 minutes
00z ECMWF in 2 hours 30 minutes

[TT-SEA]

20 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Not me. I’m on vacation for a few more days and want to make the most of getting stuff done in and around the house. If I have more than 1 drink I am down for about a half day the next day, more than 2 drinks and I am useless all day the next day, and more than that and it takes days to feel normal again so I don’t bother. On top of that my wife and kids are in San Jose Del Cabo at our neighbors place right on the water with them so I would be drinking alone… And that is super boring. Just BBQ’d a burger and watching Sixteen Candles along with medding up my noise sensitive dog since the distant booms are already happening. 

Same for me... two is my limit or I feel terrible the next day and its not worth  it.   And don't think I have ever drank alone. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Same for me... two is my limit or I feel terrible the next day and its not worth  it.   And don't think I have ever drank alone. 

When I drink alone I prefer to be by myself.

Btw, released during a VERY chilly early February 1985.

[AbbyJr]

Major SSW/PV split is still on the table.

 

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, AbbyJr said:

Major SSW/PV split still on the table.

 

 

HERE WE GO (yes the shots have begun). I’ll still ride the 00z

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, AbbyJr said:

Major SSW/PV split is still on the table.

 

 

Outstanding. Thanks for posting!

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Major SSW/PV split is still on the table.

 

 

The 18z GFS split it like that too.

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks like this Dec is going to be our 6th hottest ever.

10th hottest Nov-Dec back to back.

Depressing.

Model riding is frustrating. It's like that NFL sports discord we're both on. Right now everyone is anxious about NFL speculation of game times for the next two weeks and we're like that for the models.

Currently is is 39F here. 

[AbbyJr]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Outstanding. Thanks for posting!

Anytime. But it's still too early to get excited. No guarantees but it's nice to see that a major SSW/PV split is still possible.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

HERE WE GO (yes the shots have begun). I’ll still ride the 00z

Could be fun in a drunken state.

[AbbyJr]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 18z GFS split it like that too.

Perhaps the Euro extended is struggling due to the low resolution? Although the higher resolution EPS was the first to back off on the wind reversal. Just goes to show that even stratospheric modelling is full of bumps along the ride.

[Front Ranger]

55 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

An absolutely iconic troll. 

You'll get there, Andrew.

[Gradient Keeper]

New Year's Eve

12/31/23 7:39 pm

I just wanted to real quickly wish everyone a Happy New Year. Another year has come and gone. Thanks to @iFred for running the forum and giving weather geeks and geekstresses a great outlet for weather discussion. I hope during the coming New Year that you all have good health, many laughs, and create new, great memories.

 

Now, let's get some Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!!

-Rob

[MossMan]

I will be ringing in the new year with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and June Cleaver! 

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Same for me... two is my limit or I feel terrible the next day and its not worth  it.   And don't think I have ever drank alone. 

I used to smoke pot alone about 35 years back.  Have to admit it was fun.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1 (4-run trend)

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

New Year's Eve

12/31/23 7:39 pm

I just wanted to real quickly wish everyone a Happy New Year. Another year has come and gone. Thanks to @iFred for running the forum and giving weather geeks and geekstresses a great outlet for weather discussion. I hope during the coming New Year that you all have good health, many laughs, and create new, great memories.

 

Now, let's get some Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!!

-Rob

I'll be glad when this year is over.  It has been very sad for me on a personal level.  In fact this entire decade has really been awful on a number of fronts.  Still good times mixed in of course.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I will be ringing in the new year with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and June Cleaver! 

Unquestionably the best spoof movie ever made.  Just priceless!

Amazing they were able to boil it down to a one sentence synopsis.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I will be ringing in the new year with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and June Cleaver! 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I used to smoke pot alone about 35 years back.  Have to admit it was fun.

Just being alone is satisfying to me. 

