December 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Rubus Leucodermis]

18 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Mostly people saying wow it got to 36 tonight instead of 38 and oh god another 50 burger.

I have been keeping track of ECMWF modelled maximum temperatures, and the 50-burgers are at least for the most part lower 50’s. No upper 50’s threatening to be 60-burgers, at least not for the moment.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I have been keeping track of ECMWF modelled maximum temperatures, and the 50-burgers are at least for the most part lower 50’s. No upper 50’s threatening to be 60-burgers, at least not for the moment.

For the Seattle area and out here in the foothills... the next 7-10 days now looks like mostly an east wind bonanza and dry for the vast majority of the time.    Models were flirting with extended AR events and really warm air.   I like the trend.  

[MossMan]

.60” for the day, 5.86” for the month. 
Currently 37 degrees. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

.60” for the day, 5.86” for the month. 
Currently 37 degrees. 

0.41" for the day, 10.33" for the month.

41.7˚F and clear. Maybe a frost for the first time in nearly a month?

[Meatyorologist]

Mid-late January. It's coming.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Mid-late January. It's coming.

All the extended models show early to mid Jan. Haven’t seen anything good after like the 12th.Best chance looks like around the 8th.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

All the extended models show early to mid Jan. Haven’t seen anything good after like the 12th.Best chance looks like around the 8th.

Usually things are delayed by a week or two.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Doesn’t seem like the worm is turning. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1 (4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 (4-run trend)

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, AbbyJr said:

Agreed. El Niño is very well established and the atmosphere is clearly responding to it.

The good news is that there is a solid chance of a PV displacement or split. But unfortunately, neither is guaranteed yet.

The PV is actually going to be weaker than normal going forward.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The PV is actually going to be weaker than normal going forward.

A January to remember, which, well since 2017 in the PDX area there has been little Winter to be had for the month.

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 49 minutes

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

A January to remember, which, well since 2017 in the PDX area there has been little Winter to be had for the month.

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 49 minutes

January has been a sheit show for years now.  It wouldn't take much to beat the mean pattern we have seen that month.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

January has been a sheit show for years now.  It wouldn't take much to beat the mean pattern we have seen that month.

I want a combo/mix of 1957, 1950, 1969, 1979, 1980, 2004, 2017. Not too much to ask.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 (4-run trend)

[snow_wizard]

Cold onshore flow tonight.  The hardest thing to achieve with a major Nino.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 (4-run trend)

[SnowWillarrive]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Cold onshore flow tonight.  The hardest thing to achieve with a major Nino.

This is what winter should be. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Gradient Keeper]

I tell ya what, for an overall meh run, there is a lot of chilly backdoor air to be had. Not bad. Could be worse. A ton of east wind at times as well.

[Mercurial]

Driving between Roosville, MT and Elko, BC last weekend.  Sort of an interesting display of microclimates, with the second photo being merely 10-15 miles north of the first, and only ~200 feet higher in elevation.  Pretty sure all the snow is gone by now.  

Oh yeah, also Roosville had bighorn sheep along the road seemingly patrolling the Canadian border.  This herd has been hanging out in the area for years.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Mercurial said:

Driving between Roosville, MT and Elko, BC last weekend.  Sort of an interesting display of microclimates, with the second photo being merely 10-15 miles north of the first, and only ~200 feet higher in elevation.  Pretty sure all the snow is gone by now.  

Oh yeah, also Roosville had bighorn sheep along the road seemingly patrolling the Canadian border.  This herd has been hanging out in the area for years.

That looks like a truly beautiful area.

[Deweydog]

Goofy pattern. Useful as a little boy with a plate of burnt biscuits.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some cold air into the center of the country for new years in this run. 

[Mercurial]

6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

That looks like a truly beautiful area.

It is... the Canadian Rockies are insane.  And that's just over the border from Montana.  The landscape justs get more and more rugged as you go northward until you hit the Icefields in southern Jasper.  An absolutely massive tract of jaw dropping alpine scenery.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS re-cap. 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temps, 925mbTemps*newly added, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM(Canadian) 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly. Lookie there! Do I spy a bit of an Aleutian ridge? I think I do.

[Dave]

36 degrees. Nice to see the passes get a few flakes.

People have lost their mind trying to see the local Christmas lights. There was a backup of a 1/2 mile in an area that pretty much has always has light traffic other than for Christmas. Saw someone get rear ended and their car was definitely totaled. 

[Phil]

30 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The PV is actually going to be weaker than normal going forward.

That’s the AO, not a measure of the PV.

[Phil]

GFS is a total failure w/rt the SSW.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Cold onshore flow tonight.  The hardest thing to achieve with a major Nino.

I’m going to be blunt here. The pattern this winter is behaving exactly like a textbook El Niño. There is nothing unusual or special about it. Nothing bizarre or peculiar that would tilt the odds away from what is already evident. It is what it is.

Hit me with the downvotes. It’s all good. Just keeping it real.

[AbbyJr]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

GFS is a total failure w/rt the SSW.

Thankfully it's the GFS showing it.

[Meatyorologist]

Phil has had ENOUGH with our holiday cheer this evening! 

@iFred Want to go ahead and pull the plug? AI-driven atmospheric simulations will soon be accurate enough to render any discussion of the weather a moot point anyways, might as well look smart while you're ahead. Given the SST's in the Pacific our dignity is about the only possession we have left of any value.

[AbbyJr]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

That’s the AO, not a measure of the PV.

True, but correct me if I'm wrong, a -AO is associated with a weak PV.