December 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Slushy Inch]

[Phil]

I think the 12z GFS just bungled the NPAC RWB early on. Doesn’t look quite right.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS is a total disaster in the mid range! 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

I think the 12z GFS is doing something w/ the NPAC RWB early on. Doesn’t look quite right.

GOA ridge is a mess on the 8th compared to last run.

[Phil]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

GOA ridge is a mess on the 8th compared to last run.

Also big move in +AO direction. Gross.

 

[Timmy Supercell]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS is a total disaster in the mid range! 

[Timmy]

Hard to hate the potential here

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Omg it’s the GEM!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Timmy said:

Hard to hate the potential here

I tried, but I CANT hate it!

[ShawniganLake]

14 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Gem is going places. Way better blocking

 

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Major step back on the GEM too. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Also some frost this morning!!! Wintry!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

 

 

Conflicting reports. No it’s worse early, better later! 

[Andstorm]

Isn’t the GEM kind of a joke? being relatively new to forum, i’m surprised how often it’s referenced here.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Andstorm said:

Isn’t the GEM kind of a joke? being relatively new to forum, i’m surprised how often it’s referenced here.

Is it a joke? Idk

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like we are probably 10 days away from anything regionally notable.  
 

dropped to 35F here this morning after a full night of clear skies and calm wind.  Pretty unusual for December 31st. We normally freeze shortly after sunset on a clear night this time of year. 

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Conflicting reports. No it’s worse early, better later! 

Yea. Extrapolating out to day 11 or 12 on the GEM and it might deliver. 

[Snownerd3000]

2 minutes ago, Andstorm said:

Isn’t the GEM kind of a joke? being relatively new to forum, i’m surprised how often it’s referenced here.

I think the GEM is actually regarded higher these days than the GFS. 

[Timmy]

3 minutes ago, Andstorm said:

Isn’t the GEM kind of a joke? being relatively new to forum, i’m surprised how often it’s referenced here.

Nah, it’s pretty solid. Often better than the gfs

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, Andstorm said:

Isn’t the GEM kind of a joke? being relatively new to forum, i’m surprised how often it’s referenced here.

Its skill scores are as good or often better than the GFS through day 5.  After that I think it drops off substantially as most modelling does. 

[westcoastexpat]

3 minutes ago, Andstorm said:

Isn’t the GEM kind of a joke? being relatively new to forum, i’m surprised how often it’s referenced here.

It has better verification scores than the GFS now, but not as good as the ECMWF

In order of skill:

1. ECMWF

2. GEM

3. GFS

[Phil]

JokeFS

[Phil]

This is why I hate the GFS. It’ll randomly lose the plot right as the pattern starts to get interesting, then cling to the ugly solution until the last possible minute, at which point it’ll usually cave but have already sucked the air out of the room because it runs 4X/day and is posted everywhere because every weenie has access to it.

I really hope it gets decommissioned or sold to the private sector.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Welp it’s over. Cancel winter!

 

[Andstorm]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

This is why I hate the GFS. It’ll randomly lose the plot right as the pattern starts to get interesting, then cling to the ugly solution until the last possible minute, at which point it’ll usually cave but have already sucked the air out of the room because it runs 4X/day and is posted everywhere because every weenie has access to it.

I really hope it gets decommissioned or sold to the private sector.

So are you suggesting the more favorable cold pattern is in fact the likely correct one, or that the GFS was overly bullish and is now correcting itself? 

[Andstorm]

18 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

It has better verification scores than the GFS now, but not as good as the ECMWF

In order of skill:

1. ECMWF

2. GEM

3. GFS

interesting. I’ve always sort of dismissed canadian since the ensemble temps always seem way too cold and infrequently verify. But that’s not exactly an indictment on its ability to recognize general patterns. 

[RentonHill]

Just now, Andstorm said:

interesting. I’ve always sort of dismissed canadian since the ensemble temps always seem way too cold and infrequently verify. But that’s not exactly an indictment on its ability to recognize general patterns. 

I think the GEM can sometimes resemble the Euro at the 500mb level. But it always seems to get anything below that including 850s  and surface details horrendously off. It seems very generous with extremes. 

[Front Ranger]

25 minutes ago, Phil said:

This is why I hate the GFS. It’ll randomly lose the plot right as the pattern starts to get interesting, then cling to the ugly solution until the last possible minute, at which point it’ll usually cave but have already sucked the air out of the room because it runs 4X/day and is posted everywhere because every weenie has access to it.

I really hope it gets decommissioned or sold to the private sector.

All global models are bad past day 8, and the worst one is allowed to run out 15 days

But hey...pretty maps are half the fun for many weenies.

[RCola]

GFS rug pulls are honestly more predictable these days than the actual weather. The script never changes: Step 1. A 24 hour build-up of increasingly better runs culminating in a ridiculous 00z op run, Step 2. cracks in the 06z ensembles, and Step 3. an off-the-rails 12z op run. It's like clockwork.

 

If this cold outbreak is meant to be, the next phase of the script will be for the ECMWF and CMC to improve at 12z. We've already seen the CMC follow the script. Let's see what happens with ECMWF. Also, what has UKMET and ICON been showing?

[SouthHillFrosty]

Needs a little work 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

No mention of the end of the 12zGFS....?

Cold end too!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Long range GFS tries. 

[Snownerd3000]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensembles tanking too. Ugh. Devastating trends today!

[ShawniganLake]

29 minutes ago, Andstorm said:

So are you suggesting the more favorable cold pattern is in fact the likely correct one, or that the GFS was overly bullish and is now correcting itself? 

Apart from a couple of rogue GFS runs we haven’t seen anything within the 10’day range to suggest that arctic air is likely west of the Cascades.  Temps could be decently below average by next weekend at least.  

[Slushy Inch]

Gefs

[Slushy Inch]

Gefs is making eps from last night look better

[RayRay]

I think an inch in downtown Seattle is guaranteed…

[Deweydog]

Let’s all do our best to pick Andrew up during his darkest day.

We find strength in God and each other.  

[van city]

4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Gefs

When Jim start acting like an 11 year old with a keyboard, that's what happens. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Let’s all do our best to pick Andrew up during his darkest day.

We find strength in God and each other.  

With a little prayer I will be fine, just disappointing we couldn't pretend for a few more dayz.