[AbbyJr]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'll be glad when this year is over.  It has been very sad for me on a personal level.  In fact this entire decade has really been awful on a number of fronts.  Still good times mixed in of course.

I'm so sorry to hear. I hope the new year is better for you.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Unquestionably the best spoof movie ever made.  Just priceless!

Amazing they were able to boil it down to a one sentence synopsis.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 (4-run trend)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I'll be glad when this year is over.  It has been very sad for me on a personal level.  In fact this entire decade has really been awful on a number of fronts.  Still good times mixed in of course.

I don't have much hope for 2024. 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just being alone is satisfying to me. 

I would feel the same way with 5 young kids!  

[snow_wizard]

39 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

That’s not entirely true because the models are full of parameterizations that are not necessarily physical. I think two big issues are the low resolution of complex terrain and limited number of vertical levels failing to resolve shallow nature of extreme cold air masses. Once the extreme cold air gets into western Canada and Alaska where it is sampled by more radiosondes and starts moving through complex terrain the models back off every time. 
 

I do think in the current climate it is possibly for Seattle to get single digits if there is a deep snowpack on the ground followed by a calm clear night. 

I'm sure SEA can still do single digits.  Their last one may have been Feb 1989.

[Front Ranger]

23 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

When I drink alone I prefer to be by myself.

Btw, released during a VERY chilly early February 1985.

I saw this song performed live (admittedly with very little knowledge of it or the artist) at Red Rocks in 2013.

Big events in December and February followed for you guys!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I'm sure SEA can still do single digits.  Their last one may have been Feb 1989.

SLE hasn't gone below 0 since February 1989 either. I bet they still could, they hit 7 in 2013 with essentially no snow cover. If that line of snow had been 20-30 miles further north they would have probably done it then. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (4-run trend)

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't have much hope for 2024. 

Hopefully we see a little more of happy Andrew in 2024

[Gradient Keeper]

I might be crazy(?), but I think Seattle and Portland could both pull off not only single digits, but below zero temps. Obviously it would take some special blocking and the PV to be favorably placed in western Canada. I really do. I rule out nothing.

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I would feel the same way with 5 young kids!  

I miss my kids but at the same time I’m enjoying the quiet lol! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

I might be crazy(?), but I think Seattle and Portland could both pull off not only single digits, but below zero temps. Obviously it would take some special blocking and the PV to be favorably placed in western Canada. I really do. I rule out nothing.

I wrote a sci-fi novel about this scenario, but no one would publish it.

[Front Ranger]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm sure SEA can still do single digits.  Their last one may have been Feb 1989.

More than half of all SEA's single digit lows occurred during a one month period...

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (4-run trend)

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I might be crazy(?), but I think Seattle and Portland could both pull off not only single digits, but below zero temps. Obviously it would take some special blocking and the PV to be favorably placed in western Canada. I really do. I rule out nothing.

I wonder what the lowest temp SEA has seen in the last few decades. My lowest was at my old house (west of Smokey Point) at -4 degrees in December 2008. At my current location it’s 3 degrees in December 2021. 

[SpaceRace22]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I might be crazy(?), but I think Seattle and Portland could both pull off not only single digits, but below zero temps. Obviously it would take some special blocking and the PV to be favorably placed in western Canada. I really do. I rule out nothing.

I don't think you're crazy. June 2021 really emphasized that we short lived humans have no concept of what an actual outlier is when it comes to extreme events, imo. Portland can absolutely hit 120, and it can absolutely get below 0. Now, will it do so in our lifetimes? Maybe, maybe not. But it almost certainly will some day. Heck, there were 2 ensemble members just a couple days ago that got PDX down to -3F. It's for sure possible.

[lowlandsnow]

I highly doubt Seattle will go below zero in my lifetime but I could see Portland going below zero

[AbbyJr]

Here is a video where Michael Clark with BAM Weather explains the shift today back towards a major SSW/PV split.

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1741572758322999376?s=20

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (4-run trend)